Sunday's Best NBA Bets
Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors (+1.5, 207)
The Dallas Mavericks have a unique scorer in 7-foot, German sniper Dirk Nowitzki. It has been his success at the NBA level that has led to many other talented European players making the jump to the pros.
Perhaps the one player cut from the same cloth as Nowitzki is Toronto Raptors forward and former No.1-overall pick, Andrea Bargnani.
The 7-foot Italian is only a center on the scoresheet. He scored 24 points for the Raptors in a 112-104 win over the New York Knicks Friday – netting 5-of-6 shots from beyond the arc.
Bargnani’s performance came on a night when three Italian-born players were on the rosters. Bargnani and teammate Marco Belinelli were joined by Knicks forward Danilo Gallinari.
"I was excited about it, because it's something special for me," Bargnani told the Toronto Star. "It's the first time that three Italian players (could have) played together in an NBA game ... so you want to look good, you want to do something good."
Bargnani has not only been a scoring force for Toronto but has also picked up his work on the glass, totaling 29 rebounds in the past two games.
Pick: Raptors
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets (N/A)
The third time is the charm for Nuggets guard Chauncey Billups.
According to the Denver Post, the veteran point guard is at his best immediately after the half. Billups, who scores just under 18 points per game, is averaging seven points in the third quarter this season – seventh in third-quarter scoring in the NBA.
"The first half, it's not that I'm not shooting at all, but I'm looking to see how they're playing certain plays and when I can break off the play and when not," Billups told reporters. "And then at halftime, when I can watch back and watch a couple plays on film, I can be more aggressive and say, 'This is what I'm going to get on this play, this is where my opportunity opens up.' "
He scored 12 of his 24 points in the third quarter of Wednesday’s win over the Orlando Magic. Since returning from a groin injury, which kept him out five games, Billups is averaging 9.5-third quarter points in those four games.
"Coach shows what (the opponent) is giving up (at halftime)," reserve point guard Ty Lawson told the media, "and Chauncey does exactly what they're giving him — either make a shot or get into the paint. He gets us started in the third quarter. If he doesn't get started, it's hard for us to get going."
Billups will be needed in all four quarters Sunday. Lawson is nursing an injured ankle and is questionable against the Jazz. Veteran point guard Anthony Carter will get more time if Lawson is unable to play.
Pick: Nuggets
Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors
The Dallas Mavericks and the Toronto Raptors will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Air Canada Centre.
Dirk Nowitzki dropped 32 points and grabbed five rebounds on Friday, as the Mavericks slipped past the Thunder 99-98. The Mavericks failed to cover the 5-point spread, while the 197 points went UNDER the posted total of 196.
Jason Terry had 21 points in the win, while Jason Kidd had 11 points with 11 assists.
The Raptors snapped a two-game losing skid with a 112-104 victory over the Knicks on Friday, as 2-point underdogs. That game's 216 points made it OVER the posted total of 210.5.
Andrea Bargnani netted 24 points and hauled in 12 boards to finish with a double-double for the Raptors. Jose Calderon chipped in with 21 points and six assists.
Team records:
Dallas: 26-13 SU, 18-21 ATS
Toronto: 20-20 SU, 19-21 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 8-2
Before playing Boston are 8-2
After playing Oklahoma City are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 3-7
Before playing Cleveland are 6-4
After playing New York are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Dallas is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Next up:
Dallas at Boston, Monday, January 18
Toronto at Cleveland, Tuesday, January 19
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
The fans at Pepsi Center will be treated to a game between the Utah Jazz and the Denver Nuggets when they take their seats on Sunday.
The Jazz got big play from their frontcourt in a 112-95 win over the Bucks at EnergySolutions Arena Saturday.
Utah covered as a 10.5-point home favorite while the final score played OVER the 195-point total.
Carmelo Anthony netted 27 points and hauled down seven rebounds on Wednesday, as the Nuggets cruised past the Magic 115-97. The Nuggets covered the 6-point spread, and the 212 points made it OVER the posted total of 209.5.
Chauncey Billups collected 24 points and dished out five assists for the Nuggets. J.R. Smith added 17 points in that win.
Current streak:
Utah has won 4 straight games.
Denver has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Utah: 23-17 SU, 23-16-1 ATS
Denver: 25-14 SU, 18-20-1 ATS
Utah most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing San Antonio are 5-5
After playing Milwaukee are 5-5
After a win are 5-5
Denver most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Golden State are 7-3
After playing Orlando are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games when playing Denver
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Utah is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Utah
Denver is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Utah at San Antonio, Wednesday, January 20
Denver at Golden State, Wednesday, January 20
NBA RoundUp For 1/17
By Dan Bebe
Mavericks @ Raptors - Mavs by 1.5 with a total of 206. This one looks too easy; I hate that. The Mavs are almost unbeatable ATS on the road, but they've been struggling mightily, so it's up to us to figure out how the public feels about these teams, because that's really the ultimate note we need on this game. I know how I feel, and I feel like the Mavs' home struggles are of no huge concern to me. This is not a team you generally want to fade on the road, as they're 13-6 ATS away from home, and every time you expect them to lose, they destroy. Of course, every time you think they should win, they crumble. So, where do we stand? Do we think they should win this game? I would wager that yes, yes we do, despite the Raptors recent run of solid basketball. And that's what makes Toronto all that much more appealing. The Raps are fairly streaky right now, so the fact that they finished up a short 2-game road "jaunt" with a win in New York bodes extremely well. The fact that the Mavs somehow managed to squeeze past the Oklahoma City Thunder should also give bettors enough confidence to still take a long look at the Mavs, and that's precisely what we want when we look at the opposing team. This is a nice spot for Toronto due to the time of the game, as well. The early Sunday Canada game generally creates something of a lazy air, which is often better for the offensive-minded club, as I feel the Mavs have a fairly long travel schedule, then a supremely early game, and might not wake up fast enough. Dallas plays in Boston tomorrow (Monday), so this is also a look-ahead spot for Dirk and company. Maybe the final Toronto boost is the revenge factor. Very early this season the Raptors visited Dallas and got shellacked by 28 points in an extremely high-scoring game. This is a great spot for the suddenly gelling Raptors to show the strides they've made, and I feel like they're also catching Dallas in a little lull. I lean to Toronto. There isn't much of a pattern on totals in these Sunday early games, other than that Toronto seems to score their fair share. The line on this game is fair given the way the previous meeting went, and I'd prefer to avoid the total in a game where we might see a quarter of zero focus - too much guessing for my taste.
Jazz @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. Interesting match-up here, with Utah heading from altitude to altitude on the tail end of a back-to-back. I believe, then, that the 2 point adjustment we'll see from the books should be plenty, given Utah's comfort with playing well above sea level. So where is the value, then, if we can't go with a "system" play? Well, one angle worth noting is that these division rivals have already squared off twice this year, and Denver has delivered a merciless clubbing in both games, winning by 9, covering a 5-point spread, and by 10 in Utah as a 7.5-point dog. So, Utah has the double-revenge going. Obviously, as discussed above, Denver has rest on their side, though Utah's game with Milwaukee wasn't exactly a barn-burner. Still, Utah is due for a little bit of a letdown after the huge win against Cleveland, and the cruising victory over the Bucks. I really do not like the contradicting angles. So far, I'm sitting on a pass, but let's keep going. The first game finished at a robust 219 points, well Over the 209 mark set for the game. The next one slipped just beneath ("Under") a 201.5 posted total. I'll be very curious to see where this one opens up. Denver is a perfect 3-0 this season on 3 days of rest, and have scored an average of 116 points in those spots. I expect we'll see the Nuggets running this thing up and down the floor, aware of Utah's potential for fatigue, and fully utilizing their athleticism and 3 days of rest. This is the kind of game where there are so many situational trends butting each other in the head, that it might be best to just dodge the side. Gun to my head, I like Denver despite the double-revenge, as I see the Jazz starting to reach and if Denver can take care of the ball (I trust Chauncey in this spot), they should be trotting to the free throw line all night long. On that note, I like the Over, though we'll see where the line is set. Denver's scored over 100 points in 3 straight, and 6 of 7 in January, so seeing them get to 110 isn't out of the question; the issue is whether Utah can hold up their end of the bargain. Let's wait on a line, but again, I like Denver a little, and the Over only a tiny bit more than the side.
Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer
Jazz at Nuggets - The Jazz are 0-9 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since December 15, 1995 on the road after a home win in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Jazz are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since November 09, 2008 after a win in which Carlos Boozer had more turnovers than assists. The Jazz are 0-7 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since March 23, 2007 after a home win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four. The Jazz are 0-6 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since March 24, 2004 as a dog after a win in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (5.8 ppg) since November 11, 2008 after a home win in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.
Mavericks at Raptors - The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS (-14.8 ppg) since April 13, 2008 on the road as a favorite after winning the previous matchup in which Jason Kidd took fewer than 10 shots. The Raptors are 0-13 ATS (-6.1 ppg) since November 05, 2006 as a home dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Raptors are 0-8-1 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since February 03, 2009 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-15.9 ppg) since January 27, 2007 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.