Sunday's Best NBA Bets
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-8, 205)
The bench can be power or poison for a player.
Some guys can sink even deeper down the depth chart while some, like New York’s Nate Robinson, unleash that pent up energy once given the opportunity.
The Knicks sparkplug point guard, who was benched for 14 games, erupted for 41 points in a 112-108 overtime victory against the Atlanta Hawks Friday night.
“It wasn’t that I was trying to go out there and prove a point,” Robinson told the New York Times. “I just love to play the game of basketball. This is the only way I know how to play it, which is at my speed.”
Robinson hadn’t played since Dec. 2 after coach Mike D’Antoni benched him for what is being reported as behavioral issues. The Knicks went 8-6 in that span, covering the spread in seven of those 14 games.
“I can’t see what would have happened if I didn’t do it,” D’Antoni told reporters. “When I did it we were struggling. And then we had the best month we’ve had here in eight years, so would we have had a better month? I don’t know that. But we’re going forward. There’s no use looking back now.”
Friday’s win was New York’s second win in the past three games. Now, the team returns from that three-game road swing to host the Pacers, who lost 110-103 to the Knicks at home back in November.
Pick: Knicks
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5, 199.5)
Kobe Bryant’s late-game heroics make for great sports highlights. But for basketball bettors, they are just painful slaps in the face. Los Angeles’ spreads have become so soggy with public perception, it has become nearly impossible to bet on the defending NBA champs.
Bryant gave the Lakers their 26th win of the season with a buzzer beater 3-pointer against the Sacramento Kings Friday. Los Angeles won 109-108 but fell well short of covering the 12-point spread. That was the team’s third straight ATS loss and bumped the Lakers to just 13-19 against the spread this season.
Recently, it’s been the team’s defense that has plagued backers. Los Angeles has allowed opponents to score just under 110 points over the last six games – posting a 1-5 mark against the spread. The absence of defensive stalwart Ron Artest could have a lot to do with that lack of intensity. He’s not expected to return until next week while nursing a concussion.
The Mavericks won their most recent meeting with the Lakers, taking a 94-80 win as 7.5-point road underdogs back in October. It was Dallas’ third straight cover against L.A. and the seventh time it has covered the spread in the last 10 contests with the Lakers.
Pick: Mavericks
NBA RoundUp For 1/3
By Dan Bebe
Pacers @ Knicks - Knicks by 8 with a total of 205. My my, this is quite a large spread for a team that hasn't really shown itself to be a "blow-teams-out" sort of club! Still, the Knicks are so hit-or-miss with their pattern of outside shooting that it seems like when they play well for anywhere from 30-40 minutes of the 48-minute game, they have a decent shot to pick up a win. I find this spread interesting as the Knicks have never, all season long, been a favorite of this magnitude. This spread likely would have been -6 had the Pacers not beaten up on Minnesota last night, but oddsmakers are assuming some significant fatigue on the part of the undermanned Indiana club, and they're more than likely correct. To say Indiana is shorthanded is the understatement of the year -- even in a blowout win over the Wolves, Indy used just 9 players, and they remain without the services of Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Jeff Foster, T.J. Ford and Tyler Hansbrough. The fact that they won last night against Minnesota is not that surprising, though, as these patchwork clubs often find a way to get fired up when a low-level team comes to town that they know they've got a shot to beat, and that's just what we saw. Now, though, the Pacers have to take on a resurgent Knicks club that posted a solid 9-6 record in the month of December, and won their 2010 debut over the Hawks, in Atlanta. I'm a little concerned that the Knicks will suffer a letdown in this game, coming home off such a big road win, but at the same time, I think the Pacers might suffer a similar letdown going into a tougher place to play after finally scratching across a win at home. This game has "line movement play" written all over it. If indeed this line is "high for a reason", I would expect to see an early shift to 8.5, and conversely, if oddsmakers just overvalued the Knicks because of their road win, I think 7.5 will jump across at us first. The total of 205 is already up 2 points from the Opening line, so it's clear sharps think this one gets moving at a decent clip, and why not? The Pacers have gone Over in 3 straight, and the Knicks defense has devolved a bit in their last 2 games, though they've scored enough to win 1 of those 2.
Spurs @ Raptors - This line is OFF. I'll tell you right now, I will not go against the Spurs unless there is some serious line movement or insane value that makes me change my mind. That is to say, this team, San Antonio, heads in Toronto on the second half of a back-to-back (they won last night in Washington and covered). They've now won, and covered, 5 straight games, and to say they're surging just isn't giving enough credit. We spoke at length in yesterday's blog about how much Manu Ginobili improves this team, and it may be more obvious on the road than anywhere else. His teammates can shoot the ball just fine at home, so they don't really need his boost, but on the road, where free throws, easy buckets, and defense win games, Ginobili is a gamechanger. I expect to see the Spurs as small road favorites in this one, since Toronto is on the second night of a back-to-back, too. The Raptors, though, are off a loss in Boston, despite the Celtics playing without 3/4 of their relevant ballers. I don't put a ton of stock in that loss, though, since the Raptors have been awful on the road all year. They have been better at home all year, and even collected 5 straight wins before the loss last night in Beantown. I fear this may be the start of a short losing streak for Toronto, and even though the Spurs are generally pretty awful on back-to-backs, because of age, I have to lean in their direction. It's easier to ride a hot streak than to try to pick the day it ends, and that's how I'm handling this one. I also think we see a total near 200, and I lean slightly to the Under.
Bobcats @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 10.5 with a total of 185.5. This game is a low-value one, in my opinion. I certainly start by checking out the Bobcats getting that many points, but with both teams on the second night of a back-to-back, the road team is going to be hampered much more than the home club, who are often inspired by the crowd noise. I'd say it's a positive for our road dog lean that Charlotte played in the afternoon yesterday, so they have had a little more time to recover, and the nice road win over the Heat should help propel them to at least a decent first half. Once again we are staring down the barrel of an inflated line, and we have to determine if the line is as large as it is for a reason, or because the Cavs are just overvalued. I am inclined to believe that, on this game, it's because the Cavs keep dominating (though they failed to cover last night in Jersey in an 8-point win). The Bobcats road woes are far from over, but I think the win in Miami was a solid jumping-off point, and I think they at least give the Cavs a "test", and lose by close to 10. This line is without huge value on either side, though again, I lean to the underdog. This total looks terribly low, even though both teams are technically defensive clubs. I really wouldn't be surprised to see the teams, both on back-to-backs, go a little easier on the defensive end, and the recent ability of the Cavs to get some easy buckets makes me think this one just reaches over 190. Let's keep an eye on it.
Sixers @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. The Nuggets really came through in a tough spot last night with a win in Utah without the services of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, but winning two games on a back-to-back is rarely easy when you're lacking such key pieces. Still, I hate to think that the value here is with the tired road Nuggets, but until we see this line and actually know who's playing, it's tough to argue any real point. When there are so many guys that may or may not play, I usually just like to skip the game altogether. It's just not worth the risk. Playing totals when injured players are returning after a long layoff is often the best move, but 'Melo hasn't missed much time, and Chauncey is the type of player that helps the team score, even if he himself isn't doing much, so this game is just a FULL PASS for me. Short write-up, I know, but this is value wasteland. Let's move on.
Mavs @ Lakers - Lakers by 6.5 with a total of 199.5. Another spot where a player injury is going to have a fairly large impact. The Lakers have, since the acquisition of Pau Gasol, generally given the Mavs fits -- that is, until early this year. Dallas rolled into LA on the second day of the regular season and beat the Lakers 94-80, and you can bet Kobe remembers. I can't help but think the Lakers snap their 3-game ATS losing streak (they're 2-1 SU in those games) with an 8-point win over the Mavs. Dallas beat a banged up Sacramento team last night, but I must admit, I'm a little surprised to see this line at just 6.5 even though Dallas is on a back-to-back. That Lakers lean feels a little tainted with a line this low. In fact, the more I stare at it, the more I think that unless this line moves up to 7 or 7.5, I don't think I could pull the trigger on the suddenly defenseless Kobe and co. Will LA get their act together and play some hard-nosed basketball without Ron Artest? It just doesn't appear that way, as Kobe seems to need to one-up himself on a nightly basis just to get the Lakers a SU win. What a conundrum! On the total, I think the poor defense rears its ugly head again. If the Lakers win, they're going to outscore the Mavs, and I think Dallas puts up a nice offensive game. Jason Terry usually plays especially well against the big foes. I lean Over.
Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer
Bobcats at Cavaliers - The Bobcats are 10-0-1 ATS (13.5 ppg) since March 04, 2008 off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The League is 0-9 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since January 07, 2009 as a dog with no rest after a double digit win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Bobcats are 8-0-1 ATS (11.3 ppg) since April 04, 2007 on the road with no rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Cavaliers are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since November 19, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
Pacers at Knicks - The Pacers are 0-8-1 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since March 09, 2003 with no rest when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since March 19, 1997 with no rest after a home win in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The League is 7-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since April 05, 2008 as a road dog when seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite in which they led by a least fifteen points. The Knicks are 0-7 ATS (-4.4 ppg) since March 16, 2004 at home off a win as a dog in which they trailed by 15+ points. The Knicks are 7-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since March 07, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Mavericks at Lakers - The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since November 01, 1997 as a road dog with no rest after a game on the road after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent. The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since March 11, 2007 on the road versus the Lakers. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since February 26, 2004 at home off a win in which they trailed by double digits at the half.
Sixers at Nuggets - The League is 8-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since January 31, 2009 after a double digit road loss in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. The Sixers are 7-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since November 10, 1995 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they blocked at least 10 shots. The Sixers are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since December 01, 2004 with two or more days of rest off a loss as an away dog in which they led by 10+ points. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since March 15, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Spurs at Raptors - The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since December 19, 2001 with no rest off a win as an away favorite in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The League is 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since January 19, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a double digit road win in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since February 16, 2003 with at most one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a four-game winning streak.