Phoenix Suns vs. Toronto Raptors
The Phoenix Suns and the Toronto Raptors will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Air Canada Centre.
The Suns jumped out to an early lead and tore apart the Timberwolves 120-95 on Friday. The Suns covered the 9.5-point spread, while the 215 points made it OVER the posted total of 214.5.
Jason Richardson led the Suns with 22 points, Grant Hill added 17 and Steve Nash dished out 11 assists in the win.
The Raptors were defeated 116-103 by the Celtics last time out as a 9.5-point underdog. That game's combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 203.5.
Chris Bosh scored a double-double with 20 points and 13 rebounds in the loss.
Current streak:
Phoenix has won 3 straight games.
Toronto has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Phoenix: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS
Toronto: 7-10 SU, 8-9 ATS
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing New York are 8-2
After playing Minnesota are 7-3
After a win are 7-3
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 2-8
Before playing Washington are 5-5
After playing Boston are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Phoenix is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Next up:
Phoenix at New York, Tuesday, December 1
Toronto home to Washington, Tuesday, December 1
Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons
The Atlanta Hawks and the Detroit Pistons will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
Jamal Crawford went for 24 points and four rebounds as the Hawks defeated the 76ers 100-86 on Friday. The Hawks covered the 5.5-point spread, while the 186 points went UNDER the posted total of 198.
Mike Bibby scored 21 points for the Hawks, who also got 20 points from Josh Smith.
Jonas Jerebko shot 8-for-11 from the field with 22 points and five rebounds in the Pistons 104-96 loss to the Clippers on Friday, as 4-point favorites at home. That game's 200 points sailed OVER the posted total of 181.
Current streak:
Detroit has lost 7 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS
Detroit: 5-11 SU, 8-8 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing Toronto are 5-5
After playing Philadelphia are 5-5
After a win are 7-3
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing Chicago are 3-7
After playing LA Clippers are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Atlanta is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games
Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
Next up:
Atlanta home to Toronto, Wednesday, December 2
Detroit at Chicago, Wednesday, December 2
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Clippers
The Memphis Grizzlies and the Los Angeles Clippers will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at STAPLES Center.
Marc Gasol scored 19 points and grabbed 15 rebounds for a double-double on Friday, as the Grizzlies defeated the Trail Blazers 106-96. The Grizzlies won the game as a 11.5-point underdog, while the 202 points made it OVER the posted total of 195.
Zach Randolph collected 21 points, while O.J. Mayo had 19 in the win.
Baron Davis dropped 25 points and dished out 10 assists in leading the Clippers over the Pistons 104-96 on Friday. The Clippers won the game as a 4-point underdog, while the 200 points sailed OVER the posted total of 181.
Chris Kaman added a game-high 26 points to go with seven rebounds in that win.
Team records:
Memphis: 6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS
Los Angeles: 7-10 SU, 5-12 ATS
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 2-8
Before playing Utah are 0-10
After playing Portland are 1-9
After a win are 5-5
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing Houston are 2-8
After playing Detroit are 3-7
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Memphis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
LA Clippers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing at home against Memphis
Next up:
Memphis at Utah, Monday, November 30
LA Clippers home to Houston, Wednesday, December 2
Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks
The Orlando Magic and the New York Knicks will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Madison Square Garden.
The Magic stormed back in the second half and held on for a hard-fought 100-98 win over the Bucks on Saturday. The Magic failed to cover the 6.5-point spread, while the 198 points made it OVER the posted total of 196.
Dwight Howard led the Magic with 25 points and 20 rebounds for a double-double. Vince Carter also chipped in with 25 points in the win.
Al Harrington had a double-double with 41 points and 10 rebounds in the Knicks 128-125 loss to the Nuggets on Friday as a 12.5-point favorite. That game's combined 253 points sailed OVER the posted total of 219.
Current streak:
Orlando has won 2 straight games.
New York has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Orlando: 13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS
New York: 3-13 SU, 7-9 ATS
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 4-6
Before playing New York are 7-3
After playing Milwaukee are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
New York most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 3-7
Before playing Phoenix are 4-6
After playing Denver are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing New York
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games
Next up:
Orlando home to New York, Wednesday, December 2
New York home to Phoenix, Tuesday, December 1
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Six players reached double figures as the Celtics defeated the Raptors 116-103 on Friday. The Celtics covered the 9.5-point spread, and the combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 203.5.
Ray Allen had 20 points for the Celtics, while Paul Pierce netted 18 points with five rebounds.
The Heat were defeated 94-84 by the Wizards on Friday as a 7-point favorite. The teams played UNDER that game's posted total of 198.5.
Jermaine O'Neal collected a double-double with 19 points and 13 rebounds in the loss.
Current streak:
Boston has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Boston: 12-4 SU, 6-10 ATS
Miami: 9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing Charlotte are 8-2
After playing Toronto are 8-2
After a win are 7-3
Miami most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 3-7
Before playing Portland are 4-6
After playing Washington are 1-9
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Miami
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
Miami is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games at home
Next up:
Boston at Charlotte, Tuesday, December 1
Miami at Portland, Tuesday, December 1
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Ford Center.
Luis Scola collected 18 points and 12 rebounds for a double-double in the Rockets 92-84 loss to the Spurs on Friday, as a pick'em. That game's 176 points went UNDER the posted total of 195.
The Thunder took control in the second half and closed out a 108-90 victory over the Bucks on Friday. The Thunder covered the 5-point spread, while the 198 points made it OVER the posted total of 196.5.
Kevin Durant poured in a game-high 33 points to go with 12 rebounds for a double-double in the win.
Current streak:
Houston has lost 2 straight games.
Oklahoma City has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Houston: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
Oklahoma City: 9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS
Houston most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 8-2
Before playing LA Clippers are 5-5
After playing San Antonio are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 3-7
Before playing Philadelphia are 5-5
After playing Milwaukee are 2-8
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oklahoma City's last 19 games at home
Next up:
Houston at LA Clippers, Wednesday, December 2
Oklahoma City home to Philadelphia, Wednesday, December 2
Philadelphia 76ers vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Philadelphia 76ers and the San Antonio Spurs will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at AT&T Center.
Andre Iguodala had 16 points, nine rebounds and eight assists in the 76ers 100-86 loss to the Hawks on Friday. The 76ers were 5.5-point underdogs in that game, and the 186 points went UNDER the posted total of 198.
Tim Duncan had 21 points and 12 rebounds for a double-double on Friday, as the Spurs defeated the Rockets 92-84. The Spurs won the game as a pick'em, while the 176 points went UNDER the posted total of 195.
Tony Parker had 19 points and dished out seven assists, while Antonio McDyess had a double-double with 15 points and 14 rebounds in the win.
Current streak:
Philadelphia has lost 5 straight games.
San Antonio has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS
San Antonio: 8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 3-7
Before playing Dallas are 5-5
After playing Atlanta are 6-4
After a loss are 4-6
San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 3-7
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing Houston are 8-2
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Next up:
Philadelphia at Dallas, Monday, November 30
San Antonio home to Boston, Thursday, December 3
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Denver Nuggets will meet on the court at Pepsi Center on Sunday in a battle of division rivals.
The Timberwolves were defeated 120-95 by the Suns last time out, as 9.5-point underdogs. That game's 215 points made it OVER the posted total of 214.5.
Ramon Sessions scored 23 points for Minnesota, while Al Jefferson had 20 in a losing effort.
Carmelo Anthony poured in a game-high 50 points to power the Nuggets to a 128-125 win over the Knicks on Friday. The Nuggets could not cover the 12.5-point spread, while the combined 253 points sailed OVER the posted total of 219.
Chauncey Billups added 32 points for the Nuggets, and J.R. Smith collected 17 in the win.
Current streak:
Minnesota has lost 15 straight games.
Denver has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Minnesota: 1-15 SU, 4-11-1 ATS
Denver: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
Before playing Memphis are 4-6
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a loss are 0-10
Denver most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Golden State are 9-1
After playing New York are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Minnesota's last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Next up:
Minnesota home to Memphis, Wednesday, December 2
Denver home to Golden State, Tuesday, December 1
New Jersey Nets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The New Jersey Nets and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at STAPLES Center.
The Nets were defeated 109-96 by the Kings last time out as a 4-point underdog. The combined score made it OVER the posted total of 195.
Brook Lopez collected a double-double with 24 points and 11 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.
Pau Gasol dropped in 22 points with 12 rebounds for a double-double on Saturday, as the Lakers defeated the Warriors 130-97. The Lakers covered the 9-point spread, while the 227 points made it OVER the posted total of 222.
Kobe Bryant chipped in with 20 points, six rebounds and six assists in the win.
Current streak:
New Jersey has lost 16 straight games.
Los Angeles has won 5 straight games.
Team records:
New Jersey: 0-16 SU, 5-10-1 ATS
Los Angeles: 12-3 SU, 7-8 ATS
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing Dallas are 3-7
After playing Sacramento are 5-5
After a loss are 0-10
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing New Orleans are 10-0
After playing Golden State are 8-2
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New Jersey's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Jersey's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
New Jersey is 5-11 SU in their last 16 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home
LA Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New Jersey
LA Lakers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing New Jersey
Next up:
New Jersey home to Dallas, Wednesday, December 2
LA Lakers home to New Orleans, Tuesday, December 1
New Orleans Hornets vs. Sacramento Kings
The New Orleans Hornets and the Sacramento Kings will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at ARCO Arena.
David West scored 27 points and grabbed 10 rebounds to lift the Hornets over the Bucks 102-99 in overtime on Wednesday night.
New Orleans covered as 2.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 201.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
The Kings handed New Jersey a 16th straight loss with a 109-96 victory over the Nets on Friday. The Kings covered the 4-point spread, and the combined score made it OVER the posted total of 195.
Tyreke Evans netted 21 points and hauled down seven rebounds to lead the Kings. Beno Udrih also chipped in with 19 points in the win.
Current streak:
Sacramento has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
New Orleans: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS
Sacramento: 7-8 SU, 10-5 ATS
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 8-2
Before playing LA Lakers are 8-2
After playing Milwaukee are 7-3
After a win are 2-8
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 4-6
Before playing Indiana are 6-4
After playing New Jersey are 6-4
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Sacramento is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Sacramento is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
New Orleans at LA Lakers, Tuesday, December 1
Sacramento home to Indiana, Wednesday, December 2
NBA RoundUp for 11/29
by Dan Bebe
I had a lot of bad luck, and while I'm not sure it's done, it's nice to get a few easy ones. The big play a few days back on Charlotte, and then last night another large play winner on Utah have me feeling my oats. Alright, enough of that mess. Huge NBA card, for a Sunday, so no time to waste, not when we've got a full NFL card to take care of, as well!
Sports Wagering
Pistons/Hawks - This line is OFF, and one can only imagine unless Detroit gets SOMEONE back from the infirmary, they'd probably prefer the game gets called. Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are all out, and while none is expected to be at full strength, word is that Ben Gordon might make his return. Even if he does, how effective will he be? I don't like backing the Pistons here, as they are just out of offensive options. Charlie Villanueva, Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum do not an offense make. Heck, they lost to the Clippers on their home floor in the last one. I expect the Hawks, who snapped a short 2-game losing streak with a decisive road win over the injury-plagued 76ers, to take it to the Pistons. Atlanta doesn't have another game until December 2, so there's no real look-ahead concerns, and really, the only thing that may hold them back would be taking the Pistons somewhat lightly. I don't expect Atlanta to fall into that trap. They know they're significantly better at home, so every win during the regular season is huge. They're not tired yet, and I just can't envision the Pistons putting up enough points to compete. I think Detroit will get sucked into a higher-scoring game than they'd like, as well, and I think this total could approach 200. Line should be out tomorrow around podcast time, and we'll make a play then.
Raptors/Suns - Holy moly, Raptors getting 2 points at home with a total of 230! There is almost zero chance I make a play on this game. Every time Phoenix goes on the road, they impress, while Toronto is a team I love to back at home because of their ridiculous home/road splits so far. But here we have those two trends going head-to-head, never a good spot to pick a side. I like the Suns by just a point or two, but Toronto could easily shoot 60% and win by 15, which makes this game way too hectic and unpredictable to be worth my time and energy. In terms of the total, we're talking about two teams that play zero defense. The Suns are scoring up around 120 points over their last 3 games, which has caused this total to balloon. Like I said, I just really do not like wagering on games like this one. If I have a change of heart, I'll be sure to let people know.
Clippers/Grizzlies - Clippers as a favorite...uh oh. LA is laying a staggering 3.5 points at home with a total of 200 on the nose. Interesting match-up from a betting standpoint, not a game I'd want to watch, though. The Clippers are getting healthy, aside from Blake Griffin, who probably isn't all that far from getting back on the court, too, and their improving health is showing on the court. Al Thornton has his legs back, Eric Gordon is trying to round himself back into basketball shape, and with Chris Kaman and Baron Davis developing a rapport at long last, this team is finding ways to win against the mediocre teams of the NBA. They've won 3 of 4 and are somehow just 7-10 despite playing like a 3-14 team at times. Alright, so the Clippers are playing better, and that's why we're seeing the 3.5-point favorite line, but is there any real value in this one. Memphis is coming off an impressive road win over the Portland Trailblazers, and this team has quietly been playing much better basketball, too. They also beat the Clippers by 15, 2 weeks ago in Memphis, and lost to the Clippers by 3 in LA a couple weeks before that. I don't like a side in this game, since both clubs are playing a bit better than earlier this season. Memphis has played 5 consecutive Overs, though, so perhaps there's a little value there -- the previous meeting in LA hit a total of 223.
Knicks/Magic - Knicks getting 6.5 at home with a total of 205. This is a tough spot, here. The Knicks played their butts off in Denver, but came up just short, and generally, a team coming off a tough, hard-fought loss is a spot where I'd prefer to fade, but with the Knicks, they had just played two TERRIBLE games before finally showing some signs of life in that Denver contest. Thus, I'd be more inclined to think that perhaps it was the START of a decent stretch of basketball, and not the end. Of course, on the other hand, New York returns home after an 0-3 road trip across parts of the West coast, and then the Rocky Mountains. So New York is something of a toss-up. The Magic, on the other hand, have been remarkably consistent, even without their starting point guard. Orlando fell behind by a good sum against the Bucks, but managed to come back and win the game SU while failing to cover. Still, it was a nice gut-check, and you have to think that was the Magic's weak effort over the next couple days. I get the sensation they'll continue to play hard in this game against New York, and with Dwight Howard getting healthier by the day, I'm not sure the Knicks stand a chance. Time will tell on this play. I don't like the total due to some of the reasons listed above.
Heat/Celtics - Heat getting 4 at home to the struggling Celtics with a total of 187.5. Boston finally covered one, and you have to wonder if that's the start of things 'evening out', or if that was just a situation where Boston got to play Toronto not in Canada, and a cover was the easy result. Before that, the Celtics had lost 7 straight covers, and they are now 6-10 ATS this season. It seems like it might be time for things to start coming back to the median. Based on math, I'd lean Celtics. Based on recent play, I'd rather not watch this game. Like I noted, Boston has been struggling, and their defense has been the biggest problem. Boston has given up over 100 points in the last 3 straight games, after allowing 100+ in just 2 of the first 13. The Heat have been suffering from a similar case of Raptoritis. After starting the year 6-1, they're now just 9-6, and only 1 of the 3 recent wins would even come close to qualifying as "good." They beat the Nets at home by 1, the Hornets at home by 1, and then the Magic on the road, also by 1. So what we're seeing is that if the Heat can take a game to the final possession, they're in okay shape, but if the game is decided before then, they're going to get blasted. I realize because Boston is Boston, they are always going to be a bad value, but I don't think the Heat stand a chance in this one. Lean to the Celts, and lean to the Over.
Spurs/Sixers - San Antonio by 10.5 with a total of 194. This line looks horrible to me, and I'll tell you why. The Spurs seem to have suddenly figured out their team defense, and the oddsmakers have reacted in record time. After this team was the biggest disappointment in the NBA through the first 10 games, they've rattled off 4 straight wins both SU and ATS. It makes wagering on San Antonio very difficult, even if you feel they will win this game big. 10.5 points is a ton, but the Sixers are just the type of team to get run over by a much better-coached and more talented ball club. The Sixers, as usual, are losing in the Fall. They've dropped 5 straight, and with Louis Williams going down for 2 months, they really are feeling the hurt. Rookie Jrue Holiday just can't hold his own, and the team is just in perma-struggle right now. I don't think they hang on through even 3 quarters, but at 10.5 points, the back door is certainly in play. Weak lean to the Spurs. I also don't think Philly has the firepower right now to push this total over, though the Spurs have been having no problem posting 100 at home. No lean on the total.
Thunder/Rockets - Oklahoma by 3 with a total of 198. At first glance, I like the Thunder, and let's see what the stats tell us. For one, it's starting to look like the Rockets lack of talent is catching up with them. This team has a bright young point guard in Aaron Brooks, a role player trying to be a superstar (and now starting to struggle as a result) in Trevor Ariza, Mr. Irrelevant, Shane Battier, and Luis Scola. They really don't have the personnel to compete long term. They kept up for a month on glue and tunnels (yeah, I made that expression up), but teams have started to gameplan for them, and suddenly they're finding it a bit tougher to score. They've lost 3 of 4, with the lone win coming against a completely exhausted Sacramento Kings club that Houston was fortunate to catch in such a spot. Otherwise, the Rockets are coming off 2 straight home losses, by 31 to Dallas and by 8 to the suddenly surging Spurs. Also worth noting is that the Rockets beat the Thunder by 9 in Houston earlier this year, so Oklahoma City is going to want to deliver a roundhouse to the jaw. The Thunder are definitely better this year, and oddsmakers and writers are starting to take notice. They are 9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS, are 4-2 both SU and ATS in their last 6, and the two losses came at Orlando and at the Lakers. Needless to say, this team is earning my respect. They beat the Bucks by 18 in their last home game after beating Utah by 10 on the road. Lean to the Thunder here, and no real leans on the total...maybe just a tiny bit to the Over.
Nuggets/Timberwolves - The game we've all been waiting for. Denver by 15.5 with a total of 214. I mean, just the math here is enough to make me want to run for the hills. Denver is expected to win by 15.5 points, yet the total is expected to approach 215? That means if Denver hits 115 points, we'd need the Wolves to break 100, basically. I'd rather not even mess with it. In terms of the side, we know the Wolves are awful; their next expected victory is sometime in 2012, so what's the point? Rather than go into all the reasons to take one side or the other, if this game gets on the card, it would likely because of line movement and little else. That's just the honest truth. Denver had a close win over the Knicks 2 days back, but after the Wolves they host the Warriors, so this isn't really a spot where the Nuggets can be planning ahead. They're on one of the world's easiest homestands, and that's probably why we saw something of a half-assed defensive effort against the Knicks. The Nuggets will win big here, but how big is too much of a question mark for me to venture a play.
Kings/Hornets - Kings by 3 at home with a total of 211. I must say, this line makes me want to jump on the Kings as fast as humanly possible, but I believe it's in all of our best interest to wait and see where the line goes. Sacramento is playing like they mean it! They are 7-8 on the season despite losing their best scorer to a long term injury, but rookie Tyreke Evans has absolutely taken over, even collecting nice chunks of rebounds from the guard spot. You just have to love the development of the young guys on this team, with Hawes, Thompson and Evans the future of the franchise. The Kings have been small favorites in their last 2 home games, and they've dominated in both. I see no reason to change my expectations here, OTHER than that the Hornets have covered 5 straight spreads. Somehow, without Chris Paul, New Orleans has won 4 of 5 straight up, but it looks like they might be starting to lose a step. They have shot under 40% in each of their last 2 games, but have been able to manage a 1-1 record in those games only because their opponents played some terrible games. I don't think they can expect the same performance from the Kings, who are great at home. Still, it's worth mentioning that the Hornets have been hitting totals near 200 despite shooting under 40%, so even a marginal game from the field could push this one Over 211. Lean to the Kings, weak lean to the Over.
Lakers/Nets - Lakers by 15 with a total of 192. It's rare I see a line like this one and think "sharp," but that's the exact sensation I got when I looked at it. The Lakers have been winning BIG lately, taking 5 straight games ALL by double digits, and failing to cover just once in those 5. I'd suggest fatigue might play a factor, but as a Cal grad, I know how easy the travel is from Oakland back to Los Angeles, and considering the game against the Warriors was decided by the 3rd quarter, the starters shouldn't be all that pooped. The Nets, meanwhile, I would wager, should be pretty deflated. They had their shot, as most basketball pundits figured if the Nets had any chance to get off the record-nearing schnide, it was against Sacramento. Well, now they have to go to Los Angeles to face the Champs, and this one could get ugly. Their only hope is that the Lakers take them lightly, but to this point, that really hasn't been an issue for LA. I don't know if it's the return of Gasol or the addition of Ron Artest, but the Lakers are playing angrier this year, and just beating teams out of the building. I'm not sure the Nets can score 85, but the Lakers can break 100 against anyone, so I'd avoid this one altogether, much like most of the other games with lines near 15. Hah!
Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer
Grizzlies at Clippers - The Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since February 21, 2000 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit road win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since January 23, 2008 after a double digit win in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent. The League is 10-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since January 16, 2009 as a favorite after a game on the road in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since March 02, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Celtics at Heat - The Celtics are 10-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since December 16, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they had at least 12 steals. The Celtics are 9-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since December 15, 1995 with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since February 25, 2003 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Hornets at Kings - The Hornets are 11-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since November 23, 2002 on the road off an overtime win. The Hornets are 10-0-1 ATS (10.0 ppg) since April 11, 1997 as a dog after a win in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Hornets are 7-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since January 11, 2005 on the road off a home win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Kings are 0-11 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since January 26, 2000 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. The Kings are 10-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 18, 2005 at home after a home win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Kings are 7-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since February 01, 2008 versus the Hornets.
Magic at Knicks - The Magic are 8-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since December 04, 2006 when they are playing in at least their third straight road game and they have no rest. The League is 6-0 ATS (14.1 ppg) since March 18, 2008 on the road with no rest off a road win in which they trailed by 15+ points. The Knicks are 0-10 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since December 02, 2006 at home with at most one day of rest after a loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
Nets at Lakers - The Nets are 0-7 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since February 02, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS (-14.8 ppg) since April 04, 2004 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a double digit road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Timberwolves at Nuggets - The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since April 15, 2007 as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a double digit home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since March 19, 1999 at home with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.
Hawks at Pistons - The Hawks are 6-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since November 05, 2002 on the road after a win in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Pistons are 0-8 ATS (-5.2 ppg) since January 14, 2001 as a dog when they lost their last two games and both were at home. The Pistons are 0-7 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since April 16, 2006 at home with at most one day of rest when their DPA was at least plus 15 points in their previous game.
Suns at Raptors - The Suns are 6-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since November 10, 1999 on the road with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Raptors are 0-11-1 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since March 07, 2006 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 55% from the field. The Raptors are 8-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since April 11, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times. The Raptors are 0-8-1 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since February 06, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which their DPS was positive.
76ers at Spurs - The Seventysixers are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since April 15, 2007 on the road with at most one day of rest after a double digit home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Spurs are 0-6 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since April 24, 2005 as a home favorite after a game on the road in which they had at least 15 fewer shot attempts than their opponent.
Rockets at Thunder - The Rockets are 8-0-1 ATS (7.7 ppg) since November 20, 2004 on the road with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since April 16, 2002 as a road dog after a game at home in which they had at least 15 more shot attempts than their opponent.