Sunday's NBA Preview
By Josh Jacobs
It’s a small card in the NBA on Sunday but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value. A total of five games have been scheduled with tussles between Portland-Detroit and Houston-Denver looking to be the marquee matchups. Where’s the money moving and can we take advantage of some stats and trends to end the week off on a solid note
Portland at Detroit – 3:00 p.m. EST
The Trailblazers (11-6 straight up, 10-7 against the spread) have not only taken three in a row but are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. A good reason for the success in the standings has to do with shooting 49.8 percent from the field in the last five wins. But even with Portland stroking it from the perimeter, solid defense (allowing 86 PPG in the last six) has helped total players cash in with a 5-1 record on the ‘under’ in the last six games.
Wagering on the total can be tricky however, as the Blazers are 6-4 on the ‘over’ when traveling this season.
Most books have set the Pistons’ totals anywhere from 208 to 183 ½ in the last six games and the results have been one sided. Detroit has been a money maker by going 5-1 on the ‘under’ in those last six. Credit must be given to the team’s conservative 35 ½ shot attempts per game during the ‘under’ run.
Both teams are coming off one-day of rest. Portland has led the charge in this category covering six of eight with just the one-day removed from action. But don’t look past Detroit who’s covered five of eight in the same spot.
Lastly, the Pistons are 5-2 SU at home. Defense has been a staple part of the game plan, allowing opponents to squeak out 96.6 PPG inside the Palace of Auburn Hills.
Allen Iverson logged in 17 points and seven assists on Friday (beating Milwaukee, 107-97) in 28 minutes off the bench after missing practice on Thanksgiving Day.
Houston at Denver – 8:00 p.m. EST
Houston (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS) and Denver (10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) will get to tip-off for the first time this season. The Rockets will be coming off a big game against San Antonio for which the team is 4-0 ATS without a day of rest in-between. Even more attractive to backers is Houston’s 7-3 ATS record on the road and 7-3 performance on the ‘over’ when traveling.
While Ron Artest has been playing with a sprained ankle since Nov. 17 his numbers have remained relatively consistent. The Rockets’ forward has found the bucket for 15.6 PPG with 7.6 RPG in the last five outings. However, uncertainty about Tracy McGady’s knee injury is of more concern. The 15.6 PPG shooter missed his last start against Indiana (losing 91-90).
The Nuggets are 6-2 SU in their last eight even after shooting 44 percent from the field. Denver has struggled from three-point range for a 32 percent success rate and a 27th worst 16.3 turnovers per game have also impeded the team’s chances and grabbing ATS wins. The Nuggets are a lone 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10.
Toronto at L.A. Lakers – 9:30 p.m. EST
The Lakers (13-1 SU, 9-5 ATS) have been crushing teams and taking names. L.A. has just one defeat on the record books (losing to Detroit, 106-95 on Nov. 14), leads the league in scoring (107.5 PPG), has dished the ball for 22.4 APG and is No. 1 in steals (10.2 SPG). In only 24 minutes per game, Trevor Ariza has donated 1.86 steals per game.
L.A. has also been an automatic play in the totals department. The Lake Show has posted a 7-2 record on the ‘over’ at home in large part to tearing through the net for 107.5 PPG scored and snatching 46.9 RPG. Books have installed the total in L.A. games as high as 210.5 points to a low 191.5. It’s been a different story on the road. The Lakers are an opposite 4-1 on the ‘under’ when taking road trips.
The Raptors have been in a financial funk, failing to cover their last four games in a row. While Toronto has fired 47 percent from the field and a smoking 45.1 percent from beyond the arc, giving up 103.2 PPG in the last five has been trouble. And while those stats have helped push the total ‘over’ six times in the last eight a 4-3 record on the ‘under’ on the road hasn’t been a consistent trend. The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight.
Toronto has been a mess on the road, shooting 45 percent for just 92.1 PPG and tossing free throws at a 79 percent clip. Compare those at home to 103 PPG scored, shooting 47 percent and a free throw average of 87 percent and the disparity in the ‘over/under’ is apparent.
Offsetting totals and offensive number is the Raptors 5-2 ATS record on the road. Coming off a 93-88 win over Atlanta on Friday, Toronto is now 1-7 ATS when entering a contest with one-day worth of rest.
The Lakers are 8-2 SU and 5-3-2 ATS in their last 10 versus the Raptors.
vegasinsider.com
NBA RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy
Portland vs. Detroit
Sometimes, you just have a feeling a trap has been set. This is a game that Portland can win outright. Look, Portland is 11-6, they have one more win than the Pistons in fact and this team has won 5 of 6. This is also a game in which Portland can really gauge to see where they have and how far they have come as a team. I'll lean on the Blazers here to win outright at Detroit, remember, this was the same situation when the Twolves came knocking and beat the Pistons outright in Sunday basketball last week.
Chicago vs. Philly
Philly comes off a tough road trip and their last game losing by 24 to Boston was testament to this. In fact, Philly is unpredictable and they have lost their last 3 games. Chicago is on a huge road swing and comes off a 10 point loss to the Spurs, but rarely loses back to back covers of late. Lean on the Bulls here, but Philly comes off that ugly division loss, so still a bit weary of it.
Houston vs. Denver
Houston comes off routing the Spurs after losing to the Pacers at home. Denver bounced back nicely after their loss to the Hornets covering at Minny. Frankly, this can go either way but I like the road Rockets as they continue to be very focused and remember what they did at Phoenix and New Orleans showed that good defensive teams can give Denver a lot of trouble.
Toronto vs. Lakers
If you want a good dog today, take a look at the Raps - BUT, be war that the Lakers are blowing teams out at home typically - just take a look at the Nets the other day. Frankly, I lean on Toronto but I can easily see one of these quarters getting way out of hand. no thanks
PORTLAND (11 - 6) at DETROIT (10 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 65-49 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 52-37 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO (7 - 9) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 52-76 ATS (-31.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-3 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON (11 - 6) at DENVER (11 - 6)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-3 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY (8 - 7) at PHOENIX (11 - 6)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 5-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (8 - 7) at LA LAKERS (13 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 66-49 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 81-53 ATS (+22.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 2-1 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 3-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND vs. DETROIT
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Portland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
CHICAGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Chicago's last 23 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Chicago
HOUSTON vs. DENVER
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
NEW JERSEY vs. PHOENIX
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Jersey is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Phoenix is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Jersey
TORONTO vs. LA LAKERS
Toronto is 3-6-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing LA Lakers
Toronto is 2-11 SU in their last 13 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 7 games