New Orleans Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors
The New Orleans Hornets and the Toronto Raptors will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Air Canada Centre.
The Hornets were buzzing in the third quarter and came back to earn a 98-92 win over the Nuggets on Friday, as a 1.5-point underdog. The 190 points went UNDER the posted total of 204.
Chris Paul led the way with a game-high 30 points, nine rebounds, and 19 assists.
Seven players reached double figures as the Raptors defeated the Nets 118-95 on Friday. The Raptors covered the 7.5-point spread, and the 213 points sailed OVER that game's posted total of 204.
Chris Bosh led the way with 16 points and eight rebounds, and Amir Johnson added 18 points off the bench.
Current streak:
New Orleans has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
New Orleans: 12-13 SU, 12-13 ATS
Toronto: 12-17 SU, 12-17 ATS
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Golden State are 8-2
After playing Denver are 2-8
After a win are 5-5
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 4-6
Before playing Detroit are 6-4
After playing New Jersey are 3-7
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Next up:
New Orleans home to Golden State, Wednesday, December 23
Toronto at Detroit, Wednesday, December 23
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Denver Nuggets and the Memphis Grizzlies will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at FedExForum.
The Nuggets were ousted 98-92 by the Hornets last time out as a 1.5-point favorite on the road. That game's 190 points went UNDER the posted total of 204.
J.R. Smith tossed in 25 points from 11-for-17 shooting.
The Grizzlies defense came through in a big way in the second half as they came back to defeat the Pacers 107-94 on Friday. The Grizzlies covered the 6-point spread, while the 201 points went UNDER the posted total of 209.5.
Zach Randolph led the Grizzlies with a double-double, tossing in 26 points with 16 rebounds.
Team records:
Denver: 19-8 SU, 14-13 ATS
Memphis: 11-15 SU, 13-13 ATS
Denver most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Atlanta are 4-6
After playing New Orleans are 9-1
After a loss are 7-3
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 2-8
Before playing Golden State are 2-8
After playing Indiana are 3-7
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Memphis
Denver is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing Denver
Memphis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Memphis's last 15 games at home
Next up:
Denver home to Atlanta, Wednesday, December 23
Memphis home to Golden State, Tuesday, December 22
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Boston Celtics
The fans at TD Garden will be treated to a game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Boston Celtics when they take their seats on Sunday.
The Timberwolves scored 60 points in the second half and cruised to a 112-96 upset win over the Kings on Friday, as 2-point underdogs. The game's 208 points fell UNDER the posted total of 210.
Kevin Love tossed in 20 points and hauled down 16 rebounds for a double-double in that win.
The Celtics were upset 98-97 by the 76ers last time out, as 11.5-point underdogs. That game's 195 points went as a PUSH against the posted total of 195.
Kevin Garnett netted a double-double with 21 points and 10 rebounds in the loss.
Team records:
Minnesota: 5-22 SU, 13-13-1 ATS
Boston: 20-5 SU, 11-14 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 3-7
Before playing Atlanta are 3-7
After playing Sacramento are 3-7
After a win are 1-9
Boston most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
Before playing Indiana are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 8-2
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
Minnesota is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Boston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Next up:
Minnesota home to Atlanta, Tuesday, December 22
Boston home to Indiana, Tuesday, December 22
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Detroit Pistons
The Los Angeles Lakers and the Detroit Pistons will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
The Lakers were dominant from the start as they cruised past the Nets 103-84 on Saturday. The Lakers covered the 13-point spread, while the 187 points went UNDER the posted total of 196.5.
Kobe Bryant led the Lakers with 29 points and 10 rebounds for a double-double.
Rodney Stuckey collected 31 points and five rebounds in the Pistons 109-98 loss to the Thunder on Friday. The Pistons were 4.5-point underdogs, while the 207 points sailed OVER the posted total of 185.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 3 straight games.
Detroit has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 21-4 SU, 10-15 ATS
Detroit: 11-15 SU, 14-11-1 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing Oklahoma City are 8-2
After playing New Jersey are 3-7
After a win are 9-1
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
Before playing Charlotte are 7-3
After playing Oklahoma City are 4-6
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
LA Lakers are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games
LA Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Detroit
LA Lakers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Next up:
LA Lakers home to Oklahoma City, Tuesday, December 22
Detroit at Charlotte, Tuesday, December 22
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Miami Heat
The Portland Trail Blazers and the Miami Heat will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Brandon Roy poured in a game-high 33 points in the Trail Blazers 92-83 loss to the Magic last time out. Oddsmakers listed the Trail Blazers as 8.5-point underdogs, while the combined score went UNDER the posted total of 192.
The Heat came out strong in the first half and cruised to a 104-86 upset victory over the Magic on Thursday. The Heat won that game as a 4-point underdog, while the teams played UNDER the posted total of 199.
Dwyane Wade tossed in a game-high 25 points, and Michael Beasley added 22 in the victory.
Current streak:
Miami has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 16-12 SU, 14-14 ATS
Miami: 13-11 SU, 12-12 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Dallas are 6-4
After playing Orlando are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3
Miami most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 4-6
Before playing Utah are 7-3
After playing Orlando are 4-6
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
Portland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Miami's last 15 games when playing at home against Portland
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Portland
Next up:
Portland at Dallas, Tuesday, December 22
Miami home to Utah, Wednesday, December 23
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Dallas Mavericks will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at American Airlines Center.
LeBron James poured in 26 points and hauled down 10 rebounds for a double-double on Friday, leading the Cavaliers to an 85-82 victory over the Bucks last time out. The teams played UNDER that game's posted total of 194.
The Mavericks were upset 116-108 by the Rockets in overtime on Friday, as 5.5-point favorites at home. That game's 224 points sailed OVER the posted total of 199.
Jose Juan Barea had 23 points for the Mavericks, while Jason Kidd had nine points with 11 rebounds and 10 assists in the loss.
Current streak:
Cleveland has won 5 straight games.
Team records:
Cleveland: 20-7 SU, 13-14 ATS
Dallas: 19-8 SU, 14-13 ATS
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Phoenix are 7-3
After playing Milwaukee are 5-5
After a win are 8-2
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
Before playing Portland are 8-2
After playing Houston are 8-2
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Dallas is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
Next up:
Cleveland at Phoenix, Monday, December 21
Dallas home to Portland, Tuesday, December 22
Charlotte Bobcats vs. New York Knicks
The Charlotte Bobcats and the New York Knicks will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Madison Square Garden.
Gerald Wallace netted a game-high 30 points with 13 rebounds for a double-double in the Bobcats 110-102 loss to the Jazz on Saturday. The Bobcats were favored by 2.5-points in that contest, while the 212 points sailed OVER the posted total of 190.5.
The Knicks erased a 16 point halftime deficit to defeat the Clippers 95-91 on Friday. The Knicks covered the slight 2-point spread, but the 186 points went UNDER the posted total of 202.
David Lee collected a double-double with 25 points and 11 rebounds. Chris Duhon chipped in with 17 points in the win.
Current streak:
Charlotte has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Charlotte: 10-15 SU, 15-10 ATS
New York: 9-17 SU, 13-13 ATS
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 4-6
Before playing Detroit are 3-7
After playing Utah are 2-8
After a loss are 3-7
New York most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Chicago are 3-7
After playing LA Clippers are 2-8
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
New York is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing at home against Charlotte
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Charlotte home to Detroit, Tuesday, December 22
New York home to Chicago, Tuesday, December 22
NBA RoundUp For 12/20
By Dan Bebe
Hornets @ Raptors - Toronto by 2.5 with a total of 205. Both teams are coming off nice wins, so there isn't really a huge perception edge, though the Hornets have the truly marquee player in Chris Paul, and they're coming off a win over Denver, much more impressive than Toronto's thumping of the Nets. This is an interesting matchup, in that the Hornets have covered 3 straight games, but continue to do the majority of their straight up damage at home. New Orleans is 10-3 at home, 2-10 on the road, with a scoring differential of 9.5 points. The Raptors are 8-5 at home, 4-12 on the road with an even steeper scoring differential of 11.5. So, given the huge home/road splits, it's no surprise to see the Raptors as a small favorite. I think we'll see the public come in on the Hornets, and we'll know more about that by tomorrow morning, but won't have much time to react. For that reason, I will not put out a paid play on this game for any reason, but I may have a play to offer on it for free. I lean to the Raptors, and to the Under, since I think we see the Hornets run into scoring troubles - more to come bright and early.
Nuggets @ Grizzlies - This line is OFF, which unfortunately means we're not going to have a great deal of time to react to it, tomorrow. This could actually be a really, really entertaining game. The Nuggets are not the same team on the road that they are at home, as evidenced by a disappointing loss in New Orleans, and they're definitely not the same team without Chauncey Billups that they are with him. Denver is a Phoenix-like 12-1 at home, but a rather pedestrian 7-7 away from the altitude. They are playing without a killer instinct right now, so even when they do take a lead, it seems to shrink long before it grows. Denver has failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 games, but they're still the team with Carmelo, Kenyon Martin, Nene, J.R. Smith and Chauncey, and the team that the public knows and loves even when they're not playing that well. I expect to see the Nuggets open as a very slight road favorite, perhaps between 2-4, and I expect the public to hammer that small favorite line and get us a better deal on the other side. I rather like the Grizzlies in this spot. Memphis is coming off a win (and cover) against the Pacers at home, and they have played very well against some tough teams in their home building, coming up with wins against Cleveland and Dallas at home, and a cover against the Celtics. I can't help but think the Grizz have a nice shot to win this game. Memphis has a home/road point split of 8.4 points, and the Nuggets have one of almost 11, so the home edge should be huge in this Sunday afternoon tilt. I expect a total in the 210 neighborhood, and I like Grizz and the Under.
Blazers @ Heat - Miami by 5 with a total of 187. This is one of those games where you put two defensive-minded clubs in the same place, and all of a sudden someone is winning 105 to 100. I really don't like to wager on totals between two teams that play exactly the same style of basketball in all other games, because one team usually feels the need to change up their style to beat the other. Still, you have to at least look at the Under, since these two teams are among the league's slowest, in terms of shots per game. Portland is also coming off a slow, plodding loss in Orlando last night, and a game that they saw slip away in a matter of moments late in the 4th quarter. Portland led most of the night, in fact, then suddenly found themselves down 11 points with a minute to go. I think the reverse momentum of Portland's ugly 4th quarter has a strong chance of carrying over into the start of this one, and I expect Miami to get out to a lead. I like the way the Heat have been playing, winning and covering 2 straight home games after Dwyane Wade called his teammates out for not playing their hardest. That type of momentum usually carries until a team heads back on the road, when suddenly the hotel mini-bar schnapps takes precedence over a good night's rest and ultimate focus. Still, Miami is at home now, and taking on a rather poor road team in the Blazers. Portland moved to 6-8 away from home with the loss last night, and is still hunting for some way to get consistent scoring and defense with many of their key pieces injured. I lean Heat and Under.
Lakers @ Pistons - This line is OFF, since Detroit is still looking, hoping, praying that they can get some healthy bodies back. An interesting spot for both teams, too, so I'm anxious to see where this line opens. My guess, based on power rankings, would be Lakers by 9, roughly, but we'll see how close it is to that. Obviously, the public is going to back the Lakers, there's no question about that, especially coming off a road drubbing of the Nets, who should probably consider canceling games before they play them, at this point. But hey, this game isn't about the Nets, it's about the public's perception that the Lakers are indestructible, and that's just not true. The Lakers are only 11-14 ATS this year, so they do tend to let teams back into games, but those teams have to play with some heart. My biggest concern with the underdog in this one (besides the fact that the Pistons will likely be without Rip and Tayshaun again, and maybe Gordon, too), is that Detroit is set to play their first home game after a brutal 3-game road trip. Fortunately, they go back out on the road for the next game, so this isn't really a traditional homestand, more like a road stop in a familiar arena with fans that cheer more. I think we'll see a big line, and I obviously lean to the dog, but the better value in games with huge spreads like this one might be to take a peek at the total and consider an Under, since the Pistons know they have zero chance of beating the Lakers in a shootout.
Timberwolves @ Celtics - Boston by 14 with a total of 197. These numbers don't match up. Just stop and think for a moment how many points the Celtics would need to score to still win by 14 and hit that total. The absolute lowest would be a 106-92 victory. Okay, so more than likely, if the Celtics cover, this game will probably stay Under. If the Wolves can keep up, we've got a nice chance of hitting the Over. This line seems awfully inflated, especially given the fact that Boston has really not been all that great at home. They've mostly found ways to win home games, but they're just 4-8 ATS in their own building, and are coming off an upset loss at the hands of the Sixers. Amazingly, and I typed it a few days ago, but it bears repeating, Boston wins by an average of 9.6 points on the road, and by an average of 8.8 points at home! They are actually a BETTER road team, and it's not a mismatch of talent - they've played decent teams both at home and on the road. I just love fading the Celtics in Boston, and I think we may have another opportunity to at least lean that way, here. Minnesota matches up well with Boston, as evidenced by a 2-point loss to Boston when they played in Minnesota earlier this year. Minnesota has covered 8 of 10 games this month, as well, and I maintain that the biggest reason why is their improved team rebounding since the return of Kevin Love. In the Wolves 10 games in December, they have outrebounded their opponents in 7, and they have covered all 7 of those spreads. They are 1-2 ATS when they lose the rebounding battle. They outrebounded Boston the last time they met, and that was without Love, so this game bodes well for the Wolves. I lean to the road dog, and to the Over.
Bobcats @ Knicks - Knicks by 3 with a total of 193. I was rather hoping the Bobcats would win last night, not just because it was my Pro Play, but also because it would create better value with the Knicks in this one. Instead, now, folks are going to see the Bobcats as the weak team, and we're going to likely have to fight with the public to get the better line on New York, if we so desire. I lean Knicks on handicapping numbers alone, but now we really have to watch the line movement like a hawk to make sure we're not going to get suckered. The Bobcats, obviously, are on a back-to-back, and the Knicks are in a revenge spot after losing to the Bobcats in Charlotte just a few days ago. It is NOT easy to beat the same team twice in two games this close to one another, and we all know about the Bobcats issues on the road. So why is this line only 3 points? That's the point of concern. The Knicks are coming off a win over the suddenly hot Clippers, so it's not as though they haven't been playing well. Their next game isn't for two days, and they host Chicago, so it's not a look-ahead spot, and the Bobcats have shown zero ability to play in pressure road spots, and I'd go out on a limb and say Madison Square Garden is a true road venue. I can't help but lean to the home fave, but let's keep a close eye on the line in case we can spot a trap, if indeed there is one set. The total of 193 seems very low, which also raises red flags that the Knicks may struggle to score. Let's wait and see, here.
Cavs @ Mavs - Had to type this one using the abbreviated nicknames, just because it was fun. There's no line yet, so I'm locating joy where I can. This should be a hell of a game, and I'm anxiously awaiting a line. Dallas has been playing excellent basketball, but may be without their superstar, since Dirk Nowitzki has a few of Carl Landry's teeth lodged in his shooting elbow. Unfortunately, I can't really recommend making a play on this game unless we know his status. Many teams step up with their star out, but I just don't see that being the case for Dallas without Dirk; he's just too important. The Cavs should be able to push the Mavs around a fair amount if Dallas is relying on J.J. Barea and Jason Terry for most of their offense. The best bet in this one might be to take the Over. The oddsmakers are going to adjust the total if Dirk is out, and the Mavs are going to be forced to run like hell if they want to win without him. Both of these teams are half-court teams when they're healthy, but the Mavs will be well-aware of their shortcomings without their 25-point German machine, and they just simply become much easier to defend. Let's wait on this one.
Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer
Timberwolves at Celtics - The Timberwolves are 0-8-1 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since March 15, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since November 16, 2008 on the road after a game at home in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since February 26, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest off a loss in which they led by 15+ points.
Nuggets at Grizzlies - The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since March 06, 2006 as a favorite after winning the previous matchup at home in which Carmelo Anthony took more than 20 shots. The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since March 18, 2003 when seeking revenge for a loss as a road dog in which they committed at least thirty fouls. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since November 18, 1999 at home after a game in which their opponent shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than 25% of them.
Trailblazers at Heat - The Trailblazers are 0-8 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since January 04, 2006 as a road dog after a game on the road in which they had at least ten fewer assists than in the game before. The Trailblazers are 0-8 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since December 21, 2003 as a dog on Sunday after playing on Saturday. The Trailblazers are 0-7 ATS (-3.5 ppg) since February 09, 2008 as a dog when facing a team they lost to as a favorite in their previous same-season match-up. The Heat are 0-8 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since February 09, 2006 after a double digit win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Heat are 8-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since January 30, 2004 as a favorite when facing a non-conference team they beat as a dog in their first match-up of the season.
Bobcats at Knicks - The Bobcats are 7-0-1 ATS (8.4 ppg) since February 21, 2007 on the road with no rest after a game in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Knicks are 8-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since February 26, 2005 with at most one day of rest off a win as a home favorite in which they trailed by 10+ points.
Cavaliers at Mavericks - The League is 10-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 10, 2007 as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a win in which their DPS was minus 15 points or less. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since November 19, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Mavericks are 10-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since June 18, 2006 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they were out-rebounded by double-digits. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since January 12, 2006 as a dog after a game at home in which their DPS was minus 15 points or less. The Mavericks are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since January 27, 2007 with at least one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a four-game winning streak.
Lakers at Pistons - The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since November 28, 2006 after playing the Nets. The Pistons are 0-7 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since January 31, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Hornets at Raptors - The Raptors are 7-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since January 02, 2009 at home with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.