NBA News and Notes Sunday 2/21

What Bettors Need To Know: NBA on ABC
By RICKY DIMON

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (-2, 194.5)

Rough debut

Recently-acquired Antawn Jamison got off to an utterly dismal start with the Cavaliers Friday night. In his debut with the Eastern Conference’s top team (a surprising 110-93 loss at Charlotte), the former Washington Wizard scored a mere two points and missed all 12 of his field-goal attempts in 26 minutes

“I rushed a couple shots and I had a few blocked,” Jamison explained. “I couldn't get into a rhythm. It was one of those nights that will never happen again, I can promise you that.”

Addition has been subtraction for the Cavs (43-13, 28-27-1 ATS) over the past two games. Mo Williams returned from a shoulder injury after the All-Star break and Cleveland promptly lost its first game in 14 outings, suffering a 118-116 home overtime loss to Denver. Williams is averaging 10 points in 22 minutes of play for two games since returning.

Defense has also been an issue, as the Cavs have allowed 100 points in four of their last five games.

“They did what they wanted to do offensively,” Cleveland coach Mike Brown said of the Bobcats. “That is not how we play. We've been doing that lately, and that is the disappointing thing and embarrassing to play that defense. That is something we have to get straight.”

Full Nelson

Oft-injured Magic point guard Jameer Nelson returned from arthroscopic knee surgery on December 21 and now he is starting to play like he is 100 percent. Nelson has scored in double figures in six of his last seven outings and he his assist-to-turnover ratio for the month of February is 2.8 to 1.

Although Orlando (37-19, 28-27-1 ATS) lost to the Mavericks 95-85 at home Friday night, Nelson contributed 16 points on 8-for-15 shooting to go along with six assists.

Armed with a clean bill of health, Nelson talked afterward about his new mentality. “I attack the basket to go to score, and if they come, I throw to the big fella (Dwight Howard).”

Prior engagements

The Cavs earned nine-point victories in each of the previous two meetings between the teams this season. On November 11, the visiting Cavs rolled to a 102-93 victory as 1-point underdogs. Earlier this month, Cleveland hosted the Magic and prevailed 115-106 as a 6-point favorite. In that February 11 encounter, the Cavs had 28 assists to Orlando’s 18 and they turned the ball over just six times.

Trending topics

The Cavs are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games away from home. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five outings overall.

The Magic are 1-3 ATS in their last four home dates.

Cleveland (27-26-3 O/U) has not been a strong over/under play this season, but Orlando (24-32 O/U) has been a stellar under play. The under is 7-3 in the Magic’s last 10 games overall, 15-6 in their last 21 overall.

Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets (-4, 198)

Nate the great

Boston (35-18, 21-31-1 ATS) beat the NBA trade deadline Thursday and landed three-time Slam Dunk champion Nate Robinson from the New York Knicks in a deal that saw guard Eddie House leave town.

“It’s a heartbreak,” Kevin Garnett said of losing House, but it’s a heartbreak he is willing to endure. “Now I have a chance to create a similar relationship with Nate. It’s good to get that energy, instant offense. When I think of Nate I think of energy and how he plays the game with his heart and passion, and I look forward to playing with him.”

Robinson (13.2 ppg, 3.7 apg) is expected to make his debut with the Celtics Tuesday, not Sunday, in part because he is dealing with the flu. While that won’t help Boston against the Nuggets, the trade deadline’s passing is an immediate benefit in that Ray Allen no longer has to worry about being shipped away.

In two games since the trade deadline, Allen (16.3 ppg) has poured in 24 and 21 points. In a 96-76 road rout of Portland on Friday night, Allen sank 9-of-14 field goals and also added five assists.

Selfish ball

Although the Nuggets (36-19, 25-27-3 ATS) are still atop the Northwest Division, they have not won back-to-back games since February 1 and they will be trying to bounce back from a dreadful 107-97 loss at Washington Friday night.

No Denver player had more than three assists against the Wizards and the team as a whole dished out 12. The Wizards, by contrast, shared the ball to the tune of 22 assists and also out-rebounded the Nuggets 47-40.

“If we don't pass it, we're not a great team,” coach George Karl explained. “We have a selfish disposition at times. You can't beat anybody with 12 assists. It's just a joke. We should be much more mature and understanding; if that's the way we're going to try to beat people, we're going to have nights like tonight.”

Prior engagement

Adding insult to injury, or the other way around, is a back injury to Chris Andersen, who missed his first game of the season Friday night. Andersen was 50-50 to play as of Friday afternoon and the looming game against Boston might have been the deciding factor in Denver’s decision to rest him.

“I think he knows we need him against Boston,” Karl noted.

Aside from that, both teams are remarkably healthy. Boston is looking the best it has been all year in the injury department, as Garnett, who missed a total of 12 games in December and January due to a knee problem, is starting to heat up. Garnett tallied 13 points and eight rebounds in a 1-point road win over the Lakers Thursday, 16 points and seven boards in Friday’s victory over Portland.

Trending topics

The Celtics are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, having failed to cover the spread in five straight games prior to their recent two-game streak.

The Nuggets have not been stellar ATS of late. They have covered the spread in back-to-back games just once since December 7, and they are 1-3 ATS in their last four home dates.

In terms of the over/under, Boston (23-29-1 O/U) has been a solid under play this season. Denver (26-29 O/U) has not been a particularly strong over/under play, although the team also leans slightly toward the under. It should be noted that the under is 6-0 in the Celtics last six outings.

Twin-bill of Sunday NBA wagering action
Doug Upstone

Four division leaders will collide on ABC this afternoon, kind of a playoff primer if you will. The first is a rematch of last years Eastern Conference Finals, with Cleveland traveling south to Orlando to try and continue to prove to their loss was a mistake and they are indeed the better team. Later, Boston wraps up their five game road trip in the Mile High City. Two top tilts, lots of wagering options.

I must punish you for past misdeeds

The Cleveland Cavaliers (43-13, 28-27-1 ATS) lost to Orlando in six games in the East Finals and didnt sit by idly feeling sorry for itself. They were no match for the Magic and Dwight Howard and picked up the one available big man that could be difference-maker in Shaquille O'Neal. The Cav with LeBron James, have the best record in the NBA and have faced the Magic twice this year, beating them each time while covering the spread.

For the Cavaliers, that wasnt not enough, which is why they made the trade for forward Antawn Jamison, who can play the jazzy named "stretch 4" position, which is a power forward who can stretch the defense out to the three-point line. (Pretty cool) The Cleveland front office believes once Leon Powe is activated, they have the necessary parts to not only beat Orlando, but take the whole enchilada. The Cavs arrive in central Florida 19-9 and 16-11-1 ATS on the road.

The Magic players acknowledge Cleveland up the ante. "They made themselves better," said Rashard Lewis said after hearing about the trade. "They wanted to match up with me, or down to me, but I'm not their matchup problem. It's the big fellow (Dwight Howard) over there." Lewis averaged 18.3 points and shot 48.4 percent from 3-point range in the conference final against Cleveland last spring.

However, just because youre comfortable does mean its a done deal and Orlando (38-19, 26-26-4 ATS) is still the defending East champs. "They already were the best team in the East, by far, and this makes them stronger," said Magic forward Matt Barnes. "But we're not going to hold our heads down. We're still confident we can beat them."

Orlando is 21-6 at home (13-13-1 ATS) and plays into double revenge and is a two-point favorite at Sportbet.com with total of 196.5. The Magic as a less than magical 8-20 ATS off a double digit home loss which they suffered to Dallas (95-85) on Friday and are 22-8 UNDER off a loss. Cleveland is usually an angry club off a whipping (like they felt at Charlotte 110-93) and is 22-6 ATS off a double digit defeat.
This matinee starts at 1:00 Eastern and the Cavaliers are 10-4-1 OVER since Jan. 16.

Denver a Mile High Headache

The Nuggets are fairly perky again after trudging into Cleveland and ending the Cavs 13-game winning streak. Carmelo Anthony upstaged James at crunch time, scoring his 39th and 40th points to break a 116-116 tie with a jumper with 1.9 seconds remaining in overtime to give Denver the win at Cleveland on Thursday night.

"A lot of people got some good pictures out of that moment," Anthony said. "I wanted the ball. I made the shot." Denver (36-19, 25-27-3 ATS) followed that up with dud at Washington, losing by 10 and return home where they are 23-5 (14-13-1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center.

Boston (35-18, 21-31-1 ATS) checks into Denver 3-1 on road trip, looking to return home on a very positive note. The Celtics have been scuffling plenty the last two months (12-13 SU and 8-16-1 ATS), nevertheless are showing signs of returning to earlier form with 6-2 record in February.

Boston hopes to get something immediately out of their newest player Nate Robinson. "He gives us speed, No. 1," coach Doc Rivers said. "He gives us another ball-handler. And he gives us a guy that can have a night. When guys go flat, he's a guy that can create shots without a play (or) after a play has broken down, on a ball swing. The other thing he does is gives us defense. He can pressure the ball. We can use lineups with (Rajon) Rondo and Nate at times against certain teams. The ball pressure alone will be phenomenal."

Denver is a four-point favorite with total of 199 and is 7-1 ATS off a spread failure and 5-1 UNDER in previous six with a day off between games. Boston is a boastful 51-22-1 as a visiting dog and is 8-1 UNDER in last nine, including six in a row.

This encounter is slated for 3:30 Eastern start with the home team 7-2 ATS.

Cleveland (43-13, 28-27-1 ATS) at Orlando (37-19, 28-27-1 ATS)

The Cavaliers, who have followed up 13-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, try to get back on track when they trek to Amway Arena in search of their third victory over the Magic this season in as many tries.

Cleveland’s 13-game run ended with Thursday’s 118-116 overtime loss to Denver as a 6½-point home favorite, and it followed that 24 hours later with a 110-93 setback at Charlotte as a 4½-point road chalk. The Cavaliers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games, a slump that follows a 6-0 spread-covering run. However, their last spread-cover came in a 115-106 rout of Orlando as a six-point home favorite on Feb. 11, which capped Cleveland’s 13-game winning streak.

Orlando came out of the All-Star break on Wednesday and destroyed Detroit 116-91 as an 11-point home favorite, but failed to build on that momentum as it lost 95-85 to the Mavericks on Friday as a seven-point home chalk, getting outscored 30-16 in the fourth quarter. The Magic are still 11-4 in their last 15 games, but just 8-7 ATS. They’ve also won eight of their last 10 at Amway Arena, going just 5-5 ATS (1-3 ATS in the last four).

In addition to pounding the Magic by nine points 10 days ago in Cleveland, the Cavaliers own a 102-93 win in Orlando as a one-point underdog that came way back on Nov. 11. Those two victories follow last year’s Eastern Conference finals series, which the Magic won in six games (5-1 ATS). Orlando, despite failing to cover in both meetings this year, is still 15-4 ATS in the last 19 series meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes in Florida.

The Cavs’ current 1-4 ATS slump is offset by positive pointspread streaks of 17-8-1 against winning teams, 37-18 after a SU loss, 22-6 following a double-digit defeat, 10-3 on Sunday, 7-1 when playing after one day off and 4-1 against the Southeast Division.

The Magic have failed to cover in five of seven against winning teams and 36 of 52 following a double-digit home defeat, but they’re otherwise on ATS runs of 6-2 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 against the Central Division, 4-1 after one day of rest, 4-0 following a non-cover and 4-0 on Sunday.

Cleveland carries “over” trends of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 against the Eastern Conference, 3-1-1 versus the Southeast Division and 5-0 versus winning teams. However, the under is 41-15-2 in the Cavs’ last 58 Sunday contests. Meanwhile, Orlando is on “under” runs of 15-6 overall, 7-3 at home, 22-8 after a defeat, 36-15 following a non-cover, 40-18 when playing on one day of rest and 10-2 on Sunday.

Finally, going back to last year’s Eastern Conference finals series, the over has hit in the last five meetings between these teams, and four of the last five battles at Amway Arena have also cleared the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO

Boston (35-18, 21-31-1 ATS) at Denver (36-19, 25-27-3 ATS)

The Celtics conclude a five-game Western Conference road swing when they pay their only visit of the season to the Pepsi Center to face the Nuggets.

Boston’s journey started back on Feb. 10, when it blew a second-half lead at New Orleans and fell 93-85 as a five-point favorite. The trip resumed following the All-Star break, and the Celtics have ripped off three straight wins, topping Sacramento 95-92 on Tuesday (failing to cash as a 5½-point favorite), the Lakers 87-86 on Thursday (as a 2 ½-point underdog) and Portland on Friday 96-76 (as a three-point pup). Prior to covering the spread in its last two games, Boston had been in a 2-11-1 ATS freefall.

One day after stealing a 118-116 overtime win in Cleveland as a 6½-point underdog – ending the Cavaliers’ 13-game winning streak in the process – Denver went to Washington and took a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter. But everything fell apart for the Nuggets in the final 12 minutes, as they got outscored 34-15 and lost 107-97 as a six-point underdog. Denver has been struggling with consistency, as it has split its last 10 games (4-5-1 ATS), alternating SU wins and losses in its last eight. This comes on the heels of an eight-game winning streak.

The Celtics continue to sport one of the NBA’s best road records at 20-9, but they’re just 15-14 ATS. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won 23 of 28 home games, going only 14-13-1 ATS. They’ve followed up a nine-game home winning streak by losing two of their last three at the Pepsi Center.

Last year, Boston – in the fifth game of a six-game Western Conference road trip – went to Denver as a one-point favorite and destroyed the Nuggets 114-76, ending a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in the Mile High City. The road team took both of last year’s matchups after the host had won the previous seven in a row SU and ATS. The winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last 17 meetings.

With Friday’s victory in Portland, the Celtics have now covered in four of five against Northwest Division opponents. Other than that, they’re in ATS funks of 4-11-1 overall, 2-8-1 against the Western Conference, 3-7 after a SU win, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-5-1 when playing on one day of rest.

Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven on Sunday and it has failed to cash in 13 of 19 after one day off. From there, though, George Karl’s club is on pointspread surges of 4-0 after a SU defeat, 7-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 18-6 against the Atlantic Division and 3-1-1 versus winning teams.

Boston has stayed under the total in six straight games overall, five in a row on the road, six straight against the Western Conference and 11 of 15 on Sunday, and the under is 39-19-1 in its last 59 games following a double-digit win. The under is also 5-1 in Denver’s last six games when playing on one day of rest. Conversely, the over is 4-1 in the Celtics’ five against the Northwest Division, 7-2 in Denver’s last nine against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 in the last eight Celtics-Nuggets eight meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER

Utah (35-19, 33-18-3 ATS) at Portland (32-25, 30-26-1 ATS)

The streaking Jazz attempt to complete a perfect four-game road trip when they return to the Rose Garden for a Northwest Division showdown against the inconsistent Trail Blazers.

Utah is 3-0 SU and ATS on its current road trip, knocking off Houston on Tuesday (104-95 as a three-point favorite), New Orleans on Wednesday (98-90 as a four-point favorite) and Golden State on Friday (100-98 as a five-point chalk). The Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, having won 17 of their last 19 games while going 15-2-3 ATS. They’ve also won and covered six straight road games, the last five as a favorite.

The Jazz have scored 100 points or more 16 times during their 17-2 run, and they’ve held 17 of their last 21 opponents under the century mark. Over its last five games, Jerry Sloan’s squad is yielding just 93.8 ppg (41.6 percent shooting).

Portland’s modest two-game SU and ATS uptick ended in ugly fashion Friday, as it fell 96-76 to Boston as a three-point home favorite, even though All-Star point guard Brandon Roy played 34 minutes, his most extensive in more than five weeks as he had missed 14 of the previous 16 games with a hamstring injury. The Blazers are just 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS in their last 12 games, including 3-5 SU and ATS at home.

During Utah’s 17-2 hot streak and Portland’s 5-7 slump, these teams have met twice – once in each team’s gym – and the Jazz took both games by scores of 106-95 (as a 2½-point road chalk) and 118-105 (as a 7½-point home favorite). Throw in a 108-92 rout as a five-point home chalk on Nov. 28 in Salt Lake City, and Utah has won and covered all three meetings this season.

Despite last month’s result in Portland, the home team is still 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 series clashes, with Utah going 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to the Rose Garden. Also, the favorite has cashed in each of the last nine meetings and is 18-6 ATS in the last 24, while the SU winner is 14-0 ATS in the last 14.

The Jazz are on a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 19-6-3 overall, 15-5-1 on the road (6-0 last six), 20-7-2 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 12-2-2 against the Western Conference, 2-0-2 against divisional rivals, 8-1 when playing on one day of rest and 18-6-3 versus opponents with a winning record.

Portland is on ATS upticks of 31-14 as a home underdog, 22-10 as a home pup of less than five points, 4-1 on Sunday and 8-2 after a SU defeat. On the flip side, the Blazers have failed to cover in four of their last five against Northwest Division opponents and nine of 13 after a double-digit home loss.

Utah is on “under” runs of 4-0 overall (all in the Western Conference and all as a favorite) and 13-6 as a road chalk of less than five points, while Portland has stayed low in five of six overall, five of six at home, four straight as an underdog and four of five as a home pup. Conversely, the “over” is on stretches of 5-0 for the Jazz against winning teams, 4-1 for the Jazz on Sunday, 13-3 for the Jazz versus Northwest Division foes, 4-1 for Portland in divisional battles and 5-0 for Portland against winning teams.

Finally, the over has cashed in five consecutive meetings between these rivals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER

NBA RoundUp 2/21
By Dan Bebe

Cavaliers @ Magic - Orlando by 2 with a total of 196.5. This is an interesting spot, in that I feel like neither team is really in a particularly strong spot, and neither team is in a particularly weak spot. Let's start with Cleveland. The Cavaliers are coming off back-to-back losses, one a crushing OT home defeat at the hands of the Nuggets, and then, the following day, an emotional letdown and blowout loss courtesy of the slumping Bobcats. That was a great spot to fade the Cavaliers, and a number of the regular blog readers did so, wisely (kudos to you, you know who you are!). But now, Cleveland has lost the TNT game, and then had the letdown, and now, is this a bounceback spot or almost like a blank slate game? No matter how you look at it, I think you have to give the Cavs, on a scale from 1-5 (1 being a terrible spot, and 5 being an amazing one), something of a 3.1, JUST above neutral. They're going to get better slowly now, with the addition of Antawn Jamison, who just looked horrid in his first action for Cleveland, clearly pressing a bit, but right now, the Cavs are getting out and running a bit, and I'm curious to see how that translates over into this big ABC game. On the Orlando side, the Magic had a pretty ugly home meltdown to the Mavs 2 days ago, blowing a big lead and eventually getting crushed as a 6 point favorite. Were they looking ahead to the Cavs? Might have been. Or are they just not that great this year? I would give the Magic roughly a 3.4 on the situational scale mentioned above. So, I suppose we might be getting minimal value with the Magic, who may be looking to avenge a loss in Cleveland just before the All Star Break. Unfortunately, I'm concerned the line has already reflected that revenge factor, and it's going to be my sworn duty between now and tip to figure out if indeed that revenge is giving us value, or if it's been preadjusted. In the interim, I lean to the Magic, and the Under. The line on the previous meeting was 193, and the game hit 211, yet this line has been adjusted only 3.5 points? Something foul is afoot on that one.

Celtics @ Nuggets - Nuggets by 4 with a total of 199. This is another spot, much like the game above, where both teams are right smack in the middle of the situational ranking scale (existing mostly in my mind). The Nuggets are returning home after a road back-to-back that was, let's say, a very strange 1-1. The Nuggets rolled into Cleveland and beat the Cavaliers in overtime as a medium-sized underdog, then followed that up with a complete and utter disaster in Washington (a game we cashed on the Wizards). Now, they return home for another big game, but this time with the Boston Celtics. The questions, again, are, will Denver suffer an additional letdown game, disappointed by the loss to Washington, and still reeling from the Cleveland OT situation, or will Denver strut their typical home stuff, and take it to the Celtics? The Nuggets are an exact "3" on our little scale, trapped right in the center between motivational angles and travel schedule/early tip-time. Boston, on the other side of things, has come out of the All Star Break with a renewed sense of purpose. They're still not lighting things up on the offensive side of the ball, and they're relying on solid defense to go on any in-game runs they might have, but I think the biggest change for Boston is the play of Ray Allen. I don't know if the pressure of potentially being traded was bogging him down, but Allen has been dynamite from the outside in the two big wins over LA and Portland. When he's got his stroke going, Boston is damn tough, since they can literally run a series of back-screens, and with minimal room, Ray-Ray can knock down a 3. He has hit huge shots in these games when his teammates seemingly go ice cold. Still, off the blowout win in Portland, will Boston have much value left here? I would tend to think they will. Denver is a team of nearly the same level of marqueeness, and I bet we'll see fairly split action on this game. I have a teeny, tiny lean to Denver, as Boston is finishing up a 4-game road trip, but they're playing well, so that lean is as small as they come. My stronger lean is on the total, which feels like an Under. Boston has been playing better defense, and they're not going to want to get into any kind of running game with Denver, the stronger, faster opponent. With Denver just returning home, I think they'll be hesitant to run like crazy, and this one is going to slip Under the total by a bucket or two.

Spurs @ Pistons - Spurs by 5 with a total of 187.5. Let's face it, Detroit stinks. They beat the Wolves in the first game out of the All Star Break, but have since been blown out in Orlando and lost at home to the Bucks. They are a team so terrible that having line value almost doesn't matter, since they just keep losing. Joe Dumars has been on a vicious roll of awful trades and signings, and it's manifesting itself on the court. Charlie Villanueva has been an epic bust (who didn't see that coming, really?), Ben Gordon has been hurt most of the year, and mainstays like Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton just aren't enough to get it done anymore, not without a floor leader like Chauncey Billups hanging around. So, I pose another question (yeah, that seems to be the way I'm feeling in this write-up): is the line value we get with Detroit enough to warrant a play on them, basically ever? Well, I have to admit, the +5 is definitely looking succulent against an aging, inconsistent Spurs team that is just 12-12 on the road this year (10-14 ATS), and coming off a narrow win (and failed over in Indiana), followed by an ugly loss to the Sixers. This game also happens to be the conclusion of the rodeo road trip for the Spurs, so we'll see how they react to that spot. They played a GREAT game going into the All Star Break, so if that game is any indication of how San Antonio wants to "finish strong", then we might actually see a half-decent effort from them here. Going back through the season, the Spurs have actually gone 2-0 in the final game of road trips of 3 games or longer. I'm not sure if we can make much of that, but if we couple that small note with their effort going into the Break, I think it's safe to say that the Spurs are decent closers of road trips. I lean Spurs, square as I may be. They've also seemed to play to the pace of their opponents on the road, so I'm inclined to believe this total is very accurate. I suppose I have a tiny lean to the Under.

Grizzlies @ Nets - Memphis by 4.5 with a total of 195. This is a Grizzlies team that desperately needs a shot in the arm, but I'm just not sure this is the time. Earlier this season this would be a game where teams would roll into town looking to "get fat," but right now, Memphis is struggling. They got a key OT road win in Toronto, but then came home and lost a 2OT game to the Heat (who, for what it's worth, are playing some outstanding defense lately). Now, the Grizz head back out on the road for just one game, then come back home to host the Lakers. I'd love to call this a look-ahead spot, and maybe it is, but it's a minor one now, given how badly the Grizzlies need a win. Still, the public was just starting to catch on with how good the Grizzlies were playing before they reverse-bottomed out, lost their value, and went on a tailspin both SU and ATS. On the Jersey side, they are coming off getting crushed by the Raptors for a rare ATS loss. Looking at the numbers, though, that game appeared to be the classic "Injured Star" spot for Toronto, where the non-Bosh players all stepped it up and shot almost 60% for the game! I'm writing this before the results of last night's Toronto game come in, but I'll be curious to see if the Raptors can keep playing well for one more game without their star, or if they'll slip. That is one of those interesting spots, tracking how long the role players can step it up; but I digress. Jersey continues to get a ton of value against the line, as they are now officially the most hated team in the NBA by public bettors, and unless their opponent is in tremendous value spot (as the Raptors were 2 nights ago), you absolutely HAVE to lean Jersey before looking at anything else. The Grizzlies are in a bad way right now, so indeed I do lean Jersey. I also think playing Overs with the Nets is currently the sneakiest total in the NBA - they're scoring better and their defense still stinks, and if they're playing a team that is also struggling on defense (as the Grizzlies are; Memphis's problem lately has been offensive continuity, even moreso), the Over has some value.

Rockets @ Hornets - New Orleans by 1 with a total of 200. I will admit, my first instinct with this game is to worry a bit. New Orleans beat Indiana a couple days back, Indiana just beat Houston last night. Why would anyone bet on Houston in this one? The Rockets are on a back-to-back spot, and are just 5-9 ATS in those spots, despite actually winning 8 of 14 straight up. So, really, the issue has been that they haven't really covered as a favorite in low-rest situations. I just can't help but wonder how the oddsmakers are making this line so close to a pick, when, by the NBA transitive property, the Hornets should have little trouble dispatching the Rockets. Unfortunately, life isn't so simple. You just never quite know what team is going to match up well with what other team, and which club is going to play with the higher level of motivation. Houston brought Kevin Martin off the bench in his first game, and shot a horrible 3-for-16, so he could very well play better today. These two teams also played twice in rapid succession right near the turn of the year, with both teams winning, and covering at home. I honestly do find it a bit difficult to believe the Rockets can play a strong game on the road, but you just never know. I lean to the Hornets, but something about that side feels too easy. For the total, this is far and away the highest total of any of the 3 meetings between these two teams, with each of the first two games listed right around 194. With both of these teams coming off high-scoring games with the Pacers, I worry that this total might actually jump up a point or two off the opening number, but the value would seemingly be on the under. The total is a very, very tough call. I think this number is accurate, though these weird Sunday games have a way of starting off a little slow, so I lean just slightly to the Under.

Thunder @ Wolves - Oklahoma City by 6.5 with a total of 200.5. This is not going to be an easy back-to-back for the Thunder. They picked up a win in overtime over the Knicks, but it took a miracle comeback in regulation, and then a late surge in OT to get it done. This has all the feelings of an Oklahoma letdown. They might very well win the game, just like they did in New York, but Minnesota is rested, and playing their second game at home. I know all indications are that the Thunder will just keep on steamrolling the League, but I think they'll get a run for their money here against Minnesota. 6.5 is a ton of points to cover in a back-to-back, especially with the overtime factor in New York. And really, let's be honest, the flight from New York to Minnesota is not THAT quick. This game tips at 7 eastern time, so 6 central, which means the Thunder have significantly less than 24 hours to turn around and get amped back up for a game with a team that really doesn't inspire energy or adrenaline. For what it's worth, the Thunder have been pretty bad on Sundays, at just 1-6 ATS, for reasons unbeknownst to me. They also seem to get involved in higher scoring games on the back-to-back, allowing, on average, 2 more points to their opponents when tired. Plus, Minnesota, as we've seen, tends to play a quick tempo. I think off the tough win in New York, the Thunder are not going to be that focused on defense, and I doubt they've gameplanned for Minnesota's weird iteration of the triangle offense. I lean to Minnesota, and I like the Over once again. Plus, these teams played in late January, and the Thunder won 94-92 in Minnesota with a posted total of 199.5. This total is higher despite that lower-scoring affair, and with the revenge, there are two more reasons to like the plays I do.

Hawks @ Warriors - Atlanta by 5.5 with a total of 213.5. I have no idea why I keep thinking Golden State played last night. They didn't. My mind is fuzzy when it comes to the Berkeley/Oakland area of the US. In any case, the Warriors are coming off an ugly offensive effort against the Jazz, which shouldn't surprise anyone. They had the collective mega-game against the Kings 2 days before that, but it's pretty clear that superior competition is really going to give the Warriors trouble, especially without Monta Ellis. Yes, he played against Utah, but just didn't look healthy, going just 2-for-14 from the field. Yikes. Will he bounce back in this one? It's tough to say, if we don't know how badly he is really banged up. I know this 5.5-point line is a dubious number for the Hawks, but I'm not sure it's one of the "special" cases that we talk about in the blog and on the daily podcast. Honestly, I rather wish the Hawks had won their game in Phoenix on Friday, since then we'd have some value playing on the Warriors. Instead, Atlanta lost a weird, low-scoring defensive game with the Suns (I know, I didn't believe it either), and you have to believe they come into this one looking forward to picking on a smaller, weaker opponent. I don't believe there's a letdown factor for Atlanta coming off the game in Phoenix, since the Suns aren't really a rival, and despite the Hawks game in Utah tomorrow, I think they will be focused for this one. I don't really like the Hawks, but I definitely don't like the Warriors, so I guess I have a microscopic lean to the road faves. And those of you that read this blog daily, you know how much I have to loathe a home dog of this magnitude to lean road. I also wonder about that total. I didn't watch the Suns/Hawks game, but reading the recap it sounds like the Suns were making a concerted effort to play defense. Thus, I'm not sure how the Hawks are going to respond to the Warriors breakneck pace, but it's looking more and more like physical teams can really slow the Warriors down. I like the Under.

Kings @ Suns - Phoenix by 11.5 with a total of 218. I can tell you right now I like the Under. I don't even have to look at the line or the history. The Suns are making a conscious effort to play some defense, as evidenced by their extremely low-scoring game with Atlanta, and while I think they'll definitely score more than 88 in this one, I think Phoenix continues to really try to clamp down on the defensive end, and win games the RIGHT way. Guys like Robin Lopez, Louis Amundson, Channing Frye, and a few others are really helping Phoenix make monster strides on the defensive end of the court, and going against Sacramento's one-man-gang is a great opportunity to flex those defensive muscles. This one ends in the 205-210 range, I'm pretty confident. Let's see if this line gets steamed down overnight, and we might very well have ourselves a play. On the Kings side, they struggled with the new pieces, but as expected, Tyreke Evans, and to a lesser extent, Omri Casspi carried the team against the Clippers. Also, to no one's surprise, they still aren't very good. That being said, I think this team is actually better with Kevin Martin gone. Martin is a pure shooter; nothing else. He stops the ball on offense, and he doesn't actually look healthy to me. Sacramento can get a nice, slightly undersized but highly skilled Carl Landry out on the floor, giving them a nice little dimension, and now the combo of Hawes, Thompson and Landry is a nice little trio of moderate skill that Sacramento can cultivate moving forward. I rather like the pieces on this team, but they're just not good enough to compete...yet -- at least not with good teams. I think Sacramento will play hard enough to keep this game with Phoenix close, so I lean in their direction, but I feel like this spread is too large to really be a game with the top value on the board.

Jazz @ Blazers - Utah by 1 with a total of 192. Nice rivalry game in the Pacific Northwest, but will Portland wake up for this one? Unfortunately for bettors, this game features a few key question marks that make it a tough one to call, specifically on the Blazers' side. Portland is trying to work Brandon Roy back into the lineup, and newcomer Marcus Camby, as well. The efforts to re-tool how the offense is run and try to get Camby familiar with all the schemes takes time. We saw in Portland's clunker of an effort against the Celtics that they just weren't ready to all play together, and I really strongly believed they would bring a high-level effort, even if the chemistry wasn't perfect. So, will Portland be ready to step it up in their second game with Roy and Camby back in the lineup? I'm not sure. Dallas looked WAY better in their second game with Butler and Haywood. Cleveland looked horrid in its first game with Jamison, so we're kind of watching closely how all these teams involved in larger trades respond to the new personnel. And really, the smart move here is to just not bet this one. Utah hosts Atlanta at home tomorrow, so there might be a value play in that game, depending on how this one turns out, and maybe we should just wait. For those of you that desperately want to make a play on this one, you obviously have to compare two notes. The Blazers are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to the Celtics, so they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulders. The Jazz are steamrolling the NBA, going 15-2-3 ATS in their last 20 games, or thereabouts depending on the line you got, and what reason do we have to think they'll slow tonight? They've defeated Portland all 3 times this year, and I wonder if this isn't one of those spots where a team on triple-revenge is just overmatched. I like Utah in this small spread to cover in a close game. I also my (or anyone's) opinion on the total is based on whether we think Roy has a good game his 2nd night back. I believe he may need another game or two to get back into the swing of things, and I like the Under.

Tips and Trends

Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets

Celtics: Boston appears reinvigorated since the All Star break, as they are unbeaten SU in 3 road games. They were the listed underdog to both the Lakers and the Blazers. Boston is 35-18 SU on the season, the 3rd best record in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 20-9 SU and 15-14 ATS on the road this season. The Celtics are 6-2-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Boston has been playing unbelievable defense, holding 15 of their past 17 opponents to fewer than 100 PTS. The Celtics only allow 93.2 PPG, the fewest in the entire NBA. Opponents are only shooting 44% against Boston this season. Offensively, the Celtics average 98.4 PPG this season. Unfortunately, Boston has only reached the 100 point barrier once in their past 16 games. Ironically, the Celtics shoot 48.2% from the field, the 4th best in the NBA. Clearly this specific stat proves how Boston prefers to slow down the pace of play in each game they play. G Ray Allen averages 16.3 PPG this season, and typically plays his best against the Nuggets.

Celtics are 9-4 ATS last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % greater than .600.
Under is 5-0 last 5 road games.

Key Injuries - G Nate Robinson (flu) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 95

Nuggets (-4, O/U 199): Today is a huge revenge game for Denver, as the last time they hosted the Celtics at home they lost by 38 PTS. That 38 point debacle was the 2nd worst home loss in franchise history for Denver. The Nuggets have alternated SU wins and losses over their past 8 games. Proof of this inconsistency was in their past 2 games. Denver beat the Cavaliers on the road SU, only to follow that up with a SU loss to the Wizards. The Nuggets are 36-19 SU this season, the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. Denver is 23-5 SU and 14-13-1 ATS at home this season. The Nuggets are 9-6-1 ATS as a single digit home favorite this season. Denver has scored at least 100 PTS in 8 of their past 10 home games. The Nuggets average 107.3 PPG this season, the 3rd most PTS in the NBA. F Carmelo Anthony is 3rd in the NBA with 29.3 PPG this season. G J.R. Smith has scored in double figures in 6 of his past 7 games.

Nuggets are 7-1 ATS last 8 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Key Injuries - C Chris Anderson (back) is questionable.
F Renaldo Balkman (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 106 (SIDE of the Day)

Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers

Jazz (-1, O/U 192): The Jazz are the hottest team in the Western Conference, as they've won 16 of their past 18 games SU. In their past 20 games, the Jazz have only lost twice ATS. Utah is 35-19 SU for the season, which is the 3rd best record in the Western Conference. The Jazz have won 6 straight road games SU, and are 13-12 SU on the road this entire season. Utah is 15-9-1 ATS on the road this season, and they haven't lost a road game ATS since last December. THe Jazz are 19-10-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The only negative that's happened all year for the Jazz was the recent trade of G Ronnie Brewer. That front office decision raised eyebrows amongst the players, notably star PG Deron Williams. Williams leads the 7th highest scoring team in the NBA with 102.1 PPG this season. Williams averages 18.3 PPG and the 9.9 APG, the 3rd most in the NBA. F Carlos Boozer is averaging 19.4 PPG and 11 RPG this season, both team highs for the Jazz.

Jazz are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-0 last 5 vs. a team with a winning SU record.

Key Injuries - C Mehmet Okur (personal) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 100

Trail Blazers: The last team in the NBA that Portland wants to see today is the Utah Jazz. Portland has lost all 3 games SU to the Jazz this season, losing by double digits each time. Portland has been the listed underdog all 3 contests this season. The Blazers have played .500 basketball the past 6 games, and stand 32-25 SU on the season. Portland is currently sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Blazers are coming off a season low 76 PTS, including a franchise low 7 assists total at home to the Celtics. The Blazers are 19-12 SU and 14-16-1 ATS at home this season. Portland is 12-11 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Blazers average 97 PPG this season, with star G Brandon Roy leading the way with 22.3 PPG. Roy is coming off an injury, and has only scored 13 PTS in the past 2 games combined. The recent addition of C Marcus Camby should make the Blazers defense even stronger. The Blazers only allow 95.2 PPG this season, the 5th fewest PPG in the NBA.

Trail Blazers are 22-10 ATS last 32 games as a home underdog up to 4.5 PTS.
Under is 5-1 last 6 home games.

Key Injuries - C Joel Przybilla (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 101 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer

Rockets at Hornets – The Rockets are 10-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since November 01, 2002 on the road after playing the Pacers. The Hornets are 10-0 ATS (7.5 ppg) since March 02, 2005 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers.

Cavaliers at Magic – The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since November 17, 1995 with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Magic are 0-8 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since April 18, 2001 with at least one day of rest after a double digit home loss in which their DPS was minus 15 points or less.

Grizzlies at Nets – The League is 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since March 07, 2007 on the road with at most one day of rest off an overtime game double digit loss. The Nets are 6-0-1 ATS (5.3 ppg) since December 20, 2006 after a game at home in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

Celtics at Nuggets – The League is 10-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since January 02, 2008 on the road after a road win in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 10, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since March 08, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.

Spurs at Pistons – The Pistons are 0-8 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since February 27, 1998 at home when they have a non-conference revenge game on the road next. The Pistons are 0-9 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since January 02, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

Kings at Suns – The Suns are 0-7 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since February 03, 2003 at home after a win in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Suns are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since March 11, 2008 after a win in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

Thunder at Timberwolves – The League is 0-9 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since April 08, 2008 as a home dog after a loss as a home dog when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since December 13, 1996 after a loss against the Bulls.

Jazz at Trailblazers – The Jazz are 0-6-1 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since April 08, 2003 when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game at home tomorrow. The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (14.0 ppg) since March 25, 2008 when their DPS was minus 15 points or less in their previous game. The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since April 12, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.

Hawks at Warriors – The Hawks are 9-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since February 25, 2009 after a loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since March 24, 2009 when they scored at least 25 fewer points in their previous game than in the game before. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since February 09, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field.