NBA vs. Super Bowl Props
By Kevin Rogers
Super Bowl XLIV is slowly approaching as the betting windows will be busy over the next few days. Of course there's plenty more to bet on past the side and total between the Saints and Colts. There's even more when you sort through individual player props and how many field goals will be kicked in the game. The cross-sport props make things extra fun for gamblers, as two events are tied into the bet, but studying hard can make you some side cash this weekend. Let's take a look at a handful of cross-sport props involving the NBA, courtesy of our friends at Sportsbook.com.
Colts' points (-3 ½) vs. Kobe Bryant points vs. Blazers on 2/6
Saints' points (+1 ½) vs. Kobe Bryant points vs. Blazers on 2/6
We'll knock two birds out with one stone here. Bryant is beat-up right now, with several broken fingers on his shooting hand and a sprained ankle. The Lakers travel to Portland on Saturday night, as Bryant is coming off a five-point performance against the Bobcats on Wednesday. In Kobe's last 14 games, the Lakers' all-time leading scorer has tallied 30 points or less on 11 occasions.
The Colts and Saints rank near the top of the NFL in points scored, and neither defense is particularly strong. Indianapolis put up at least 27 points in 11 games, while New Orleans scored over 27 points in 13 contests.
There's never any doubt that Bryant will give all his effort, but his body is not close to 100%. With the grind of the NBA season and the Lakers pretty much in control of the West, Bryant may not be playing as many minutes, thus his scoring numbers may decrease. Also, the Lakers will be playing the second end of a back-to-back following Friday's game against Denver.
I'll 'fade' Bryant in this spot and take each of the Super Bowl teams to outscore the Lakers' star.
Saints/Colts combined points (+1 ½) vs. LeBron James/Kobe Bryant points on 2/6
Pretty much the same rationale applies for this prop, as we add the league's reigning MVP. James and the Cavs host the Knicks on Saturday night, as the King is averaging 27.5 points/game his last eight at home. LeBron usually saves his best games for the Knicks, but that's when they play at Madison Square Garden, and this contest is in Cleveland.
The Saints have played in eight games with a combined total of 59 points or more, and even though the Colts haven't been involved in as many high-scoring contests as New Orleans, that goes to Indianapolis' competition.
The Cavs will likely be favored by double-digits, as Cleveland is expected to roll New York. That may mean a cutback of minutes for James down the stretch. We're assuming if James and Bryant each equal their scoring average, it would be a combined 60 points. If the two stars finish with 50 or even 55 points, it's not asking much for New Orleans and Indianapolis to put together more points than James and Bryant.
Peyton Manning's longest completion (-8 ½) vs. Kevin Durant points vs. GS on 2/6
The beauty of this prop is you have the entire game to cash if you lay the number with Manning. From the opening kickoff until the final whistle, Manning can connect on a pass of any yardage. On the flip side with Durant, the Thunder star won't likely score 50 or 60 points, even if Oklahoma City went overtime with Golden State.
To be safe, let's assume Durant puts up 40 points (he has done so four times this season). Manning would need at least a 49-yard completion in this scenario to cash this prop. The Saints have allowed seven passing plays of at least 49 yards this season, including four that went over 60 yards.
Manning connected with his receivers on twelve plays of at least 35 yards this season, and six plays of at least 48 yards. In Indianapolis' Super Bowl XLII victory over Chicago, Manning and Reggie Wayne hooked up for a 53-yard touchdown strike.
Durant lit up the Warriors last Sunday night for a season-high 45 points, but is averaging 28 ppg in four career games at Oracle Arena in Oakland. The 40-point threshold is almost worst-case scenario, as Durant is likely going to finish in the low-30 range against Golden State.
Facing a defense that has allowed plenty of big plays with the game's best quarterback at the helm makes the play on Manning very enticing.
Kings/Raptors first quarter points (+3 ½) vs. Pierre Garcon receiving yards
Sacramento and Toronto play one of the two Sunday games in the NBA prior to the Super Bowl, as the Raptors and Kings tip off at 12:30 PM EST. This will be the first of three road games for Sacramento, so the early tip may be a factor for a sluggish start.
Both these teams have averaged at least 50 points in the first quarter in their respective home/away roles. Toronto has averaged 51.4 ppg in the first quarter of the last 13 home games, while Sacramento is averaging 50 ppg in the opening quarter of the previous eight road contests.
In Toronto's four early tip-offs at home this season, the average points tallied in the first quarter is 48.7 ppg. Both these defenses aren't exactly stellar, allowing 105 ppg. While the entire game is irrelevant to this bet, it still shows how up-and-down these teams can go in the first quarter.
Garcon is coming off a record-breaking 11 catches in the AFC Championship victory over the Jets, while racking up 151 yards. However, Garcon has only nine games over 50 yards this season. That's important since it's likely the Kings and Raptors will combine for between 50 and 55 points in the first quarter on Sunday. Garcon has the ability to make big plays, but he is also one of four major threats (Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie) that Manning has at his disposal.
I'll take the Kings and Raptors to tally the points in the first quarter, while outdoing Garcon's receiving yardage.
Chris Bosh free throws made (- ½) vs. total touchdowns between Colts and Saints
The Raptors' star ranks sixth in the league in free throws made per game with 6.9. Bosh has been a bit inconsistent with his trips to the line recently, making seven or more free throws only three times the last 11 games. The good thing is if Bosh gets to the line, he'll likely sink the foul shots, converting nearly 79% of the time.
In the 18 games Indianapolis has played, there has been an average of 5.05 touchdowns/game combined. Only three times have the Colts and their opponent totaled eight or more touchdowns.
The Saints started the season on fire with plenty of touchdowns - offensive, defensive, and special teams. New Orleans and its opponents combined to score an average of 7.7 touchdowns the first seven games of the season. However, the last 11 games have seen a significant drop in that department, sinking to 5.8 touchdowns a contest.
Bosh's best free throw numbers come in Sunday's situation against Sacramento. The Kings are struggling mightily as they sit well below .500. When Bosh and the Raptors face a team that is under .500, the All-Star forward averages 7.5 makes from the foul line. In eight day games, Bosh is averaging eight made free throws a game.
I'll side with Bosh on this prop to drill more free throws than combined touchdowns between Indianapolis and New Orleans.
For more cross-sport props, including college basketball, NHL, golf, and soccer, check out Sportsbook.com.
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Sunday's Slate
By Chris David
Super Bowl XLIV will garner all the attention on Sunday but gamblers do have a couple options before the big game kicks off, including a pair in the NBA. If neither of the two contests catches your eye, then be sure to check out the 11 cross-sport proposition wagers offered up at Sportsbook.com.
Let’s take a closer look!
Sacramento (16-33 SU, 25-22 ATS) at Toronto (27-23 SU, 25-25 ATS)
On paper, this afternoon matinee looks like a lopsided matchup and the oddsmakers agree. Toronto has been installed as an 8 ½-point home favorite for Sunday’s non-conference battle and it’s hard to argue against the home team. The Raptors have gone 18-6 SU and 14-10 ATS in Canada this year, and they’ve been tough outs in Sunday affairs too.
Sacramento owns a dismal 3-21 SU record on the road this year. Surprisingly, they managed to post a 13-10 ATS ledger over this span. Even though the Kings have dropped five straight entering today’s battle, they did play well in losses at Utah (94-101) and at Denver (109-112) during this skid.
The Raptors swept the season series against the Kings last year, which included a 16-point victory (113-97) at Air Canada Centre. The ‘over’ cashed in both affairs and is on a 3-1 run in the last four encounters between the two.
With the Super Bowl being played, all of the times have been pushed up and most would believe that will affect Sacramento in this spot, especially with a 12:00 p.m. EST tip, which is 9:00 a.m. PST time for the Kings.
Plus, Toronto should be rested for this contest, having four days off since its last game. And, the team is expected to get Hedo Turkoglu (eye) and rookie DeMar DeRozan (ankle) back in the lineup on Sunday.
Orlando (33-17 SU, 22-23 ATS) at Boston (32-16 SU, 19-29 ATS)
The fourth and final regular season battle between the Magic and Celtics takes place Sunday from TD Garden. Orlando captured two of the three first meetings, including a 96-94 victory on Jan. 28 at home. Boston managed to cover as a 3 ½-point underdog and the combined 190 points barely squeaked ‘over’ the closing total of 189 ½. Even though this ‘over’ cashed, the ‘under’ was on a 6-0 run in this series.
Orlando was on a bit of a roll, winning seven of eight, but the club was caught looking ahead on Friday as it fell to Washington (91-92) at home. The ‘under’ has gone 7-2 in the Magic’s last nine games and all nine opponents haven’t been able to crack the century mark during this stretch.
Boston has ripped off three straight victories albeit against the Wizards, Heat and Nets. Still, the three victories were preceded by three consecutive losses. Doc Rivers’ team hasn’t found their groove yet this season and gamblers have watched them go 3-8 ATS in their last 11. At home, the Celtics have gone 15-8 SU but they’re just 6-17 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 12-10.
Super Bowl XLIV Props vs. NBA from Sportsbook.com
Who Will Have More?
1) Tyreke Evans (Kings) Points +3.5 (-115)
vs.
Drew Brees (Saints) Completions -3.5 (-115)
2) Chris Bosh (Raptors) Points+Rebounds +0.5 (-115)
vs.
Peyton Manning (Colts) Pass Attempts -0.5 (-115)
3) Chris Bosh (Raptors) Free Throws Made 0 (-115)
vs.
Saints/Colts Total Touchdowns 0 (-115)
4) Kings/Raptors 1st Quarter Points +3.5 (-115)
vs.
Pierre Garcon (Colts) Receiving Yards -3.5 (-115)
5) Dwight Howard (Magic) Points +8.5 (-115)
vs.
Saints Points -8.5 (-115)
6) Dwight Howard (Magic) Points +14.5 (-115)
vs.
Colts Points -14.5 (-115)
7) Dwight Howard (Magic) Free Throws Attempted 0 (-115)
vs.
Saints/Colts 1st Quarter Points 0 (-115)
8) Paul Pierce (Celtics) Points -6.5 (-135)
vs.
Saints+Colts Margin of Victory in Super Bowl XLIV +6.5 (+105)
9) Kendrick Perkins (Celtics) Points -2.5 (-115)
vs.
Matt Stover (Colts) Total Points +2.5 (-115)
10) Ray Allen (Celtics) Free Throws Made -0.5 (even)
vs.
Peyton Manning (Colts) TD Passes +0.5 (-130)
11) Rajon Rondo (Celtics) Points=Rebounds+Assists -1.5 (-115)
vs.
Saints Points +1.5 (-115)
Sunday's Best NBA Bet
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (N/A)
The Boston Celtics needed some extra help from the bench to knock off the sad-sack New Jersey Nets Friday, winning 96-87 but falling short as 12.5-point favorites. Boston had to fight back in the final two frames after trailing 55-51 at halftime. It allowed New Jersey to shoot 63 percent in the first half, trimming that to 44 percent for the game.
“We pretty much got what we wanted on offense,’’ Kevin Garnett told the Boston Globe. “(But) when we started the game, we didn’t come out with the energy to get them out of here.’’
The Celtics can’t afford a slow start defensively against the Orlando Magic, who have a bad taste in their mouths after Friday night. The Magic allowed the Washington Wizards to battle back from 21 points down and steal a 92-91 win on a last-second shot from Caron Butler as 12.5-point underdogs in Orlando Friday.
"It is flat-out unacceptable," Magic guard Vince Carter told the Orlando Sentinel. "Unfortunately, when you have slippage like that, you're going to lose a buzzer-beater."
With both teams tightening up their defense, bettors should expect points to be at a premium Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Under
Orlando (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) at Boston (32-16, 19-28-1 ATS)
The Celtics look to add to their three-game winning streak when they welcome the Magic into TD Garden for this Eastern Conference showdown.
Orlando had its four-game winning streak snapped on Friday when the lowly Wizards went to Florida and scored a 92-91 upset as 12½-point underdogs. Dwight Howard led the way with 20 points and 18 rebounds but the Wizards’ Caron Butler hit the game-winner with less than a second to play. The Magic are 14-12 on the road this season but just 8-18 ATS.
Boston has followed a three-game losing streak with its current three-game winning streak (1-2 ATS). The Celtics beat New Jersey 96-87 at home on Friday but came up short as 12½-point favorites. Ray Allen led the way with 26 points and seven rebounds while Rajon Rondo added 17 points and 11 assists.
Orlando has taken two of the three meetings this season, including a 96-94 home win on Jan. 28, but it fell short as a 3½-point favorite. These two met in Boston on Nov. 20 with the Magic scoring an 83-78 upset as six-point pups. The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 series clashes in Boston, but the road team has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups.
The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against Atlantic Division teams and 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday contests, but they are on pointspread slides of 4-9-1 on the road, 2-7-1 on the highway against teams with winning home records and 0-3-1 after a straight-up loss. The Celtics are in a plethora of ATS ruts, including 2-8-1 overall, 4-16-1 at home, 1-5-1 after a non-cover, 0-4-1 after a day off and 0-5-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
Orlando is on several “under” streaks, including 20-8 overall, 20-8 on the road, 21-7 after a straight-up loss, 35-16 after a non-cover, 9-2 on Sundays and 4-0 against Eastern Conference teams. Boston is on “under” runs of 10-4 on Sundays, 5-2 at home, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-2 after a non-cover. In this rivalry, the “under” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 2/7
By Dan Bebe
Kings @ Raptors - Toronto by 8.5 with a total of 215. Let's get one thing out of the way - this side is pretty fair. The Kings are spiraling, and they are one of the worst road teams in the entire NBA. This is an interesting game because Toronto is like an aged, skilled version of Sacramento. Both teams like to get up and down the floor; both teams like to claim they play a little defense every once in a while; both teams win at home. The difference, though, is that Toronto is better at scoring, better at playing team defense, and better at winning at home. So, is all that enough to give the Kings almost double-digit points as the dog? These teams have not met yet this year, but Toronto has crushed Sacramento in Canada for about the last decade, though admittedly, they haven't played that often. Toronto has been decent as a favorite this year, so this isn't necessarily a "bad" line for them, though there isn't a ton of "value" on the side of the Raptors, thanks mostly to the fact that they've been winning. Toronto has won 6 of 7 games, but they've failed to cover their last 2, starting to hit that point where they won for long enough that they've become slightly overvalued. That's not to say that they won't cover, but I don't believe backing Toronto here is a winning long term proposition. I'm not sure backing Sacramento is, either, since they could easily lay an egg. Basically, if Sacramento plays tough, they cover, if they don't show, they don't; it's 50/50. I believe Toronto's team defense, which was improving near the turn of the decade, has devolved a bit as we enter February. They are 13-5 O/U in their last 18 games, so the scoring is up, but the opponent's score is up, as well. The Kings suffered through a terrible scoring month in January, and I think it's largely on the shoulders of Kevin Martin. He's not getting any lift in his shot, and to a certain degree, he's disrupting the offense. Down the line, he's obviously a help, but right now, he's slowing things down. Here's the bottom line - the Kings average 106 ppg at home, and 97 on the road. Opponents score 105 ppg in both locations, so it's pretty obvious why they don't win away from home - they can't shoot! It's always a little dangerous to back a team traveling clear across the country, and the Kings, while a young, excitable club, might be thinking a little bit about getting to that All Star break, and trying to get some practice days in, and get the offense back in rhythm. Tyreke Evans is playing hurt, so you know he wants a day or two off. Oh, and this one is at noon eastern time, 9am pacific. You think the Kings really want to be up at the crack of dawn on the east coast, a time when some of these go to sleep in the offseason? I think there may be some value on the Under in this one, since even minor defense from Toronto should result in a few clunkers from the Kings, and I think Toronto wins by 9-10, which means slight lean to the Raps.
Magic @ Celtics - This line is OFF. I always enjoy these huge games, especially right now, while you have two teams that are winning, but not really covering, and these titans, each normally a team that you have to pay a premium to bet on, losing that premium for just one day. This game has Celtics written all over it, if Boston wants to split the season series. Of course, Orlando is coming of an embarrassing loss at the hands of the Washington Wizards, so will they be pissed or will they continue to stink? I'm not a huge fan of picking a side in this one, especially since I believe Boston will have to cover a small spread, and this game may very well be decided in the final few seconds. I lean just slightly to the Celts, as they started playing some strong basketball in the final quarter against Jersey, and I think they get fired up for this one, and I also think oddsmakers have a strong grasp of the totals in these Magic-Celtics games, now. The last one fell within a point of the posted mark (posted total, 189; final total, 190), so I think oddsmakers will give us an indicator of where they expect this one to end up with the line they bring out. These teams tend to play very slow, ugly games, so I wouldn't be surprised to see another Under, especially on Superbowl Sunday, when no one is going to be paying attention to basketball, even on the big stage in Boston. I expect less-than-lively crowds, and I expect Boston to play well enough late to make it a winner. I also think the lack of energy on the part of both teams is going to lead to some missed jumpshots early, and even if the pace picks up, I think it's going to be very low scoring early. I lean Boston and Under.
Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer
Magic at Celtics – The Magic are 9-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since April 06, 2004 as a road dog off a home loss in which they led by 10+ points. The Magic are 5-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since March 31, 2006 as a dog with at least one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a four-game winning streak. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since March 08, 2006 when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led by a least fifteen points. The Celtics are 0-13 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since February 29, 2008 at home after losing the previous matchup in which Kendrick Perkins had more turnovers than assists.
Kings at Raptors – The Kings are 0-9 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since December 02, 1997 on the road after a home loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Kings are 8-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since April 26, 2004 as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Kings are 8-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since February 07, 1999 with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. The Raptors are 8-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since January 02, 2009 at home with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since February 14, 2003 as a home favorite with at least one day of rest off a win as a home favorite in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since January 09, 2009 with at least a day of rest after a win in which Chris Bosh played more than 40 minutes.