NBA News and Notes Sunday 3/14

What Bettors Need To Know: Celtics at Cavaliers
By RICKY DIMON

Talk the talk, walk the walk

After seeing his team lose two straight games, 86-84 at Milwaukee Tuesday and 111-91 at home against Memphis one day later, Boston head coach Doc Rivers came up with a bit of trickery for motivation.

Rivers read quotes from a newspaper about a team playing with a lack of focus, a lack of urgency and without the appearance of being able to make another trip to the NBA Finals. Quotes from the Celtics, themselves, right?

Wrong.

“Then I told them it was the LA Times and it was from Phil Jackson, Lamar Odom, Kobe Bryant –it was their comments,” Rivers told the Boston Herald. “They all laughed because they thought it was them. I even asked, ‘Do you guys remember saying that?’ and guys were saying, ‘Yeah, I said that.’ And it wasn’t them, it was actually somebody else.”

“Doc did the majority of the talking, but he opened up the floor to everybody to give their two cents and we just spoke freely,” Kevin Garnett said of the meeting prior to Friday night’s home game against Indiana. “It was the first time in a while that we’ve done that.”

It paid off in the form of a 122-103 blowout victory over the Pacers. Boston (41-23, 25-37-2 ATS) came out blazing, led by 20 points at halftime and cruised the rest of the way behind 20 points from Paul Pierce and 15 apiece from Nate Robinson and Michael Finley.

Return of the King

LeBron James returned Friday from missing two games with an ankle injury, leading the Cavaliers to a 100-95 win at Philadelphia. Although he was not at his very best, LeBron scored 23 points on 7-of-18 shooting while dishing out 10 assists and grabbing eight rebounds.

“I felt a little off rhythm,” James admitted to reporters. “My wind was a little off, but it felt great to get back on the court with the guys.”

It must feel great for the Cavaliers (51-15, 32-33-1 ATS) as well. They lost for the first time in seven games when James missed his first game of the season, losing 92-85 at Milwaukee last Saturday. Cleveland then squeaked past the Spurs 97-95 Monday.

While LeBron is back in action, not all is well in Cleveland.

Infirmary report

For the Cavs, Mo Williams (shoulder) and Delonte West (back) have also returned, but Shaquille O’Neal (thumb) is out for at least another month and Antawn Jamison is questionable with a knee injury, which is the reason why there is no early line on the game. Jamison (17.0 points, 7.5 rebounds in 10 games with Cleveland) did not travel with the team to Philadelphia but the Associated Press reported on Saturday that he felt fine and expects to play.

Boston’s injury woes have been significant at various times this season, but the team is enjoying its healthiest moment right now. The Celtics have no problems to report.

Prior engagements

The Celtics and Cavs have met twice this season and the road team has prevailed each time. Boston scored a season-opening 95-89 victory as a 5-point underdog in Cleveland on October 27. Playing without West, the Cavs got 38 points from James but saw the Celtics drain 9-of-19 (47 percent) shots from beyond the arc.

Cleveland returned the favor on February 25, going into Boston as a 2.5-point favorite and coming away with a 108-88 win. Behind a James 36-point performance, the Cavs outscored the Celtics 35-14 in the fourth quarter.

Trending topics

The Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six against Eastern Conference opponents.

The Cavs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.

Neither Boston (30-33-1 O/U) nor Cleveland (31-32-3 O/U) has been a strong over/under play this season. The under is 4-1 in Boston’s last five against the Eastern Conference and 7-2 in its last nine road games. The under is also 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four overall.

Head-to-head, the Cavs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against the Celtics. The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams in Cleveland.

Boston (41-23, 25-37-2 ATS) at Cleveland (51-15, 32-33-1 ATS)

The Cavaliers, sporting the league’s best record, take on the Celtics in a meeting of two of the Eastern Conference’s top teams at Quicken Loans Arena.

Cleveland has won eight of its last nine SU, despite LeBron James sitting out two contests (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) to rest his body and a sore ankle. James returned Friday night with 23 points and 10 assists in a 100-95 victory at Philadelphia, but the Cavs failed to cover as a 7½-point road chalk, taking their fourth straight ATS setback. Cleveland is 28-4 at home where it is averaging 103.7 ppg on solid 50.5 percent shooting at home, while allowing 94.2 ppg on 43.6 percent shooting. However, the Cavs are a dismal 13-19 ATS at Quicken Loans Arena.

Boston ended a two-game hiccup (1-0-1 ATS) by hammering Indiana 122-103 Thursday night as a nine-point home favorite. The Celtics are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven outings, and they’ve actually played much better on the road (22-11 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) than at home (19-12 SU, 8-22-1 ATS). For the season, the Celtics are averaging 97.6 ppg on the highway (47.6 percent shooting) and surrendering 93 ppg (43.9 percent).

These teams opened the season against each other in Ohio, and the Celtics stole a 95-89 victory as a five-point road underdog, ending a 9-0 SU run by the home team in this rivalry. However, the Cavaliers returned the favor two weeks ago in Boston, rolling 108-88 as a 2½-point pup. The Cavs are 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 clashes, and despite coming up short at home in the season-opener, they’re 5-1 ATS in the last six Cleveland meetings. Also, the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS run.

Along with their current 0-4 ATS skid, the Cavaliers are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 at home and 2-5 against winning teams, but the still carry positive ATS streaks of 4-1 against the Atlantic Division, 10-4 on Sunday and 17-7 at home against teams with a winning road record.

The Celts, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six roadies and 4-1-1 in their last six in the Eastern Conference, but are otherwise on ATS purges of 8-17-2 overall, 0-3-1 on Sunday, 0-3-1 against winning teams, 3-12-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 3-10-2 after a day off and 4-11 after a spread-cover.

Cleveland is on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 after a non-cover and 42-15-2 on Sunday, though the over is 7-1 in its last eight against Atlantic Division foes. Boston is on a bundle of “under” rolls, including 7-2 on the road, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 in the East, 12-5 on Sunday and 29-14 against teams with a win percentage above .600. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five in Cleveland, the lone exception coming back in the Oct. 27 season debut.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER

Utah (42-23, 40-22-3 ATS) at Oklahoma City (40-24, 38-26 ATS)

Two of the league’s best spread-covering units collide when the Jazz head to the Ford Center to take on the Thunder.

Utah was on a 5-1 SU and ATS roll before losing to Milwaukee 95-87 Friday night as a one-point road pup. Over the past five games, including three on the road, the Jazz have averaged 111.4 ppg, well above their season average of 103.1 ppg, while allowing an even 100 ppg, just a bucket more than their season average of 97.8 ppg. Going back to Jan. 6, Jerry Sloan’s squad is 23-7 SU and 21-6-3 ATS, including 11-5 on the road (12-3-1 ATS).

Oklahoma City has won four in a row and seven of its last eight games (5-3 ATS), including a 5-0 SU run (3-2 ATS) on its home floor. On Tuesday, the Thunder beat New Orleans 98-93 laying 7½ points at home, and they followed that by squeaking past lowly New Jersey 104-102 Friday as a hefty 11-point chalk. Oklahoma City is outscoring foes by about six ppg on average at the Ford Center (101.0-95.4), where the team is 21-11 SU but just 17-15 ATS.

Utah has cashed in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU), most recently losing on the road 87-86 on New Year’s Eve, but covering as a three-point underdog. The ‘dog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 matchups, and the road team is on a 6-2 ATS run.

The Jazz, with the league’s second-best ATS record, are on nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 34-14-3 overall, 16-4-2 in the West, 15-5-1 on the highway (12-3-1 last 16), 20-7-3 against winning teams, 11-4 after a day off, 21-6 after a SU loss and 19-7 after a non-cover. The Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last dozen Sunday tilts, but are otherwise on ATS upswings of 6-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 11-3 against winning teams and 37-16 after an ATS defeat.

Utah is on multiple “over” runs, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 coming off a SU loss, 5-1 on the road, 13-3 against the Northwest Division and 4-1 in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall, 4-0-1 on Sunday, 8-1 after a SU win and 4-1 after a day off, but the under for the Thunder is on surges of 6-2 in division play and 7-3 against winning teams.

Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last 10 meetings overall and four of the last five in Oklahoma City.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer

Pacers at Bucks – The Pacers are 9-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since November 21, 2007 after a double digit loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 13, 2008 after a road loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four. The Bucks are 9-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since April 01, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

Celtics at Cavaliers – The Celtics are 10-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 16, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they had at least 12 steals. The Celtics are 8-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since January 30, 2009 on the road when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games. The Celtics are 6-0 ATS (21.5 ppg) since March 03, 2007 on the road when they scored at least 25 more points in their previous game than in the game before.

76ers at Heat – The 76ers are 0-8 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since February 17, 2009 on the road after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The 76ers are 0-7 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since December 26, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field.

Timberwolves at Kings – The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 23, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Kings are 7-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since January 14, 2008 after a game at home in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.

Bobcats at Magic – The Bobcats are 0-8 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since January 07, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they shot less than 40% from the field.

Hornets at Suns – The Hornets are 0-7 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since March 09, 2009 on the road when facing a team they lost to as a home favorite in their previous same-season match-up.The Suns are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since March 13, 1997 with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

Jazz at Thunder – The Jazz are 9-0-1 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 02, 2008 when they scored at least 25 fewer points in their previous game than in the game before.

Raptors at Trailblazers – The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since December 23, 2006 when they are playing in at least their fourth straight road game and they have no rest. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-6.0 ppg) since March 12, 2008 when facing a non-conference team they lost to at home in their first match-up of the season. The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since January 24, 2000 at home with at least one day of rest after a road win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

NBA RoundUp For 3/14
By Dan Bebe

Pacers @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 9.5 with a total of 202.5. We had that odd game about 3 weeks ago where the Bucks went into Indiana as a 2-point road favorite and won by a bucket. That line was one of the true head-scratchers of the last month or so, and I avoided it. Here, we have a line that makes more sense, in my opinion. The Bucks are probably the hottest team in the NBA -- they've won 5 in a row and 11 of 12 straight up, and their last 3 wins were at home over Boston, Cleveland (no Lebron, though), and Utah. Those are three very impressive victories. So, the question here is whether Milwaukee can get the juices flowing for a game with the pathetic Pacers of Indiana. I happen to think they will. The Bucks are rolling, and this is the final game of that 4-game homestand before Milwaukee embarks on a 3-game roadie out West. Indiana, meanwhile, has a banged up Danny Granger that is probable to play, but certainly not 100%, and they're pretty much running out the clock on 2010. They also pushed Milwaukee to the brink in that game mentioned above. I think Scott Skiles makes sure his guys take the Pacers seriously this time, and this one could be a blowout. I lean weakly to the Bucks, and weakly to the Under, as Milwaukee is on a 5-game under run, and they've been imposing a defensive will on games, which might even be more impressive than the wins themselves.

Cavaliers @ Celtics - This line is OFF. I would love to find a way to back the Celtics in this game. There, I said it. Boston is about as undervalued as they're ever going to be, but the obvious concern is whether or not they're actually good enough to keep a game with a superior team like Cleveland remotely close. Boston had been dinking and doinking along for a bit, losing on the road in Milwaukee, then at home to the Grizzlies before picking up an easy winner over the hapless Pacers in their last game. The biggest issue with the Celtics, though, is not that they can't win games. Boston is still a decent team, but they just don't seem to have the firepower on offense to keep up with superb offensive clubs, or the lateral mobility on defense to stymie the better teams in the NBA, at least not like in years past. Still, with Lebron just working his way back into top form, I happen to think the Cavs are going to be a bit overvalued here, when the line does finally decide to show up. Cleveland is coming off a road win, but failed cover in Philadelphia, and they've actually covered only 1 of their last 4 games, and that was the screwball win over the Spurs. The Cavs beat Boston on the road about 2 and a half weeks ago, so there is a measure of revenge for the Celtics, and I happen to think Boston is the team with more to prove, especially in a big game setting. I think we'll see Boston getting potentially as many as 7-8 points, and that's a ton to cover in an early game. I lean Celtics, and we all know how I feel about Boston in big game situations -- they're going to try to make this game as ugly as possible. I lean Under.

Jazz @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 1.5 with a total of 204.5. This is the game of the night, from a purely basketball-enjoyment standpoint, and as evidenced by the fact that I'm breaking it down early (not Sunday morning - read the opening few paragraphs if this doesn't make sense), indicates that I do have a lean on it. That lean is to the Thunder. I realize after watching the NBA every day all season long, this lean seems obvious to the loyal blog-folk, but quickly, the reasoning: Oklahoma City is coming off a narrow 2-point win over the Nets, a trademark sign of a look-ahead. The Thunder had blown out the Hornets prior to the game with Jersey (and as has been noted by Denmarkok, the Hornets are actually a very emotional opponent for the Thunder), and so that Nets game was really the sandwich. So far, so good - we leaned Thunder in the game against New Orleans, leaned Nets in the next one, and if the sandwich completes itself with another "bun", we like the Thunder here. Interestingly, Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko are both questionable, and even more interestingly, the Thunder might be the toughest opponent in the League for the Jazz. Utah has lost to Oklahoma twice already this year, though both of those games were back in 2009. The Thunder are stronger now, and the Jazz are on the last game of a road trip - they're coming off a loss in Milwaukee, which can also stifle momentum. And that is why the lean is as such on the side. The total feels high, since these teams have played fairly slow games both times this year, but perhaps oddsmakers believe one or two quarters end up as shootouts - tough to say, though I still think the importance of this game is going to cause Oklahoma to bring the defense, and keep this Under.

Hornets @ Suns - Phoenix by 8.5 with a total of 211.5. I'll take "Teams That Can't Cover" for $200, please. The Hornets have lost 7 straight, ATS. The Suns have lost 3 in a row. Which team will buckle first? There really isn't any value in this game, and my feelings that the Hornets just have nothing left in the tank are being confirmed. I'm doing this write-up early, because I would recommend staying away from the side in this game. These teams have indeed met 3 times already this year, and Phoenix has taken 2 of those 3, including the most recent meeting, February 1, in New Orleans. So, you could say there's a measure of revenge, but I happen to think this line is pretty accurate. Phoenix might bounce back off the tough loss to the Lakers and blow the Hornets out by 25, or there's about a 50/50 shot Phoenix has a letdown for, say, the first half of this one, the Hornets race out to a lead, and Phoenix has to battle to win by 5 or 6. I just don't like those odds - coin flips are long term losers, and I would recommend a No-Play on the side. On the total, well, the clear problem with liking the over is that the Hornets just haven't been scoring against anyone with a player listed over 6'10" on their team. The Hornets have eclipsed 100 points just 1 time in their last 10 games, and it was against the Warriors. They've scored exactly 100 points a few times in there, but for the most part, the tiring offense of New Orleans is leading to final scores in the mid-90's. That means we'd need 115 from Phoenix to get to the total, and I don't think the Suns are going to care to hang that kind of number. I lean Under.

Raptors @ Blazers - Portland by 8.5 with a total of 203. This game has one glaring angle that needs to be pursued -- the Raptors complete and utterly absurd inability to function on zero sleep. I mean, there are some bad teams in the NBA, and there are some very old, rickety teams in the NBA, and none of them compares to Toronto's ineptitude in these spots. They are 3-12 ATS in back-to-back games, and Toronto's not that awful overall. They're 29-33 ATS on the season, but a good deal of those recent losses came with Chris Bosh out. Bosh or no Bosh, Toronto loses by an average of almost 12 points when they're playing back-to-back games on the road, and by over 10 in all back-to-back spots. This also happens to be the final game of their current road trip before the long flight back to Canada, where we'll see Toronto take a couple days off before hosting the Hawks. To be perfectly fair, the value isn't great on either side in this game. The line of 8.5 is probably about a half-point of line value for the Raptors, if anything, and it really makes me wonder why we're getting such a fair line. It could have something to do with the focus on College ball right now, but sometimes it's best not to look a gift horse in the mouth. I lean Portland. I know it's a revenge game for Toronto, but let's be honest, how badly do the Raptors really want this game? On the total, I'm inclined to look at the Over, since Toronto's defense on back-to-back games is just abysmal.

Tips and Trends

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers

Celtics: Boston continues to try to climb up the Eastern Conference playoff standings, but they appear to lack the killer instinct they've had in years past. Boston has lost 2 of their past 3 games SU, and are currently 41-23 SU this season. Boston is currently 4th in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. The Celtics are 22-11 SU and 17-15-1 on the road this season. Boston is 6-5-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Boston lost by an embarrassing 20 PTS at home when they faced Cleveland less than a month ago. The Celtics have really struggled this season when revenging a home loss, as they are only 3-5 ATS in this specific scenario. Boston is only 7-11 ATS in the 2nd half of this season. Prior to their last game, the Celtics had scored 91 PTS or fewer in 3 consecutive games. All 5 starters average double figures in PTS this season for Boston. F Paul Pierce leads the team with 17.6 PPG this season. PG Rajon Rondo is having a breakout season, as he's averaging 14.2 PPG and a team high 9.8 APG while shooting better than 50% from the field.

Celtics are 3-12-1 ATS last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-1 last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 94 (SIDE of the Day)

Cavaliers (-7.5): Cleveland continues to simply dominate the entire NBA, as they've won 8 of their past 9 games SU entering today. Cleveland has played amazing defense over their past 9 games, allowing only 1 opponent to score triple figures in PTS. The Cavaliers have the overall best record in the NBA at 51-15 SU. Cleveland is the only team in the NBA with 50 or more wins this season. The Cavaliers have a 4.5 game lead over Orlando in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Cleveland is 28-4 SU and 14-18 ATS at home this season. The Cavs play their best basketball against the best teams in the NBA, as they are 20-11 ATS against teams with a winning record. Cleveland is only 8-9 ATS in the 2nd half of the regular season, including a current streak of 4 consecutive ATS losses. The Cavs had won 11 consecutive home games against the Celtics until they lost earlier this season SU. F LeBron James leads the NBA in scoring at 29.9 PPG this season. James enjoys playing against Boston, as he's averaging 37 PPG and 8.5 APG in 2 games this season.

Cavaliers are 17-7 ATS last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 7-1 last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.

Key Injuries - F Antawn Jamison (knee) is probable.
C Shaquille O'Neal (thumb) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 95

New Orleans Hornets at Phoenix Suns

Hornets: New Orleans is simply reeling, as they have lost 8 of their past 10 games SU. A few weeks ago the Hornets were jockeying for playoff positioning in the Western Conference. Now the Hornets are sitting in 11th place, 7 games behind the 8th and final playoff spot. The Hornets are 32-34 SU and 30-35-1 ATS overall this season. The Hornets are 11-22 SU and 16-17 ATS on the road this season. New Orleans is 21-18 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Today will mark the beginning of the Hornets longest road trip of the season. Unfortunately, the Hornets have lost their past 6 road contests SU. F David West leads the current active Hornets players, averaging 19 PPG this season. West has had back to back 30 point outings, and is shooting 64% over his past 3 contests. G Marcus Thornton continues to be a bright spot for the Hornets, as he has led all Hornets bench players in scoring for the past 13 games. New Orleans is still struggling to score, as they've been held to 95 PTS or fewer in 4 of their past 6 games.

Hornets are 1-9-1 ATS last 11 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 8-3 last 11 road games.

Key Injuries - PG Chris Paul (knee) is out.
F James Posey (flu) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 104

Suns (-8, O/U 211.5): Phoenix has played .500 ball over their past 6 games SU entering tonight. Phoenix has lost 2 of their past 3 games SU at home, something that just can't happen if they want to challenge for a top seed in the Western Conference. Currently, the Suns are 40-26 SU and in 6th place in the playoff standings in the Western Conference. The Suns are 24-9 SU at home this season, including their 2 recent defeats. Phoenix is also 17-15-1 ATS on the road this season as well. Phoenix is 23-19 ATS as the listed favorite this season. The Suns are an impressive 12-5 ATS the 2nd half of the season thus far. The Suns had scored over 100 PTS in 9 straight contests before their last game against the Lakers. Phoenix leads the NBA in scoring with 109.3 PPG this season. The Suns are the only team in the NBA that shoot better than 40% from the 3 point line this year. 3 different Suns players have made more than 100 3 pointers this season, led by C Channing Frye. Frye has made 139 of them while shooting 43.4%.

Suns are 9-1 ATS last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 7-1 last 8 vs. a team with a losing SU record.

Key Injuries - C Channing Frye (suspension) is probable.
PG Leandro Barbosa (wrist) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 118 (OVER - Total of the Day)