Sunday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The final Sunday of March provides NBA bettors with ten games to wager on, including several key night tilts. Two non-conference games take center-stage with the Magic hosting the Nuggets, while the Spurs travel to Boston. Also, the Blazers look to avenge a home loss to the Thunder when the two teams hook up in Oklahoma City. We'll start things in South Florida with the suddenly-hot Heat entertaining the slumping Raptors.
Raptors (35-36 SU, 32-39 ATS) at Heat (39-34 SU, 37-35-1 ATS)
Miami is turning up the heat at just the right time with four consecutive wins as Toronto invades the American Airlines Arena (6:00 PM EST). The Heat pulled off a sweep of a three-game road trip with double-digit victories at New Jersey, Chicago, and Milwaukee. Miami will now try to even the season series with Toronto at two games apiece.
The Raptors are still sitting in the eighth position inside the Eastern Conference playoff race, but Toronto is 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS the last 11 games. Jay Triano's club dropped consecutive home games to the Jazz and the Nuggets, as Denver burned Toronto with a last-second jumper. The Raptors are riding a nice 'under' run, doing so in five straight games.
The Heat is protecting their home-court much better than they were earlier in the season by winning seven of nine. Miami is helping bettors cash as a home favorite with a 4-1-1 ATS run at the AAA, including three covers as 'chalk' of 6 ½ points or more. This contest is in an odd scheduling spot as the Heat plays six road games surrounding this matchup. Miami hits the road again on Wednesday for a three-game trip that begins in Detroit.
The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS in the season series as the Heat beat down the Raptors, 115-95 back on December 15. Toronto avenged that loss with a 111-103 home victory in late January, as the Raps were in the midst of a 7-1 SU run at the time. The 'over' has profited during the last two seasons between these teams, hitting in six straight meetings.
Nuggets (48-25 SU, 31-37-5 ATS) at Magic (51-22 SU, 39-33-1 ATS)
Denver continues a five-game road trip as it travels south to Orlando, looking for a season sweep of the Magic (6:00 PM EST). The Nuggets ended a two-game skid with Carmelo Anthony's buzzer-beating shot against the Raptors on Friday, but Denver is now 0-7 ATS the last seven games. The Magic took care of business against the lowly Wolves at home, but failed to cover as hefty 15 ½-point favorites.
The Nuggets are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS the last four on the front-end of a back-to-back, as Denver travels to Dallas for a crucial showdown with the Mavs on Monday. Denver's offense has slumped recently by scoring below 100 points in five of the last six games, which has resulted in five 'unders.'
The Magic are coming off consecutive non-covers, but that is unusual for Stan Van Gundy's team over the last two months. Since January 30, Orlando is 8-2 ATS off an ATS loss with the two defeats coming in SU wins over the Lakers and Wolves. The Magic has stepped up their defense in March, limiting 11 of their last 12 opponents to less than 100 points. The lone team to break that barrier was the Heat, but Miami needed overtime to reach 102 points in a six-point Magic victory on March 18.
The Nuggets ran the Magic out of the Pepsi Center, 115-97 on January 13 as 5 ½-point favorites. Orlando concluded that road trip at 1-3, but the Magic are 25-7 since that horrendous trip. Denver's 82-73 win at Amway Arena last February snapped a 13-game losing streak in Orlando which dated back to 1994.
Blazers (43-29 SU, 38-32-2 ATS) at Thunder (44-27 SU, 42-29 ATS)
These two Northwest Division rivals are fighting to the end for better positioning in the Western Conference playoff race (7:00 PM EST). The Blazers are hitting their stride right now with 11 wins in their last 14 games, while the Thunder is coming off a pair of dominating performances over the Rockets and Lakers.
Oklahoma City is fresh off two revenge victories, snapping a 13-game skid against Houston and a 12-game losing streak to Los Angeles. The Thunder is the hunted on Sunday evening as OKC took care of Portland at the Rose Garden on February 9 with an 89-77 victory. Scott Brooks' squad is 7-2 ATS the last nine at home against teams currently above .500.
The Blazers will be on the second of a back-to-back following Saturday's game at New Orleans. Portland has been tremendous with no rest this season, compiling a 13-3 SU/ATS mark. On the flip side, the Thunder is 2-8 ATS when facing teams without rest, including recent losses to the Bobcats and Thunder as favorites.
Since blowing a 25-point lead in an overtime loss to the Jazz on February 21, the Blazers are 5-3-1 ATS and 6-3 SU as a road underdog. Some may argue that Portland has simply cleaned up against mediocre-to-poor competition in this stretch, as nine wins have come against teams below .500. However, the Blazers need every win they can get to avoid the eighth spot and a date with the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs.
In Portland's last trip to the Ford Center back on November 1, the Blazers put together one of their best defensive efforts by limiting the Thunder to 34% shooting from the floor in an 83-74 triumph. Nine of the last ten meetings between these teams have finished 'under' the total dating back to Kevin Durant's rookie year in Seattle in 2007.
Spurs (43-28 SU, 37-33-1 ATS) at Celtics (47-25 SU, 30-40-2 ATS)
San Antonio concludes a rough stretch over the last week as the Spurs head to Boston to take on the Celtics (8:00 PM EST). Gregg Popovich's team came back to beat the Cavs on Friday, avenging a two-point loss at Cleveland earlier this month. Now, the Spurs will try exact revenge for a home setback to the Celtics on December 3.
Boston has won six of seven since falling at Cleveland two weeks ago, pushing the Celtics ahead of the Hawks for the third seed in the Eastern Conference. The C's are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight at home coming off the embarrassing loss to the Nets in late February.
The Spurs' gauntlet this past week has consisted of wins over the Thunder and Cavs, but losses to the Hawks and Lakers. Similarly to Portland, San Antonio went through a nice stretch of wins over less than substantial opponents, pushing the Spurs to the seventh spot in the West. San Antonio is a profitable 6-4 ATS the last ten games as a road underdog, dating back to mid-January.
The road team has ruled this series recently with six of seven victories coming from the away club. Boston slowed down San Antonio at the AT&T Center, 90-83, the fourth straight win for the C's in the Alamo. The Spurs knocked off the Celtics last February in Boston, 105-99 as 6 ½-point underdogs. Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner each put in 23 points in the victory for San Antonio, who won despite allowing Boston to shoot 50% from the floor.
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Denver (48-25, 31-37-5 ATS) at Orlando (51-22, 39-33-1 ATS)
After snapping their three-game losing skid on Friday, the Nuggets now look to make it two in a row when they visit Amway Arena for a battle with the Magic.
Denver got a buzzer-beating 18-foot jumper from Carmelo Anthony on Friday night to beat the Raptors 97-96 in Toronto, but came up short as a 5½-point favorite. The Nuggets have now failed to cash in seven straight games, including four in a row on the highway. The win was their first since March 18 and first on the road since a 125-108 victory in Memphis on March 13.
The Magic got 24 points and 19 rebounds from Dwight Howard in a 106-97 home win over Minnesota on Friday, but fell short as a 15½-point chalk. Orlando has won eight of nine on its home court (6-3 ATS) and 29 of 36 (20-16 ATS) at the Magic Kingdom this season.
Orlando has dominated the Nuggets in Orlando, going 18-3 SU at Amway Arena since it opened in 1989, however one of the losses was last season when Denver came in and scored an 82-73 victory as a seven-point pup, ending a nine-game road losing skid in this rivalry. Earlier this season, the Nuggets also took a 115-97 home win over the Magic, easily cashing as 5½-point favorites and moving to 4-2 ATS in the last six head-to-head clashes. The home team is on a 13-3 ATS streak in this rivalry, including Orlando’s 8-1 ATS run at Amway.
Denver is 13-6-3 ATS in its’ last 22 as a road ‘dog and 3-0-2 ATS in its last five Sunday tip-offs, but it is on ATS skids of 4-10-3 after a straight-up win, 0-6 after a non-cover, 0-7 against Eastern Conference teams and 0-4 on the highway. Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against Northwest Division squads, but on ATS streaks of 6-2 on Sunday, 6-2 as a chalk, 8-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home against teams with losing road records.
The Nuggets are on several “under” streaks, including 5-1 overall, 19-9 as road pups, 4-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 after a non-cover and 36-17 as underdogs. The Magic are also on a plethora of “under” runs, including 34-16-1 overall, 37-17-1 against the Western Conference, 8-1-1 at home, 22-8 on Sunday, 49-19-1 after getting a day off and 23-9-1 as favorites. The “under” has also been a consistent play in this series lately, going 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four matchups in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Portland (44-29, 39-32-2 ATS) at Oklahoma City (44-27, 42-29 ATS)
The surging Trail Blazers, who are in the thick of the playoff picture and looking for their third straight win, head to the Ford Center to face the Thunder.
Portland has won seven of its last eight (4-3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 112-101 victory in New Orleans, easily getting the cash as a 3½-point favorite. Blazers All-Star Brandon Roy went 12-for-14 shooting and finished with 28 points and LaMarcus Aldridge added 24 as Portland shot 58.6 percent from the floor and outrebounded the Hornets 35-25. Portland is now 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) in its last six roadies.
Oklahoma City comes off its most impressive win of the season, crushing the Lakers 91-75 at home Friday as a one-point underdog. The Thunder led by as many as 30 points before Los Angeles rallied late to make the final respectable. Kevin Durant had 26 points and eight rebounds for Oklahoma City, while point guard Russell Westbrook delivered 23 points and six assists.
These teams have met twice this season with the road team getting the victory each time. Portland came into Oklahoma City on Nov. 1 and took an 83-74 win as a three-point favorite, then the Thunder returned the favor on Feb. 9, winning 89-77 as a 1½-point road chalk. The Blazers have won and cashed in four of the last five meetings and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in those five.
Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against Northwest Division teams, but on ATS runs of 12-4-1 on the road, 38-17 when they have to play the second night of a back-to-back, and 4-1-1 overall. Oklahoma City is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 on Sunday, but on positive ATS runs of 14-5 against winning teams, 6-1 against the Western Conference, 11-1 as a favorite of up less than five points and 4-0 at home against teams with winning road marks.
The Blazers have stayed below the posted number in six of eight as an underdog, but they are on “over” streaks of 7-1 on the road, 9-3 on the second night of a back-to-back, 14-6 as road ‘dogs and 5-2 on Sunday. The Thunder have topped the total in five of seven as a chalk, 10 of 14 after a day off and five of eight overall, but they are on “under” runs of 13-3-2 against winning teams and 17-8 as a home favorite of five points or less. Finally, in this series, the “under” is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings and 12-3-2 in the last 17 clashes on the Thunder’s home court.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
San Antonio (43-28, 37-33-1 ATS) at Boston (47-25, 30-40-2 ATS)
The Spurs play the first game of a quick, two-day road trip at TD Garden in Boston, battling the suddenly surging Celtics.
San Antonio has alternated wins and losses in its last seven contests (4-3 ATS), including getting a big home win on Friday over the Cavs, 102-97 as a one-point ‘dog. The Spurs received a big effort from Manu Ginobili, who had 30 points, six assists and six boards. The victory followed a tough home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, when they were dominated in the second half of a 92-83 setback as two-point favorites.
Boston has won six of its last seven (5-2 ATS), including Friday’s 94-86 home win over the Kings, coming up short as an 11-point chalk. The big three of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined for 60 points and 25 rebounds and point guard Rajon Rondo dished out 18 assists. The Celtics have now won five straight at home (4-1 ATS).
In this series, the road team has won six of the last seven (5-2 ATS), but the Celtics have won five of the last six overall and cashed in six of the last seven. Back on Dec. 3, Boston traveled to San Antonio and scored a 90-83 upset as a one-point underdog. In fact, the pup has gotten the cash in seven straight series clashes.
The Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against Atlantic division teams and 0-6 ATS in their last six Sunday games, but they are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 11-3 overall, 6-2 on the road, 5-2 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 after a day off and 7-3 after a spread-cover. The Celtics have cashed in five of six as a chalk, five of seven overall and four of five after a non-cover, but they are on negative ATS trends of 19-39-1 at home, 6-13-2 after a day off, 8-20 as a home chalk, 5-12-1 against Western Conference teams and 0-4-1 on Sunday.
San Antonio has topped the total in four of six overall and three of four as a pup, but it is on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 as a road ‘dog, 10-4 after a spread-cover, 9-4-1 on Sunday and 6-1 against the Atlantic division. Boston has gone above the posted number in seven of eight after a non-cover, but stayed below it in eight of 10 after a straight-up win, four of five against the Southwest Division and nine of 13 against the Western Conference. The “under” is also on a 5-3 run in these head-to-head clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 3/28
By Dan Bebe
Kings @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 13.5 with a total of 197.5. No real lean on the side, as neither team is in a good or bad spot, and this is a ton of points, so I suppose you have to at least give a look to the dog. I like the Under on the total - the Kings continue to struggle to score without Tyreke Evans, and the Cavs' defense isn't going to make life any easier.
Grizzlies @ Bucks - This line is OFF. Most likely because of Bogut. Milwaukee has lost 2 straight, so they're slumping, but a few wins would secure them the 5th spot in the East, and the Grizzlies are basically done for the year. SLIGHT lean to Milwaukee, but not much. Seems like off that ugly game with Miami, the Bucks are going to want to score a few points, so I have a slight lean to the Over, if the line is reasonable.
Pacers @ Hawks - Atlanta by 8 with a total of 207. Obviously, I'm not happy with Atlanta coming off a loss, but with the Lakers coming to town, this is a slight look-ahead spot for the Hawks, and a low spread indicates oddsmakers feel the same. Slight lean to Indiana. The total looks low, but I think it's pretty accurate - if I had to guess, I'd think this one ends at about 209, so the TINIEST lean to the Over.
Raptors @ Heat - This line is OFF. The Heat are actually playing great basketball right now, especially on defense - the Raptors keep getting burned, and they stink on the road. Lean to Miami. Toronto has been struggling to score, but they have dictated the tempo in the 3 previous games with the Heat, somehow. I don't think Miami lets this one turn into a running game, and I lean Under.
Bulls @ Pistons - Detroit by 2 with a total of 198.5. This line is basically saying Chicago has given up on the season, hasn't it? I know they're on back-to-back, but Chicago is in must-win spots, and Detroit is "white flag" mode on 2010. I have to lean Chicago, even though it looks nuts. I'll be honest, on the total, I have no idea what tempo the Pistons are looking to play at right now. No lean on the totals.
Nuggets @ Magic - Orlando by 5.5 with a total of 208.5. Something tells me the Magic win this one, and the final margin is within 1.5 points of the spread; it's not how this one handicaps out, but it's a gut-check type of play. Denver needs to get its head out of its rectum, though, because the Magic have the talent to run all over the Nuggets if Denver keeps trying to run isolation plays. Slight lean to the Magic, and medium lean to the Under, since we know how Denver's been scuffling on offense, and we know how the Magic like to handle big games.
Blazers @ Thunder - Oklahoma by 4.5 with a total of 191.5. The Thunder are coming off a ruthless beating of the Lakers, and I happen to think they're overvalued - lean to Portland to give them all they can handle. Lean to the Blazers. These teams have played great defense against each other this season, so far - the law of averages would seem to indicate a higher scoring game, and Portland tends to run a bit more on back-to-back. Tiny lean to the Over right now, but that could change with new info, so stay tuned on this one.
Suns @ Wolves - Phoenix by 9 with a total of 227.5. Phoenix beat Minnesota by 38 in that crazy 266-point game 2 weeks ago. The Wolves have looked pretty bad lately, and without any good reason to back them, I think you have to start with the road favorite at this time of the season. Microscopic lean to the Suns. The total could very well be higher after the 266 points, but it's not - look for Phoenix to "d-up" a little - lean to the Under.
Spurs @ Celtics - Boston by 3.5 with a total of 192. I'm floored at how little this spread is, but I happen to think it's just a soft line. Boston is a decent value, playing great ball at home, and I know it's obvious, but at this time of the season, the obvious plays are winning pretty consistently. Lean to Boston. The total of 192 is pretty accurate, but I think Boston really locks down in a strong effort - lean to the Under.
Warriors @ Clippers - LA by 5 with a total of 230. Clippers don't even want to be playing any more, but off the horrific loss to Dallas, the Warriors are going to be pissed and set to take out some aggression. Lean to Golden State. The total of 230 seems awfully high considering the Clippers pathetic offense, but something about this number makes me think oddsmakers believe the Clips are going to get sucked into a streetball game, with nothing on the line. Lean to the Over.