Sunday's Best NBA Bet
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks
New York head coach Mike D’Antoni says his team’s offense remains a work in progress. Judging by a pair of losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers over the past few weeks, that’s an understatement.
D’Antoni told reporters this week the addition of Carmelo Anthony means the team is going to run many, many more isolation plays than earlier this year. Also, with guard Chauncey Billups a few steps slower than even the recently-departed Raymond Felton, the offense will be forced to be more deliberate in its approach.
"We’re always going to be a little bit of an iso, one-on-one kind of a team, which, to be honest with you, is pretty good," D’Antoni said. "I think we’ll meet some place halfway in between, because we don’t want to lose what Melo and those guys do the best. A lot of it is going one-on-one. They’re the best in the league at it."
But how effective will that style be against the Hawks?
Not very. Anthony is just 29-for-73 from the floor in his past four games against the Hawks (2-2) and has scored much more effectively against Atlanta over that span by getting to the foul line. Expect the team’s offense to eventually gel with Billups and Anthony. Just don’t expect it to be in Atlanta.
Pick: Hawks
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By David Chan
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-5, 188)
The carousel of clashes between top teams in the Eastern Conference continues to go round and round, as the Bulls and Heat square off for the third time this season Sunday. Miami is at home and has a chance to avenge a pair of recent losses in Chicago. The Bulls prevailed 99-96 on January 15 to push the 3-point spread and they pulled out a 93-89 win as 3-point underdogs on February 24.
LeBron James missed the first contest (which explains why the Heat were dogs in January before being favored a month later), in which Derrick Rose poured in 33 points to subdue the visitors. James had 29 points and 10 rebounds in the second showdown, but Rose went for 26 and Luol Deng added 20 points and 10 boards.
Chicago has two wins over Miami this season.
Miami had serious rebounding issues in both games against Chicago. The Bulls won the board battle 42 to 30 in the first meeting and dominated it 53 to 39 (including 13 to 6 on the offensive end) in the second one.
Cooling of the Heat, running of the Bulls
The Heat have been up and down this season and that’s kind of putting it nicely. They started out bad, recovered with a mid-season streak and are approaching downright terrible of late. Miami has been consistent in one department: Failing to beat good teams.
Erik Spoelstra’s club has not defeated a team above .500 (and nobody better than 27-34 Indiana) since it got the best of Orlando more than a month ago on February 3. The Heat have lost five in a row to winning opponents, including a current three-game slide that features a blown 24-point against the Magic Thursday and a 125-95 humbling at San Antonio Friday.
“We’re still a confident bunch,” James told the Palm Beach Post after losing to the Spurs. “We know it’s a tough stretch for us right now. We lost three games in a row, but I feel like all it takes is one win.”
Looking at the schedule, it’s hard to figure where that win will come. Miami still has eight consecutive games against winning teams (they don’t play a sub-.500 team until Detroit on March 23) and it starts with the streaking Bulls.
Chicago has won three of four (3-1 ATS), eight of 10 (8-2 ATS) and 14 of 18 (13-5 ATS). The team is coming off an impressive 89-81 win at Orlando Friday, as it pounded the Magic 50 to 30 on the glass while Rose went for a game-high 24 points.
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The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference.
The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
The under is 5-0 in Chicago’s last five overall and 0-4 in its last four road games.
Head-to-head, the home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last four at home against the Bulls.
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (-2.5, 191.5)
Like Miami, Los Angeles will also be looking to avenge a pair of losses when it goes up against San Antonio for the third time this season.
With home-court advantage on December 28, the Spurs made mincemeat out of the 3.5-point spread and dominated the Lakers 97-82. They took to the road as 3-point underdogs on February 3 and edged L.A. thanks to an Antonio McDyess tip-in at the buzzer.
Tim Duncan (eight points, eight rebounds) was almost non-existent in the thriller, but Tony Parker contributed 21 points and L.A. shot a wretched 2 of 14 from beyond the arc. Duncan (two points, two rebounds in 30 minutes) was even more invisible in the first contest, but Parker led four Spurs in double figures with 23 points while DeJuan Blair had 17 points and 15 boards. Kobe Bryant shot just 8 of 27 from the floor.
The Lakers have lost twice to the Spurs this season.
Home cooking
The Spurs are 29-2 at home this season (just 16-14-1 ATS because they are always such heavy favorites) and have not lost at the AT&T Center since way back on November 26 to Dallas. San Antonio punctuated its 22-game home surge with Friday’s humiliation of the Heat.
In addition to enjoying the friendly confines of their home court on Sunday, the Spurs also have Parker back from a calf injury that sidelined him for two games. He was expected to miss at least a week, but he returned Friday and delivered 15 points and eight assists in the dousing of the Heat.
“He did a great job,” head coach Gregg Popovich told the San Antonio Express-News. “It’s great to have him back. He ran the show well and got us started out by moving the ball and being active. He was great.”
“That’s what he’s been doing all season for us,” Duncan added. “Running that point guard position, making the right passes and right plays, and finishing when he has to. We did a great job as a team moving the ball; getting it to wide-open shooters.”
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The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall and 6-0 ATS in their last six against the Western Conference.
The over is 6-1 in the Spurs’ last seven overall.
Head-to-head, the under is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings in San Antonio. The under is 20-6 in the last 26 overall encounters between the two teams.
Sunday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Sunday NBA card is highlighted by a pair of elite teams looking to get over the hump against a thorn in their side. The Lakers are heating up with six straight victories as the two-time defending champs try to beat the Spurs for the first time in three tries. First off, the Heat attempts to snap a three-game skid, while playing with double-revenge against the Bulls.
Bulls at Heat
It's pretty evident that Miami can take care of its business against subpar competition with a 29-2 record against below .500 teams. However, the Heat are in the midst of an 11-game stretch playing clubs that are currently in the top-eight of each conference. Miami hasn't performed well with three straight losses to New York, Orlando, and San Antonio as the Heat looks to break through against the Bulls.
Chicago responded on Friday night with an 89-81 victory at Orlando as short underdogs after a meltdown as road favorites at Atlanta two nights before. The Bulls' defense has stepped up since allowing 118 points in a loss at Toronto on February 23 by limiting each of the last five opponents to less than 100 points, while the 'under' has cashed in all five games. One of those victories came over Miami at the United Center on February 24, as the Bulls made a substantial rally to pick up a four-point win.
The Heat led the Bulls by nine points at the half in their last meeting, but Chicago came back with an impressive 27-14 run in the third quarter to take the lead heading into the final quarter. Following spurts by each team, Luol Deng's late three-pointer coupled with a brick by LeBron James in the final seconds gave Chicago its all-important second win over the Heat this season. The number that stuck out like a sore thumb was the 1-for-18 effort from the field by Chris Bosh, while James and Dwyane Wade combined for 63 points.
Miami needs some sort of lift on Sunday after getting run out at San Antonio on Friday, 125-95 as two-point 'dogs. A 36-12 hole for the Heat following just one quarter of play was an obvious sign that Miami was still hung over from giving away a 24-point lead in a 99-96 setback to the Magic. From an ATS perspective, the Heat has turned into a tough team to back with five consecutive non-covers since a blowout of Sacramento in the first game following the All-Star Game.
The Bulls have played well in the underdog role this season at 12-4 ATS, including a 9-2 ATS mark when getting 5 ½ points or less. On the flip side, the Heat is 9-3 ATS in the favorite range from 4 to 5½ points, even though one of those losses came to Orlando on Thursday. Another key to Chicago's success this season is the 17-9-2 ATS ledger against teams above .500, while winning 17 of those 28 contests.
Lakers at Spurs
The two teams that have represented the Western Conference in 11 of the last 12 NBA Finals meet at the AT&T Center. The Spurs received a nice surprise in Friday's blowout of the Heat with Tony Parker back in the lineup after the point guard missed the previous two games with a calf injury. San Antonio goes for the trifecta on Sunday afternoon against Los Angeles, as the Spurs have knocked off the Purple and Gold twice this season.
The Lakers and Mavericks are the only teams in the NBA that has not lost since the All-Star break, as Los Angeles looks to extend its winning streak to seven with a victory at San Antonio. Phil Jackson's club has been a profitable team to back since an unforgivable loss at Cleveland, by putting up a 5-1 ATS mark the last six games. The lone ATS defeat came Friday night in a 92-84 victory over Charlotte as the Lakers failed to cover as 12½-point 'chalk.'
The Spurs covered their second straight game following a five-game ATS skid with Friday's convincing victory over Miami, while cashing the 'over' for the sixth time in seven contests. Since the All-Star break, the Spurs are just 1-3 ATS at the AT&T Center after failing to cover in victories over the Thunder, Nets, and Grizzlies.
These two old rivals have played to a pair of 'unders' this season, while San Antonio has won both at home and on the road. The Spurs cashed as 3½-point favorites on December 28 at the AT&T Center by a 97-82 count. Los Angeles rallied from an early nine-point deficit to take a two-point halftime advantage, but the Spurs limited the Lakers to 38 second-half points and 35% shooting overall from the floor.
San Antonio pulled off a solid 89-88 road win during its Rodeo Trip at Staples Center in early February. Antonio McDyess was the hero with his tip-in at the buzzer, helping the Spurs cash outright as +150 underdogs. The Southwest Division leaders shot just 41% from the field, while Tim Duncan was 3-of-12 from the floor for eight points. The Spurs' defense did an excellent job on Kobe Bryant by limiting the former scoring champion to 16 points on 5-of-18 shooting.
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Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs
LAKERS: Los Angeles hasn't lost since the All Star break, as they're a perfect 6-0 SU. The Lakers are playing with a sense of urgency that hasn't been seen since the playoffs last season. Los Angeles is 44-19 SU and 30-32-1 ATS this year. The Lakers have lost both meetings with the Spurs this year SU and ATS, so revenge in certainly on their minds today. Los Angeles is 22-11 SU and 18-15 ATS in road games this year. The Lakers are 1-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Los Angeles has been winning thanks to a stifling defense, as they've held their past 4 opponents to 95 PTS or fewer. For the season, the Lakers are allowing just 95.6 PPG, 8th fewest in the league. G Kobe Bryant is again leading the Lakers in scoring, as he's averaging 25.1 PPG. F Lamar Odom is having a career year, as he's averaging 14.5 PPG and 9 RPG off the bench for Los Angeles. The Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Lakers are 6-0 ATS last 6 games against the Western Conference.
Under is 20-6 last 26 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - G Derek Fisher (elbow) is probable.
Projected Score: 97 (SIDE of the Day)
SPURS: (-2.5, O/U 191.5) San Antonio is coming off arguably their finest performance of a world class season. The Spurs simply throttled the Miami Heat from the opening tip, ultimately winning 125-95 SU. San Antonio has the best record in the NBA at 51-11 SU. The Spurs currently have a 5.5 game lead over Dallas in the Western Conference. San Antonio is a very profitable 36-24-2 ATS overall this year. The Spurs are 29-2 SU and 16-14 ATS overall this season. San Antonio is 29-21 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 2-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 PTS or fewer. San Antonio is averaging 103.7 PPG this year, 6th most in the NBA. G Manu Ginobli is averaging team highs of 18 PPG and 1.6 SPG this year. F Tim Duncan is averaging 13.4 PPG and a team high 9.1 RPG this season. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the NBA Pacific. San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. San Antonio is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Spurs are 8-2 ATS last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Under is 11-3 last 14 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 94
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
CELTICS: (-7.5 O/U 182.5) Boston has won 4 consecutive games SU heading into tonight's nationally televised game. The Celtics currently have a 3 game lead in the race for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Boston is 45-15 SU and 29-29-2 ATS overall this year. The Celtics are 18-10 SU and 15-13 ATS on the road this season. Boston is 2-3 ATS as a road favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this year. Tonight would be a classic letdown spot for such a powerful team, except for the fact this is an ESPN game. G Paul Pierce leads the Celtics in scoring this year, averaging 19.1 PPG. 6 different Celtics players average double figures in PPG this year, proving just how balanced this offensive attack is. Boston is allowing an NBA low 91.7 PPG this year. Facing the NBA's worst offense should give the Boston another chance to showcase their dominant defense. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Eastern Conference. Boston is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Celtics are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Boston is 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win. The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Boston is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a losing SU record.
Celtics are 11-1 ATS last 12 Sunday games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - G Glen Davis (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 91 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
BUCKS: Milwaukee is facing adversity right now, as they have to decide whether to save their season or simply throw in the towel. The Bucks have fallen on hard times, as they find themselves in 10th place in the Eastern Conference with a 23-37 SU record. Milwaukee is also 26-32-2 ATS overall this season. The Bucks have been very inconsistent offensively this year, as they are averaging an NBA low 91.4 PPG. Milwaukee is 15-15 SU and 12-17 ATS in home games this year. The Bucks are 1-0 ATS this year as a home underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS. PG Brandon Jennings is the only Milwaukee player that is averaging more than 15 PPG this year. Jennings is averaging team highs of 15.5 PPG and 4.7 APG this year. F John Salmons is averaging 13.8 PPG for the Bucks this year, 2nd most on the team. The Bucks are 21-3-2 ATS in their last 26 games against the Atlantic division. Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games games against a team with a winning SU record. Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bucks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bucks are 5-1 ATS last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 12-2 last 14 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bogut (ribs) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 81