NBA News and Notes Sunday 3/7

Inside the Paint - Sunday
By Chris David

Gamblers looking to chase or press their bets Sunday night have limited options, which include three games on the pro hoops hardwood. The Wizards and Celtics tip off the festivities at 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN, while Denver and Portland conclude the televised double-header at 10:35 p.m. EST. One other board game starting at 9:00 p.m. EST features Oklahoma City visiting Sacramento.

Let’s take a closer look!

Washington (21-38 SU, 23-33 ATS) at Boston (39-21 SU, 23-36 ATS)

The Wizards showed a little bit of fire after unloading half their roster at the trade deadlines. Flip Saunders and company went 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS with the new faces, which included impressive home wins over the Bulls and Nuggets. Unfortunately, Washington’s talent gap has started to show and it was evident in a home-and-home sweep to the Bucks (87-100, 74-102) this week.

Now the Wizards will try to get back on track Sunday against a Boston squad that is quietly coming together again. After going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in three straight games at home the previous week, the Celtics have won and covered three in a row. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com opened Boston as a healthy 13-point favorite against Washington.

Boston has gone 17-11 SU at TD Garden this season, but its 7-21 ATS ledger is the worst in the league. Washington brings a 9-19 SU and 11-14 ATS road record into Sunday’s battle.

As expected the Celtics are big favorites in this matchup against Washington. Including the two meetings this season at Verizon Center, Boston has won five straight (4-1 ATS) in the head-to-head series against the Wizards. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 ‘over’ this stretch.

Washington’s attack has been held under 100 points in four of its last five, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1. Boston was on a 5-0 ‘over’ roll but its defense (83 PPG) stepped up in the last two wins and both games went ‘under.’ The total on tonight’s matchup is hovering between 193 and 194 points.

After this battle, Boston gets a nice test on Monday with a visit to Milwaukee. Washington returns home for a battle versus Houston.

Portland (37-27 SU, 35-27 ATS) at Denver (41-21 SU, 28-31 ATS)

Sunday’s finale from Denver could be a potential first round playoff battle, depending how each team finishes the last quarter. This will be the third meeting between the pair this season, and the first played in Colorado. The Nuggets captured a 97-94 decision at the Rose Garden on Oct. 29, but the Trail Blazers avenged that loss with a 107-96 victory on Christmas. The total went 1-1 in the first two encounters.

Portland shouldn’t have any issues with fatigue for this matchup, since its last matchup came on Wednesday when the club blasted Indiana 102-79 as a nine-point home favorite. Even though the victory was against the Pacers, it was still impressive considering the team just returned from a five-game road trip that saw the team go 4-1 both SU and ATS. The Blazers are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on three days of rest or more this season.

Including those recent four wins away from home, Nate McMillan’s squad has produced a solid 17-14 SU and league-best 20-10 ATS ledger on the road. Despite the quality record, wining at Denver has been a tough out for every team this year. The Nuggets have outscored opponents by an average of 10 PPG (112-102) at home this season, which has produced a 27-5 SU and 16-15 ATS record.

The Nuggets are coming off a wire-to-wire 122-114 home victory over the Pacers on Friday. Denver gave up a bit in the final 12 minutes (32-25), which helped Indiana backers cover the 11-point number. ‘Over’ bettors saw their tickets cash for the fourth straight home game for Denver, as the combined 236 easily eclipsed the closing number of 221.

Denver has been installed as a six-point ‘chalk’ for Sunday, while the total is sitting at 206.

Looking at the Nuggets’ upcoming slate, most would believe that the team would have a strong sense of urgency against Portland. After this battle, the team gets two days off before starting a four-game road trip that will be played over six days. None of the opponents seem scary (Wolves, Hornets, Grizzlies, Rockets) on paper, but the Nuggets’ road mark (14-16 SU, 12-16 ATS) is below average.

Portland has a welcoming schedule on the horizon too, with the next five battles against the Kings twice, Warriors, Raptors and Wizards.

Sunday Sandwich

Nestled between these televised games is another Western Conference showdown between Oklahoma City (37-24 SU, 36-25 ATS) and Sacramento (21-41 SU, 33-27 ATS) from ARCO Arena.

If the playoffs started today, Kevin Durant and the Thunder would earn the sixth seed in the Western Conference. Along with Durant’s talent, the main reasons for Oklahoma City’s success can be pointed to a solid road record (18-13 SU, 20-11 ATS) and their ability to beat up on sub .500 clubs.

Since the All-Star break, Oklahoma City has gone 7-3 SU and 4-6 ATS. Of those seven wins, the only eye-opening victories came against Dallas (99-86) and Toronto (119-99), but keep in mind Chris Bosh didn’t suit up for the Raptors. The other five wins were against hacks, including a home win versus Sacramento (113-107) this past Tuesday.

The Kings lost, but they did manage to cover as 10 ½-point favorites. Unless you follow the NBA nightly, you probably wouldn’t be aware that Sacramento is on a 5-0 ATS run (3-2 SU) and three of the covers came on the road.

ARCO is always a tough venue for opponents and Sacramento (15-14 SU, 15-13 ATS) has taken advantage of the atmosphere this season. Despite those numbers, Oklahoma City has been tabbed a 3 ½-point road favorite against the Kings.

vegasinsider.com

Game of the day: L.A. Lakers at Orlando Magic
By RICKY DIMON

Road woes

The Lakers (46-17, 26-34-3 ATS) are in the midst of a tough stretch in which they play 11 of 14 games on the road through the end of March. To say it has not gotten off to a good start would be an understatement.

Los Angeles fell at Miami 114-111 in overtime Thursday before getting handled by the Charlotte Bobcats 98-83 Friday night. Not surprisingly, the Lakers were road favorites in both contests (-5 against Miami, -3.5 against Charlotte).

“On the road it's a different style of play, a different game entirely,” Kobe Bryant told reporters. “We can't take the game we play here at home and take it on the road. We'll have to adjust a little bit. You've got to keep your energy up, obviously keep the intensity, but on the road you really have to execute.”

Easier said than done for an L.A. squad that is just 17-12 (11-17-1 ATS) away compared to 29-5 (15-17-2 ATS) as hosts.

Magic men

The Magic (43-20, 33-29-1 ATS) have won four in a row and six of seven to stay atop the Southeast Division, two games ahead of the similarly-hot Atlanta Hawks. A big reason for Orlando’s success is the play of a healthy Jameer Nelson.

Over the past 10 games, Nelson is averaging 16 points and more than seven assists while committing fewer than 2.5 turnovers. Those numbers are similar to his pre-injury (shoulder) performance last season, when he was named an All-Star but got hurt prior to the game.

“I think I'm back right now,” Nelson explained after a Monday night win over Philadelphia. “I think I can play better…attacking, driving, creating problems for other teams looking for my shot or somebody else's shot; just trying to get everybody involved.”

“Everything's so wide open when he gets it going. He can finish or feed the open guys. It can make for easy games,” added Vince Carter.

Talk to the hand

Los Angeles guard Ron Artest sprained his left thumb in the loss to Miami, adding to the list of Lakers who have sustained hand injuries this season. Kobe (broken right index finger), Shannon Brown (sprained right thumb), Jordan Farmar (sprained left hand ligament) and Lamar Odom (finger) have all been down that route.

“It seems to be a hand-injury year,” coach Phil Jackson said on Friday.

Artest played in Saturday’s loss to Charlotte, but he contributed only two points and missed 8-of-9 shots. Aside from their long-standing injuries (Sasha Vujacic has a shoulder injury and Luke Walton is dealing with a bad back), the Lakers should be at full strength Sunday.

Orlando, meanwhile, has no injuries to report.

Prior engagement

The Lakers and Magic have met once this season, back on January 18 in Los Angeles. In the first encounter between the two teams since the 2009 NBA Finals, Orlando went into L.A. as a 6-point underdog and came up exactly six points short, losing 98-92. The Lakers outscored their opponents 34-24 in the fourth quarter to rally for victory.

Dwight Howard scored 24 points on 10-of-14 shooting and also grabbed 12 rebounds in Orlando’s losing effort. Kobe finished with just 11 points while going a dismal 4-of-19 from the field, but L.A. had six players in double-figures, including 22 from Brown. The Lakers also turned the ball over a mere five times.

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Los Angeles is a woeful 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Lakers are also 0-4 ATS in their last four outings as visitors.

Orlando is 3-1 ATS in its last four overall and 3-0 ATS in its last three home contests.

The Lakers (28-34-1 O/U) have been a decent under play this season while the under has definitely been the way to go with the Magic (25-38 O/U). The under is 9-3 in L.A.’s last 12 games overall and 7-1 in Orlando’s last eight overall. The under is also 4-0 in the Magic’s last four games as hosts.

L.A. Lakers (46-17, 26-34-3 ATS) at Orlando (43-20, 33-29-1 ATS)

The Lakers, looking to salvage a three-game Eastern Conference road trip and avoid their first three-game losing streak in more than two years, head to Amway Arena to face the Magic in a rematch of last season’s NBA Finals.

Los Angeles is at the beginning of stretch in which it will play 11 of 14 games on the road, and it has already dropped the first two of those games. The Lakers fell at Miami 114-111 in overtime as a five-point favorite Thursday night, then came back Friday and got trounced at Charlotte 98-83 as a 3½-point chalk. L.A. is averaging about a bucket more than its opponents on the highway this year, scoring 100 points even and allowing 98.1 ppg. That translates into a modest 17-12 road record (11-17-1 ATS).

Phil Jackson’s team hasn’t dropped three straight contests since January 2008, a stretch of 228 games (playoffs included).

Orlando has won four in a row and six of its last seven (5-2 ATS), notching three wins on the road and three at home. On Friday, the Magic topped New Jersey 97-87 but fell just short as a 10½-point road chalk, ending a three-game ATS uptick. Orlando has the NBA’s No. 1 field-goal defense (43.7 percent) and is sixth in points allowed (95.5 ppg), and over the past five games, the Magic have shot 50.1 percent and averaged 105.8 ppg, while allowing 92.4 ppg on 43.8 percent shooting.

Los Angeles has won three in a row and five of the last six in this rivalry, with four of those wins coming in the NBA Finals, and they’ve gone 4-1-1 ATS in that span. In the lone meeting this season, the Lakers won 98-92, pushing as a six-point home favorite. The Lakers are 6-1 ATS on their last six trips to Amway, the underdog is on a 10-1-1 ATS tear between these squads, and the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five clashes.

The Lakers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine Sunday starts, but the pointspread streaks spiral downward from there, including 1-7-1 overall, 0-4 on the highway, 1-4 after a SU loss, 0-5-1 after a non-cover, 2-5 as a pup, 1-5-1 against the East and 1-5-1 against Southeast Division foes. On the flip side, the Magic are on ATS rolls of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home (all as a chalk), 18-7-1 against the Pacific Division, 20-8 on Sunday, 7-3 after a day off and a lengthy 61-30-2 after a non-cover.

The total has stayed low in six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. In addition, Los Angeles is on “under” streaks of 9-3 overall, 8-1 as a pup (all on the road), 6-1 against winning teams, 7-2 on the road and 26-10 following a SU loss. Likewise, Orlando is on “under” stretches of 21-7 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk), 6-0 against the Pacific Division, 6-1 against winning teams, 20-6 laying points, 45-18 after a day off and 35-16 against the West.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER

Portland (37-27, 35-28-1 ATS) at Denver (41-21, 28-30-4 ATS)

The Trail Blazers pursue their fourth straight victory when they trek to the Mile High City to take on the Nuggets in a Northwest Division battle at the Pepsi Center.

Portland has won three in a row and five of its last six, going 4-1 SU and ATS on a five-game road trip – with the only loss coming in OT at Chicago – before returning home Wednesday night to rout Indiana 102-79 as a nine-point chalk. The Blazers have averaged 104.7 ppg in the past six games and allowed just 93, with all five wins coming by at least nine points (the last three by double digits).

Denver bounced back from losses at the Lakers and Phoenix (0-1-1 ATS) with a pair of home wins in its last two games, ripping Oklahoma City 119-90 giving seven points Wednesday and topping Indiana 122-114 as an 11-point chalk Friday. The Nuggets rate second in the league in scoring at 107.5 ppg, though they also allow 102.6 ppg (22nd). In the home jerseys, Denver’s output jumps to a whopping 112.2 ppg, while its opponents’ scoring remains the same at 102.6.

These rivals have split their last six games SU and ATS, with the home team going 5-1 ATS in that stretch, including Portland’s 107-96 victory as a one-point chalk on Christmas Day. The SU winner has cashed in the last seven meetings, the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run, and Denver has gone 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five at the Pepsi Center.

The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Northwest Division games, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 10-2 on the highway, 4-1 in the West and 6-2 as a road ‘dog. The Nuggets are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover and 37-14-2 ATS in their last 53 as a home chalk of five to 10½ points, but they are on pointspread slides of 1-3-1 overall, 9-19-1 as a favorite, 2-5-2 in the division and 1-7-2 after a SU win.

Portland is on “over” surges of 9-2 on the road, 6-2 as a road pup, 5-2 in division play and 14-6 in the Western Conference, and Denver is on “over” tears of 5-2 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk) and 5-0 giving points. However, the Blazers are on “under” runs of 5-1 against winning teams, 5-1 as a ‘dog and 26-10-1 after a break of three or more days, and the under is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six against winning teams.

Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings overall, but the over has hit in 11 of the last 16 clashes in Denver.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER

NBA Double Dip of Wagering Pleasure
Doug Upstone

The Los Angeles Lakers have been going thru the motions and are as interesting as Chat Roulette.com. The Lakers (46-17, 26-35-1 ATS) have won 11 of last 17, but are homely 4-12-1 ATS since the end of January. One of the problems with Phil Jacksons squad is they have set the motivation level on cruise control most nights and even the players are talking about having to play harder and not doing it.

They were the aggressors all night," Jordan Farmar said of the Miami players in 114-111 overtime loss Thursday night. After that defeat, L.A. sits at 3-11 ATS in road games playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Coach Jackson is uncommonly loyal to Derek Fisher, despite his inability to really defend any longer. Opposing teams routinely are able to drive past the veteran guard and the Lakers help defense has been depending on their size instead of getting into better position to blunt opponents in the paint. Collectively, they better come to play against Orlando (43-20, 31-28-4 ATS) or they will get be bedazzled by the Magic.

Orlando has won four in a row and six of seven (5-2 ATS) and coach Stan Van Gundy is starting to think about the playoffs. Not foregoing the present, rather putting his team together to create better options for the postseason.

Hes been using Brandon Bass more lately as a player off the bench. Bass was signed as free agent in the off-season and is the kind of player that is more physical. Orlando has not used him much the last couple of months, staying perimeter oriented, to keep the middle open for Dwight Howard. However, with the slower pace of the playoffs, where defensive intensity goes up several notches, as does more physical play, it is made for Bass game and gives the Magic a fresh look. He could definitely be a big plus against the Lakers.

Orlando is 16-5 ATS against Pacific division opponents since last season.

Sportbet.com has Orlando as three-point favorites with total of 195 and after their ten point win over New Jersey as 10.5-point favorites, the Magic are 8-1 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite this season. The Lakers wont face any real perimeter pressure on defense from Orlando, which isnt necessarily to their liking, as they are 5-14 ATS on the road versus defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game. Nevertheless, the Lakers are 10-6 SU and ATS in Mickeys backyard.

This renewal of last years NBA finals is on ABC at 2:30 Eastern and Orlando is 15-6 UNDER in non-conference games and the Lakers are 23-8 UNDER on Sundays.

At 10:30 Eastern on ESPN, Portland and Denver will tangle. The Trailblazers are the best bet on the NBA road this season at 20-10-1 ATS and are unlikely to catch Denver in the Northwest Division standings. That will not preclude them arriving in the Mile High City and wanting to make statement, should they meet later in the postseason.

Portland (37-27, 36-27-1 ATS) knows exactly how difficult the Nuggets are to beat at the Pepsi Center, sporting a 27-5 record (16-15-1 ATS), winning by 9.6 points per game. Nonetheless, the Blazers are 17-14 on the road and are coming off a rare break of three or more days off and they are 3-0 (2-1 ATS) in that spot. With the Nuggets 22nd in points allowed, the Portland is 8-1 ATS versus defensive teams surrendering 99 or more points per game in the second half of the season.

Denver (41-21, 29-30-3 ATS) have faced a number of strenuous opponents the last month and it shows with 8-6 mark since Feb.3. The Nuggets division has turned into a real skirmish, with Utah and Oklahoma City is hot pursuit and playing superior basketball. Denver's ineffective play has also dropped them from No. 2 to No.3 in the Western Conference and they understand that now is the time to start building momentum and reclaim second seed, so that can keep home court advantage until they might meet the Lakers again in the West finals. They are 27-10 ATS after playing consecutive home games over the last two years.

The Nuggets are six-point home faves and 19-6 and 17-7 ATS at home vs. Portland the last 14 seasons. Denver prefers the up and down pace and is 29-12 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight contests. The Blazers have had larceny in their hearts recently and are 30-14 ATS in road games after consecutive outings where they had 10 or more steals.

Since 1996, these teams are 17-7 OVER in Colorado.

NBA RoundUp For 3/7
By Dan Bebe

Sixers @ Raptors - This line is OFF. The Sixers have been absolutely awful lately. They have lost 5 straight games, by 11, 9, 21, 19 and 10, in that order, so really, it hasn't been close. And here, we have them heading into Canada for the trademark Sunday early game against an undermanned Raptors club. Still, despite Toronto's injury concerns, the Sixers are so out to lunch right now that there's no way I can advocate a play on them. They are losing badly, home and road alike, and they are, maybe, the single most underperforming team in the NBA as of this moment. That doesn't mean I like the Raptors. In fact, without Chris Bosh, they're a team lost at sea. Toronto is just 1-4 in their last 5 games, picking up a 6-point win (and failed cover) in their last game, at home, over the Knicks. They're also dealing with some nagging injuries to Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu and Jose Calderon, so times are tough in Toronto, too. This is a battle of the mediocre right now, and I would advise avoiding it. Hell, by the time we get a line on this game, you'll only have an hour or two to decide if it's a good bet, and to me, that's rushing it. You won't have time to get a good feel for bet percentage numbers, line movement, and all the good stuff we interpret between 10am and 2pm Eastern time every day. I recommend a Pass on this game. That's right, it's not a no-lean, it's a Recommended Pass - that's how strongly I feel that this game is a total coin flip. On the total, however, we are going to get some value on the Under. Toronto isn't quite running the way they usually do, probably because they don't have their inside presence to help create space for the outside shooters. The offense stagnates, possessions take more time, and after breaking 100 points basically every night from mid-January until Bosh went down, the Raptors have cracked 100 only once in their last 5 games.

Lakers @ Magic - Orlando by 3 with a total of 195. This is the big one of the day, the ABC Sunday marquee Finals rematch and revenge day for Orlando. This game is going to be a great one to watch, with the Lakers concluding the first half of a split road trip before flying home to host Toronto. I'm disappointed by the Lakers showing in their two games on this trip. We got a betting winner with Miami on Thursday in a game that the Heat clearly wanted more, but to see the Lakers get absolutely worked over by the Bobcats was a bit of a surprise. We noted multiple times how well the Bobcats play against the Lakers, but I can honestly say I was floored that Charlotte ran away with that game. I thought for sure it would come down to the final few minutes. Unfortunately, in terms of value, I would love to find a way to back the Magic on Finals Revenge and on revenge from earlier this year, but given the fact that the Lakers have looked terrible to bettors over the last 4 days, the split on this game is probably going to be significantly closer to 50/50. In fact, this line is probably a better VALUE for the Lakers. The line indicates that these teams would be equals on a neutral court, and considering the Lakers were favored by 6 points when these teams faced in Los Angeles, this development is rather interesting to say the least. You know Kobe isn't going to back down in the big ABC game, and the real point of concern is whether guys like Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol will do their part to make this game a good one. The Lakers have covered just 1 of their last 9 games, so they've been an awful ATS wager, but certainly this game is one where both teams are going to be marquee enough to nullify the "paying a premium" issue of betting on a public darling. The Magic have been a much better bet of late, winning 6 of 7 games SU and covering 5 of their last 7 ATS. So, the question becomes, is the fact that the Lakers are, for potentially the second time all year, a better value, a more important note than the fact that the Magic might very well want this one more? I can't argue with value, so I lean Lakers. On the total, both of these clubs have been trending strong to the Under against the top teams in the NBA, and with the earlier start time and the fact that both clubs should bring a top effort, I like the second half to be very low-scoring, and I lean Under.

Rockets @ Pistons - Houston by 2 with a total of 197.5. No surprise, without Al Jefferson, the Wolves were entirely unable to exploit any kind of advantages over the Rockets. Without Jefferson, the Wolves are just a crummier version of the Rockets, to be frank. Aaron Brooks is a better Johnny Flynn, Kevin Martin is better than Corey Brewer, Battier is better than Ryan Gomes, and so on and so forth, with Luis Scola posting a very strong game last night, as well. However, the Rockets have been downright terrible this year in back-to-back situations, sitting at 8-8 SU, but just 5-11 ATS. The difference is in the defense. Houston scores and allows about 101 ppg. On back-to-back games, the Rockets actually score 103 ppg, but allow 104, so the game turns into a track meet, and if the Rockets can't stop anyone from scoring, how are they going to cover spreads at home, or win on the road when those jumpers stop falling? Believe me, I would love to back the Pistons in this game, but the Rodney Stuckey situation makes me a little bit nervous about what to expect. Stuckey was playing great basketball before he passed out, and while he's supposedly okay, I doubt he plays in this one, and even if he does, he won't be at full strength. Without Stuckey, the Pistons become even more reliant on jumpers, and if Ben Wallace misses more team, the Pistons will be without their rebounder and stopper on the inside. Detroit is also coming off that emotional game with the Cavaliers. Will they suffer a letdown? Will the non-Stuckey players band together to get their fallen comrade a win? There are a ton of questions on Detroit's side, which is a shame because we really had a good read on them before Stuckey fell over. As it stands, I think Detroit plays a decent game, but I'd love them with a healthy Rodney - I lean Pistons. I lean Over on the total if indeed the Rockets can do what they usually do and turn it into a shoot out.

Wizards @ Celtics - Boston by 13 with a total of 193.5. Well this line isn't really worth touching, the side at the very least. As I've said a million times, when I'm presented with a double-digit line, I need some strong angles on one of the two teams to even consider a play. As was the case last night with the Jazz, we had a very strong fatigue angle, but what do we really have in this one? We have Washington's young players clearly tiring after a superb run when the stars were traded away. It happens every year. A team sells off their best player, or two, the youngsters realize they can play ultra hard for 2-3 weeks to secure a job for next year, then for all those days they played their hearts out and had to get IV fluids, there are an equal number of days where those players are going to need to go half-speed to keep from crumping on the court. I don't like Washington, but I don't much care for Boston, either. There is almost no value on Boston's side, as this line is colossal, given neither team is on a back-to-back, and there really aren't any strong angles to consider. Washington is technically on double-revenge in this game, but that doesn't mean anything for all these former backups playing big minutes on the Wizards now. Boston is a total clunker of a home team, ATS, but they've won, and covered 3 games in a row, and I'm not going to advise backing a team with no value, but I'm also not going to advise getting in the way of Boston potentially rattling off a few covers in a row. No leans on the side. Washington has stopped scoring, bottom line. If Boston plays at 90%, they will hold the Wizards under 90 points. I lean Under.

Thunder @ Kings - Oklahoma City by 3.5 with a total of 202.5. Dangerous spot for both teams. The Thunder are either STILL not getting the respect they deserve, or this game is a spot to be awfully careful. I would think the latter might be true. These teams played less than a week ago in Oklahoma, so it's not like we don't have some other data to go on. The Thunder were 10.5-point home favorites to the Kings and won that game by just 6, courtesy of a very impressive game from the Kings. In fact, Sacramento has quietly covered 5 games in a row, starting with a straight up home win over Utah that seemed to renew the team's joy in playing basketball. They followed that up with a home win over the Clippers, and 3 straight covers (going 1-2 SU) in Oklahoma, Houston and Dallas. Now, the Kings return home for this revenge game. I just don't know if Sacramento can possibly play any better than they did in Oklahoma City, and they still lost that game by 6. The Thunder have been an ATS monster all season, though it seems somewhat like they might have actually finally become overvalued, going 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games. I suppose a I'm a little concerned that there's been a 7-point line adjustment between games. Is that extra point a result of the Kings getting better, or revenge being precalculated into the line? Believe it or not, that ONE point of line movement is what is keeping me from making a stronger prediction. The Kings have played the Thunder pretty well this year, if we exclude the meeting way back on October 28, covering both games since, and actually winning the home game in November. I have a very small lean to the Kings to keep their ATS streak rolling along. On the total, I have a nice lean to the Under, as both teams shot over 50% in the last meeting, which sent the total way over, and yet, here we are, less than a week later, with the exact same total as before.

Blazers @ Nuggets - Denver by 6 with a total of 206. The late-night ESPN showdown in the Mile High City, and really should be a great game. The Blazers are playing their best basketball in months, having won (and covered) 5 of their last 6 games, with 4 of those decisive wins coming on the road. It's no coincidence that Portland got good again when Brandon Roy got healthy. I suppose that's the ultimate obvious statement, but it needed to be said. Now, I hear Marcus Camby might be missing a game or two, and Portland does need their one defensive-minded big man to help rebound and help slow down the wild and woolly Nuggets. Surprisingly, these teams haven't met since December, the Christmas Evening game that Portland won, at home, in front of an absolutely NUTS Rose Garden. Denver beat Portland in Oregon at the very start of the season, but it's been so long since these teams have seen one another that things are just bound to be a little different. This line doesn't make a ton of sense to me, though. I'll turn to recent games with a common opponent -- the Blazers were basically listed as 4-points better than the Pacers on a neutral court, and the Nuggest were listed as 8 points better. So, shouldn't Denver be at least a 7-point favorite in this one? Are oddsmakers really saying that the games these teams played with Indiana made Portland 1 point stronger in power rankings? Or, are oddsmakers doing the unthinkable, and actually just setting a perfectly fair line? My guess is the latter, which also means we can work off of situational and match-up angles to find a winner. I love how the Blazers have been playing on the road, but Denver is scary at home. I happen to lean to the square side and I think Denver covers by 1-2 points. This total looks eerily low, considering Denver is 19-13 O/U at home, and the only recent time Denver played a home game that didn't clear 206 was their final game before the All Star Break, and that was a screwy game to say the least. I don't like to be so square, but I lean Over, as I really don't see Portland slowing the tempo all that successfully.

Tips and Trends

Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic

Lakers: Los Angeles will look to avoid a season 1st 3 game SU losing streak. The Lakers have struggled on their current road trip, losing in OT to Miami before playing terribly against Charlotte in their last game. Losing 3 consecutive games is so rare for Los Angeles, that they haven't done so since F Pau Gasol has been on their roster. Very quietly, the Lakers are only 4-4 SU in their past 8 games. Despite their recent mediocrity, the Lakers are 46-17 SU on the season. LA leads the Western Conference playoff standings by 4 games, and have the 2nd best record in the entire NBA. The Lakers are 17-12 SU and 11-17-1 ATS in road games this season. In another losing proposition, the Lakers are only 2-6 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Lakers are only 4-11 ATS in the 2nd half of the season, with scoring a major reason why they've been struggling. The Lakers have scored less than 100 PTS in 13 of their past 17 games entering tonight. Spotty PG play has left superstar G Kobe Bryant alone in his pursuit of victory. Bryant averages 27.6 PPG this season, but has been held under that total in 5 of his 7 games since returning from injury.

Lakers are 0-4 ATS last 4 road games.
Under is 8-1 last 9 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - G Sasha Vujacic (shoulder) is questionable.
F Luke Walton (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 93

Magic (-3, O/U 195): Orlando won't need any extra motivation today, as revenge alone will have them ready to go. Orlando lost in the NBA Finals last year to the Lakers. The Magic also lost earlier this year SU in Los Angeles to the Lakers. Orlando has won 6 of their past 7 games SU to get to 43-20 SU on the season. Orlando has the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference and the 3rd best record in the entire NBA. The Magic are 24-6 SU and 16-13-1 ATS at home this season. Orlando is 21-19 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Today is only the 3rd time this season Orlando has been a home favorite of 3 PTS or less, going 1-1 ATS thus far. The Magic are 9-6 ATS since the start of the 2nd half of the season. Orlando has scored 110 PTS or more in 3 of their past 6 games. The Magic are currently 10th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 101.7 PPG this season. C Dwight Howard has simply been a man amongst boys this season, as he's had double doubles in 22 of his past 24 games. Howard averages 18.6 PPG and an NBA high 13.2 RPG this season.

Magic are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 6-0 last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 95 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

Trail Blazers: Portland is showing true grit and character, as they've won 5 of their past 6 games SU under tough circumstances. Portland had lost back to back games SU before departing on a 5 game road trip. The Blazers offense in particular responded well, scoring more than 100 PTS in each game of their road trip. Prior to that stretch of 100 plus PTS, the Blazers had only reached the century mark in back to back games this season. The Blazers are 37-27 SU this season, good enough for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference playoff chase. Portland is 17-14 SU and 20-10-1 ATS on the road this season. The Blazers are also an impressive 14-11 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Blazers have had the same exact SU and ATS result over their past 16 games. Portland plays outstanding defense, as they've held 11 of their past 13 opponents under 100 PTS. Portland only allows 94.9 PPG this season, the 3rd fewest in the NBA. 4 current Blazers average double figures in PTS this season, led by All Star G Brandon Roy. Roy averages 22.1 PPG this season and is a trademark of consistency and leadership for Portland.

Trail Blazers are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games.
Over is 9-2 last 11 road games.

Key Injuries - C Marcus Camby (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 100 (SIDE of the Day)

Nuggets (-6, O/U 206): The Nuggets bounced back from consecutive SU road losses by doing what they do best, scoring! Denver averaged 120.5 PTS over their past 2 games, both SU home wins over Indiana and Oklahoma City. The Nuggets have battled inconsistency since Coach George Karl announced his personal health issues. Denver is 41-21 SU this season, placing them 3rd in the Western Conference playoff standings. Denver is 27-5 SU and 16-15-1 ATS in home games this season. Denver is 15-17-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Nuggets are 6-5 ATS as a 3 to 6 point home favorite this season. The Nuggets only have 1 win ATS in their past 5 contests. Denver is currently 2nd in the NBA in scoring, averaging 107.5 PPG this season. Free throw shooting is a major source of PTS for Denver, as they attempt nearly 32 free throws per game this season. That's 4 more attempts per game than any other team in the NBA. F Carmelo Anthony leads the Nuggets in scoring, averaging 28.7 PPG this season. Anthony is 3rd in the NBA in scoring, and is coming off consecutive 30 point outings.

Nuggets are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - F Kenyon Martin (knee) is doubtful.
G Ty Lawson (shoulder) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 102

Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer

Wizards at Celtics – The Wizards are 10-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since January 26, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since November 22, 2008 after a home loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

Thunder at Kings – The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 22, 2008 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS (14.0 ppg) since March 31, 2009 when they are playing in at least their third straight road game. The Kings are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since February 13, 2008 before playing the Trailblazers. The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since December 06, 2009 when their opponent is playing in at least their third straight road game.

Lakers at Magic – The Lakers are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since March 27, 2005 after a double digit road loss in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since February 09, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since May 05, 2004 on the road after a double digit loss in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Magic are 7-0-1 ATS (10.2 ppg) since March 11, 2006 when seeking revenge for a loss as a road dog in which they led at the end of the third quarter.

Trailblazers at Nuggets – The Trailblazers are 0-7 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since March 29, 2004 on the road after a win in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. The Nuggets are 8-0-1 ATS (5.8 ppg) since February 27, 2009 when playing the last game of at least a three game home stand. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since February 27, 2009 when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss.

Rockets at Pistons – The Rockets are 9-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since March 22, 2005 after playing on the road against the Timberwolves. The Pistons are 0-11 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since March 23, 2005 after a road loss against the Cavaliers. The Pistons are 0-8 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since March 03, 2006 with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Pistons are 0-7 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since November 22, 2009 when they lost their last two games and both were on the road.