Inside the Paint - Sunday
By Chris David
Similar to other professional sports, handicapping the last week of the regular season has its share of risks and rewards. Only four days remain before 14 teams pack it up for the summer and the other 16 will set their eyes toward the playoffs. With that being said, some of the games listed on the betting board have postseason implications, while others are meaningless. Despite the lack of uncertainty, gamblers still have the options to press or pass.
Let’s take a closer look at the complete card.
Orlando at Cleveland: It’s not fair to call this game meaningless, since it features the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference, but there isn’t much to gain in this spot. Orlando still has a chance to earn homecourt in the NBA Finals and it’s a good shot, considering Stan Van Gundy’s team is tied with the L.A. Lakers, the top seed in the Western Conference. LeBron James has sat out the last two games for the Cavs and the team lost by a combined four points to the Bulls (108-109) and Pacers (113-116). Will he suit up on Sunday? The answer is still up in the air and so is the opening number. With LeBron, the Cavs won and covered two of the three battles against Orlando this year. The ‘over’ went 2-1.
Portland at L.A. Lakers: The Lakers locked up the No. 1 seed in the West on Friday after beating Minnesota (97-88) and have been preparing for another championship run. Kobe Bryant (rest) sat out both contests and the Lakers went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. Los Angeles has put itself into a position to coast through the last month and that’s what the team has done. In the second-half of the season, the Lakers are 16-9 SU and 9-15-1 ATS. Portland can finish as high as fifth, but seeds six through eight look more probable, especially after the team lost at home to Dallas (83-77) on Friday. The Blazers and Lakers split the first two meetings of the regular season, both games played at the Rose Garden. Ironically, Los Angeles was without Kobe in its 99-82 win on Feb. 6 over Portland, but the Blazers didn’t have All-Star Brandon Roy in the lineup either. The Lakers have won five straight and 14 of the previous 16 battles at Staples Center against the Blazers.
Miami at New York: The Heat had their nine-game winning streak snapped Friday at home against Detroit (99-105). The defense was solid during the run, holding all nine clubs under the century mark. Miami will either finish the season as the fifth or sixth seed in the East, which means they’ll face Atlanta or Boston in the first round. New York’s chances of making the playoffs were eliminated a long time ago, but the club is playing for pride. The team is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four, but New York hasn’t had much success against Miami lately. The Knicks have dropped a pair of encounters both SU and ATS to the Heat this season and are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in the last four. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of the previous six in this series.
Chicago at Toronto: If there is one contest that has any meaning today, then it’s this battle from Air Canada Centre. The Bulls and Raptors are tied for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference with just three games left. Chris Bosh (face) is expected to miss another game for Toronto tonight, which is why Chicago has been installed as a two-point road favorite in this spot. The Raptors have won and covered five straight against the Bulls, including the two victories this season. However, the pair hasn’t squared off since Dec. 5. Even if Chicago wins in this spot, it could still lose the final seed due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. Either way you look at, one of these two teams are going to have meet Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs, which means the NBA Draft Lottery looks more promising.
Minnesota at New Orleans: This game is a complete toss-up and could be a fun one to watch, since the atmosphere and tempo should be loose. New Orleans has won the first three regular season battles, but Minnesota covered all three. And all three went ‘under’ the number. The Timberwolves are 1-9 in their last 10, and the Hornets are 2-8. Hard to make a case for either team in this spot, but the ‘over’ could be worth a look.
Houston at Phoenix: The Suns were cooled off Friday in a loss at Oklahoma City (91-96), but it’s hard to overlook their impressive 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS run. Phoenix has won six straight at home (5-1 ATS) and the lone non-cover barely missed by a ½-point. The Rockets will be looking to avoid a four-game season sweep to the Suns on Sunday. Even though Houston already lost three games to Phoenix this year, the largest margin was eight points. The point-spread for this game opened at nine, and the Rockets are banged-up but they have gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five and the victories came against quality competition (Celtics, Grizzlies, Jazz, Bobcats) too.
Oklahoma City at Golden State: The Thunder has won all three meetings (2-1 ATS) against the Warriors this season, including a 104-95 road victory on Feb. 6. Golden State has won 17 of its 24 games at home, but it will be facing a back-to-back situation after facing the Clippers in Los Angeles last night. Don Nelson’s team is 5-13 SU on zero days rest but a respectable 11-7 ATS.
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Orlando (56-23, 43-34-2 ATS) at Cleveland (61-19, 38-41-1 ATS)
The top two teams in the Eastern Conference square off inside Quicken Loans Arena when the Magic, who are riding a three-game winning streak, take on the Cavaliers.
Orlando, who have locked up the No. 2 seed in the upcoming playoffs, have won three in a row SU and ATS and six of seven overall (4-2-1 ATS). Most recently, The Magic scored a 118-103 victory over the Knicks on Friday, getting 25 points and 14 rebounds from Dwight Howard, and easily cashing as 12-point home favorites.
Cleveland, which has secured the best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs, has dropped two straight (1-1 ATS) and three of its last four (2-2 ATS). Cavaliers’ coach Mike Brown has chosen to rest several of his mainstays the last couple games, including LeBron James, who hasn’t been in uniform the last two contests.
The Cavs have taken two of three (SU and ATS) versus the Magic this year, including a 115-106 home win back on Feb. 11, cashing as six-point favorites. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings (6-2 ATS), including five of their six clashes in the Eastern Conference Finals last May. Orlando has cashed in 16 of the last 21 meetings, including seven of the last nine in Cleveland.
The Magic are on ATS surges of 4-1-1 overall, 7-2-1 on Sundays, 6-1 against Central Division teams and 4-1 against the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have cashed in 18 of 25 at home against teams with winning road records, but they’re otherwise on ATS skids of 2-6 overall, 1-4 at home and 1-7 after a straight-up loss.
Orlando has topped the total in five of six against winning teams and four of five against the Eastern Conference, but it is on “under” surges of 29-14-1 overall, 37-14-1 after a day off, 24-8 on Sundays and 7-3 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Cleveland has stayed below the posted number in 37 of 52 Sunday contests, but it is on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road marks.
In this rivalry, the “over” has cashed in five of the last six meetings overall and four straight in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Portland (48-31, 42-35-2 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (56-23, 33-43-3 ATS)
The Trail Blazers, fighting for the sixth-seed in the Western Conference playoff race, travel to the Staples Center for a showdown with the conference’s top seeded Lakers.
Portland is locked in a battle with Oklahoma City and San Antonio for the Western Conference’s No. 6 seed, hoping to avoid a first-round matchup with the Lakers by staying away from the eighth and final spot. The Blazers had won six of seven (5-2 ATS) before Friday’s 83-77 home loss to the Mavericks, failing as a five-point favorite. Portland has struggled with its offense lately, reaching triple digits just three times in its last 10 games (5-4-1 ATS).
Playing without Kobe Bryant the last two games, the Lakers went to Denver on Thursday and fell 98-96 as a 1½-point pups and then traveled to Minnesota on Friday and scored a 97-88 win, cashing as a 7½-point chalk. Los Angeles has still dropped five of its last eight games (SU and ATS), and it is just 8-16-1 ATS since returning from the All-Star break.
The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry (3-7 ATS), but the lone road win during this stretch came on Feb. 6 when the Lakers rolled 99-82 in Portland as a 3½-point favorite without Bryant, who was nursing an injured ankle. The Blazers have cashed in 23 of the last 31 meetings with the Lakers overall, including five of the last seven clashes inside the Staples Center.
Portland is on several positive ATS streaks, including 14-6-1 on the road, 4-1 after a straight-up loss, 13-6-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 3-1-1 after getting a day off. Los Angeles is on ATS slumps of 0-8 after a spread-cover, 1-6 after a day off, 1-5 after a straight-up win, 1-4 at home and 1-3-2 on Sunday.
The Trail Blazers have gone over the total in 14 of 20 road games and 13 of 18 roadies against opponents that have a winning home record, but they are on “under” runs of 7-3 overall and 4-1 against Western Conference teams. The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 20-8 overall, 20-7 against the Western Conference, 20-6 against Northwest Division teams, 22-4-2 on Sunday, 6-1 after a straight-up win and 4-0 inside Staples Center.
In this series, the under has cashed in each of the last four battles in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and UNDER
Chicago (38-41, 39-38-2 ATS) at Toronto (38-41, 37-42 ATS)
The two teams battling it out for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race meet at the Air Canada Centre, where the Bulls battle the Raptors.
With both teams tied in the conference standings, the winner of this contest will have a one-game lead with just two regular-season games left to play. After today, Chicago hosts Boston on Tuesday and finishes the season in Charlotte on Wednesday, while the Raptors travel to Detroit on Monday and finish at home on Wednesday against the Knicks. Should these squads finish with the same record, Toronto would advance to the postseason by virtue of a tiebreaker.
The Bulls dropped a tough one on Friday night in New Jersey, losing in double-overtime to the lowly Nets 127-116 as 5½-point favorites. Derrick Rose had 25 points and fellow guard Kirk Hinrich just missed a triple-double with 13 points, nine assists and nine rebounds. Still, Chicago has won five of its last eight (4-4 ATS) and taken two of its last three (SU and ATS) on the highway.
The Raptors have slumped lately, losing four straight (1-3 ATS) and seven of their last 10 (6-4 ATS). That includes Friday’s 107-101 loss in Atlanta, but they cashed as a 10½-point underdog. With Chris Bosh out the remainder of the regular season with a facial injury, Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems combined for 36 points against the Hawks.
Toronto has dominated the Bulls lately, winning five in a row and eight of the last 10 (SU and ATS). The Raptors have taken both contests this season rather easily: a 99-89 home win back on Nov. 11 as a 5½-point favorites and a 110-78 victory in Chicago on Dec. 5 as a six-point pup. Toronto has also cashed in four of the last five contests played north of the border.
The Bulls come into this one on ATS surges of 5-1 on the road, 5-1 against Atlantic Division teams, 9-5 overall, 6-1 after a straight-up loss and 11-4 on the road against teams with winning home records. Toronto has cashed in four of five after a day off and five of seven against the Eastern Conference, but it is on ATS slides of 2-11 at home, 1-4 on Sundays 1-5 against the Central Division and 8-21-1 as a home ‘dog of less than five points.
Chicago is on several “under” runs, including 8-4 overall, 7-4 on the road, 6-2 as a favorite, 23-10 as a road chalk, 7-3 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 after a straight-up loss. The Raptors have stayed below the number in nine of 13 as a home ‘dog, but they are on “over” streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-0 as an underdog overall, 6-2 on Sunday, 25-9 against Eastern Conference teams and 4-0 against Central Division opponents. Lastly, in this series, the under has cashed in seven of the last 10 matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA RoundUp For 4/11
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Cavaliers - This line is OFF. This game is going to be largely dependent on who plays, it's that simple. If, as I expect, Lebron and/or a few of his teammates take the morning off, the Magic could be a nice play, here. As was noted by a sharp blog reader a couple days back (was that you, PK?) Orlando is playing for the 2nd best record in the League (and a potential home court in the Finals), so they're still playing their top guns in an effort to pass the Lake show. So, while 80% of the league is screwing off the last few days of the season, Orlando is making a push (right now they're tied with LA at 56-23). Lean to the Magic, and tiny lean to the Over.
Blazers @ Lakers - This line is OFF. This game would seemingly mean more to Portland than LA, but I wonder if we're starting to see the Lakers get into playoff tune-up mode. This might be one of the games to just wipe off your card, since we really don't know what to expect from LA. This line won't come out until pretty late, too, given that oddsmakers are trying to determine which Lakers, if any, are going to take a night off. Slightest, tiniest lean to Portland, and while I like unders in this "big game" situation, normally, off that ugly game with Dallas, not sure the under has any value left. Let's check the line out, but maybe a peek at the Over on a value play.
Heat @ Knicks - Miami by 5 with a total of 200. New York has been competitive lately, in most games, though they got slammed in Orlando. Miami has taken its foot off the gas now that a playoff spot is locked up, and we saw that in their last game with Detroit. The Heat are not terribly concerned about that playoff seed, though I think they're assuming they can grab a win down the stretch to stay out of the 7th or 8th spot. No lean on the side, and slight lean to the Over, since I feel like the Heat get sucked into a Knicks-style game, just a bit.
Bulls @ Raptors - Chicago by 2 with a total of 202.5. This is truly the game of the day, and the only one that matters from a "who's in and who's out" perspective. In fact, the winner of this game will be in the driver's seat for that last playoff spot. Toronto is without Chris Bosh, and I feel like everyone is going to be looking to Chicago to pick up this win, but I think the huge value is in the Under. This is going to be a "playoff style" game, and you can bet that both teams are going to want to take special care of the ball. I happen to think this game comes down to the last shot, so maybe take a team on the ML if you want to grab a side, and definite lean to the Under.
Wolves @ Hornets - This line is OFF. Two teams with nothing to play for, this point in the season, it's as simple as this: look to the home team. We've seen how visitors have performed in the final week of the season, and the numbers haven't been impressive. Slight lean to Hornets, though we know how they've struggled to cover numbers at home, but the Wolves are off that actual crowd draw against the Lakers, and they're ripe for a complete failure game. I think this one could be a track meet, too. Lean to the Over.
Rockets @ Suns - Phoenix by 9 with a total of 222.5. Believe it or not, the games in this series have been pretty hotly contested, and I think it's because the Rockets can shoot. Houston's quietly rattled off 3 wins in a row, but admittedly, the Suns need it more. I'd probably give a tiny lean to the Rockets getting all these points, but a pass is the wiser option on a game with a spread this large. The total looks pretty accurate, if a tiny bit inflated, but which team is going to slow it down? Neither, that I can tell. Pass on the total, too.
Thunder @ Warriors - This line is OFF. The Thunder don't take anything lightly these days, and though they got ripped off of a win in Utah, then were too tired to tackle Denver, they bounced back nicely with a home win over the skilled Suns. I happen to think the Warriors are going to run into a little trouble with this hugely athletic team, and even though this is likely to be some road chalk, I think the Thunder dispatch of Golden State. On the total, we know the Thunder can score with Golden State, though they've done a decent job of slowing, and I have to look at the Under first.