Sunday's Best NBA Bets
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (-6, 197)
The Celtics won all four regular-season meetings, but that should not be too much of a factor heading into this playoff series. Trade-deadline acquisition Carmelo Anthony played in only one of those contests and almost every starter sat out for the most recent encounter, a 112-102 Boston victory on Wednesday.
Oft-injured big man Shaquille O’Neal missed 27 straight games for the Celtics due to an Achilles problem, and he strained a calf muscle upon his return on April 3. Shaq was expected to return for the start of the postseason, but it was announced Saturday that he will miss at least Game 1.
“We tried to get him out there at practice today, simulate the game as much as we could, and he's not ready,” team president Danny Ainge told the Boston Globe. “So we don't know when he'll be ready, and we'll just keep evaluating him day-to-day.”
With Shaq out, Jermaine O’Neal (probable with an ankle injury) banged up, and Kendrick Perkins in Oklahoma City, New York could take advantage in the paint with Amar’e Stoudemire, Shawne Williams, and Ronny Turiaf.
The Knicks, meanwhile, won seven straight games between March 28 and April 10 before losing a pair of meaningless games to Chicago and Boston. The Celtics have lost three of five, 11 of their last 21.
Pick: Knicks
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 199.5)
Oklahoma City went 3-1 against Denver during the regular season (3-1 ATS), including 2-0 SU and ATS at home. They most recently faced each other on April 8 and the host Thunder took care of business 104-89.
The surprising Nuggets went 18-7 (20-4-1 ATS) after shipping Anthony to New York. However, they are banged up at the moment. Arron Afflalo (hamstring), Danilo Gallinari (ankle), Nene (groin), and Ty Lawson (ankle) are all dealing with injuries, though only Afflalo is questionable for Game 1.
Furthermore, Oklahoma City has big, physical guards who can dominate when Denver coach George Karl goes with two point guards -- Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson -- at the same time. In last week’s 104-89 Thunder win, the Thunder outscored the Nuggets 43-30 over a stretch of 17:26 in which Denver’s point guards played together.
The Thunder are 5-1 in their last six games while the Nuggets are a more modest 3-3 in the same span.
Pick: Thunder
Boston Celtics, Knicks renew playoff rivalry
By: Michael Robinson
The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics resume their storied rivalry in a first-round playoff series beginning Sunday. This is the first playoff meeting between the teams since 1990, with Boston holding the 7-6 edge all-time.
Bookmaker.com has the Celtics as six-point home favorites with a total of 197 points. They’re minus 350 in the series price with New York plus 290.
TNT will have the broadcast at 4 p.m. (PT) from TD Banknorth Garden. It’s the third of four Sunday games, coming right after New Orleans at the L.A. Lakers on ABC.
New York (42-40 straight-up, 46-34-2 against the spread) got swept all four games by Boston this year, going 2-2 ATS. One of those was the last day of the regular season on Wednesday, when both teams rested key players. Only one of Boston’s wins came with Carmelo Anthony suited up.
Anthony was acquired from Denver on Feb. 22 along with point guard Chauncey Billups. Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Ray Felton were the key names going the other way, arguably the biggest trade in Knicks history. New York’s record post-trade was 14-14 SU (13-15 ATS) including a six-game losing streak and a seven-game winning streak.
The seven game winning streak ended last Tuesday against Chicago (103-90 loss). The Knicks scored 115.7 PPG during the winning streak (going 6-1 ATS) and allowed 105.9 PPG. They were tied for 27th in points allowed for the year at 105.7 PPG.
Power forward Amare Stoudemire (ankle) missed three recent games before getting some run last game. He’s probable for Sunday in New York’s only listed injury.
The Celtics (56-26 SU, 38-42-2 ATS) have been mired in mediocrity the last month-plus, going 10-11 SU (9-12 ATS). That dropped them down to the No. 3 seed in the conference behind Chicago and Miami.
Coach Doc Rivers decided to rest starters Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo the last two games of the season. The first game they sat was at Washington last Monday, a surprising move as Boston trailed Miami by just one game at that point.
Rivers wanted to rest his guys for the playoffs, but he might have also been sending a message to his stars. Celtics players have been vocal in their displeasure of the recent Kendrick Perkins trade. That netted them two current bench players in Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green.
Krstic and Jermaine O’Neal are the current centers with Shaquille O’Neal (calf) still questionable on Sunday. Shaq has played a total of five minutes since Feb. 1, so his time will likely be limited even if he does suit up.
The Celtics are 33-8 SU and 20-19-2 ATS at home this year. They’re 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four at home, with one the meaningless game with the Knicks. The road has been a different story lately, 0-4 SU and ATS, including terrible efforts at Chicago (97-81) and Miami (100-77).
The matchups for this series are very interesting. New York has two 25 PPG caliber scorers in Anthony and Stoudemire. They can each have success going one-on-one against Pierce and Garnett, both several years older than their Big Apple counterparts.
Boston’s biggest individual advantage is Rondo against Billups. Rondo has far too much quickness and loves to get into the lane for easy opportunities for his teammates.
Allen (16.5 PPG) also has a solid advantage at shooting guard over Landry Fields, as the latter has seen his numbers go down since Anthony’s arrival. New York will start Ronny Turiaf at center, but will rotate several guys. The biggest loss of Perkins was on defense as he made guys pay physically for coming in the lane.
Boston gets the edge on the bench despite a number of players being recently acquired. The Knicks lost most of their depth in the Anthony trade. Rivers also gets the coaching edge over Mike D’Antoni.
While the individual matchups are pretty close, basketball is a team sport and that’s where the Celtics excel. Their players are almost unselfish to a fault, passing the ball to find the open man. New York relies a lot on Anthony’s isolation moves and on the three-point shot (second most attempts in the league).
Boston is first in the league in points allowed (91.1 PPG). The ‘under’ is 16-5-1 in its last 22 games.
This looks like a very tight series, with an upset certainly a possibility.
Prediction: Celtics in seven
Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers host Hornets
By: Stephen Nover
Money time. Show time. Time to turn on the switch.
Whatever cliché time phrase there is fits the Los Angeles Lakers as they open their first-round Western Conference playoff series hosting New Orleans Sunday at 12:30 p.m. PT on ABC.
The two-time defending world champion Lakers finished the regular season losing and failing to cover in five of their last seven games.
But is there any doubt that the second-seeded 57-25 Lakers won’t steamroll the seventh-seeded Hornets?
The Lakers have the shortest odds to win a third consecutive world championship at plus 185, according to Bookmaker.com. The Lakers are minus 2100 to dispatch the Hornets in the series with New Orleans plus 1250 and 90/1 to win the title.
Despite their recent struggles and center Andrew Bynum not 100 percent because of a bone bruise in his surgically-repaired right knee, the Lakers still are 10-point favorites in Game 1 with the ‘over/under’ at 183½. It’s only the fourth time all season the Hornets are taking double-digit points.
However, New Orleans has failed to cover its last eight playoff games when getting between five and 10½ points.
David West, the Hornets’ leadings scorer at 18.9 points a game, is out with a knee injury.
Point guard Chris Paul, who ranked fourth in the league in assists at 9.8 per contest and first in steals, shot just 41.5 percent from the floor in his last 10 games. Paul hasn’t been 100 percent much of the season due to a sore knee.
The Lakers swept the Hornets in four regular season games wining three of the matchups by double-digits and not allowing New Orleans to reach triple-digits in any game while going 3-1 ATS.
The team’s last meeting occurred on March 27 when the Lakers romped, 102-84, as nine-point home favorites behind 30 points from Kobe Bryant and 23 from Pau Gasol, who also grabbed 16 rebounds. The combined 186 points just dipped ‘under’ the 188½-point total.
This continued the Lakers’ trend of beating the Hornets. Los Angeles is 9-2 versus New Orleans during the past three seasons.
Bynum is expected to play in the series opener having had five days to get his knee in shape. The Lakers also should have Matt Barnes available. He missed the Lakers’ final two regular-season contests with knee soreness.
Reserve guard Steve Blake is out for Los Angeles due to chicken pox. The Lakers, though, still should posses the better reserves thanks to sixth man Lamar Odom. The Hornets have no one to match up against the athletic 6-foot-10 Odom, who averaged 14.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game.
The Hornets rank fifth defensively allowing 94 points per contest, but are 27th on offense averaging 94.9 points. The Lakers rank eighth defensively yielding 95.4 points a game and are ninth on offense at 101.5 points. Bryant was the league’s fifth-leading scorer at 25.3 points a game.
It’s not just Bryant and Odom who give the Hornets matchup problems. Gasol averaged 22.3 points and 12.8 rebounds versus the Hornets.
The Hornets’ only really decent front-court player with West out is Emeka Okafor, who is playing in the postseason for the first time. Okafor is a good rebounder and shot-blocker, but is not a big scorer.
Carl Landry has done a nice job replacing West, leading the Hornets in scoring the past 10 games at 14.9 points per contest and shooting 51.8 percent from the field.
Paul, though, is the key to any hope the Hornets having of being competitive. He’ll look to pick-and-roll the Lakers to death while taking advantage of a matchup against Derek Fisher.
The Lakers were just 16-25 ATS at home this season. However, they have covered 14 of the last 20 times they’ve met teams with a winning record.
The Hornets, who are 46-36, finished five games under .500 on the road. They were 19-21-1 ATS away from home.
Totals players may want to note that the ‘under’ has cashed in 22 of the Hornets’ last 32 games when taking points on the road.
Game 2 is set for Staples Center on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. PT with TNT broadcasting.
NBA Playoff Preview
Home side won all four Memphis-San Antonio games this season; two games in Memphis went over, two in Alamo stayed under. Grizzlies did cover all four games- they were 9-3 vs spread in last 12 games overall, 12-5 in last 17 games as an underdog. Spurs got bored down stretch and were 4-8 in last dozen games. Five of Grizzlies' last seven games stayed under total.
Lakers were 4-0 vs New Orleans this season (3-1 vs spread) winning by 4-18 points in two games at Staples; over was 2-1-1 in the series. Lakers got bored down stretch and lost five games in row, before winning by 9-16 points in last two games- they're 5-9 vs spread in last 14 games as a favorite. Hornets are 2-4 vs spread in last six games as an underdog; they lost their last three games overall, by 23-12-32 points.
Boston was 4-0 against the Knicks this season (2-2 vs spread), winning here by 4-10 points; three of last four games went over the total. Celtics were just 6-7 in their last 13 games, 3-5-1 in last nine games as a favorite. Knicks are 3-5 in last eight games as a dog; their biggest weakness will be defense inside, but with Shaq out hurt, can Celtics exploit the weakness?
Denver went 16-6 after trading Carmelo Anthony; they improved a lot on defense. Nuggets lost three of four vs Oklahoma City this year, with losses by 8-15 on this court- the two games before the Anthony trade both went over, the two after stayed under. Denver is 9-2 vs spread as a dog since the trade. Thunder won five of their last six games overall.