NBA News and Notes Sunday 4/18

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Oklahoma City (50-32, 48-34 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (57-25, 33-46-3 ATS)

Kobe Bryant and the Lakers open defense of their NBA title against the upstart Thunder in Game 1 of this Western Conference opening round series inside the Staples Center.

Oklahoma City had the biggest one-season turnaround in NBA history, thanks in large part to the emergence of regular-season scoring champion Kevin Durant, who averaged 30.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest. He had 30 points or more in each of the final seven games, hitting the 40-point mark three of those seven. Despite Durant’s best efforts, the Thunder lost four of six down the stretch (3-3 ATS) to drop to the No. 8 seed. However, they ended the season on a positive note, routing Memphis 114-105 and barely cashing as an 8½-point home favorite.

The top seed in the Western Conference, the Lakers were just 3-6 (2-7 ATS) down the stretch with Bryant missing several meaningless games with a variety of nagging injuries. They failed to cash in any of the final three contest, including the season finale against the Clippers (a 107-91 loss as a 6½-point favorite).

Oklahoma City was 23-18 (26-15 ATS) on the highway this season, losing its final three roadies (1-2 ATS) following a three-game road winning streak, and the Thunder allowed 100 points per game as a visitor. Los Angeles went 34-7 inside Staples Center, but was just 16-23-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by 8.5 ppg (103.9-95.4).

The Thunder haven’t been in the playoffs since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.

The Lakers had won 12 straight (5-7 ATS) in this rivalry until March 26 when Oklahoma City scored a 91-75 home blowout win, cashing as a one-point underdog. The Thunder cashed in three of four season meetings and they’re 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits to the Staples Center.

Oklahoma City is on several positive ATS runs, including 13-3 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 8-3 as a road ‘dog, 20-8 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 18-8 against winning teams and 6-2 after getting three or more days off. Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 first-round games, but otherwise they carry several negative ATS trends, including 1-5 overall, 1-6 at home, 1-4 as a favorite and 1-5 against Western Conference squads.

The Thunder are on “over” streaks of 8-2 overall, 7-0 on the road, 5-0 as road ‘dogs, 8-1-1 on Sunday and 19-7 after a straight-up win. The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 5-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 17-8 as a favorite, 16-6 against Western Conference teams, 6-2 after three or more days off and 23-4-2 on Sunday.

In this series, the “under” has cashed in five of the last seven meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

San Antonio (50-32, 44-37-1 ATS) at Dallas (55-27, 37-44-1 ATS)

The second-seeded Mavericks, who just finished the regular season with a victory over the Spurs, immediately resume this Texas rivalry when they open the best-of-7 series at the American Airlines Center.

San Antonio was on an 8-3 SU and ATS roll before dropping the season finale in Dallas 96-89 as a five-point road underdog. The season-ending surge included wins over Cleveland (at home) and the Lakers (on the road) – the top two teams in the playoffs – as well as fellow postseason participants Boston (road), Orlando (home) and Denver (road). Gregg Popovich’s troops went 18-8 SU and ATS in their last 26 regular-season starts.

Dallas went on an 8-2 SU and ATS tear to cap the regular season (5-0 SU and ATS last five), beating out Phoenix, Denver and Utah in a tight race for the No. 2 seed in the West. Wednesday’s win over San Antonio gave the Mavericks a 23-6 SU mark over their last 29 games, though they were a more modest 16-13-1 ATS in that span.

The Spurs were a solid 29-12 SU (20-21 ATS) on the highway this year, averaging 97.3 ppg on 45.4 percent shooting, and giving up 95.4 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting. The Mavericks were 28-13 SU at home this season, but they were a dismal 11-29-1 ATS in those contests, outscoring foes by about a bucket more per game in averaging 101.8 ppg and allowing 99.6 ppg.

San Antonio has won four NBA titles since 1999, with the last coming in 2007 against Cleveland, and is in the postseason for a 12th consecutive year. Dallas is making its 10th straight playoff appearance, reaching the second round last year before falling in five games to Denver. That followed a pair of first-round exits for a team that reached the NBA Finals in 2006.

These instate rivals also met in the first round last year, with Dallas rolling to a 4-1 series victory while also going 4-1 ATS, averaging 96.4 ppg and allowing 90.4 ppg. The Mavs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, including 3-1 SU and ATS this year, winning and cashing in the last three meetings. Dallas has covered in five straight at home against San Antonio, the host is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups, and the SU winner is on a 14-0 ATS tear.

The Spurs are on ATS slides of 0-4 as a playoff pup, 1-5-1 in first-round games, 1-4 after three or more days off and 2-6 on Sunday, though they also sport positive ATS runs of 18-7 overall, 6-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 6-2 against winning teams, 12-4 against Western Conference teams and 5-2 as a pup.

The Mavericks are on ATS upswings of 5-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS win, 5-1 in first-round playoff games and 4-1-1 within the Southwest Division. However, despite their current surge, they still shoulder negative ATS streaks of 7-28-1 at home, 16-34-1 as a home favorite, 3-12-1 after three or more days off and 4-10 as a playoff chalk.

Dallas is on “under” surges of 6-1 at home, 4-1 after a break of three days or more and 14-6 as a playoff chalk, though the over has hit in six of the Mavs’ last eight against winning teams and five of their last seven Sunday starts. San Antonio is on “under” strings of 4-0 after three or more days off, 4-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a playoff pup, 6-1-1 on the road and 11-4-1 on Sunday.

Finally, in this rivalry, the under was the play in three of this season’s four meetings, but in last year’s playoff series, the total cleared the posted price in four of the five contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS

Portland (50-32, 44-36-2 ATS) at Phoenix (54-28, 48-33-1 ATS)

The Brandon Roy-less Trail Blazers head to the US Airways Center facing an uphill battle against the NBA’s hottest second-half team in the Suns, the Western Conference’s No. 3 seed.

Portland lost the All-Star Roy a week ago in a win over the Lakers, and managed to split its final two games, beating the Thunder 103-95 as a 1½-point home favorite and then losing a meaningless 122-116 season finale to the Warriors as a 10-point home chalk. The Blazers went 13-4 (9-7-1 ATS) down the stretch to get the conference’s No. 6 seed.

The Suns went 22-5 (19-7-1 ATS) after Feb. 18, including a 10-game winning streak (7-2-1 ATS) from mid March and into early April. They closed the season with three consecutive SU and ATS wins, topping Denver on Tuesday (123-101 as a five-point home favorites and Utah on Wednesday (100-86 as a five-point pup).

The Blazers were 24-17 (25-15-1 ATS) on the road this season, and won five of their last six roadies (3-3 ATS). Phoenix was 32-9 (25-15-1 ATS) in the desert, including an eight-game home winning streak to close the regular season (7-0-1 ATS). The Suns averaged 112.6 ppg at home this season, shooting 49.8 percent from the floor while allowing 103.2 ppg (44.5 percent).

Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round. Meanwhile, Phoenix is returns to the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years.

The Trail Blazers have won four of the last five series clashes (4-0-1 ATS), including two of three this season (2-0-1 ATS). Portland went to Phoenix on Feb. 10 and prevailed 108-101 as a 9½-point underdog, but on March 21, the Suns got a 93-87 win in the desert and pushed as a six-point chalk. The favorite is on an 18-6-2 ATS run in the last 26 series clashes, but the Suns are 12-5-2 in the last 19 meetings in Phoenix.

Portland brings some positive ATS runs into the playoffs, including 15-6-1 on the road, 8-2 as a playoff underdog and 14-6-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. The Suns are on a bunch of ATS surges, including 25-9-1 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 18-7-1 as a favorite, 19-7-1 against the Western Conference, 13-3-1 as a home favorite, 5-1-1 on Sunday and 6-1-1 at home against teams with winning road records.

The Blazers have topped the total in six of eight as an underdog of five to 10½ points and 18 of 26 on the road against teams with winning home records, but they are on “under” runs of 8-3 as an underdog overall, 29-11-1 after three or more days off, 4-1 on the road and 4-0 after a non-cover. Phoenix is on “over” runs of 11-5 as a favorite and 8-2 as a chalk of five and 10½ points, but it is also on “under” streaks of 5-1 against Northwest Division teams, 6-2-1 after a spread-cover and 8-3-1 on Sunday.

In this series, the under has cashed in four of the last five played in Phoenix.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Charlotte (44-38, 44-37-1 ATS) at Orlando (59-23, 46-34-2 ATS)

The Magic begin their quest for a second straight Eastern Conference title as the No. 2 seed, meeting the rebuilt Bobcats in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs inside Amway Arena.

Charlotte won six of nine (3-6 ATS) down the stretch, but lost the finale at home, falling 98-89 to the Bulls as a 1½-point underdog with nothing on the line for the Bobcats. Several Charlotte players have postseason experience, including Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, Larry Hughes and Theo Ratliff.

Coach Stan Van Gundy had his Magic keep their foot on the gas pedal down the stretch, winning and cashing in six straight meaningless games to close the season, and they finished on a 9-1 run (7-2-1 ATS). Dwight Howard is Orlando’s unquestioned leader at 18.3 points and 13.2 rebounds this season, but his supporting cast of Vince Carter (16.6 ppg) and Rashard Lewis (14.1 ppg) have a host of playoff experience as well.

The Bobcats were awful on the road this season at 13-28 SU, but they did manage to cash in 21 of the 41 games, and they actually won two of their last three as a visitor (1-2 ATS). Orlando went 34-7 at home (24-16-1 ATS), winning seven straight (5-1-1 ATS) and 13 of its final 14 (10-3-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.

This is the first trip to the postseason for this Charlotte franchise in its sixth season in existence. Meanwhile, the Magic are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. Last spring, they eliminated the Sixers 4-2 (2-4 ATS) in the opening round, then went on to take down the defending-champion Celtics in the conference semifinals (4-3 SU and ATS) and beat the top-seeded Cavaliers (4-2, 5-1 ATS) to reach the NBA Finals for just the second time in franchise history. However, the dream ended in five games against the Lakers (1-4 ATS).

Orlando had beaten the Bobcats seven straight times before a March 14 home upset loss, falling 96-89 as an 8 ½-point favorite. The Magic had cashed in four of five leading up to the March defeat. Even though the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four series clashes, Charlotte is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 trips to Orlando.

The Bobcats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four as an underdog, but they are on pointspread surges of 6-2-1 against winning teams, 6-0-1 against Southeast Division squads and 4-0 on Sunday.

It’s all positive ATS trends for the Magic, including 18-7-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home (all as a favorite) 18-7-1 on Sunday, 20-7 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 7-3 against Southeast Division teams.

Charlotte is on “under” runs of 7-2 on the road, 7-0 as a road ‘dog, 8-3 on Sunday, 10-3 against winning teams and 6-2 against Southeast Division squads. Orlando has topped the total in four of five overall and four of five as a favorite, but it is on “under” streaks of 10-4-1 at home, 20-6 on Sundays, 10-3 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 9-4 against Southeast Division teams.

In this series, the under is 9-3 in the last 12 clashes overall and 6-2 in the past eight contests in Florida.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

NBA Combo RoundUp For 4/18
By Dan Bebe

Thunder @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 7.5 with a total of 197. Let the fun begin! The Lakers, somehow UNDERRATED coming off a poor end to the season, against everyone's favorite darling, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Kevin Garnett's new best buddy, Kevin Durant. I may very well come back and add more to these write-ups tomorrow (seeing as it's 1am already), but the main points to take away from this game are that, believe it or not, the Lakers, at least right now, are not the "pay a premium" team that they usually are. Folks saw the Lakers bumble down the stretch, and that's what's fresh in their minds. LA has been here before, and when things tighten up, and those shots don't fall quite as easily as usual, the Lakers know what to do. I think the Thunder will pose decent problems for LA over the course of the series, but something tells me the big dogs handle the pressure of game one better than the underdogs. I like the Lakers to squeeze by with an 8-9 point win. Too close to really make a play, but slightest, tiniest lean to the Lakers. How many times have we seen LA play to the Under in big games? The answer, for those shouting out guesses, is "every time." You could almost back Lakers' Unders in big games blindly this year, and hit about 80%, for real. I'm not sure it's that simple, here, since something tells me the Thunder try to push the pace, especially early, but I think this one ends with a final total in the low/mid 190's. Tiny lean to the Under.

Bobcats @ Magic - Orlando by 10.5 with a total of 187.5. I don't like the fact that the favorites covered yesterday in spades, since these lines are likely to move before the game starts. I also don't like that the Magic probably looked like the best team in the NBA down the stretch, since that, in my opinion, eliminates whatever value we might have had backing this team in the playoff opener. Believe me, I wanted to. But oddsmakers knew they'd have to bring this line out higher than perhaps they would have a few weeks back to split the money. Unless we see some pronounced line movement leading up to the game, I'd avoid this side. You don't have to, you might really like one side or the other, but as it stands, the Bobcats are probably the so-called "value" side, and the Magic are the side that feels more comfortable. On the total, we saw 2 games go under yesterday and 2 go over, and I'm sure oddsmakers are feeling spry about splitting the results, and for all we know, they split the money fairly well, as well. Orlando, like the Lakers, have played to the Under in a lot of big games this year, but courtesy of Charlotte's ultra-slow tempo, this line came out pretty darn low. I don't have any terribly strong feelings about the total.

Spurs @ Mavericks - Dallas by 4.5 with a total of 194.5. The Mavs are still getting disrespected. That's my take on this line. Much like the low lines in the Boston and Denver home games yesterday, the Spurs strong play down the stretch seems to have catapulted the veteran-led club up to just a 1.5-point neutral court dog to the Mavericks. If Dallas plays focused basketball, and Haywood and Butler play some defense, they should be able to cover this number. The Spurs aren't who they used to be, and while Manu Ginobili has the ability to get, basically, whatever he wants, if he's not banging shots through at a 55% clip, the Spurs could hit some scoring droughts that just won't cut it in a road playoff game. I'm inclined to believe the home team sneaks out a cover, here. It's so dangerous, though, with so many of the home teams covering, to continue to back them even as the value drops before our eyes. The total of 194.5 is, interestingly, drawing "under" money from the public, which surprises me given all the big names in this series. I happen to think there's some value on the Over here, as the Spurs just aren't that same defensive lockdown team from years past, and could get into a game decided right around 100 points apiece.

Trailblazers @ Suns - Phoenix by 7.5 (now 8) with a total of 204. This game intrigues me, maybe more than the others, because of the Brandon Roy injury. I feel like the general consensus is that Phoenix is going to just run over the Blazers, but I don't know if that's true. I happen to think Portland has an athletic team, and I think they rally together to at least compete. It'll be, to some degree, like the Lakers-Rockets series when Yao went down and those other guys came out on a mission, and it took the Lakers absolute best effort to keep those whippersnappers from pulling off the insane upset. I'm not saying the Suns get toppled, as I actually happen to think Phoenix could represent the West in the Finals if the shots are falling, but I do think that this series isn't going to be as easy as everyone writes. Small lean to Portland to find a way to lose this game by 4-5. On the total of 204, well, we've seen some mixed results in totals so far. We know Portland would prefer a slower game, especially with Roy out, and if we think they have a chance, I think we have to at least look at the Under. Phoenix's offense gets all the attention, too, though their defense has improved dramatically. They could very easily end up winning this game 103-98, but if the free throws start one possession too early, they could win 105-101. Tough call, but a lean to the Under by just a hair.