Game of the day: Mavericks at Spurs Betting Preview
By STEVE MERRIL
Series notes
San Antonio took a 2-1 series lead after a 94-90 win in Game 3 on Friday night. The Spurs trailed by four points heading into the fourth quarter, but they outscored Dallas 28-20 to snag the win. San Antonio still won the game despite going scoreless from 3-point land (0-7).
Dallas has dropped its last two games after winning the series opener 100-94. The Mavericks back-to-back losses are somewhat of a surprise considering they had won seven of the previous eight meetings against San Antonio.
Bad officiating
You can make an argument that this has been the worst officiated series in the playoffs. Even though the crews change on a game-to-game basis, bad officiating seems to be the theme in this Texas rivalry.
The whistle was all in favor of Dallas in Game 1. The Mavs shot 20 more free throws (34-14) than San Antonio. Things were fair and square in Game 2, but the refs were at it again on Friday night. This time San Antonio got all of the favorable calls. The Spurs had 11 more attempts (26-15) over the Mavs.
3-point shooting
Dallas has out-shot San Antonio from 3-point land in the three games played so far. The Mavericks have taken 53 attempts from beyond the arc which is 20 more than the 33 attempted by the Spurs. Dallas is shooting 37.7 percent (20-53) from long-range while San Antonio is shooting 36.4 percent (12-33).
With shooting numbers like that, you’d expect Dallas to have better results than a six-point win and two losses by 14 and four points. In Game 3, the Mavericks hit eight 3’s while the Spurs didn't hit any. That’s a 24-point edge yet Dallas still lost the game.
No "D" in Dallas
Dallas has not brought playoff-style defense to any of the three games yet. The Mavericks have allowed San Antonio to shoot better than 48 percent from the field in all three games. The Spurs are averaging 96.7 points per game in this series. They’ve shot 48.9 percent (116-237) from the field.
There is hope though. Head coach Rick Carlisle switched to a 2-3 zone in the third quarter of Game 3. Dallas went on a 17-0 run during that time, and it will be interesting to see if the Mavs play more zone in Game 4.
Pop goes the offense
San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich has a history of frustrating opposing offenses with his defensive schemes in the playoffs. And through three games, ‘Pop’ is doing exactly that to Dallas. The Spurs are not allowing the Mavs to get out in transition, which prevents Dallas from scoring easy buckets.
The Mavs averaging less than 93 points per game in this series, and the one time they eclipsed the century mark, they won. Jason Kidd has been stymied on offense so far. He’s scored just 25 points on a dismal 28 percent (7-25) shooting in the first three games.
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (3-0 SU and ATS) at Miami (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Celtics look to become the first team through to the second round when they go for a sweep of the Heat in Game 4 of their first-round series at American Airlines Arena.
Paul Pierce hit a buzzer-beating dagger to end Game 3, lifting Boston to a 100-98 win Friday night as a four-point road underdog. The Celtics, who have also cashed in all three games in this series, got 32 points from Pierce and 25 from Ray Allen, and they got to the free-throw line six more times than Miami (23-17), making 18.
Miami lost Game 3 despite shooting a solid 50.6 percent from the floor (39 of 77), though the Heat were just 6 of 18 from 3-point range (33.3 percent). Dwyane Wade had a game-high 34 points to go with eight assists, but he went 3-for-11 from long distance. The Heat also gave up 21 fast-break points, while scoring just 11.
Miami is 24-18 SU (18-23-1 ATS) at home this year, averaging 96.8 ppg on 45.7 percent shooting and giving up 93.5 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting. Boston is 27-15 on the highway (22-19-1 ATS), putting up 98.1 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting and allowing 94.3 ppg on 44.3 percent shooting.
Boston has absolutely owned this rivalry lately, taking the last eight in a row (6-2 ATS) and 14 of the last 15 meetings (11-4 ATS), and Doc Rivers’ troops are 8-1 ATS on their last nine trips to South Beach. The chalk has cashed in 11 of the last 13 clashes, the road team is on a 10-5 ATS run, and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head battles.
In addition, the SU winner has covered in Miami’s last 10 postseason affairs and is 13-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 17 playoff games.
The Celts are on ATS runs of 5-0 in first-round games, 5-1 against winning teams and 9-2-1 as a playoff pup, but are also 1-5 ATS in their last six after a day off, 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover.
The Heat are on a handful of ATS slides, including 2-6 overall, 3-10-1 in opening-round playoff games (1-6 last seven), 1-6-1 at home and 11-25 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Boston holds “over” streaks of 9-3 overall, 6-1 in first-round playoff games, 5-1 as a ‘dog and 6-2 against winning teams. Miami is on “over” strings of 6-2 overall, 10-4 at home, 6-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 as a favorite and 7-2 against winning teams.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in seven of the last nine meetings between these rivals, including the last two in this series and four of the last five dating to regular-season play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cleveland (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Chicago (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The eighth-seeded Bulls will try to knot up their series with the top-seeded Cavaliers in Game 4 at the United Center.
Chicago climbed back into this first-round series by holding on for a 108-106 victory Thursday night in Game 3, watching a 21-point third-quarter lead dwindle to one in the waning seconds, while cashing for the second straight game. Derrick Rose had 31 points and seven assists for the Bulls, Kirk Hinrich added 27 points, and Joakim Noah had 10 points and 15 rebounds. Chicago shot an even 50 percent (42 of 84) and committed just eight turnovers, while forcing 13.
Cleveland fell despite a game-high 39 points from LeBron James, who also had 10 rebounds and eight assists, but committed five turnovers. The Cavaliers chucked up 35 shots from 3-point range and knocked down a respectable 14 (40 percent), but it wasn’t enough to seize complete control of the series.
With Thursday’s loss, Cleveland fell to 26-16 SU (22-19-1 ATS) on the road this year, averaging 101.1 ppg on 47.3 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.8 percent). Chicago is 25-17 SU (23-19 ATS) at home, narrowly outscoring visitors (98.2-97.5) while shooting 45.3 percent and allowing 43.0 percent shooting. The Bulls lost five straight home games to start March, but have won six of their last nine at the United Center (5-4 ATS).
The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight contests in this rivalry (4-1 last five), and the home squad is on a 20-9 ATS roll, with Chicago cashing in five of the last seven at the United Center. In addition, the SU winner is 29-3 ATS in the last 32 head-to-head clashes between these Central Division rivals.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 3-10 overall (1-5 last six), 2-8 as a favorite, 2-9 after a SU loss, 2-7 after a non-cover and 1-4 on the highway. That said, Cleveland is also 13-5 ATS in its last 18 first-round playoff games (6-2 last eight) and 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 outings as a playoff chalk.
The Bulls are on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 14-6 overall (5-1 last six), 19-8-1 against Central Division rivals, 7-2 as an underdog, 7-2 as a playoff ‘dog and 25-10 following a spread-cover. However, they are still 5-9 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The over is on runs for Cleveland of 6-1 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 in roadies and 11-4 as a road favorite, and Chicago is on “over” stretches of 18-7-1 in first-round playoff games (6-1 last seven) and 9-1 as a playoff pup. On the flip side, the under is on stretches of 7-2 for Cleveland after a SU loss, 38-13-2 for the Cavs on Sunday and 5-1 for Chicago following either a SU or an ATS win.
Finally, Games 2 and 3 in this series cleared the posted price, following a 5-1 “under” surge in this rivalry. Also, the total has gone high in nine of the last 13 United Center meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Dallas (1-2 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (2-1 SU and ATS)
The seventh-seeded Spurs look to take command of this first-round series among Texas rivals when they host the second-seeded Mavericks in Game 4 at the AT&T Center.
San Antonio trailed by nine at one point in the third quarter of Game 3 on Friday night, then outscored Dallas by 13 points the rest of the way in a 94-90 win to barely cover as a 3½-point home favorite. The Spurs, who have won and covered two in a row after losing the series opener, saw Big Three deliver big time in Game 3, with Tim Duncan scoring 25, Tony Parker adding 23 and Manu Ginobili chipping 15 (plus seven assists). Ginobili suffered a broken nose after being hit by a Dirk Nowitzki elbow in the third quarter, but he came back to score 11 in the fourth.
Dallas took as many shots as the Spurs (76), making 34 while San Antonio hit 37. The Mavs went 8-for-20 from long distance, while San Antonio missed all seven of its 3-pointers. Also, Rick Carlisle’s troops went 14-for-15 at the line (93.3 percent), but the Spurs made 26 trips to the charity stripe, hitting 20.
San Antonio is now 30-12 SU (25-16-1 ATS) at home this season, outscoring visitors by more than eight ppg (105.2-97.0) and outshooting them 49.2 percent to 46 percent. Dallas stands 27-15 SU and 26-16 ATS on the highway, with the Mavs averaging 101.9 ppg on 46.8 percent shooting and yielding 98.8 ppg (45.3 percent).
These instate rivals also met in the first round last year, with Dallas rolling to a 4-1 series victory while also going 4-1 ATS. The Mavs are still 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, but San Antonio’s victories in the last two contests halted a 4-0 SU and ATS run by Dallas in this rivalry. The host is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 matchups, but Dallas is 12-5 ATS on its last 17 trips to San Antonio. Also, the SU winner is on a 16-1 ATS tear when these squads hook up.
The Mavericks are 9-4 SU and ATS in their last 13 starts overall (6-2 SU and ATS last eight), and they are on further pointspread upticks of 5-1 on the highway, 6-2 after a day off and 5-2 as a road pup. However, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six starts as a playoff ‘dog (0-4 last four).
The Spurs are on ATS upswings of 20-8 overall, 9-2 at home, 8-2 as a home chalk, 20-6-2 as a playoff chalk, 8-2 after a day off and 8-3 against winning teams, though they remain just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 first-round games (2-4 last six, all against Dallas).
San Antonio is on “under” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 against winning teams and 16-7 after a spread-cover, but the over for the Spurs is on surges of 5-1 at home and 4-1 as a home chalk. Dallas is on under rolls of 10-4-1 overall, 4-0-1 in the Southwest Division and 5-1 as an underdog.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in this year’s seven clashes in this rivalry, with the last three meetings – the regular-season finale on April 14 and the first two games of this playoff series – staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Denver (1-2 SU and ATS) at Utah (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Jazz try to take a commanding 3-1 advantage in this best-of-7 Western Conference series when they meet the Nuggets inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
After dropping Game 1 in Denver, Utah has won two straight, including Friday’s 105-93 home victory, easily cashing as a 2½-point favorite. The Jazz dominated the middle of the game, outscoring the Nuggets 63-41 in the second and third quarters to key the victory. Five Utah players scored in double digits, led by Deron Williams’ 24 points (along with 10 assists). Paul Milsap also was huge for the Jazz, contributing 22 points and 19 rebounds, and Carlos Boozer added 18 points and eight rebounds. Defensively, Utah allowed just two Nuggets to reach double figures in scoring, as both Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony (plagued by foul trouble) each had 25 points.
The road has been rough on Denver this season, as it fell to 19-23 (15-22-5 ATS) with Friday’s defeat, and the Nuggets are just 2-7 (1-7-1 ATS) in their last nine on the highway. On the other hand, Utah is a dominating 33-9 in front of the home fans (27-13-2 ATS), winning 11 of its last 12 in Salt Lake City (9-3 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
The Nuggets still lead the season series 4-3 (3-2-2 ATS), but the Jazz are 2-1 at home (1-1-1 ATS). Denver remains 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 3-1-1 ATS in Utah, but the favorite is 25-11-3 ATS in the last 39 meetings.
Denver is on pointspread skids of 5-13-1 overall, 1-7-1 on the road and 1-5-2 as an underdog, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 as a playoff underdog and 4-1-1 after a non-cover. The Jazz are on a plethora of ATS upticks, including 33-15-3 overall, 24-9-2 at home, 9-3 as a home favorite, 22-7-1 as a chalk of less than five points and 23-11-2 against Western Conference squads.
The Nuggets have topped the total in four of five overall, six of nine against Northwest Division teams and four of five against winning teams, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-1 on the road, 38-17 as an underdog, and 22-6 as a playoff ‘dog. Utah has gone over the total in 20 of 27 against Northwest Division rivals and four of five against winning teams, but it is on “under” runs of 6-0-1 after a straight-up win, 3-1-1 at home and 6-2-1 as a favorite.
In this rivalry, the over is 4-1 in the last four meetings, but the under has cashed in five of the last six in Utah, with Game 3 staying low after the first two contests in Denver hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
Sunday's Eastern Tips
By Chris David
The marathon of the NBA playoffs continue Sunday with another four games on tap and we could see one team sent packing or as TNT analyst Kenny Smith loves to say, Gone Fishin’!
Let’s take a closer look at the two early battles in the Eastern Conference.
The Truth Hurts
Paul Pierce has had a tough year for Boston, playing through nagging injuries throughout the season. However, Doc Rivers didn’t go away from the savvy veteran and “The Truth” answered the call again on Friday as he drilled a game-winning buzzer beater in Game 3’s 100-98 win against Miami. The Celtics were tabbed four-point road underdogs against the Heat and wound up cashing generous money-line tickets (+165).
Pierce finished with 32 points, while Ray Allen (25) and Kevin Garnett (16) rounded out a solid playoff performance from the “The Big Three.” Rajon Rondo helped the Celtics’ cause with 17 points, eight assists and five boards. While that quartet played great, the rest of Boston’s roster only mustered up 10 points.
For the third straight game, Dwayne Wade did what he could to help his team win. The All-Star posted 34 points, eight assists and five boards but his shot selection at the end of the game could be questioned along with coach Eric Spoelstra’s strategy not to foul Pierce with a foul to give. Wade wasn’t on the floor when Pierce made his jumper due to cramps but he’s expected to be ready for Sunday, which could be his last game in a Miami uniform. The Heat’s bench put up 39 points, but they still got nothing out of Jermaine O’Neal (2 points) for the third straight game.
The line on Game 4 is listed as a pick ‘em and it makes sense, considering no team in the history of the NBA has ever rallied from a 0-3 deficit in a series. Plus it’s hard to ignore the fact that Miami is 0-6 against Boston this season and 1-14 since the spring of the 2006-07 season.
Can D-Wade and the Heat show some pride and force a Game 5? We looked at similar situations in the last five playoffs and the answer could be summed up as doubtful. Going back to 2005, there have been 15 best-of-seven series that watched a team go build a commanding 3-0 lead. In the fourth installment, the team trailing has gone 4-11, which means the broom gets busted out often.
In case you’re wondering, the four teams that showed some guts were:
2009 – Dallas 119 Denver 117 (Mavs were blown out in Game 5)
2008 – Phoenix 105 San Antonio 86 (Suns lost Game 5)
2007 – Chicago 102 Detroit 87 (Bulls actually won Game 6 too)
2005 – Phoenix 111 San Antonio 106 (Suns lost Game 5)
If the Celtics advance, most pundits would expect them to face top-seed Cleveland in the conference semis in a matchup that never transpired in last year’s postseason.
Tip-off is set for 1:00 p.m. EDT, with ABC providing coverage.
If necessary, Game 5 will be played on Tuesday from TD Garden in Boston.
Must-Win for Bulls?
Chicago hung around in its first two battles against Cleveland but could never turn the corner as the club lost both contests on the road by double digits. In Game 3 on Thursday, the Bulls started and finished strong en route to a 108-106 victory at home as four-point underdogs. Vinny Del Negro’s team led by as many as 21 points in the contest and held on late despite getting outscored 39-29 in the fourth quarter.
The Bulls’ Derrick Rose continues to show why he’s an elite point guard in the NBA, after torching the Cavs for 31 in the win. He’s averaging 27.3 points per game in the series and he’s easily the best player on the court next to Cleveland’s LeBron James, who finished with 39 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists in the loss.
Despite the setback in Game 3, oddsmakers opened the Cavaliers as five-point road favorites for Sunday and some quick money pushed the number up to 5 1/2. Chicago has won 25 of its 42 games at the United Center this season but the line tells you a lot especially after pulling within a game. Chicago is only 4-7 SU as a home underdog this season but it’s managed to post a 7-4 ATS mark, which tells you that they’ve been in close games. Those expecting a Cavs’ win but don’t want to lay the points, can get down on a money-line price of minus-260 (Bet $260 to win $100) for Game 5.
Cleveland has produced a 21-9 SU and 15-15 ATS mark as a road favorite this season, but its just 3-6 both SU and ATS in the last nine trips to the Windy City, which includes Thursday’s setback. The inability to solve the Bulls’ success on the road can be directly attributed to defense. Chicago has posted 97 points or more (100 seven times) over this nine-game span, which has helped the ‘over’ go 6-3. And it should be noted, the one instance the Bulls were stifled (85) offensively, they didn’t have Rose or Joakim Noah in the lineup. The total on this game was listed at 206, which was spiked to ‘over’ runs by both teams in mid-March.
For Game 4, the total is hovering at 194 and the ‘over’ is 2-1 in this series and 3-1 in the four encounters played at the United Center this season.
Gamblers expecting for an upset here in this quarterfinal matchup, can take a shot on Chicago at a healthy series price of plus-2600 (Bet $100 to win $2600).
ABC will offer national coverage for this tip at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
After this contest, the two teams will head back to Noah’s favorite destination, Cleveland, on Tuesday for Game 5.
vegasinsider.com
Sunday's Western Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The only lower seeds to lead their respective series take the court on Sunday as both San Antonio and Utah look for commanding 3-1 advantages at home. The short-handed Jazz is coming off a pair of impressive victories over the Nuggets while the Spurs bounced back from a Game 1 loss to claim two straight wins against the Mavs.
Mavericks at Spurs – 7:00 PM EST
These Texas rivals are starting to get under each other’s skin with San Antonio stealing the upper-hand in this series. The Spurs held off the Mavs, 94-90 in Game 3 on Friday night as San Antonio managed to win without nailing a single three-pointer (0-8). Dallas looks to take back the home-court advantage with a victory in Game 4 at the AT&T Center.
The Mavs shot better in the Game 3 loss (44%) from the floor than they did in the Game 2 setback (36%), but past Dirk Nowitzki’s 35 points, Dallas got very little support from other top scorers. Caron Butler and Shawn Marion combined for just nine points, despite six combined treys from Jason Terry and J.J. Barea.
The decision to bring Tony Parker off the bench paid dividends as the Spurs’ point guard put up 23 points on an efficient 10-16 shooting from the floor. Second-year man George Hill struggled from the field, but still tallied 17 points to go along with a team-high 25 from Tim Duncan. It is amazing how San Antonio hit eight three-pointers in Game 2 and failed to knock down a single shot from downtown in Game 3, as the Spurs have already won more games in this series against the Mavs they did in last season’s first round.
Rick Carlisle’s squad has to figure out a way to earn a split in San Antonio to regain home-court in this series. Despite the Game 3 loss, the Mavs are 8-4 SU/ATS on the road off a defeat this season, as San Antonio cashed barely as 3 ½-point ‘chalk.’ On the flip side, the Spurs are just 5-11 ATS off a single-digit victory and 3-6 ATS at home in this situation.
Since the start of March, Gregg Popovich’s team is 10-4 ATS as a favorite, including a 6-2 ATS ledger when laying points at home. The Mavs have not sustained long losing streaks this season as evidenced by a 6-1 SU mark off consecutive setbacks. Dallas has cashed ‘unders’ at a nice rate recently, going 10-4-1 to the ‘under’ since March 23.
The Spurs are listed as a 2 ½-point favorite at most spots, with the total set at 193.
Nuggets at Jazz – 9:30 PM EST
Denver was looking sharp out of the gate with a 126-113 triumph over Utah in the series opener. The Jazz not only lost the game, but lost center Mehmet Okur for the remainder of the playoffs with a torn Achilles’ tendon. Utah responded with a strong effort in a Game 2 victory at Pepsi Center before returning home and capturing Game 3 on Friday night to take a 2-1 series lead.
The Nuggets led by six after the first quarter, but Utah’s defense held Denver to 43% shooting from the floor as the Jazz rallied for a 105-93 victory. Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups each scored 25 points, but every other Nugget was held to single-figure scoring. The Jazz was more balanced offensively with five players scoring in double-figures, including a ferocious 22-point, 19-rebound effort off the bench from Paul Millsap.
Denver’s road woes continue following the Game 3 defeat, falling to 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS the last nine away from the Mile High City. Six of those nine games the Nuggets were listed as an underdog, which is the case once again for Game 4. Also, in six instances in this stretch Denver has been limited to less than 100 points resulting in six ‘unders.’
Utah is a solid 9-3 ATS and 11-1 SU the previous 12 games at home while busting the 100-point plateau ten times in this span. Jerry Sloan’s club owns a sterling 9-2-1 ATS ledger when laying less than 4 ½ points this season, including a 4-1-1 ATS mark at home.
The Jazz is listed as a two-point favorite at most spots, with the total set at 212.
Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood
The Bobcats couldn’t hold off the Magic on Saturday afternoon as Orlando grabbed firm control of the series with a 3-0 advantage. Jameer Nelson shined with a career playoff-high of 32 points, while the Magic nailed nine three-pointers. With the victory, Orlando has won five straight games at Time Warner Cable Arena.
The Bucks needed to bounce back from an 0-2 series deficit and did so with a resounding 107-89 blowout of the Hawks. From the total standpoint, ‘under’ players got a raw deal when Milwaukee and Atlanta combined for 61 points in the final quarter to eclipse the ‘over’ of 188 ½. The Hawks fouled several times in the last 60 seconds as the two clubs tallied 15 points, much to the chagrin of ‘under’ backers.
Desperate times call for desperate measures and that was the case for the Blazers as star guard Brandon Roy returned for the Game 4 victory over the Suns to even the series at two apiece. Roy missed the first three games of the series after suffering a knee injury at the end of the regular season, as the All-Star scored 10 points, while giving Portland the emotional lift it needed to climb back into this series. Both games at the Rose Garden easily finished ‘under’ the total, as the series shifts back to Phoenix on Monday.
vegasinsider.com
NBA RoundUp For 4/25
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Heat - Miami by 1 with a total of 185. This is a pretty hefty line move, given Boston came in and beat the Heat as a 4.5 point underdog. A three point swing just because Boston won that game? Not likely. This line is moving because the Heat are expected to roll over and call it a series, and honestly, they probably will. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs, and the Heat, completely overmatched in two games in Boston and then dealing with that backbreaking loss in game three, just don't really seem to have a chance. I believe Dwyane Wade's issue was a cramp, though I'm not entirely sure, and the only real motivation the Heat are going to have in this one is to play hard enough to try to show Dwyane Wade that there's some sort of a future in Miami. But, let's be honest, the only thing that's going to keep Wade in Miami is another star, and I'm not talking about an aging veteran that disappears come Playoff time (Jermaine, we're looking at you). I'm talking about a significant addition - someone like a Chris Bosh would do nicely. So, why should the Heat play hard? I think they'll come out and hang with the Celtics for a quarter, but this Boston team is packed with veterans that know how to close out a series. Lean to Boston to win this game and send the Heat fishin'. The total of 185 is an adjustment off the 198 points we saw scored in the last game, but if indeed this one gets a little less intense as the game progresses, it could potentially go over again. Still, that number feels about right for a final score. No lean on the total, yet.
Cavaliers @ Bulls - Cleveland by 6 with a total of 194. Okay, so, wait a minute. We just saw the line in the Boston game come down 2.5 points off a Boston road win, and we established at least SOME of that move was the motivational factor. But this one moved 2 points off a Chicago outright win as a 3.5-point underdog. An opposite direction line move is a pretty strong statement by the oddsmakers that the Cavs come out and play this one tougher. It almost seemed like Cleveland was trying to figure out just how hard they had to play to beat the Bulls in game two at home, then brought that same effort on the road and got leveled in the first half. Cleveland came back to make a game of it, but Chicago held on for a huge win to cut their deficit in the series down to just 2-1. This line feels inflated, but considering Chicago won a a 3.5-point underdog, it also feels like it's a "high for a reason" situation. I would be very careful before jumping on Chicago, here, figuring that if they can win one, and now they're getting more points, then surely they can cover this one. Still, people are invariably going to bet on Lebron no matter the spread, so it's tough to say that one side is the "value" play, here. Slight lean to Cleveland to exert some dominance, though winning by 5.5 on the road in the Playoffs isn't going to be easy. The total of 194 is interesting, as the last two games in this series have hit 214. After game two, oddsmakers adjusted the total up a couple points, but after game three, the total remained, basically, the same. Oddsmakers don't like games to keep hitting the same result, so to me, this line is an indicator that they feel this one slows down a bit. Slight lean to the Under.
Mavericks @ Spurs - San Antonio by 2.5 with a total of 193. Another side coming down despite the home team winning, and covering, at a higher number. This one is the smallest adjustment we've seen so far, which tells me oddsmakers were pretty pleased with how the last one went. The Spurs were 3 or 3.5-point favorites, and won by 4. Nicely done by the books, yet again. So, assuming the Mavericks try to steal back home court, this side is lower by a point. Will the Mavs pull it off? Tough to say. The Spurs have pushed them around a little bit the last two games, and the veterans of San Antonio are really hitting their stride. I think that the short adjustment on the line might actually mean there's a tiny bit of value on the Mavs side (since we saw pretty standard 2-point moves - or more - in the other game fours above). The Spurs could just as easily win this game by double digits, though I think Dallas fights like crazy to keep this thing close. I didn't see anything in game three, though, to make me think that Dallas had solved San Antonio. Absolutely the world's smallest lean to Dallas, and this could change. The total of 193 is only a half point lower than the total in game three, which ended with a final score of 184, so the money must have been split, and oddsmakers didn't have to move it, much. If Dallas is going to get this one, they're going to need to speed things up a little bit and hit some shots. If I have the world's tiniest lean to Dallas, I should pair that with the world's second-tiniest lean to the Over.
Nuggets @ Jazz - Utah by 2 with a total of 212. Just about the same number as in game three on the side, and a couple points lower on the total. No surprise, really, considering, as noted, we've seen most of these sides drop by roughly 2 points if the game was relatively close. This one wasn't. The Jazz just kept applying pressure until the Nuggets missed shots, and Utah absolutely ran away with it. After watching game three, it's tough to see the Nuggets coming back to grab home court. They looked lost, and every time Utah made a shot, it seemed like they fell farther and farther out of focus. And for that reason, I would say that this game is best avoided. When one team looks that horrible, that team is going to have some value in the next one, but only if you actually believe they can win, and I'm not sure I do. No lean on the side. The total of 212 is lower by a fair amount compared to the last game, but does Denver play that poorly again? The game slowed down considerably in game three, and if the teams shoot their normal percentage, we probably see a final score around 208-210. This one might be too close to call, though if Denver shoots a little better and Utah a little worse, it could stay under again. This is my avoid game on both side and total, at least for now.