Sunday's Early Action
By Chris David
The NBA continues its weekend coverage on Sunday with another four games spread throughout the day, including an early pair of battles in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics look to go up 3-1 on the Bulls, while the Cavaliers attempt to sweep the Pistons in their opening round series.
Before you delve into the two contests, be sure to stay abreast with the latest PLAYOFF RESULTS.
Boston at Chicago: It’s amazing how a couple shots or misses can make people start second guessing a team, especially the defending champions. We understand that the Celtics were one Ray Allen performance away from falling into a 0-2 hole to Chicago, but did you really believe the champs were on their last legs?
Looking at the big picture, you could’ve made the argument and good one too. Doc Rivers’ club just gave up 105 and 115 points at home and barely escaped a tough deficit against a younger, feistier Bulls squad. The loss of Kevin Garnett and both sides of the court was showing and Chicago showed no fear.
Heading to the Windy City for Game 3, the Celtics were listed as underdogs (+3.5). Sure enough, Gang Green dissected the Bulls for a dominating 107-86 victory. After Chicago’s rookie Derrick Rose stole the spotlight in the first two games with a combined 65 points, Boston’s point guard Rajon Rondo countered again and again. He dropped 20 points, 11 boards, six assists and added six steals to the stat sheet to boot. Rondo was carried off the court, which lead to speculation of an apparent injury. Rivers laughed it off and said he went through practice with “no problems” at all.
After shooting 42 and 50 percent in the first two games, the Bulls came back to life with a dismal 37 percent effort in Game 3’s loss. Which offense will show up in Game 4? Chicago did average 104 PPG at the United Center this year but that might not be the problem, rather its defense.
The Bulls entered the playoffs giving up more points than they scored, which doesn’t breed success in the second season. It has helped the ‘over’ go 24-18. While Chicago likes to run at home, the Celtics’ defense (92 PPG) has helped the ‘under’ go 27-15 outside of Massachusetts.
Despite the 21-point loss at home on Thursday, the books still have the Bulls listed as three-point favorites for Game 4. The total is sitting at 200 points.
Chicago owns a 28-14 SU and 22-20 ATS record at home, while Boston stands at 28-14 SU and 23-19 ATS on the road.
Game 3 watched the combined 193 points fall ‘under’ the closing total of 202. The ‘over’ cashed in the previous four affairs and has gone 7-2 in the last nine, including Thursday’s final margin.
After this contest, the two teams will head back to Boston for Game 5 on Tuesday.
Game 4 will be televised on ABC at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Cleveland at Detroit: Some pundits believe that a series doesn’t begin until one team faces elimination but most would agree that this best-of-seven battle was over before it started. The Cavaliers entered the playoffs as the No. 1 overall seed and they’ve looked every bit the part.
Cleveland has opened up a 3-0 lead over Detroit and every win has come by double digits as well. LeBron James and company have posted a perfect 3-0 mark against the number during the series and now own a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark against the Pistons this year.
Will we see another win and cover on Sunday? The oddsmakers believe so, listing the Cavs as 8 ½-point road favorites in Game 4.
Should we be surprised? Detroit did enter the playoffs as the only team with a losing record, and it lost six of its final nine games during the regular season too. Even during Game 3’s loss at The Palace of Auburn Hills, the crowd led chants of “M-V-P” for James, who is averaging 30.6 PPG, 10.7 RPG and 7.3 APG during this series.
The Pistons have gone 21-21 at home this year, but are a dreadful 13-29 ATS. As a home underdog, Detroit is just 2-5 ATS, which could be another reason to fade this club.
If you’re expecting a sense of urgency from the Pistons and looking at the pride factor, then perhaps you should focus on the total. Game 1 watched the 186 points jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 175 points. We mention that outcome because that was the only contest in the last 12 meetings to go ‘over’ the total.
The second and third installments fell short of the closing numbers (178, 178.5) and surprisingly the total is still hovering around 177 points for the fourth battle.
Cleveland has proved that it can put the bucket in the basket however Detroit is only averaging 78 PPG in this series, which is 16 points (94 PPG) lower than its season average in Motown.
Another low-scoring affair seems possible and is expected by Cleveland. “Game 4 is all about pride. It'll be a grind-it-out game,” guard Mo Williams said.
Gamblers weary of laying the points in this matchup with the Cavs can play them on the money-line at minus-500 (Bet $500 to $100). Or you can tie the money-line into the total (-110). If you roll with the Cavs (-500) and Under (-110), our parlay calculator shows you can wager $100 to win back $130.
Those believing the series will go back to Cleveland for Game 5 can play the Pistons at plus-375 (Bet $100 to win $375). If that happens, the two teams will meet on Wednesday.
ABC will continue its national coverage of the playoffs at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
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Late Action Tip Sheet
By Brad Young
Things are really starting to get interesting in the NBA’s opening round. Philadelphia has its sights set on a first-round upset over third-seed Orlando in an Eastern Division series. The Sixers finished 18 games behind the Magic in the win column during the regular campaign.
Another first-round series that has been getting plenty of attention is the 4-5 matchup in the Western Conference. Houston now has a 2-1 series lead over Portland, and is hosting Sunday’s affair with a chance to take a two-game advantage. The Rockets have had the upper hand recently in head-to-head matchups, and they are trying to make the second round despite not having superstar Tracy McGrady in the lineup due to an injury.
Now let’s take a closer look at both of these first-round matchups.
**Magic (3) at Sixers (6)**
-Caesars Palace opened Orlando as a four-point road ‘chalk’ over Philadelphia, with the total set at 191. TNT will provide coverage of this contest beginning at 6:35 p.m. ET.
-Orlando is currently listed as a $2.70 favorite to win this series despite trailing Philadelphia two games to one in the series. The Sixers are presently a $2.10 underdog to advance to the next round.
-The Magic (60-25 straight up, 49-35 against the spread) fell to Philadelphia (43-42 SU, 39-45 ATS) in Friday’s Game 3 as a 3 ½-point road favorite, 96-94. The combined 190 points failed to topple the 192-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest. The Sixers have covered all three games in this series.
-Orlando shot 43 percent (31-of-73) from the field, and 40 percent (8-of-20) from behind the arc. Center Dwight Howard led all scorers with 36 points and 11 rebounds, while guard Rafer Alston added 17 and five. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis combined to shoot a dismal 7-of-25 from the field.
-Philadelphia’s Thaddeus Young had just six points, but hit the winning bucket with just 2 seconds remaining. Andre Iguodala led the charge with 29 points and seven rebounds, while point guard Andre Miller added 24, nine and seven assists. The Sixers finished the contest by shooting 52 percent (37-of-71) from the field and 40 percent (4-of-10) from 3-point land.
-Orlando maintains a solid 27-15 SU and 26-15 ATS road record, winning those affairs by an average score of 101-97. The Magic tied Cleveland and Boston for the second-best SU road record in the league, trailing the Los Angeles Lakers by just two games.
-Philadelphia is 25-17 SU and 19-22 ATS when playing at Wachovia Center, with the ‘under’ going 24-17. The Sixers have been winning their home endeavors by an average score of 98-94.
-Before Friday’s Game 3 setback, Orlando went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS its last five games in Philadelphia.
-The Sixers are two wins away from their second playoff series victory since the 2001 campaign when the franchise advanced all the way to the NBA Finals.
**Blazers (4) at Rockets (5)**
-Caesars Palace installed Houston as a 4 ½-point home favorite over Portland, with the total listed at 182. The total has remained the same, but the Rockets originally opened as a four-point ‘chalk.’ TNT starts its coverage of Game 4 at 9:05 p.m. ET.
-Portland currently is a $2.20 underdog to win this series, while Houston is now a $3.00 favorite. The Rockets enter Game 4 with a 2-1 series advantage.
-Portland (55-30 SU, 47-38 ATS) dropped Friday’s matchup with Houston (55-30 SU, 42-42 ATS) as a six-point road underdog, 86-83. The combined 169 points never seriously threatened the 184 ½-point closing total, ending back-to-back ‘over’ outings in this series. The Blazers had failed to cover the first two games versus the Rockets.
-Houston won the rebounding battle, 41-32, while shooting 46 percent (32-of-69) from the field. Power forward Luis Scola accounted for 19 points and nine rebounds, while center Yao Ming added seven and 13.
-Portland connected at a 42-percent clip (32-of-76) from the field in the setback, and 44 percent (10-of-23) from behind the arc. Brandon Roy stepped up with 19 points and seven rebounds, while backcourt mate Steve Blake added 16 and 10 assists.
-Houston has now won 11 of the past 12 meetings SU with Portland at Toyota Center. The Rockets are now 34-8 SU and 20-21 ATS at home, with the ‘under’ going 23-18. Houston has been winning its home endeavors by an average score of 100-91.
-Portland is now 9-2 SU in games decided by three points or fewer. The Blazers are 20-22 SU and ATS away from home, with the ‘under’ going 24-18. The average score in those contests has been 95-95.
-Houston center Dikembe Mutombo (knee) is ‘out’ for the rest of the season.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: NBA on ABC
By Chris Bernucca
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (-2.5, 200)
Head to head
The Celtics went 2-1 against the Bulls in the regular season and are 2-1 in this first-round series. The home team won all three regular-season games. In the postseason, the road team has broken through twice for straight-up wins while covering all three games.
Bullies or bullied?
What Bulls team will show up Sunday?
The one that played with unflappable confidence and covered 8.5-point spreads in each of the first two games in Boston. Or the one that came home and looked overwhelmed by expectations and wasn't close to competitive in Game 3?
The trade deadline brought the acquisition of current rotation players John Salmons and Brad Miller, giving the Bulls a badly needed veteran presence. But the team's overall youth is a factor. In Derrick Rose, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah, the Bulls have three starters relying on energy to mask their inexperience.
"We obviously played well on the road - a split in Boston in a tough environment," Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro told reporters. "But definitely we had a big learning curve here (in Chicago). We're still dealing with young guys who haven't been through it."
Cagey without KG
Kevin Garnett is not walking through that door, ladies and gentlemen. At least not in this series. And where Garnett's absence clearly affects the Celtics is the total.
Since his injury in late February, the Celtics’ games have hit the over 18 times in 29 games. They have relied on outscoring foes more often that stopping them.
The defense that was virtually non-existent on its home floor returned for Boston in Game 3. Not coincidentally, it was also the first time the teams played under the total.
The Celtics allowed an average of 110 points on 46 percent shooting while forcing an average of 15 turnovers in the first two games. In Game 3, those numbers were 86 point on 37.5 percent with 22 turnovers.
"For two days, we heard that we couldn't play defense," Celtics coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "I thought our guys really came out with a great defensive purpose."
Meanwhile, the offense is still humming, averaging nearly 113 points in the series.
Trends
The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games
The Bulls were held below 90 points at home once this season
The Celtics are 3-2 straight up and 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games as road underdogs dating to last season
The Celtics have scored at least 100 points in 10 of their last 11 games, exceeding the total eight times
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers (+8, 177)
Head to head
Since winning the season series opener in November, the Pistons have lost the last six meetings with the Cavaliers and all but one of those by double digits. Cleveland has covered the number in every win except one, limiting Detroit to 78.5 points per game.
Not firing on all cylinders
Normally one of the most stable franchises in the NBA, the Pistons had a topsy-turvy season with new coach, a huge trade, injuries, lineup changes and the Allen Iverson saga. After reaching the conference finals six straight years, Detroit is on the verge of being swept in the first round.
After losing Game 2 in Cleveland, Pistons forward Antonio McDyess said the team was "going through the motions." The normally hot-headed Rasheed Wallace has been uncharacteristically dispassionate and, after briefly taking the lead, Detroit appeared to give up in the fourth quarter of Game 3.
The Pistons have shown very little fight in this series and bettors have to wonder how they will come out for Game 4, knowing that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series.
"This is killing me. I can't even lie," Pistons guard Richard Hamilton told the media. "It's a terrible situation."
Pistons coach Michael Curry noted that the Cavaliers have been the more aggressive team. That has been evident at the foul line, where Detroit is 33-of-40 and Cleveland is 74-of-100.
"The difference is the free-throw line," Curry admitted to the press. "That's an area where they've dominated us this series."
No Cavalier attitude
One of the keys to deep playoff runs is closing out series as quickly as possible. En route to its first trip to the NBA Finals in 2007, Cleveland dispatched Washington in four games in the opening round.
The Cavaliers have a terrific chance to do it again Sunday. The Pistons appear beaten and superstar LeBron James has shown a killer instinct in recent postseasons.
A year ago, Cleveland was 1-2 straight up in close-out games. However, it was 2-1 ATS with both covers coming on the road. In 2007, the Cavaliers were 3-1 straight up in potential series clinchers and again covered both road games.
"There's no such thing as easy wins in the playoffs," said James, who is averaging 30.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists in the series. "To be up 3-0 in the playoffs is a great thing, but it's not gonna be easy."
James has made it easier by overpowering every defender Detroit has used on him, from 6-foot-9 string bean Tayshaun Prince to shorter, stocky guards Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo. He is shooting 55 percent from the field while attempting two more free throws than the entire Detroit team.
Trends
The Pistons are 34-51 ATS this season
The Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home underdog
The Cavaliers are 53-32 ATS this season
The under is 17-4 in the last 21 meetings between the teams in Detroit
BOSTON (64 - 21) at CHICAGO (42 - 43)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 56-39 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 37-52 ATS (-20.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 8-5 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-5 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND (69 - 16) at DETROIT (39 - 46)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 14-7 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 12-9 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
16 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO (60 - 25) at PHILADELPHIA (43 - 42)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 7-6 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 9-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND (55 - 30) at HOUSTON (55 - 30)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-7 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 10-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON vs. CHICAGO
Boston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Chicago is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Boston
Chicago is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Boston
CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Detroit is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Cleveland
ORLANDO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Orlando is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
Orlando is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing at home against Orlando
Philadelphia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Orlando
PORTLAND vs. HOUSTON
Portland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Houston
Portland is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boston at Chicago
Boston:
25-11 ATS as an underdog
15-5 ATS off SU dog win
Chicago:
37-52 ATS playing with revenge
32-49 ATS off home game
Detroit at Cleveland
Cleveland:
15-1 ATS if led L3 games by 5+ at the half
29-12 ATS off road game
Detroit:
0-11 ATS off division loss
5-13 ATS off DD loss
Orlando at Philadelphia
Orlando:
44-19 ATS playing with revenge
11-3 ATS off road loss
Philadelphia:
29-16 Under at home if total is between 190 and 199.5
26-15 Under off SU win
Portland at Houston
Portland:
1-9 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less
22-41 ATS off road ATS win/SU loss
Houston:
9-1 Under at home in April
23-7 Under at home if the total is between 180 and 189.5
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls
Celtics: "I think he's (Rajon Rondo) played at an elite level in this playoff series, no doubt about it," coach Doc Rivers said. "And I think he's played at times this year at an elite level. He's gone up and down at times, but that is his youth. ... He came into this playoffs with a chip because everyone said he only played well at home last year. "Rondo, however, said: "I don't try to prove anything to anybody. I play for myself and for the team. That's about it." His work on defense, particularly on the glass, helped prevent the Bulls from pushing the tempo in Game 3, and he continues to hit his shots.
The Over is 8-2 in the Celtics' last 10 overall.
The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - F Kevin Garnett (knee) is DOUBTFUL.
F Leon Powe (knee) is OUT for the season.
G Rajon Rondo (ankle) is PROBABLE.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101
Bulls (-3, O/U 200): Derrick Rose has struggled against aggressive double teams the past two games, scoring 10 in Game 2 and nine in Game 3 while committing seven turnovers. The same goes for Ben Gordon, who went from 42 points to 15 on Thursday. The Bulls need to swing the ball and find openings when the guards are doubled. "Our bigs are good passers," Noah said. "We can make plays. I don't think we did a great job of that (in Game 3). It was embarrassing. It's a situation we can't forget. But we must cherish the ball and not turn it over, play every possession like it's our last."
The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
The Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - F Luol Deng (leg) is DOUBTFUL
PROJECTED SCORE: 104 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)