Sunday's Best NBA Bets
Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets (-5.5, 200.5)
The Hawks are seemingly locked into the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference without much chance of moving up or down as the playoffs near. Still, that does not mean Atlanta has lacked motivation or effort.
The team has won four in a row (4-0 ATS) and is coming off big wins Thursday and Friday, against rivals Orlando and Boston respectively.
“Some reporters might write us off,” Josh Smith told the Atlanta Journal Constitution after beating the Celtics, “but we’re a playoff team and we know it…. We’re as good as anybody, when we put an effort to it.”
If the Hawks can beat anybody, they can definitely beat a Houston team whose playoff hopes are on life support. The Rockets outlasted San Antonio in overtime on Friday, but the Spurs are losing to everyone nowadays. And Houston still finds itself three games back of eighth-place Memphis in the Western Conference.
Pick: Hawks
Miami Heat at New Jersey Nets (10.5, 199)
New Jersey won five in a row in early March, but the team is back to playing like the Nets of old. Avery Johnson’s club has dropped five straight (2-3 ATS) and nine of 10 (3-7 ATS).
Deron Williams’ wrist injury has contributed to the slump, but he played in the Nets’ last two games and nothing changed. Williams scored a mere four points on 2-of-8 shooting in Friday’s 115-90 loss at Philadelphia.
Nor does head-to-head history bode well for New Jersey heading into Sunday’s home date. The Heat has won the last six meetings, and neither of this season’s matchups was really competitive. Miami prevailed on the road 101-78 in late October and cruised 101-89 at home a week later.
Whereas the Nets are struggling, Miami is starting to get things together just in time for the postseason. The Heat has won two in a row (2-0 ATS) and seven of its last eight (4-4 ATS).
Miami's Mike Miller (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s clash, but New Jersey could be without Kris Humphries, who is averaging a double-double. He’s questionable with an ankle injury.
Pick: Heat
NBA on ABC Betting Preview
By David Chan
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs (NA)
The Suns and Spurs have faced each other twice this season heading into Thursday’s clash but only once at full strength and none since Phoenix took on a new look via a blockbuster trade.
Back on November 3, visiting San Antonio pulled out a 112-110 win behind 28 points from Richard Jefferson and a huge double-double (25 points and 17 rebounds) for Tim Duncan. The Spurs committed a ridiculous 23 turnovers but made up for it by shooting 54.5 percent from the floor.
Tim Duncan is back from an ankle sprain.
When the two teams squared off on December 20, the Suns (37-38, 34-38-3 ATS) had made their deal with the Magic and were without Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, and Mickael Pietrus. The result was a 118-110 victory for host San Antonio that was far more convincing than the final score suggested. Phoenix again failed to contain Duncan, who delivered 20 points and 15 boards.
Duncan heals, Spurs don’t
For a while it looked like the Suns would not have to go up against Duncan this time around, but the “Big Fundamental” is back earlier than expected from a high ankle sprain. Duncan missed only four games (all losses) after injuring himself in a win over Golden State March 21 and returned against the Celtics Thursday.
He wasted no time in making his presence felt. Duncan produced 20 points and 13 rebounds in a loss to the Celtics and he followed that up by going for 23 points and 13 boards in an overtime loss at Houston Friday.
Still, even the return of Duncan has not been able to stop San Antonio’s skid, which is now at six games and is the team’s longest in 14 years. It’s not that the Spurs (57-19, 41-33-2 ATS) haven’t been competitive - it’s that they cannot finish off games.
“What hurts the most is the déjà vu,” Popovich told the San Antonio Express-News after losing to the Rockets. “We're up three. We get a stop, and we have the rebound. And we throw it away for no reason whatsoever. So we give away another game at the end of regulation. That hurts a lot.”
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The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, but they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
The over is 5-1 in San Antonio’s last six home games and 5-0 in its last five against the Western Conference.
Head-to-head, Phoenix is 8-1 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in its last four trips to San Antonio. The over is 8-1 in the last nine encounters.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers (-7, 202.5)
Denver and L.A. are also going head-to-head for the third time this season, but this time it’s at the Staples Center.
The Nuggets took care of their home court on November 11 by prevailing 118-112 thanks to 32 points and 13 rebounds by Carmelo Anthony. They could not do the same on January 21, as the visiting Lakers (55-20, 37-37-1 ATS) picked up a 107-97 win. Pau Gasol went for 19 and 13 in the second contest while Lamar Odom finished with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
Of course, neither encounter holds much water now because Anthony is long gone and Denver is a new team.
Denver is 15-2-1 ATS since trading Carmelo Anthony.
No Melo, no problem
The revamped Nuggets have been impressive, going 14-4 (15-2-1 ATS) post-trade. They have won five straight (3-1-1 ATS) and nine of their last 11 contests (9-1-1 ATS). Denver is coming off a home-and-home with Sacramento Thursday and Friday, and George Karl’s crew had no trouble either time.
What a difference a year makes, as Karl was at home undergoing cancer treatment last April and his team got hammered in the playoffs later in the month. For now at least, this spring could not be going better for the Nuggets.
“Very few times in your coaching career does your team spark and come together like this team has come together—and has done so in a short period of time,” Karl told the Denver Post on Saturday. “I'm just trying to convince them to keep working at it. You are a good team and you can be a better team.”
Gone streaking
If anything can stop Denver (46-29, 39-32-4 ATS), it could be a combination of injuries. To say the team is banged up following a very physical battle against the Kings would be an understatement.
Arron Afflalo (hamstring) and Al Harrington (Achilles) are questionable for Thursday’s clash. Melvin Ely is also questionable due to personal reasons. Chris Anderson (ankle) is listed as doubtful.
The Lakers, meanwhile, are on a nine-game surge (5-4 ATS) and have come out on the winning end in 17 of their last 18 outings (12-6 ATS).
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The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
The under is 4-0 in Denver’s last four road games and 7-1 in its last eight overall.
Head-to-head, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings at the Staples Center and 14-5 in the last 19 overall. The Lakers are 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games against the Nuggets.
Hot Lakers host Nuggets on ABC-TV
By: Brad Young
Two Western Conference playoff teams collide on the pro basketball hardwood Sunday when the Denver Nuggets visit Los Angeles to play the Lakers during the second game of an ABC-TV doubleheader. Tip-off from Staples Center is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. (PT).
The Nuggets appear to have a lock on the fifth seed, which would translate into a first-round series with Oklahoma City.
The Lakers have been the hottest team in the NBA since the All-Star Break, and they are quickly moving to overtake San Antonio atop the Western Conference standings. The two-time defending champion Lakers are now just 1½ games behind the Spurs with seven games remaining.
These two teams are hoping to avoid any key injuries heading into the postseason. Denver has posted a 14-4 SU ledger since the Carmelo Anthony trade, while Los Angeles is 17-1 SU since hosting the All-Star Game.
Denver is riding a five-game SU winning streak (3-1-1 ATS) after Friday’s 99-90 victory over Sacramento as a five-point road favorite. The combined 199 points never seriously threatened the 217 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 7-1 in Denver’s previous eight outings.
The Nuggets took control of the contest by outscoring the Kings in the third quarter, 31-16. Denver finished the game with advantages in rebounding, 45-41, assists, 23-19, and points in the paint, 58-48. The Nuggets shot a solid 49 percent (39-of-80) from the field, and 29 percent (4-of-14) from behind the arc.
Point guard Raymond Felton scored 14 of his 17 points in the fourth quarter, while power forward Kenyon Martin added 14. Center Nene contributed 12 and 12 rebounds in the victory, while shooting guard Arron Afflalo had 11 and five. Denver has now gone 19-7-1 ATS its last 27 games overall.
Los Angeles continued its winning ways by beating Utah Friday as an eight-point road ‘chalk,’ 96-85. The Lakers have now covered their last three games, while the combined 181 points went ‘under’ the 193 ½-point closing total.
Los Angeles found itself trailing the Jazz by 17 points in the first half, but stormed back for the road victory. The Lakers won despite trailing Utah in rebounding, 44-39, and points in the paint, 50-38. Los Angeles shot 48 percent (34-of-71) from the field, and 39 percent (7-of-18) from 3-point land.
Power forward Lamar Odom scored 16 points and grabbed seven rebounds off the bench, while shooting guard Kobe Bryant paced the offense with 21. Power forward Pau Gasol provided 16 and nine in the victory, while point guard Derek Fisher netted 15. The Lakers are 7-2 ATS their previous nine games versus Northwest Division opponents.
Los Angeles and Denver have split two earlier games this season, with each club covering the spread once. The Nuggets prevailed Nov. 11 as a three-point home underdog, 118-112, while the Lakers won Jan. 21 as a one-point road ‘chalk,’ 107-97. The ‘under’ is 14-5 the past 19 meetings in this series.
The Don Best Sports injury report lists Denver center Melvin Ely (personal), forward Al Harrington (Achilles) and guard Arron Afflalo (hamstring) as “questionable,” while forward Chris Andersen (ankle) is “doubtful.” Los Angeles forward Lamar Odom (flu) and forward Matt Barnes (suspension served) are “probable” against the Nuggets.
The Nuggets return home after this game to play Oklahoma City before traveling to face Dallas and the Thunder. The Lakers host Utah following this contest before embarking on a two-game road trip against Golden State and Portland.
Inside the Paint - Sunday
By Chris David
The Association takes the day off tomorrow for Monday’s college basketball finale, which leaves us with an 11-game slate today. The action starts with a televised double-header on ABC at 1:00 p.m. EST, highlighted with two Western Conference matchups. Let’s take a closer look and also hit on some angles for the nine late contests.
Seven Straight Losses?
Despite owning the best record in the NBA all season, San Antonio (57-19 SU, 40-34 ATS) still wasn’t given respect by the oddsmakers and we’re starting to see why. Greg Popovich’s team is searching for answers as they’ve dropped six straight (2-4 ATS) games. To San Antonio’s defense, it’s not getting blown out by any means. Four of the losses were by seven or less and another four were without All-Star Tim Duncan too. What is a tad troubling and definitely surprising for the Spurs is their defense. A team once proud of their stifling attitude is now a thing of the past, especially lately. During this skid, they’ve surrendered 108.3 PPG.
Fortunately for the Spurs, they’ll be facing a Phoenix (37-38 SU, 33-38 ATS) team that has slowed down its tempo from past seasons. The Suns have had an up-and-down run and will more than likely miss the playoffs. Even though point guard Steve Nash (flu) missed Friday’s games against the L.A. Clippers, the club still pulled out a 111-98 victory at home. The win snapped a four-game losing skid both SU and ATS. Nash’s status remains day-to-day, which is why there was no opener posted on this game. After this game, the Suns will remain on the road for four more games. Nash has been ruled 'out' for this game, but no opening line has been posted yet.
San Antonio definitely faces a must-win spot here today, especially if it wants to earn the top overall seed. The Spurs have defeated the Suns twice this season, both victories coming in 2010 and both by single digits. The ‘over’ easily cashed (112-110, 118-110) in the two affairs.
Hot and Hotter!
Do you lay seven points with the L.A. Lakers (55-20 SU, 37-37 ATS) at home? Seems like a no brainer these days, no matter the opponent. Los Angeles has gone 17-1 since the All-Star break and has ripped off nine straight wins. Phil Jackson’s team has closed the lead on San Antonio to 1 ½-games for the top spot in the Western Conference and they have a great shot to pull it off. After Sunday’s affair, the Lakers have six games remaining with three on the road and three at home. The key matchup could come on Apr. 12 when the aforementioned Spurs visit the Staples Center.
Today’s game against Denver (46-29 SU, 40-32 ATS) is no walk in the park and the point-spread certainly says so. The Nuggets have been just as hot and a wager on them as underdogs certainly seems like a great look. Since sending Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the Knicks in exchange for a handful of players, Denver has produced a 14-4 SU record. Even more impressive, the Nuggets have gone 15-2-1 against the spread during this run and the wins haven’t just come against inferior clubs. Some victories that stand out were against Boston (89-75), New Orleans (114-103) and San Antonio (115-112).
George Karl’s team brings a five-game win streak into Sunday’s matchup against the Lakers, which will be the first of four tough battles. After Los Angeles, Denver hosts the Thunder on Tuesday before visiting Dallas the following night. Then, they head to Oklahoma City on Friday.
This will be the third and final meeting between the Nuggets and Lakers and the only encounter from Los Angeles. The Nuggets captured a 118-112 decision in early November and the Lakers avenged that loss with a 107-97 win in mid-January from Pepsi Center. ‘Melo scored 32 in Denver’s win but just 23 in the loss. The ‘over/under’ went 1-1.
Total players should note that Denver has watched the ‘under’ go 13-5 since ‘Melo left the team. Also, the Lakers have seen the ‘under’ go 11-7 in the second-half. Today’s ‘over/under’ is hovering between 202 and 203 points.
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Utah has been the biggest disappointment of the season, especially after starting 15-5. It traded point guard Deron Williams and watched legendary head coach Jerry Sloan resign amidst alleged arguments with Williams. Key injuries have also played a major part in Utah’s fall and definitely contributed to its current seven-game losing skid (2-4-1 ATS). The Jazz have an intriguing battle at Sacramento on tap for tonight.
Cleveland is 3-0 both SU and ATS against New York this season, winning all three games as a live underdog. The Cavs are catching points (12) again today. Total players should note that the ‘over’ has cashed in all three as well. Today’s number is
Toronto will look to snap a five-game losing skid (1-4 ATS) when Orlando visits. Key injuries to forward Andrea Bargnani (ankle) and Jose Calderon (hamstring) have hurt the club.
Miami and the Nets have watched their last seven meetings go ‘under’ the number. Despite that run, still a high total (199) out there.
Boston lost eight times at home this season. Seven of those setbacks came to Western Conference opponents. The Celtics are laying 11 to the Pistons at TD Garden this evening.
Washington has 19 wins this season and it just beat Cleveland (115-107) on Friday. Flip Saunders’ team heads to Charlotte and gamblers should know that the Wizards have only won consecutive games once this season. No early line due to injuries but if it’s short, the home squad could have value.
Atlanta has quietly ripped off four straight wins both SU and ATS. Will the streak continue at Houston tonight? Oddsmakers are ignoring that run, with the Rockets listed as five-point favorites.
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