What Bettors Need To Know: Spurs at Lakers
By Steve Merril
Playoff positioning
Los Angeles will be the No. 1 seed in the West. The Lakers have a five-game lead over Dallas with six games to play so barring a total collapse; the West will have to go through LA.
San Antonio’s destination isn’t so clear cut. The Spurs are currently in the 7th spot with seven games to play but two other teams, Oklahoma City and Portland, also have 46 wins going into Saturday’s action. San Antonio will finish in either the 6th, 7th or 8th spot for the playoffs. The Spurs do not want to finish last because that means a first-round matchup with the Lakers and an early exit for San Antonio.
Current form
Before their easy win over the Jazz on Friday night, the Lakers were mired in a mini slump. Los Angeles had lost three of four going into that game because they played terrible defense in allowing three straight opponents to score 101 points or more.
One of the reasons for the Lakers' lackluster play on their trip was a lack of practice time, according to Derek Fisher. The team practiced only once in eight days on its cross-country trek and had little success adjusting on the fly.
"It's been tough for us to play at a high level," Fisher said.
San Antonio comes into this game hot having won and covered in four of their last five games. Three of their four wins came over playoff-bound teams in Cleveland, Boston and Orlando. Their lone loss came against the worst team in the league, the Nets, go figure.
No love in LA LA Land
Playing in the City of Angels has been no fun for the Spurs. San Antonio has lost their last four trips by an average of 16 points per game. Their offense has been dreadful in those games, scoring 92 points or less in all four behind a 40.5 percent (134-331) shooting mark from the field.
The opposite is true for the Lakers. Los Angeles has scored 99 points or more in their four most recent home games against San Antonio. The Lakers offense has been good from the floor in those games, connecting on 47.1 percent (147-312) of their shots.
Injury updates
Tony Parker remains out for San Antonio. The Spurs really haven’t missed him at all as George Hill has played terrific basketball in his place. San Antonio is cashing at a 73 percent clip (11-4 ATS) when Parker does not play so his absence has been a non-issue for Spurs bettors.
Andrew Bynum is out for Los Angeles and his absence has affected the Lakers. Bynum is LA’s true inside presence, and the Lakers can be scored upon in the paint without him on the court. The Lakers are just 3-4 ATS when the big man doesn’t suit up.
Series facts
Los Angeles is 2-1 SU and ATS against San Antonio this season. Kobe Bryant did not play in the second meeting which the Lakers won by 12 points (101-89).
The Lakers covered in their 106-92 win over Utah on Friday night. However, Los Angeles hasn’t covered the pointspread in back-to-back games since early February – a string of 22 games.
Despite San Antonio playing some high-scoring games recently (6-3-1 over/under in their last 10), the series history between these two has been low scoring. The under is 3-0 this season with scores of 190, 190 and 175.
Over the last ten meetings in this series, the under has cashed in eight of those games.
Inside the Paint - Sunday
By Chris David
Sunday’s holiday slate is highlighted with two conference clashes, plus there are six other games to keep an eye on as well. Let’s dive right in with the televised tilts.
Cleveland (60-16 SU, 37-39 ATS) at Boston (47-28 SU, 29-45 ATS)
Gamblers start Sunday with a tough game to handicap, especially when you look at the current form of each club. We understand that Cleveland has gone 9-1 in its last 10, but it’s only 4-6 ATS during this span and that includes four non-covers in a row. After winning six of seven, Boston has dropped three straight games and all came at TD Garden.
Those following the Celtics this season know that they’ve been terrible ATS at home (11-27), especially as favorites. Meanwhile, Mike Brown and his troops have gone 26-12 SU and 21-17 ATS outside of Cleveland this season.
Cleveland has won and covered two of the three meetings against Boston this year, which includes a 20-point (108-88) road victory on Feb. 25. This game was tight after three quarters but the Cavaliers outscored the Celtics 35-14 over the final 12 minutes for the blowout win. The ‘over’ cashed in this contest and is now 3-0 in all three battles between the he pair this season.
Looking at the big picture here, this game is much more important to the Celtics considering Cleveland only needs to two wins or two losses by the L.A. Lakers to clinch homecourt advantage throughout the entire playoffs.
Meanwhile, Boston trails Atlanta by one game for the third seed in the East with seven games left and the Hawks own the head-to-head tiebreaker. And to make matters tougher, the Celtics will have to play four of the last six games on the road after this contest. Fortunately, Doc Rivers and company have been better away from home this season.
San Antonio (46-29 SU, 39-36 ATS) at Los Angeles (55-21 SU, 33-40 ATS)
The Lakers need two wins to lock up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and with six games left, most would expect the Purple and Gold to accomplish that feat. Even though the top spot is in sight, Phil Jackson’s team looked sluggish in a recent road trip that watched the team go 2-3 both SU and ATS.
Los Angeles returned home Friday and notched an impressive 106-92 win against Utah as a 4 ½-point home favorite. The Lakers led by 17 after the first quarter and still coasted to an easy victory despite getting a less than stellar effort from All-Star Kobe Bryant (5-of-23, 25 points).
Including this afternoon game, the Lakers only face three other playoff teams to close the season. The Spurs haven’t clinched a playoff spot just yet, but they only need one win to do so. Greg Popovich’s team currently sits in the seventh position but they could wind up sixth or even eighth, which means they would face L.A. in the first round.
Los Angeles has defeated San Antonio two out of the first three meetings this season, which includes a 92-83 road victory on Mar. 24. The Lakers drilled 50 percent (10-of-20) of their 3-point attempts and the Spurs couldn’t buy a bucket (37.5%) from the field. Tim Duncan finished with just six points in the setback on 2-of-11 shooting.
San Antonio might not have the Lakers’ number but it has played well despite losing point guard Tony Parker (hand) to an injury in early March. The Spurs have gone 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS over this span. Four of those losses came on the road, all against Eastern Conference opponents too.
The Spurs are on a bit of a roll coming into this affair, winning and covering four of their last five, and three of the victories were against the Cavaliers, Celtics and Magic. While those wins were nice, a loss at New Jersey (84-90) last Monday was disappointing.
Los Angeles opened up as a six-point favorite over San Antonio and the number seems fair considering they’ve won seven straight against the Spurs at Staples Center. That streak includes a 101-89 win on Feb. 8 without the duties of Kobe Bryant or Andrew Bynum. The combined 190 points slid ‘under’ the closing total of 192 ½. Total players should make a note that the ‘under’ is on an 8-2 run in this series, which includes all three games this season. The ‘over/under’ for today’s contest is hovering between 194 and 195.
vegasinsider.com
NBA RoundUp For 4/4
By Dan Bebe
Cavaliers @ Celtics - This line is OFF. Well the Celtics ever wake up? The Cavs are simply the better team, but I'm not sure Boston doesn't feel like they have something to prove. Depending on the line, lean to Celtics. These teams have played quicker tempo games than people realize this year, playing to 3 straight overs - will this one go over, too? Boston's bad defense makes me think so. Lean Over.
Spurs @ Lakers - Lakers by 6 with a total of 194.5. Lakers dominated the Spurs on the road, stunk the rest of the trip, clobbered Utah, and now the Spurs get a rematch. Something tells me to be very careful in this one, as the Spurs were laying 2, now getting 6? Either that first line was screwball, or this one is. Lean to Spurs. These teams have played to 3 straight Unders this year, never breaking 190. Something doesn't add up here, either - lean to the Over.
Grizzlies @ Magic - Orlando by 10.5 with a total of 204. I don't like this side - I just don't know how much Memphis cares to play it out on the road. No lean on the side. The total of 204 is hugely reliant on how the Magic decide to play this one. I happen to think it's a bit of a coin-flip, but I lean just slightly to the Under. I'd be careful with anything in this game, though.
Rockets @ Pacers - This line is OFF. The Rockets off a win in Boston, the Pacers off an OT loss at home to the Heat. Two teams playing for nothing, I like Indiana to get it done at home -- lean to the Pacers. I like the Pacers recent defensive play, but the Rockets are all about scoring. This total is tough, so let's see where it comes out to know where the value's at.
Warriors @ Raptors - This line is OFF. Warriors always play hard, but Toronto needs these games, and Golden State has some games against wimpy competition coming up after this one. I'd avoid this game, or maybe offer the teeniest, tiniest lean to the Raptors. This total is going to be awfully high, but I have to think Toronto wants to slow it down, and the Warriors might not give all 100% - slight lean to the Under.
Nets @ Wizards - Washington by 3.5 with a total of 191. Washington has won all 3 games this year, but both these teams are basically done. The side is not a good value in this game, though I'd lean Washington, since these bad teams that have given up play horribly on the road. The totals of the last two meetings have been very, very low - this game might stay low, too. Lean to the Under.
Timberwolves @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 12 with a total of 208. This one, in my opinion, has about a 50/50 shot of being a 30-point blowout, or way too close for comfort. Letdown spot for Thunder? Maybe, but they're just rolling. No lean on the side. The Thunder are scoring like crazy, and I think this one might draw a ton of money on the over. Beware the simple choice. No lean on the total...yet.
Knicks @ Clippers - This line is OFF. Clippers coming home off a valiant effort in Denver. They've been bad on back-to-back, but the Knicks are on the last game of a road trip. Bad situationals all around. Tiny lean to Clippers. Clippers play no defense when tired, but also can't seem to score. Slight lean to the Under.
Trend Report - Sunday
By Ed Meyer
Cavaliers at Celtics – The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS (5.8 ppg) since January 30, 2006 on the road after a home win in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Celtics are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since January 07, 2009 when they lost as a favorite in each of their last two games. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since November 28, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.
Knicks at Clippers – The Knicks are 10-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since December 18, 2006 as a dog after a double digit loss in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since February 03, 1996 with no rest after a road loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since January 06, 2007 with no rest after a game on the road in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.
Spurs at Lakers – The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (6.1 ppg) since December 16, 1997 after a home win against the Magic. The Lakers are 8-0 ATS (6.0 ppg) since April 20, 2008 at home after a double digit win in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Lakers are 0-7-1 ATS (-13.3 ppg) since January 06, 2009 at home after a game at home in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
Grizzlies at Magic – The Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since January 31, 2005 on the road after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Magic are 9-0-2 ATS (7.2 ppg) since November 23, 2007 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Magic are 8-0-1 ATS (8.2 ppg) since March 14, 2007 at home after a double digit loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Rockets at Pacers – The Rockets are 6-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 02, 1999 on the road when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two staight games. The Pacers are 0-6-3 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since March 15, 2009 with at most one day of rest off a loss in which they led by 10+ points.
Warriors at Raptors – The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (4.0 ppg) since March 05, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Raptors are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since March 18, 1997 as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since January 11, 2009 at home when they shot at least 50% from the field in each of their last two games.
Timberwolves at Thunder – The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since April 09, 2005 when their next game is at home versus an opponent they lost to as a favorite in their previous same-season match-up. The Timberwolves are 0-9 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since November 10, 2007 as a road dog with no rest after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since March 18, 2009 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.
Nets at Wizards – The Nets are 8-0-1 ATS (7.2 ppg) since November 17, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since April 09, 2003 and when facing a team they beat in their first three match-ups of the season.
Tips and Trends
Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic
Grizzlies: Memphis is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but it would take a major miracle for this dream to come true. Despite everything, Memphis has had a very solid season in building for the future with their young nucleus. The Grizzlies are 39-36 SU and 38-35-2 ATS overall this season. The Grizzlies are still playing hard, as they want to finish with a winning record for the first time in 5 years. Memphis will have to play that much harder now that C Marc Gasol and G Ronnie Brewer sustained season ending injuries. Memphis is 16-20 SU and 20-16 ATS in road contests this season. The Grizzlies are 21-18 ATS as the listed underdog this season. However, Memphis is only 2-6 ATS this season as a road underdog between 9.5 to 12 PTS this season. The Grizzlies have fared well against the Eastern Conference, going 16-11 ATS this season. The Grizzlies have also played well after a double digit SU victory this season, going 11-4 ATS in this specific scenario. 3 Grizzlies currently average 18 PPG or more this season. F Zach Randolph is having a huge year, averaging team highs of 20.8 PPG and 11.7 RPG. F Rudy Gay and G O.J. Mayo combine for nearly 38 PPG this season, and are a huge reason why much will be expected from Memphis next season with their young nucleus.
Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - C Marc Gasol (shoulder) is out.
G Ronnie Brewer (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 102
Magic (-10.5, O/U 204): Orlando has all but locked up the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. The Magic lead the Hawks by 4.5 games with 6 games to play in the regular season. Orlando is currently 53-23 SU and 40-34-2 ATS overall this season. The Magic have won 6 of their past 8 games SU, but are coming off a SU loss to San Antonio. The Magic allowed the Spurs to score 112 PTS, the first time they had given up more than 97 PTS in their previous 5 games. The Magic are 30-7 SU and 19-16-2 ATS in home games this season. The Magic are 34-29 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 8-4 ATS as a home favorite between 10-12 PTS this season. The Magic are 2-1 ATS this season in games following a double digit loss this season. Orlando is 16-11 ATS in the 2nd half of the season entering tonight. Orlando is likely to have revenge on their minds tonight, as they lost earlier this year in Memphis 94-99 SU. Orlando averages 101.8 PPG this season, the 10th best in the NBA. C Dwight Howard is having an MVP type season, leading the Magic with 18.5 PPG and 13.3 RPG this season.
Magic is 19-7-1 ATS last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 112 (OVER - Total of the Day)