Sunday's NBA Preview
By Josh Jacobs
April 16 officially marks the end to the season and what a ride it’s been. But let’s not count our chickens before they hatch. A look at the standings reveals a traffic jam out West where every spot but the No. 1 seed is still up for grabs.
Even the No. 8 ride to the playoffs is still being contested, mathematically, as Dallas is just 5-5 in its last 10 and Phoenix has captured seven wins in its last 10 battles on the hardwood.
The Eastern Conference has teams from Atlanta to Chicago still attempting to secure as best a spot as possible. Both the Pistons and Bulls look to be hanging in tight for postseason play. Detroit has been dealing with its own drama, announcing that Allen Iverson will take the rest of the season off. Relations between the organization and the All-Star guard have become irreconcilable and the only option was to deactivate Iverson from the active roster.
And before we mull over Sunday’s NBA action, Vegasinsider.com senior writer, Chris David has highlighted a 10-3 run on the ‘over’ between two non-playoff teams who meet toward the end of the season. Click here to get the rest of the schedule that utilizes this late-season trend.
San Antonio at Cleveland – 1:00 p.m. EST on ABC
Clinching the division title but on a two-game slump, Cleveland will be playing out the remainder of the season for the No. 1 spot in the East. Up 3 ½-games on Boston as of Sunday afternoon, the Cavaliers are coming off a battered, 116-87 loss in Orlando. The recent ‘L’ marked the third against the spread defeat in a row. And maybe the most financially successful trend to become obliterated was a five-game streak on the ‘under’ (the last two games against Washington and Orlando have registered on the ‘over’).
So what are the usual trends and stats that we can uncover leading up to game time? How’s about Cleveland’s 24-13 ATS job at home this season (and as the home favorite), a 12-2 ATS success off a SU loss and a 19-12 ATS record off an ATS loss? In-fact when the Cavs are coming off a SU loss, the team has put a whipping on opponents by outscoring them by 12.4 PPG. The defense has also come up big, allowing just 89.2 PPG.
And of course there’s bad news. While Cleveland is an overall success story at home, the last eight played in its own backyard has trickled down to a financially unstable, 2-6 ATS record. Four of those last eight ATS losses came against teams over the .500 mark. And that brings us to the Cavaliers’ strong 10-5 ATS record at home against teams with a winning record (18-15 ATS overall versus winning teams).
The Spurs are involved in a battle of their own, holding down the No. 3 seed in the West by a full-game while looking ahead to the No. 2 seed possessed by Denver (out just a half-game). In regards to wagering, backers have been burnt recently as San Antonio is 3-7 ATS in its last 10. We can thank lines that have averaged 5.2 points in favor of the Spurs. Factor that in with a point margin averaging just 2.4 PPG in the same 10 games. What we’re seeing is the Spurs squeaking out wins by low margins while the five SU defeats have seen a point difference of, coincidently, minus-2.4 PPG.
San Antonio is a pedestrian, 4-4 ATS in its last eight road games, has succeeded at home versus winning teams with an 11-7 ATS stint and is just 5-6 ATS this season as the road underdog (allowing 98 PPG in this situation).
The Spurs have been erratic of late, scoring 111.5 PPG in their last four victories. But the down side of this has been an offensive unit floundering for 83.8 PPG in the last five losses while giving up 86.2 PPG on ‘D’.
Their last head-to-head meeting had Cleveland taking the contest, 97-86, covering the four-point spread. The ‘over’ hit money for the second straight time but has still been outnumbered as the ‘under’ is 6-3 in the last nine.
Phoenix at Dallas – 3:30 p.m. EST on ABC
Can the Suns put together a last minute run? Will Dallas find itself paying for faltering down the stretch? And will Utah become involved in this fight at the bottom half of Western Conference seeds?
Despite the prolonged battle, Phoenix is rewarding gamblers with an 8-3 ATS return in the last 11, an ‘under’ record at 6-2 in the last eight and are 4-1 ATS in its last five games off one-day of rest. The Suns are just 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five but have been scoring lights out at 115.8 PPG. Thus the reasoning behind Phoenix games going ‘over’ the total five times in the last six games. Of course giving up 115 PPG in the last 10 sure doesn’t hurt the ‘over’ trend.
The Suns are embarking on a four-game road trip for which they are a mere 14-22-1 ATS in games away from home this season (getting outscored by 2.1 PPG). And as opposed to a 26-13 SU record at home, Phoenix has struggled on the road in the last 12 games as a 2-10 SU and a 4-8 ATS record stands testament to.
But things don’t look much brighter for Phoenix at the counter. Coming off a victory against Sacramento on Friday (137-111), the Suns are just 17-24 (41.5 %) ATS off a SU win and an even worse, 12-20 ATS (37.5 %) off an ATS win (covering the Sacramento game as steep, 14 ½-point favorites).
For Dallas, the season has been a turbulent one at best. Minus a 2-3 SU fall in the most important part of the season (last five), the Mavericks are 15-21 ATS at home this season, are 22-24 ATS versus the Western Conference and are 12-13 ATS as underdogs.
Even with all of the hardships that come as part of betting on Dallas there’s also an upside. That’s a sizzling 18-8 performance on the ‘over’ in the last 26. But looking inside the numbers reveals that the ‘over’ run shouldn’t come as a shock. How can the ‘under’ be the play when your dealing with a team that's scoring lights out (118.7 PPG) and have a defense that hasn’t showed up all year, let alone giving up 114.7 PPG during this 26-game total run (that’s a combined score averaging 233.4 PPG)? A little surprising when you consider the Mavericks’ 17-16 record on the ‘under’ when totals have been installed at 200-plus points.
Some more warning about wagering on this Dallas team is a disappointing, 4-11 ATS report at home versus teams with a winning record, a 12-19 ATS slide when the point spread has been installed in favor of the Mavs at one to 7 ½-points and a 20-26 ATS fall when coming off one-day of rest. Dallas is coming off a 107-102 defeat at the hands of Memphis on Friday. The Mavs were installed as seven-point favorites.
Dallas is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four head-to-head meetings since March of last year. It was on Mar. 10 that Dallas last emerged as victor by beating out the Suns, 122-117 as six-point underdogs.
The Mavs’ forward Josh Howard missed last game with a wrist injury. Dallas is 14-12 SU and 11-15 ATS in Howard’s last 26 games off the court due to injury.
Bonus Coverage
-- Both Utah and New Orleans are coming off defeats. The Jazz seem to be a bit more unstable these days, losing three straight and dropping four of its last six. Even more disappointing is Utah’s six straight ATS losses and a 2-10 ATS slide in the last 12.
-- The Hornets haven’t been money makers themselves, going a damaging 13-20 ATS in the last 33. But for New Orleans, a 2 ½-game lead over Utah for the No. 6 seed is too close for comfort while out by a ½-game of the No. 5 seed (Houston’s current spot) is reason to play above the rim.
-- The Hornets will enter this contest with a 9-2 SU and 5-6 ATS record in their last 11 home stands. But the most impressive numbers are once again in the totals department where New Orleans is 10-2 on the ‘under’ in its last 12, 7-2 on the ‘under’ in the last nine versus the Western Conference and 20-8 on the ‘under’ in the last 28 home games.
-- Utah has been on its own totals run. A 5-1 record on the ‘over’ in the last six requires some more investigation while a 14-8 record on the ‘under’ goes against the grain in the last 22.
-- The Jazz have the edge in head-to-head combat. An 8-2 SU record in the last 10 versus New Orleans has been dominant, combined with a 6-1-1 ATS record in the last eight.
-- Bodog.com has opened the Hornets as 2 ½-point home favorites with a total set at 192. Game time is set to begin at 7:00 p.m. EST.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: NBA on ABC
By ASHTON GREWAL
San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5, 181)
Humble pie
The Cavaliers 13-game winning streak came to a grinding halt after back-to-back losses to the Washington Wizards and Orlando Magic.
Cleveland came out flat against the Magic a day after losing to Washington. The club trailed by as many as 41 to Orlando in the third quarter leaving LeBron James and a few other Cleveland starters watching from the bench for the entire forth quarter.
You can get too high on yourself at times and sometimes a losing streak can get you back to what you were doing to get on a winning streak,” James told the Cleveland Plain Dealer following the blowout loss. “We’re a veteran ball club and we can get through this but it is about going out there and executing.”
Shake, rattle and roll
Greg Popovich has long counted on Manu Ginobili’s offensive spark off the bench but it appears the San Antonio coach needs his Argentinean in the starting unit. Ginobili started his second straight game on Friday, marking only the 44th time in the last 147 games he’s gone out with the top group.
“I just think Manu coming off the bench has run its course,” Popovich told the San Antonio Express-News before Friday’s win over the Indiana Pacers. “It’s time for the three of them (Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Ginobili) to play together. “They’re our best three players. They’re going to make each other better on the court.”
The bench boss must be trying to figure out a way to ignite his slumping club. The Spurs had lost five of nine before the narrow win over the Pacers.
For the lineup shakeup to work, other role players will have to increase their productivity. As if on cue, Drew Gooden – San Antonio’s big man pickup at the trade deadline – had his best game in the Silver and Black pouring in 17 points off the pine.
“I’m getting comfortable,” the former Cavalier said. “When I’m out there, I’m going to produce, whether it’s five minutes, six minutes or 20 minutes.”
No rest for the wicked
Despite arriving in Orlando at 4 a.m. Friday morning and playing 17 games in 31 days, Cavs coach Mike Brown is not accepting any excuses for his team’s forgettable performance against the Magic.
Brown says he saw lapses in effort on defense even during the Cavs’ 13-game win streak.
“We have not been able to contain the dribble drive and it has hurt our overall defense,” the former San Antonio assistant coach said. “You’re going to lose some games, you are going to lose two or three or four in a row. [But] there’s a way that you lose games, and we should be with the way that we played.”
Brown didn’t have a chance to go over the defensive problems before Sunday’s game. The Cavs took Saturday off after playing both Thursday and Friday night.
Trends
The away team has covered in four of the last five games the Cavs and Spurs played.
San Antonio has some bad losses on its resume over the last few weeks but they haven’t lost by six or more points since the Lakers beat the Spurs at San Antonio by seven on March. 12.
Although the Cavs still have only lost one game at the Quicken Loans Arena this season, oddsmakers have made a killing off those backing LeBron and Co. at home recently. Cleveland is just 2-6 in its last eight home games against the spread.
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Does anyone want a playoff spot?
The Suns and Mavericks aren’t exactly setting the world on fire heading into the postseason. The Mavs are clinging to the final berth in the West while the Suns are chasing them down and are just three games back with five to go.
These two teams last met on March 10, a game the Suns lost even though Phoenix forward Grant Hill went as far as calling the game his team’s Super Bowl.
“This is our World Cup final,” Hill told the Arizona Republic yesterday about today’s rematch. “We feel like they’re seeing a different team than they saw the last time they played us.”
Of course, Hill and his mates will have to win on the road - something they’ve struggled to do all season (2-16 away from home against teams with a winning record).
You can pretty much write the Suns off if they don’t leave Dallas with the victory. A Mavs’ win brings their magic number to clinch a playoff spot down to two. If Phoenix can pull off the upset today, the pressure grows exponentially for Dallas. The club has four games left against teams with a record above .500.
“It’s going to come down to Sunday’s game,” Dirk Nowitzki told the Dallas Morning News. “If we lose this one, it’s only a two-game lead, and we’ve got a lot of tough teams coming up. We’ve got New Orleans twice. We’ve got Utah at home. We’ve got Houston.
No Joshing around
Dallas’ season has been disappointing and it can’t be solely attributed to one injury, but there’s no denying the effect Josh Howard has on this team. A healthy Howard gives Dallas a secondary scoring threat to Nowitzki and an aggressive slasher who gets to the charity strip early and often.
The former Demon Deacon didn’t play during Friday’s loss to Memphis and his status is uncertain for Sunday.
“I won’t be 100 percent,” Howard said. “I haven’t been 100 percent all year. I’ve just got to get ready.”
The small forward has missed 29 games his season and the Mavs are 16-13 straight in those matches (13-16 against the spread).
Trends
Phoenix has played over in five of its last six games while Dallas has been under the number in seven of its last 10.
The home team has won six of the last seven meetings between the two clubs.
SAN ANTONIO (49 - 26) at CLEVELAND (61 - 15)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 44-32 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 204-163 ATS (+24.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 221-176 ATS (+27.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 5-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX (42 - 34) at DALLAS (45 - 31)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK (29 - 46) at TORONTO (29 - 45)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
NEW YORK is 43-31 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW YORK is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games this season.
NEW YORK is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
NEW YORK is 30-20 ATS (+8.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
TORONTO is 29-42 ATS (-17.2 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 26-41 ATS (-19.1 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-5 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE (34 - 42) at DETROIT (36 - 39)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-4 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 7-3 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA (32 - 44) at OKLAHOMA CITY (21 - 54)
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-32 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND (48 - 27) at HOUSTON (48 - 28)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 41-25 ATS (+13.5 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PORTLAND is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (50 - 26) at MINNESOTA (22 - 54)
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 42-33 ATS (+5.7 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 104-131 ATS (-40.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 57-71 ATS (-21.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games this season.
MINNESOTA is 38-63 ATS (-31.3 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog this season.
MINNESOTA is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MINNESOTA is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MINNESOTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 9-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UTAH (46 - 30) at NEW ORLEANS (47 - 28)
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
UTAH is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 68-53 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 50-36 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 33-41 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 7-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA (39 - 35) at NEW JERSEY (31 - 44)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 5-5 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 7-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE (27 - 49) at SACRAMENTO (16 - 59)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 7-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 7-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS (18 - 57) at LA LAKERS (60 - 16)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 8-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 9-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO vs. CLEVELAND
San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
Cleveland is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
PHOENIX vs. DALLAS
Phoenix is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
CHARLOTTE vs. DETROIT
Charlotte is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Charlotte is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Detroit is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games at home
NEW YORK vs. TORONTO
New York is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Toronto
New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
DENVER vs. MINNESOTA
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
INDIANA vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Indiana is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Indiana is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
PORTLAND vs. HOUSTON
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
UTAH vs. NEW ORLEANS
Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Utah is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
PHILADELPHIA vs. NEW JERSEY
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey
Philadelphia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing New Jersey
New Jersey is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
GOLDEN STATE vs. SACRAMENTO
Golden State is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Golden State is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Sacramento is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
LA CLIPPERS vs. LA LAKERS
LA Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Clippers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
SAN ANTONIO at CLEVELAND
SAN ANTONIO: 4-13 ATS after 2 straight games committing 11 or less to's
CLEVELAND: 12-1 ATS off a road loss
PHOENIX at DALLAS
PHOENIX: 2-8 ATS revenging a home loss
DALLAS: 9-4 ATS off a loss as a favorite
NEW YORK at TORONTO
NEW YORK: 13-4 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days
TORONTO: 10-21 ATS after 2+ consecutive wins
CHARLOTTE at DETROIT
CHARLOTTE: 7-1 ATS after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less
DETROIT: 2-13 ATS on Sunday
INDIANA at OKLAHOMA CITY
INDIANA: 11-21 ATS after playing a home game
OKLAHOMA CITY: 18-9 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3
PORTLAND at HOUSTON
PORTLAND: 9-1 ATS after a win by 20 points or more
HOUSTON: 4-14 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog
DENVER at MINNESOTA
DENVER: 20-9 ATS off a home
MINNESOTA: 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5
UTAH at NEW ORLEANS
UTAH: 6-14 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days
NEW ORLEANS: 23-8 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5
PHILADELPHIA at NEW JERSEY
PHILADELPHIA: 4-13 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4
NEW JERSEY: 9-2 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7
GOLDEN STATE at SACRAMENTO
GOLDEN STATE: 3-10 ATS off a win as an underdog
SACRAMENTO: 10-3 ATS vs. division opponents
LA CLIPPERS at LA LAKERS
LA CLIPPERS: 6-13 ATS in April
LA LAKERS: 8-2 ATS after 6+ consecutive unders
Tips and Trends
San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers
Spurs: San Antonio is coming off a 126-121 loss at Indiana on Friday, which resulted in the most points the team has given up in a non-overtime game this season. The Spurs allowed the Pacers to score 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. “We’re trying to get some momentum going,” San Antonio All-Star Tim Duncan said. “We haven’t played well for the last 20 games. We’re in a heck of a race in the West. We’re just trying to hold onto our position and gain some confidence going into the playoffs.”
Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games.
The UNDER is 8-3 in San Antonio's last 11 games vs. Central Division.
Key Injuries - C Fabricio Oberto (heart) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 86
Cavs (-6.5, O/U 181): Cleveland will look to avoid losing three straight games for the first time in more than a year after suffering consecutive losses for just the second time this season. Defense has been a major problem for the Cavs in those losses to Washington and Orlando, as they have surrendered an average of 112.5 points on 52.1 percent shooting. “It’s not about how many games you lose, it’s about how you lose them,” Cleveland star LeBron James said. “The last two games weren’t how we play the game of basketball.”
Cavs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Southwest Division.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Cleveland's last 7 games overall.
Key Injuries - C Ben Wallace (shin) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95 (Side Play of the Day)
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Suns: Phoenix is making one last run at the playoffs and can pull within two games of the final spot in the Western Conference with a victory at Dallas. The Mavs are currently three games ahead in eighth place, but the Suns have won eight of their last 11 games following a season-high six-game losing streak. Phoenix is coming off a 139-111 rout of Sacramento on Friday, tying a season high with 14 shots made from beyond the 3-point arc.
Suns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
The OVER is 8-3 in Phoenix's last 11 road games.
Key Injuries - C Amare Stoudemire (eye) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 115 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)
Mavs(-4, O/U 230): Dallas has won 20 of its last 23 home games while Phoenix has dropped eight of nine on the road. That difference in play home and away could very well be the deciding factor here. The home team has won six of the last nine meetings, and the Mavs will be looking to bounce back from a 107-102 loss at Memphis on Friday. “Every game from this point is going to count for us,” Dallas center Erick Dampier said. “We don’t just want to get in the playoffs, we want to move up. The only way we are going to do that is if we win games.”
Mavs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The OVER is 7-2 in Dallas' last 9 home games.
Key Injuries - F Josh Howard (wrist) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 119
Sunday NBA Research
By Indiancowboy
San Antonio vs. Cleveland
This game is on ABC. Cleveland beat this team on the road by 11 last time out. So, this is a revenge game for the Spurs. Cle also comes off back to back losses to the Wizards and getting crushed by Orlando; so they are not in a good mood coming into this game. SA just beat Indiana by a few points. I know Cle is coming off back to back losses, but SA is solid in revenge games, not a bad idea to dabble on the spurs ML imo here if anything.
Phoenix vs. Dallas
Dallas beat this team by 5 on the road earlier this year, so a bit of a revenge game or Phoenix. Gentry has been a soldi coach for this team. Phoenix has won 7 of 10 and Dallas needs to be careful as Phoenix could very well win this game outright.
Charlotte vs. Detroit
There are several interesting facets about this game. For starters, Charlotte beat this team by a point earlier in the year on the road. Charlotte comes off a loss to Miami. Detroit too comes off a tough road trip losing at Cle, NJ and Philly. This team has won just 3 of 10 overall as well. I know Charlotte has covered 7 of 10 coming into this game, but Detroit has revenge and is back at home, lean on the 'Stones here.
New York vs. Toronto
207 points were scored when these two teams just met in NY. In essence, it is a home and home. That typically favors the team that just lost, but the Raptors are rolling right now winning 6 in a row and covering 6 in a row (still not technically eliminated from the playoffs either). More than a side as NY has revenge but Toronto is hot right now, I lean on the over here as I think NY shows up for about 110 and Toronto will do the same. The line is high, but I wouldn't be surprised if this goes over this time around as compared to the first time when it went well under in NY.
Portland vs. Houston
Houston comes off back to back losses on the road as they return home; Portland is rolling winning 7 of 10 SU and covering 8 of their last 10. This team is playing their best basketball as the season is coming to a close. The Rose Garden folks will be making a lot of money this year as the playoffs are back in Portland and that can be a credit to Nate McMillan. Houston beat this team by 4 earlier this year as the game went over, so Portland does have revenge. I actually lean on Portland despite Houston being at home, a bit on the ML as well.
Denver vs. Minnesota
Denver has played this team trice this year:
12/10/08 DEN 116 - MIN 105 (Minny +13 on the road)
11/29/08 MIN 97 - DEN 106 (Denver -5 on the road)
11/16/08 DEN 90 - MIN 84 (Minny +9.5 covered on the road)
As you can see, the road team has covered in each of the 3 games between these 2 teams this year. The last time these 2 teams met in Minny, only 203 points were scored. It is very tough to beat a team 3 times, nevertheless, 4 times in a year. But, Minny is banged up. Denver has covered 9 of their last 10 and covered 7 of their last 10 as well. Minnesota comes off an Outright win at Utah and beat New Jersey as well. I understand Denver is playing well, but it snot all that impossible to think Minnesota can show up well as Kevin Mc has them playing well.
Utah vs. New Orleans
Utah beat this team by 14 the last time they hooked up and beat this team by 26 prior to that. But, this team has lost 3 straight including to Minnesota at home to end their 16 game home winning streak, Utah has also lost 6 straight covers while NO returns home after a loss to GS on the road. NO has played in 8 of 10 unders as well. I believe the total is set at 192 for good reason as I would not be surprised if this game goes under. Remember, the last time these two met, the total was 143 (66-77).
Philadelphia vs. New Jersey
Philly is playing well; they have won/covered 3 in a row, revenge game for Philly too; Nets will have Vince for this game; lean on the Sixers here given their revenge and the better basketball they are playing, Nets did beat the Pistons recently at home, but that was coming off one of their worst outings in franchise history losing to the Bucks at home. Just staying away.
Golden State vs. Sacramento
GS has won back to back games despite being a bit banged up (this team has beat New Orleans and Sac in OT), therefore this is a revenge game for Sac and they should do well, Sac actually leads the series 2-1, with some revenge, and coming off some tough losses on the road, a lean on the Kings at home.
Lakers vs. Clippers
This game is of course in Staples, and a bit amusing given how high the line is. Clippers covered the 16 point line last time and prior to that, the Lakers had covered 6 straight in the series, this game is like shooting darts, I want no part of it.
NBA Injuries:
Dallas: Howard is Questionable.
New York: Hughes is Doubtful. Richardson is Questionable.
Charlotte: Bell is OUT, Iverson is OUT, Prince is Probable.
Indiana: Daniels is OUT.
Denver: Martin is Questionable.
Philadelphia: Miller is Probable. Young is OUT.
New Jersey: Carter is Probable.
Golden State: Ellis is Questionable, Maggette, Biedrins OUT, Martin is Probable.
Clippers: Camby, Thornton, Kaman are Questionable.
Lakers: Bynum is Doubtful (a good sign for the Lakers that he is even upgraded to "Doubtful".