Game of the day: Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
By STEVE MERRIL
Opening line
A small number of sportsbooks initially posted a line on Thursday night after the Celtics eliminated the Cavaliers and the initial line was Orlando -5.5 to -6. The line then rose to -6.5 as most other sportsbooks began to post numbers Friday morning.
The total opened at 189.5 and has dropped to 189 in some locations.
The Magic are -310 on the moneyline, while the Celtics are +260 to win Game 1 outright. This means the oddsmakers are predicting a 74 percent chance that Orlando wins straight up on Sunday.
The series price has Orlando as a -270 favorite with Boston as a +230 underdog to advance to the NBA Finals. Mathematically this gives Orlando a 71 percent chance of the winning this best-of-seven series.
Road dominance
The road team was a perfect 4-0 against the pointspread in this series this season. The road team also won three of those four meetings outright with the only loss coming by two points. It was a low-scoring series as the UNDER was 3-1 with the only OVER coming by a half point. The four meetings averaged fewer than 175 points per game.
Orlando held a 16-point lead in their 83-78 win at Boston on November 20, even though the team played without point guard Jameer Nelson. Boston won the rematch on Christmas, 86-77, as a 5.5-point underdog at Orlando without Paul Pierce. Orlando then overcame a 16-point deficit on January 28 for a 96-94 home win and the Magic also won the final meeting at Boston on February 7, 96-89, despite trailing by 11 points at halftime.
These teams also met in the second round of the 2009 playoffs and Orlando overcame a 3-2 deficit and won the final two games to capture the series as a +110 underdog. The Magic won the first game of that series, 95-90, at Boston as a 1.5-point underdog. Boston played the entire series without Kevin Garnett who was injured.
KG is on the floor
When these two teams met last year in the Eastern Conference semis, Kevin Garnett did not play because of a knee injury. Garnett’s presence is huge to the Celtics success, and without him on the floor, Orland held a huge matchup advantage.
However, the Magic still needed seven games to beat the Celtics in that series last season. Orlando has no such luck here as Garnett is back and 100 percent healthy. KG played in all four meetings this year and Orlando’s biggest win came by only seven points.
New lineups
Both teams will have significantly different starting lineups for this year’s playoff series.
Orlando has three differences with Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter and Matt Barnes playing alongside Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. Last year, the Magic had less scoring options with Rafer Alston, J.J. Redick and Hedo Turkoglu playing with Howard and Lewis.
Boston will also have Garnett on the court this time around as mentioned above. The Celtics will also be able to play much bigger in the paint with the combination of Garnett and Rasheed Wallace. Last year, Boston was forced to play Glen Davis in the middle because he’s all they had. While he held his own, the Celtics are in much better shape for this series.
The Rondo factor
The most important player for the Celtics in their series win over Cleveland was point guard Rajon Rondo, who was a one-man wrecking crew against the Cavaliers. Rondo averaged a double-double with 20.6 points and 11.8 assists per game. He also put-up a triple-double in Game 4 with 29 points, 13 assists and 18 rebounds.
In the four meetings against Orlando this season Rondo was held in check, averaging just 12.8 points, 7.8 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game. However, in the lone Boston win over the Magic, Rondo nearly posted a triple-double with 17 points, 8 assists, and 13 rebounds.
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Boston (8-3 SU and ATS) at Orlando (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS)
The red-hot Magic, aiming for their second straight trip to the NBA Finals, put their perfect playoff mark on the line when they open the Eastern Conference finals against the upset-minded Celtics at Amway Arena.
Orlando, which at 59-23 had the league’s second-best record behind Cleveland in the regular season, swept Charlotte in the first round, then pounded No. 3 seed Atlanta in four games in the second round. The Magic ripped the Hawks by 43, 14, 30 and 14 points again, and the 101-point margin of victory was the largest ever in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series. Orlando finished off the Hawks with Monday’s 98-84 road win as a six-point favorite. Vince Carter led the Game 4 attack with 22 points, and he was one of five Magic players to score in double figures.
Stan Van Gundy’s troops are riding a 14-game winning streak dating to the regular season (13-1 ATS), including 10 double-digit routs and an average victory margin of 16.8 ppg. Going back to Jan. 20, Orlando is 42-8 SU, with 28 of those wins being by double figures. Point guard Jameer Nelson (20.5 ppg) has led the Magic in scoring during the postseason, and Dwight Howard is averaging a double-double of 15.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs.
Boston took out Miami in five games in the first round, then pulled off the upset of No. 1 overall seed Cleveland in six games. The Celtics trailed 2-1 against the Cavaliers, then won the next three games, clinching the series with Thursday’s 94-85 home win as a 1½-point chalk night. Kevin Garnett paced the Game 6 victory with 22 points and 12 rebounds, and Rajon Rondo had 21 points and 12 assists.
Rondo leads a balanced Celtics squad in averaging 18 ppg in the playoffs, with Garnett (17.6), Ray Allen (17.4) and Paul Pierce (16.3) right behind. Rondo is also leading the league in assists in the postseason (11.1 per game).
Orlando took three of four meetings with Boston this season (2-2 ATS) and has won five of the last six overall (4-2 ATS). These teams haven’t faced off since Feb. 7, when the Magic notched a 96-89 road win as a three-point underdog. Orlando also knocked out the Celts in the second round last year, rallying from a 3-2 series deficit and finishing it off with a 101-82 blowout in Game 7 in Beantown as a 2½-point pup.
Going back to Game 7 last year, the visitor and underdog have cashed in five straight in this rivalry, and Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven visits to Amway Arena. The SU winner has cashed in all 11 of the Celts’ playoff contests this season and in 21 straight games overall for Doc Rivers’ team, and the SU winner is 15-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 16 outings.
Boston is 29-17 on the highway (24-21-1 ATS), going 3-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs, including blowout wins over Cleveland in Game 2 (104-86) and Game 5 (120-88). The C’s are averaging 98.5 ppg (47.8 percent shooting) away from Boston, while giving up 94.3 ppg (44.3 percent shooting).
Orlando is 38-7 at home (27-17-1 ATS) this season, including 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in the playoffs, outscoring visitors by more than 12 ppg on the year (105.3-92.9), while shooting 48.4 percent and allowing 43.4 percent shooting. The Magic have won 11 straight (8-2-1 ATS) and 17 of their last 18 (13-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
Along with their 8-3 ATS mark in the postseason (3-0 last three), the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 12-4-1 as a playoff pup and 16-7 when catching five to 10½ points. However, Boston has gone 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine Sunday starts and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 outings coming off a SU win.
The Magic are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 23-7-1 overall (13-1 last 14), 7-1-1 at home, 23-5-1 as a favorite, 7-0 as a playoff chalk, 12-3-1 against winning teams, 17-5 after a spread-cover and 20-6-1 following a SU win. Also, in last year’s six-game upset of the Cavaliers in the conference finals, Orlando went 5-1 ATS.
Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 5-2-1 overall, 12-5-2 at home, 20-5-1 on Sunday, 33-16-2 as a favorite and 7-2-1 as a playoff chalk. That said, in last year’s conference finals against Cleveland, the over hit in five of the six games.
Boston is on a 7-2 “under” roll in conference finals contests, but is otherwise on “over” stretches of 4-1 on the highway (all in the playoffs), 6-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 8-3 as an underdog and 22-10-1 after a two-day break.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight clashes overall, including three of four this season. Also, the under is on a 9-3 tear between these two in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
NBA Playoff RoundUp For 5/16
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Magic - Orlando by 6.5 with a total of 190. Back to the NBA, and it isn't easy when you take a few days off from a sport, but we'll do our best! For one, all four teams left in the Playoffs are exceedingly well-respected by the public, so the line value isn't going to be as strong in this round. The Celtics dispatched of the East-leading Cavaliers, and the Magic have swept their way through the first 2 rounds, so while I might argue the Magic have looked more impressive from day one of the Playoffs to today, both teams are garnering plenty of interest. So, where does that leave us? Well, it leaves us with a line that's likely to be pretty tight to the final score. And it leaves us, most likely, with more value to be had on totals in these series than in sides, though I suppose almost anything can happen. Based on a pure match-up standpoint, the Magic are in the better spot, as the Celtics were able to key in on Lebron James in their last series and slow down all the other guys, but with the Magic there's just too much to worry about. Jameer Nelson can score, Rashard Lewis can score, Vince Carter can score and create his own shot, and of course, Dwight Howard is a menace. My concern is the confidence in Boston, right now. They play extraordinarily well on the road, and maybe Boston's best asset is the fact that they don't seem to change how they shoot, home or road. Ray Allen has had a superb postseason, and Orlando is going to have to decide if they want to have Matt Barnes chasing Allen of screens, or move Barnes onto Rondo and let Nelson try to do the running. When all is said and done, the Magic have shown time and again how solid they are with a ton of rest, so I happen to think they cover this one by a bucket or two (it'll be close to the number). Very slight lean to the Magic on the side. On the total, these two teams have been some of the best defensively in the Playoffs, so far. I'm intrigued to see how they play this game. Will Orlando try to get out and run a little bit more against a better defensive team? Will Boston try to slow things to a crawl and maximize the importance of each possession? Orlando tends to shoot so well on long rest that I'm hard-pressed to believe they don't get to at least 95 points, and that makes me think this one might creep Over. As the series progresses, we'll see the intensity on defense ramp up and adjustments will be made, but here in game one the teams are going to be feeling each other out, and we'll get a couple of higher-scoring quarters.
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Celtics: Boston pulled off the shocker of this years playoffs, as they eliminated LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in 6 games. Boston might have ended a dynasty in the making with the ousting of Cleveland, but Boston has bigger things on their minds as they enter the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics have revenge on their minds, as they lost in last years Conference Finals to the Magic in 7 games. Boston will have to win on the Magic's home court if they are to advance to the Finals. PG Rajon Rondo has been the story of the NBA Playoffs, as he has been the breakout player in the NBA this post-season. Rondo is averaging 18 PPG, 12 APG, and 6 RPG in the playoffs this year. F Kevin Garnett is also playing well during the playoffs, thanks to a healthy body. Garnett is averaging 17.6 PPG and 8 RPG during the playoffs. In total, 4 different Celtics players are averaging at least 16 PPG during the playoffs this year. Boston is 58-35 SU and 41-50-2 ATS overall this year. The Celtics have a tremendous road record this season, thanks to their veteran experience. Boston is 29-17 SU and 24-21-1 ATS in road contests this season. Boston is 1-2 ATS as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS this year.
Celtics are 12-4-1 ATS last 17 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Key Injuries - C Kendrick Perkins (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 86
Magic (-6.5, O/U 189.5): Orlando is back in the Eastern Conference Finals, and they once again are expecting to make a return trip to the NBA Finals. Orlando has been absolutely dominant in the playoffs, winning all 8 games. Not only are they perfect in the post-season, they have also been winning in dominating fashion. The Magic have now won 14 consecutive games entering today, and they haven't lost back to back games in more than 4 months. Coach Van Gundy clearly has his team firing on all cylinders as they approach Game 1 this afternoon. The Magic are 67-23 SU and 53-35-2 ATS overall this season. The Magic are 38-7 SU and 26-17-2 ATS in home games this year. Orlando is 5-4 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season. Orlando is 14-4 ATS against Atlantic division opponents this year. 5 different Magic players average double figures in the playoffs this season, led by PG Jameer Nelson. Nelson is averaging 20.5 PPG, shooting nearly 52% from the field in the process. C Dwight Howard is averaging 15.4 PPG and more than 11 RPG this post-season. Howard will have more resistance when facing the Celtics compared to what's he faced so far in the playoffs.
Magic are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 7-1 in Magic last 8 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - F Matt Barnes (back) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 99 (Side of the Day)