Hawks-Bucks Preview
By Kevin Rogers
The lone Game 7 of the NBA's first round takes place with a familiar team, as the Hawks play their third straight Game 7 in the opening round, hosting the Bucks. Atlanta staved off elimination at the Bradley Center on Friday with an 83-69 victory, limiting Milwaukee to 11 third-quarter points.
Neither team shot well in Game 6, but the Hawks used a 19-2 run to open things up, while scoring their least amount of points in a victory since an 80-75 win at Dallas in early December. Jamal Crawford picked up the scoring slack with 24 points off the bench, which was ten more points scored than the entire Milwaukee bench. Joe Johnson bounced back with 22 points after fouling out late in Game 5, while Al Horford produced another double-double with 15 points and 15 rebounds.
The Bucks won't win many games with John Salmons and Brandon Jennings combining for 20 points on 6-28 shooting from the floor, including a dreadful 1-12 from three-point range in Game 6. Milwaukee has been limited to 92 points or less in four of the six games in this series, as the Bucks are averaging 89.6 ppg in three games at Philips Arena.
The Hawks have been pushed to the limit for the third consecutive season, but are hosting a Game 7 for the second straight year. Atlanta took top-seeded Boston to the edge back in 2008 as the home team won all seven games. The Celtics demolished the Hawks, 99-65 in the final contest, easily cashing as 14 ½-point 'chalk.' Last season, all seven games between the Hawks and Heat were decided by double-digits, as Atlanta eliminated Miami, 91-78 as 5 ½-point favorites.
The last time the Bucks faced a do-or-die game in the postseason was back in 2001, when Milwaukee actually played a pair of Game 7's. The Bucks, coached by George Karl, and led by the trio of Glenn Robinson, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell, ousted the Hornets in seven games in the second round to advance to the conference finals. Milwaukee went down to the finish with Philadelphia, but the Bucks were ousted by the Sixers in Game 7 by a 108-91 count.
Since the expansion of the first round series to the best-of-seven format in 2003, this is the 11th instance in which a series has been extended to a Game 7. The home team has been favored in the first ten contests, going 8-2 SU/ATS, with the two losses coming by Houston (to Utah in 2007) and Boston (to Indiana in 2005). The total hasn't been decisive either way, as the 'over' and 'under' have each hit five times. In nine instances, the home team was favored by 6 ½ points or less, as the Hawks are laying nine points on Sunday. The only club that has been favored by more than nine points was Boston in 2008 in the Celtics' drubbing of the Hawks.
Atlanta is a solid 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at home off a road victory this season, while Milwaukee owns a 6-1 ATS mark on the road coming off a home defeat. The Bucks have been a strong 'under' play in this situation, finishing 'under' the total six of seven times. The Hawks are 16-7 ATS at Philips Arena against a team off a loss, including a 20-3 SU mark.
Atlanta is currently listed as a 9 ½-point favorite at most spots with the total set at 185 ½. The total is the lowest between these two teams since April 25, 1999, when the total was listed at 174 (game went 'under' as Hawks won, 85-70).
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
Let's look ahead to the next opponent for one of these two teams, the well-rested Orlando Magic. Stan Van Gundy's club went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against the Bucks, while going 3-1 SU/ATS versus Atlanta. The Magic is 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven against the Hawks, with the lone loss coming on the Josh Smith buzzer-beating dunk on March 24. The last five against the Hawks have gone 'under' the total, as Orlando has held Atlanta to below 87 points in each of the previous six meetings. The Bucks have dropped nine straight meetings in Orlando, while going 2-7 ATS at Amway Arena in this span.
The Western Conference semifinals get going following the Hawks and Bucks as the Lakers host the Jazz at Staples Center (3:30 PM EST). L.A. and Utah each won its respective series in six games, as these two clubs meet for the third straight postseason. The Lakers are a perfect 14-0 SU the last 14 home meetings with the Jazz, while going 10-3-1 ATS. In 13 of those wins, Los Angeles has topped the 100-point mark, meaning Utah needs to step up its defense if the Jazz wants to march on the conference finals.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta (3-3 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (3-3 SU and ATS)
The third-seeded Hawks, who have already avoided an early exit once, look to finish off the upset-minded Bucks at Philips Arena in the only first-round series that has stretched to seven games.
After posting double-digit home wins in the first two games of this series, then dumping the next three to stand on the brink of elimination, Atlanta shut down Milwaukee in Game 5 Friday night, rolling to an 83-69 victory as a 1½-point road favorite. The Hawks held the Bucks under 20 points in each of the first three quarters, including a meager 11 in the third frame, and they finished with a 51-42 rebounding edge, more than making up for their 38.3 percent shooting (31 of 81). Jamal Crawford (24 points) and Joe Johnson (22 points) led the way for Atlanta, and Al Horford piled up 15 points and 15 boards.
Sixth-seeded Milwaukee shot a lowly 32.9 percent in the loss (25 of 76), going just 7-for-26 from three-point range (26.9 percent) in the process. About the only thing the Bucks did effectively was shoot free throws, going 12-for-12, but Atlanta got to the charity stripe 10 more times and hit 16. Carlos Delfino had 20 points, but no other Buck scored more than 12.
Atlanta is a superb 36-8 SU (27-17 ATS) at home this year, averaging 103.9 ppg on 47.2 percent shooting, while allowing 95.6 ppg on 45.3 percent shooting. However, the Hawks were up by nine points with four minutes left in Game 5 at Philips Arena before allowing a 14-0 Milwaukee run en route to a 91-87 upset loss.
With its Game 5 win in Atlanta, Milwaukee is now 30-14 (29-14-1 ATS) on the road, getting outscored by less than half a point per game (95.3-95.0) and outshot 44.9 percent to 43.2 percent.
Atlanta’s Game 6 win halted a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Milwaukee in this series, and the SU winner has cashed in all six games in this series and seven in a row overall dating to the regular season. In fact, the SU winner is 17-3-1 ATS in the last 20 clashes in this rivalry, and the favorite is 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Also, the SU winner is a scorching 23-0-1 ATS in Atlanta’s last 24 playoff games, and the winner is 12-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 13 contests overall.
The Bucks – who went an NBA-leading 52-28-2 ATS in the regular season – are on pointspread rolls of 36-14-2 overall, a stout 20-5-1 on the highway, 13-3 as a road pup, 21-8 after a SU loss, 8-2 following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 9-3 catching five to 10½ points. However, they are also in ATS ruts of 3-9-1 as a playoff ‘dog and 4-9-1 in first-round playoff games.
Likewise, the Hawks are on a handful of ATS upswings, including 7-3 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 coming off a SU win, 4-0 after a SU win of more than 10 points, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 9-3 on Sunday, 10-4 against winning teams and 5-2 as a playoff chalk.
Friday’s outing fell miles short of the 189-point posted price, but the total has still gone high in 11 of the last 14 meetings overall in this rivalry – including four of six in this series – and the over is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Philips Arena.
In addition, the Bucks are several “over” sprees, including 15-6-2 in first-round playoff games, 10-3 against winning teams and 4-1 after a non-cover, though the under for Milwaukee is on surges of 5-2 on the road, 4-1 with the Bucks a road pup and 7-3 on Sunday. Finally, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 7-3 against winning teams and 16-5 after a SU win, but the under is 13-5 in the Hawks’ last 18 Sunday outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Utah (4-2 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)
After a hard-fought opening-round victory, the defending NBA champion Lakers begin their Western Conference best-of-7 semifinal series against the fifth-seeded Jazz inside the Staples Center.
Utah dispatched of the fourth-seeded Nuggets in six games, wrapping things up with a 112-104 home win on Friday, cashing as a 6½-point favorite. The Jazz continued their hot playoff shooting Friday, hitting 52.2 percent of their field goals, led by Carlos Boozer who shot 10-for-14 from the field for 22 points to go with 20 rebounds. Wesley Matthews chipped in 23 points for Utah and reserve Paul Millsap added 21.
The Lakers put away the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Friday, winning 95-94 when Pau Gasol put back a Kobe Bryant miss with 0.5 seconds left, getting Los Angeles the win and cover as one-point underdogs. Bryant finished with 32 points and Gasol added nine points and 18 rebounds as the Lakers held the Thunder to just 36.5 percent shooting.
The Jazz and Lakers met in the first round of the postseason last year with Los Angeles prevailing in five games (2-3 ATS) en route to the NBA title. Additionally, the Lakers won a six-game second-round playoff series from Utah two years ago. This year, L.A. took three of the four regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), including two easy wins and covers in Hollywood, capped by a 106-92 victory exactly a month ago as a 4½-point favorite.
Los Angeles is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings overall (15-8-1 ATS) and it has won 14 consecutive meetings at the Staples Center (11-3 ATS). In fact, the home team has cashed in 18 of the last 27 head-to-head clashes.
Utah is 22-22 (24-18-1 ATS) on the road this season and just 5-6 (SU and ATS) in its last 11 on the highway (1-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs). Los Angeles has gone 37-7 inside Staples Center, but just 18-24-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by more than eight ppg (103.5-94.8).
The Jazz are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as road ‘dogs, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on the road against teams with winning home records and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 as ‘dogs of five to 10½ points, but they are on ATS surges of 35-16-3 overall (4-1 last five) and 4-0 with just one day off. The Lakers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 conference semifinal games, but otherwise they carry several negative pointspread trends, including 8-17-1 as a favorite, 4-10-1 at home, 5-16-2 after a day off, 1-7 after a straight-up win and 1-10 after a spread-cover.
Utah has stayed below the posted total in five of seven after a spread-cover, seven straight against winning teams and five of six against Pacific Division foes, but it is on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 35-16-1 as a road ‘dog, 8-3 as a playoff pup, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 on Sunday and 4-1 after one day off. It’s been all “unders” for Los Angeles lately, including 7-2 at home (all as a chalk), 19-9 as a favorite, 37-18-2 on Sunday, 24-9 against Northwest Division teams, 7-0 against winning teams and 4-0 in conference semifinal games.
Finally, this rivalry has seen the “under” cash seven straight times – including the final three playoff contests last year – but the over has been the play in 12 of the last 17 in California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA Game of the Day - Jazz/Lakers
By Steve Merril
Opening Line
The Lakers opened as a 7 -point favorite in Game 1 and the early money has come in on the underdog Jazz and moved the pointspread down as Los Angeles is now a 7-point home favorite. Heavy money moved the Over/Under line down from 202 to 199 . This is no surprise as the Under is 7-0 in the past seven meetings.
The oddsmakers have installed the #1 seeded Lakers as a -420 favorite to win this series, while the #5 seeded Jazz are +340.
Deja Vu
These same teams met in Round 1 last year in the 2009 NBA Playoffs and the Lakers easily won that series 4-1. The Lakers entered as the #1 seed and were a heavy -2300 favorite over the #8 seed Jazz who were +1600 to win the series. Los Angeles won 113-100 in Game 1 and held a 22-point lead. The Lakers then won 119-109 in Game 2, but failed to cover as an 11-point favorite, despite leading by 20 points in that game.
Utah did win Game 3 at home, 88-86, but Los Angeles actually blew a 13-point lead in that game. The Lakers then closed out the series by winning Games 4 & 5 by 108-94 and 107-96 margins. Overall, Los Angeles was just 2-3 ATS in the series with 3 of the 5 games staying Under the total.
Current Meetings
These teams met four times during the regular season and the Lakers were 3-1 straight-up and against the spread. All four games stayed Under the total. The first head-to-head meeting was on December 9th and saw the Lakers win easily 101-77 at home, although they only led by 2 points entering the fourth quarter. Andrei Kirilenko missed the first game and he also missed the quick rematch in Utah on December.12th in which Utah won 102-94 and led by 17 points.
The Lakers were without both Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum in the third meeting on February 10th, but they still won easily 96-81 at Utah as a 5 -point underdog. The Lakers led by 21 points and never trailed in the entire game. Los Angeles also won the final meeting on April 2nd, 106-92, without Andrew Bynum. The Lakers held a 19-point lead and were facing a Utah squad that was once again playing without Andrei Kirilenko.
Center of Attention
Key concerns in this game are the injuries to both teams' starting centers. Utah lost Mehmet Okur for the season after he ruptured his right Achilles tendon in the first round against Denver. Okur was replaced by Kyrylo Fesenko who really doesn ' t give them much except for size. But he may be less of a liability now that the Lakers have their own injury issue to deal with.
Los Angeles center Andrew Bynum suffered an injury in the first half of the Lakers win on Friday night. He underwent a MRI on Saturday that revealed a small meniscus tear in his right knee which leaves him Bynum questionable for Game 1. "There's some issues," Lakers coach Phil Jackson said. "He's hoping to play if he's symptomatic tomorrow."
BYOB
Carlos Boozer is a big part of Utah ' s success. Boozer is a mismatch for a lot of teams in the league, but the Lakers are not one of them. During the regular season, Boozer averaged 19.5 points per game on 56.2% shooting from the field. But in the four games against the Lakers this season, Boozer averaged just 13.5 points on 42% shooting.
He scored 12 points or less in three of those four games, and two of those games ended in 24 and 15 point Utah losses. The Lakers always focus their defense on Boozer as they pack the paint and force him to make jump shots. And it works because Boozer is usually playing on tired legs after defending Pau Gasol all game long.
Tips and Trends
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Jazz: Utah pulled a series upset of the Denver Nuggets, as they won 4-2 to advance to the 2nd Round. Utah wasn't expected to do much when Center Mehmet Okur went out for the rest of the season with an injury. Utah has struggled both in the playoffs and the regular season with the Lakers. This year alone, the Jazz lost 3 of the 4 regular season games with the Lakers. 3 of those losses were by double digits. PG Deron Williams will look to continue his spectacular play in the playoffs, as he has made history as the only player to ever have 20 PTS and 10 assists in as many consecutive playoff games as he has. Williams is exactly the type of speedy guard that gives the Lakers fits. Williams is averaging 25.8 PPG and 10 APG so far in the playoffs. F Carlos Boozer is averaging 22.5 PPG and 13 RPG in the postseason, combining with Williams to be a very potent combination. Utah is 57-31 SU and 53-32-3 ATS overall this season. The Jazz are an even 22-22 SU on the road this season. The Jazz have lost by double figures in their past 6 games played at the Staples center.
Jazz are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-0 last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Key Injuries - PG Deron Williams (elbow) is probable.
F Andrei Kirilenko (calf) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 102
Lakers (-7, O/U 200): Los Angeles might have won the battle with Oklahoma City, but they lost the war. Center Andrew Bynum had an MRI on his knee, and his status is unknown. Forward Ron Artest is still dealing with lingering health issues, as is star Guard Kobe Bryant. The good news is the fact the Lakers are playing the Utah Jazz in the 2nd Round, the team they have eliminated each of the past two seasons. The Lakers are very familiar with the Jazz style of play, and they will look to continue their playoff demolition of them. F Pau Gasol is averaging 18 PPG and 12 RPG in the postseason, and has been arguably the Lakers best player during the postseason. Bryant is going to have to take on a bigger role scoring this series, if he is physically able to. Bryant is only averaging 23 PPG in the playoffs, far below his season average. The Lakers are 61-27 SU and 36-49-3 ATS overall this year. Los Angeles is a powerful 37-7 SU at home this season, but they've struggled of late from an ATS angle. The Lakers are only 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Lakers are 1-7 ATS last 8 games following a SU win.
Under is 7-0 last 7 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 106 (OVER - Total of the Day)