Game of the day: Lakers at Suns
By: Steve Merril
Current odds
The oddsmakers have made a substantial adjustment on both the side and total for Game 3. The Lakers were 6.5 and 7.5-point favorites at home in both Games 1 and 2, but now the Suns are 2.5-point home favorites.
This 10-point adjustment is largely due to the fact that teams down 0-2 usually give a strong performance at home in Game 3.
The first two games soared over the total in Los Angeles with 235 and 236 points scored. The oddsmakers have been forced to adjust the over/under line higher and it now stands at 219, which is 8.5 points higher than the 210.5 point total posted for Game 1.
Historically, NBA teams that hold a 2-0 lead go on to win a best-of-7 series over 93 percent of the time. This has been reflected in the adjusted series price as the Lakers are now a -1200 favorite, compared to just a -340 when the series began.
Home court advantage
The home team has dominated the six head-to-head meetings this season, going 5-1 straight up and against the spread, winning by an average margin of 13.5 points per game. Going back further, the home team has won eight of the past nine meetings SU and has covered seven of the past eight games.
Phoenix is 16-4-1 ATS in its past 21 home games, including a current 11-1-1 ATS run. The Suns are also on a 33-13-1 ATS run in their past 47 games overall, despite going 0-2 ATS at Los Angeles this past week.
The money quarter
Phoenix has seen a huge reversal in the fourth quarter from its last series against the San Antonio Spurs. Over their four-game sweep, the Suns outscored San Antonio by 25 points (132-107) in the final frame. Phoenix averaged 33 points over the final 12 minutes in those four games, but those numbers are way down against the Lakers.
In the first two games in Los Angeles, the Suns have scored a total of only 50 points in the fourth quarter. The Lakers have scored 69 points in the money quarter and that 19-point advantage is one of the reasons why they are up 2-0 in the series.
Bench points
The second unit of Los Angeles has played a huge role so far in this series. The Lakers’ bench has scored 80 points in the two games with Lamar Odom’s 36 points leading the way. Odom, along with guards Shannon Brom and Jordan Farmer, aren't letting the Suns make up any ground when Phil Jackson takes out his starters.
Phoenix is getting next to nothing from their bench. Channing Frye, whose long distance shooting can be difference maker, and Leandro Barbosa have been downright awful.
Bigger is better
There was no secret going into this series that Los Angeles held a huge edge inside the paint. Phoenix is getting torched inside With Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom controlling the block. The trio has scored 103 points in the first two games and that should continue unless Amare Stoudemire and Robin Lopez man-up in the paint.
The Lakers have outscored the Suns by 28 points (108-80) in the paint. Those numbers are no fluke either because the Lakers scored a total of 196 points in the paint in the four regular season meetings, besting the Suns by 34 points in that department.
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (10-2, 8-4 ATS) at Phoenix (8-4 SU and ATS)
The Suns, perhaps the hottest team in the NBA in the two-month stretch preceding the Western Conference finals, now find themselves in a must-win game as they return to U.S. Airways Arena for Game 3 of this best-of-7 series against the defending champion Lakers.
Phoenix was on a 22-4 SU roll (19-6-1 ATS) heading into this series, but allowed the Lakers to break 120 points in each of the first two games, including Wednesday’s 124-112 loss as a 7½-point underdog. The Suns tumbled despite five players scoring in double figures, led by Jason Richardson (27 points) and Grant Hill (23), and despite Steve Nash doubling up with 11 points and 15 assists.
Los Angeles again shot lights out from the field in Game 2, hitting 57.7 percent (45 of 78) while the Suns shot 49.4 percent, this after outshooting the Suns 58 percent to 49.4 percent in Game 1. Pau Gasol had 29 points and nine rebounds in Wednesday’s win, and Kobe Bryant followed up a 40-point Game 1 effort with 21 points and 13 assists as six Lakers reached double-digit scoring.
Los Angeles is 5-1 SU and ATS in its six meetings with Phoenix this season. The Lakers have won nine of the last 11 SU in this rivalry and is 11-4 ATS in the last 15. The home team has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings, and the chalk is on a 5-1 ATS swing. Still, L.A. has gone 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to the desert. These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 while going 4-3 ATS, and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS).
The SU winner is 13-1 ATS in the last 13 Lakers-Suns clashes (6-0 this year). Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 12 of Phoenix’s playoff games and in 21 in a row overall for the Suns, and the SU winner is 10-2 ATS in Los Angeles’ dozen playoff games this year.
Los Angeles is 26-20 (20-25-1 ATS) on the road this season (3-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), winning SU and ATS in its last three on the highway, first to close out Oklahoma City in Game 6 in the first round, then taking Games 3 and 4 of a sweep against Utah. Phoenix is 36-10 (29-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys, winning its last four SU and ATS after dropping the first-round opener against Portland.
The Lakers sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-1 overall (5-0 last five), 6-1 following a SU win (5-0 last five), 5-1 in conference finals starts (4-0 last four), 7-2 as a playoff pup and 17-8 after three or more days rest. That said, they’re just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 starts after a spread-cover and 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday contests.
The Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last seven conference finals outings (0-4 last four), 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a SU loss of more than 10 points and 6-14-1 ATS after a break of three days or more. On the flip side, they still own a bevy of positive ATS streaks, including 33-13-1 overall, 16-4-1 at home, 7-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 as a playoff chalk and 40-19-2 as a home favorite.
Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 8-1-1 overall (5-0-1 last six), 4-1 as a visitor, 6-2 as a chalk, 5-0-1 after a SU win and 4-1 in the conference finals going back to last season. Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-0 after a three or more days off, 8-0 after a road trip of seven or more days, 6-2 after a non-cover and 15-7 as a playoff chalk, but the under is 9-4 in the Suns’ last 13 games following a double-digit defeat.
Finally, the total sailed over the posted price in Games 1 and 2, and the over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these Pacific Division rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA RoundUp For 5/23
By Dan Bebe
Lakers @ Suns - Phoenix by 2.5 with a total of 219. I think one of the most interesting notes on this game is the fact that this line came out at 2.5, and 2.5 is precisely where it sits. This tells us that books are getting fairly balanced action despite having this line up for almost half a week, and despite the Lakers, who blew out Phoenix in each of the first two games, catching points on the road, things aren't changing. That is a strong line indicator in favor of the Suns. On top of that, this is the first time the Suns have been the favorite in a LA/Phoenix game this season, despite having played 6 times already. We can even dial things back a tad farther, and say that the Lakers have been the favorite in at least the last 8 meetings, and I'm sure if I visited another stats page, I'd learn that number is even higher (anyone that wants to save me 10 minutes, feel free to post how long it's been since Phoenix was the favorite). That is another very strong number for Phoenix. Digging deep, there are very few things pointing to LA in this game besides the fact that the Suns haven't played any defense so far. It is indeed disconcerting that the Suns have been giving up 120+ points to the Lakers in each game in LA, though I have to believe that number comes down just because of the change in venue. The Lakers are 17-for-33 from long range in the series so far, and that number is insane for any team, let alone a Lakers club that shot around 36% from distance for the season. They won't make 55% from distance in game three, and while the Lakers will continue to have a heck of an advantage on the interior, I think the Suns crowd pushes them to greater heights. Lean to Phoenix. On the total, the rapidly increasing number is starting to make that Under look pretty delectable. Is it time to unload yet? Maybe, maybe not, but I definitely lean Under.
Game 3, Lakers at Suns
By Brian Edwards
The old adage is that a series doesn’t even start until a home team loses. In essence, the premise is true, but you certainly don’t get that feel in this year’s Western Conference finals.
Not after Los Angeles (67-27 straight up, 41-50-3 against the spread) dominated Phoenix in Games 1 and 2 at Staples Center in Tinseltown. The Lakers made quick work of the Suns in the lid-lifter, cruising to a 128-107 win as six-point home favorites. The 235 combined points soared ‘over’ the 210 ½-point total.
Lamar Odom had a monster game off the bench, scoring 19 points and pulling down 19 rebounds. Kobe Bryant exploded for a game-high 40 points to go with five assists and five boards. Bryant was an efficient 13-of-23 from the field and made 11-of-12 at the free-throw line. Pau Gasol chipped in with 21 points.
In the losing effort, Amare Stoudemire scored a team-high 23 points, while Steve Nash had 13 points and 13 assists.
Phoenix (62-32 SU, 56-37-1 ATS) was much more competitive in Game 2. As a matter of fact, the game was tied going into the final stanza. But the fourth quarter was all Lakers, as they outscored the Suns by 12 en route to a 124-112 win as 7 1/2-point home ‘chalk.’
Gasol was the catalyst with a game-high 29 points, nine rebounds and five assists. Gasol told the Associated Press afterwards, "We're shooting the ball very well, moving the ball really, really well. Our bench is playing at a high level, and we're all stepping up."
Jason Richardson and Grant Hill kept the Suns in the mix during Game 2, scoring 27 points and 23, respectively. Nash finished with 11 points and 15 assists.
The ‘over’ has easily cashed in the first two games, but VI’s Chris David warns bettors of why that might change in Game 3. David said, “The oddsmakers have been way off on the totals in this series and they’ve made another adjustment for Game 3, fittingly. After watching a combined 235 and 236 points posted in the first two games, you wonder if the move from 210 in Game 1 to 219 for tonight’s battle is a tad too much? Considering how hot the Lakers’ offense has been over the last six games and in this series, it’s hard to argue an ‘under’ play here.”
Alvin Gentry’s team has been dynamite at home, especially for our purposes. The Suns are on a 16-4-1 ATS run in their last 21 home assignments. For the season, they are 29-16-1 versus the number.
Due to that home success, most books are listing Phoenix as a 2 ½-point home favorite for Game 3. Gamblers can back the Lakers to win outright for a plus-125 payout (risk $100 to win $125).
If the Suns are going to make this a lengthy series, they obviously have to win Game 3. They might do just that, but I certainly don’t think they have any shot of rallying to win this series.
Neither does David, who said, “The Suns have no shot of winning four of five against the Lakers unless both Kobe and Gasol go down with injuries and even then, L.A. still might be competitive because the Suns’ defense gives up too many easy baskets.”
Tip-off is slated for Sunday night at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The home team is 7-1 versus the number in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these teams.
--The 'over' is on an 8-1-1 run in the Lakers' last 10 games.
--Welcome to a boiling hot seat, Stan Van Gundy. Orlando’s pathetic effort in Saturday night’s blowout loss at Boston in Game 3 of the East finals certainly puts SVG and GM Otis Smith’s jobs in jeopardy.
--Is there any doubt at all that Rajon Rondo has been the best player in these playoffs so far?
--According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Hawks have been in steady talks with former Mavs head coach Avery Johnson since Monday. With that said, they are also in interested in Dallas assistant Dwayne Casey. The Nets have reportedly been in touch with Johnson as well.
--The AJC’s Michael Cunningham discusses the Hawks options involving Joe Johnson, who is about to be an unrestricted free agent. If Johnson bolts, the salary-cap impact isn’t that generous to Atlanta, making a sign-and-trade the best option of GM Rick Sund opts not to offer Johnson a ‘max contract.’ As I’ve said before, I don’t think inking Johnson to a max contract would be a good idea for Atlanta, at least not in the long run, because I thnk the Hawks have hit their ceiling with him as the premier player and leader.
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Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
Lakers: Los Angeles is feeling very good about themselves, as it seems that any style of basketball they play, they end up victorious. The Lakers are hitting their stride, playing their very best basketball of the season at the most opportune time. Coach Jackson is dominant when up multiple games in a 7 game series, exactly the situation the Lakers are in right now. Los Angeles has a dynamic height advantage against the Suns, and they are exploiting that matchup time and time again. F Pau Gasol is averaging 25 PPG in this series with the Suns, while Lamar Odom is doing his own thing. Odom has had consecutive double doubles against the Suns, dominating Phoenix off the bench. This scoring has freed up G Kobe Bryant to do his own scoring, and he's already had a 40 point game against the Suns in this series. The Lakers appear to be the team to beat as they attempt repeat as NBA Champions. The Lakers are 67-27 SU and 41-50-3 ATS overall this season. Los Angeles is 26-20 SU and 21-24-1 ATS in road contests this year. The Lakers are 7-8 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 3-7 ATS as a road underdog of 3 PTS or fewer. The Lakers are 6-2 ATS this season when playing with 3 or more days of rest.
Lakers are 5-0 ATS last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Over is 6-0-1 last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 106
Suns (-2.5, O/U 219.5): Phoenix faces a tall order, as they are down 2-0 in their best of 7 Western Conference Finals series with the Lakers. The Suns are attempting to become the 1st team in 47 tries to win a series after starting 2 games down to a Phil Jackson coached team. Phoenix must play better defense if they are going to win any games, much less a series against the Lakers. The Suns simply don't match up well with the Lakers, as they don't have the size in the paint to combat the Lakers. Phoenix has allowed Los Angeles to score 124 and 128 PTS so far in this series. 5 different Suns players are averaging double figures in PTS this postseason, led by G Jason Richardson. Richardson is averaging 21.8 PPG this postseason, shooting better than 50% from both the field and the 3 point line. Richardson and C Channing Frye need to be better against the Lakers, especially when playing at home. Frye is only 1 of 13 from behind the arc in this series. Phoenix is 62-32 SU and 56-37-1 ATS overall this season. The Suns are 36-10 SU and 28-16-2 ATS in home games this year. Phoenix is only 4-7 ATS in games following a double digit loss this year. The Suns are 31-14 ATS after allowing 105 PTS or more in their previous game.
Suns are 16-4-1 ATS last 21 home games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - PG Leandro Barbosa (head) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 117 (Side of the Day)