Heat-Hawks, Game 7
By Brian Edwards
While Boston and Chicago have waged a seven-game series for the ages, Atlanta and Miami have also taken their first-round series the distance. However, that’s where the similarities end.
In the first six games between the Heat and Hawks, each and every game has been decided by double-digit margins. Not once have we seen a lead change beyond the first quarter. On Friday night in Game 6 at AmericanAirlines Arena, it was Miami’s turn to deal out woodshed treatment.
And the Heat held nothing back. They jumped out to a 17-point lead in the first quarter and the Hawks never got closer than nine after that. When the bludgeoning was done with, Miami had a 98-72 victory as a 4 ½-point favorite to force Sunday afternoon’s Game 7 at Philips Arena.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Atlanta (50-38 straight up, 46-41-2 against the spread) as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 179. As of early Saturday afternoon, most books had the Hawks as 5 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 181. Gamblers can back the Heat on the money line for a plus-200 return (risk $100 to win $200).
There are a number of key injury situations for bettors to stay on top of before placing wagers on this contest. Mike Woodson’s team is hoping to have the services of Al Horford and/or Marvin Williams.
Horford dressed out in Game 6 but did not touch the court. He suffered a sprained ankle in Game 5 and is listed as “questionable.” The University of Florida product has missed 15 games this year with the Hawks going 7-8 both SU and ATS without him. Horford averaged 11.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game during the regular season.
Williams (13.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG) sustained a sprained wrist in Game 2 of this series and missed the next three contests. In Game 6, Williams surprisingly made a brief appearance off the bench. He played five minutes during a first-half stint and missed his lone attempt from the field.
Miami (46-42 SU, 43-43-2 ATS) has been without Jamario Moon since he left Game 3 with a sports hernia. Moon is out for the rest of the season. Jermaine O’Neal, who had been enjoying an outstanding series with a 16.0 PPG average, could not go Friday after sustaining a concussion at some point in Game 5. O’Neal is “questionable” for Sunday.
During Friday’s run-away-and-hide triumph, Dwyane Wade showed no signs of the back spasms that were ‘allegedly’ so bothersome to him in Games 3, 4 and 5. Wade lit up the Hawks for 41 points, getting to the charity stripe 17 times compared to 18 total free-throw attempts for Atlanta. Wade hit 16 FT’s and was 11-of-23 from the field before leaving the game with five-plus minutes remaining.
Michael Beasley was sensational off the bench, producing a double-double with 22 points and 15 rebounds. The box score won’t indicate it, but Joel Anthony was a force at both ends of the court in place of O’Neal. Anthony finished with six points (3-of-3 from the floor), eight rebounds, three blocked shots and a slew of on-ball screens to free up Wade for open looks.
Outside of Mike Bibby, who kept his team in the game with 20 first-half points, nobody played well for Atlanta. Joe Johnson’s nightmare series continued, as he had only 13 points and once again finished with more turnovers (three) than assists (two).
During the regular season, Johnson averaged 21.4 points per game but he’s scored more than 16 points in this series just once, a 25-point effort in Game 5. He has an abysmal 18/20 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
Atlanta destroyed Miami at Philips by scores of 90-64 and 106-91 in Games 1 and 5, respectively. In Game 2, the Heat spanked the home team 108-93 as a five-point road underdog.
These teams have now met 10 times this season with the ‘under’ cashing at an 8-2 clip. Both ‘overs’ appeared at Atlanta in Games 2 and 5 of this series. The Hawks have won six of the 10 overall encounters, four of five at Philips.
The ‘over’ is 47-40-1 overall for Miami, 23-21 in its road assignments. The Heat are 16-28 SU and 21-22-1 ATS on the road this season.
The ‘under’ is 46-40-2 overall for Atlanta, 24-20 in its home games. The Hawks play their best basketball at Philips, compiling a 33-11 SU record and 24-19-1 ATS mark on their home floor.
ABC will have the telecast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Atlanta hasn’t won a playoff series since 1999 when it beat Detroit in the days of the best-of-five format during the first round. The Hawks were then swept by the Knicks in the second round.
--The Hawks saw their first-round series against Boston go to seven games last year. They were on the road, however, and took a 99-65 pounding as 14 ½-point underdogs. Johnson was the only Atlanta starter to score in double figures with 16 points, but he made just 5-of-17 attempts from the field.
--If bettors are spending much time breaking down who is “fresh” or might be “spent,” take note of Udonis Haslem playing only 11 minutes in Game 6. Haslem was in foul trouble all night and gave way to Beasley and Anthony.
--Prior to Game 6, Atlanta’s Josh Smith apologized to Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra for his ill-advised showboat dunk that missed in the final stanza of Game 5.
--The bad blood in this series continued to fester in Game 6. Smith and Jamaal Magloire exchanged words early in the fourth quarter, while Wade and Mo Evans also shared pleasantries on a couple of occasions.
vegasinsider.com.
What bettors need to know: NBA Playoffs on ABC
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks (-5.5, 181)
Head to head
Including their playoff series, the Heat are 4-6 straight up against the Hawks and 5-5 ATS. Eight of the 10 games have been decided by at least 10 points, including every postseason meeting.
Get up, stay up
This series hasn't exactly been filled with drama. The average margin of victory has been 20.2 points and in each game the winner has taken the lead for good no later than the second quarter. In 72 fourth-quarter minutes, the margin has been double digits for all but 9:18.
In the first six games of the series, there have been a grand total of 12 lead changes and two ties, with none in the second half. Contrast that with Game 6 of the Boston-Chicago series, which had 21 lead changes and 17 ties.
What does this mean?
Coaches Mike Woodson of Atlanta and Erik Spoelstra of Miami have seen games get away from them very quickly, partially due to the limited postseason experience on both sides. The Hawks have four rotation players with only last year's first-round series to draw upon, while the Heat have two rookies and a playoff rookie among their rotation.
Look for Woodson and Spoelstra to "overcoach" or micromanage Game 7 in its early stages, calling quick timeouts and not allowing their players to play through cold starts or foul trouble.
Say it ain't so, Joe
With the exception of Game 5, Hawks guard Joe Johnson has been unable to get going in this postseason. The All-Star is averaging 15.5 points, nearly six points below his season average. He is shooting 39 percent from the field, 63 percent from the line and has more turnovers (20) than assists (18).
A year ago, Johnson was one of just a handful of Hawks who had previous playoff experience and provided veteran leadership for a young squad. He averaged 20 points and 4.0 assists while making 16-of-36 3-pointers in the first round vs. Boston, a tougher defensive team.
The Hawks need that leadership to resurface Sunday, especially with the injuries to Marvin Williams (wrist) and Al Horford (right ankle) and some of the immaturity shown by Josh Smith. In Game 6, Williams played just five minutes, Horford sat out and Smith committed several dumb fouls and was whistled for a technical.
Atlanta has not won a best-of-seven series since 1970. To end that drought, Johnson has to play like an All-Star.
Trends
The Hawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games coming off scoring 75 points or less
The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games
The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games coming off a double-digit SU win
The total has been under in eight of the last 10 meetings
The rebounds winner has been the SU winner in eight of the last 10 meetings
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets (-6, 206.5)
Head to head
The Nuggets swept the four-game season series, going 3-1 ATS. The teams came in under the total in their last three meetings. Mavericks forward Josh Howard was a virtual non-factor, playing a combined 41 minutes and shooting 5-of-20 in the first two games and sitting out the last two altogether.
Putting the D’ back in Denver
One year ago, the Nuggets were swept out of the opening round by the Los Angeles Lakers, allowing nearly 115 points per game with a porous defense that relied on Marcus Camby to cover for all its mistakes.
That squad seems like ancient history. In the first round against the New Orleans Hornets, the Nuggets allowed an average of 84.2 points without Camby, who was traded to the Clippers in a cost-cutting move.
Having healthy big men Kenyon Martin and Nene certainly has helped, as has the swap of Allen Iverson for the physical, defensively sound Chauncey Billups. But the biggest difference has been the contribution of forward Chris "Birdman" Andersen, who averaged 2.5 blocks per game despite playing just over 20 minutes per contest.
The Nuggets were very physical with the Hornets and likely will adopt a similar approach with the Mavericks, who have been accused of being a bit soft at times. It will be interesting to see how Dallas responds.
Calling Dr. Howard
For all of their dominance of the season series, the Nuggets really haven't seen this edition of the Mavericks, who featured a focused and frisky Josh Howard in their five-game elimination of the San Antonio Spurs.
Howard was the barometer for Dallas against San Antonio, averaging 21.7 points and 6.0 rebounds in its four wins and managing just seven and three in its lone loss. Overall, he shot nearly 50 percent from the field.
The Mavericks make a conscious effort to go to Howard early in the game and get him going. His slashing ability and mid-range game will make him a much tougher cover for Carmelo Anthony than Peja Stojakovic, who is more content to stand on the perimeter and fire away.
Most important, the Mavs are 7-2 both straight up and ATS in their last nine games with Howard.
Trends
The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the postseason
The Nuggets have not reached the total in their last three games
The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games
The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in the postseason
The Mavericks have won their last six games in which they did not reach the total
NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Sunday, May 3
Miami at Atlanta (1 p.m. EDT). Miami beat Atlanta 98-72 on Friday night to force a seventh game in the Eastern Conference first-round series.
STARS
— Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley, Heat. Wade scored 41 points, Beasley busted out of a slump with 22 points and 15 rebounds, and Miami to beat Atlanta 98-72 in Game 6 and even their first-round series.
STATUS
The NBA decided not to take any additional action against Boston guard Rajon Rondo for his skirmish with Chicago’s Kirk Hinrich in Game 6 on Thursday night. The league said Friday the first-quarter play would stand as a flagrant foul against Rondo. It could have upgraded the foul or even suspended him for Game 7.
SIXERS’ NO-SHOWS
Andre Miller and Theo Ratliff missed the Philadelphia 76ers’ final team meeting on Friday. Miller’s agent blamed the point guard’s absence on miscommunication between Miller and the team. Both veterans are unrestricted free agents and the no-shows at the team meeting further soured the mood of a franchise that was embarrassed a night earlier in a Game 6 season-ending playoff loss at home against the Orlando Magic.
SPEAKING
“No pressure on us. We’re the underdogs in this series.”—Miami star Dwyane Wade after scoring 41 points in the Heat’s 98-72 Game 6 victory Friday night. Game 7 is Sunday in Atlanta.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
The Heat dominated the first half and went on to defeat the Hawks 98-72 last time out and forced a Game 7 in their first-round playoff series. The Heat covered their 5-point spread, while the combined score went UNDER the posted total of 182.5.
Dwyane Wade led the way with a game-high 41 points, and Michael Beasley added 22 in the win.
Mike Bibby scored 20 points and grabbed seven rebounds for the Hawks.
Team records:
Miami: 43-39 SU, 41-40-1 ATS
Atlanta: 47-35 SU, 43-37-2 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
After playing Atlanta are 6-4
After a win are 3-7
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
After playing Miami are 3-7
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
Miami is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Dirk Nowitzki went for 31 points and nine rebounds to lead the Mavericks past the Spurs 106-93 to win their series 4-1 on Tuesday night.
Dallas cashed as 5-point road underdogs as the game played over the 188.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
The Nuggets clinched their first-round playoff series with a convincing 107-86 win over the Hornets last time out. The Nuggets covered the 10.5-point spread, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 197.5.
Carmelo Anthony shot 13-for-25 from the field with 34 points, six rebounds and three assists.
Team records:
Dallas: 50-32 SU, 40-42 ATS
Denver: 54-28 SU, 45-36-1 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Denver are 8-2
After playing San Antonio are 7-3
After a win are 7-3
Denver most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
Before playing Dallas are 5-5
After playing New Orleans are 8-2
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Dallas's last 20 games when playing Denver
Dallas is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
Next up:
Dallas at Denver, Tuesday, May 5
MIAMI (46 - 42) at ATLANTA (50 - 38)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 11-7 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 9-9 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
13 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (54 - 33) at DENVER (58 - 29)
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 50-36 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 216-172 ATS (+26.8 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 115-84 ATS (+22.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 8-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 7-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games
DALLAS vs. DENVER
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Miami at Atlanta
Miami:
12-25 ATS off home win
13-5 Under off DD win
Atlanta:
18-3 Under revenging DD loss
13-4 ATS at home revenging DD loss
Dallas at Denver
Dallas:
11-24 ATS off road win
17-6 Under playing with double revenge
Denver:
23-11 ATS off home win
17-7 ATS playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
NBA Playoff Research
By Indiancowboy
Denver vs. Dallas
I would love to take Denver here; after all, they have taken care of the likes of San Antonio on the road and they deserve to be here as they are meshing well. Having said that, how does one go against the Nuggets who are playing so dynamic at home? With Chauncey's leadership and Melo's playmaking ability they are in fine shape. Note, that last time these two teams played Denver went into Dallas and won by a bucket. In fact, Denver has beat this team all 4 times this year:
Denver 103, Dallas 101 (+3.5) (Under 205)
Denver 99, Dallas 97 (Dallas +6) (Under 206)
Dallas 88, Denver 98 (Denver +2.5) (Under 211)
Denver 108, Dallas 105 (Denver Pk) (Over 207)
Thus, you have a series that Denver has won SU all 4 times this yaer. Three out of four and the last 3 in this series have gone under the posted total. Also, note the Underdog has won the last three contests between these two teams. A lean on the dog with the points here - remember, Denver took the first game in Dallas and there is no reason why they don't put out an exceeded effort tonight (granted, they might not win SU). A lean on Dallas and a lean on the Under as well for this contest.
Tips and Trends
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Heat: The Heat's average margin of victory in this series is a staggering 23 points. "There's nothing better in the playoffs than playing a Game 7," Dwyane Wade said. "I'm one of those guys that live for these moments to try to do whatever I can to help my team win. Sometimes you fall short of the glory, but sometimes you come through. There's no sweeter feeling than coming through." Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said, "If you don't have something right now - whatever it is a bruise, a deep contusion, a busted lip - if you don't have that right now, you're not sacrificing your body to (do) what's absolutely necessary to win this series."
The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
The Under is 9-2 in Miami's last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - C Jermaine O'Neal (head) is QUESTIONABLE.
F Jamario Moon (abdominal) is OUT for the season.
PROJECTED SCORE: 90
Hawks (-5.5, O/U 180.5): The Hawks have won their three games by an average of 17 points. Three games have been decided by at least 26; none has been closer than 10 at the end. There have been a grand total of 12 lead changes the entire series, none of them occurring after the opening period. Heck, these teams managed to go two straight games without the lead switching hands even one time. "It definitely is crazy," Hawks forward Josh Smith said. "It seems like when one of us makes a run, the other team isn't able to make a push to come back. I don't know what it is. Just confidence, I guess. But I know we've got to get off to a good start."
The Over is 7-2 in the Hawks' last 9 games as a favorite.
The Hawks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - C Al Horford (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE.
F Marvin Williams (wrist) is QUESTIONABLE
PROJECTED SCORE: 95 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)