Game of the day: Suns at Spurs
By STEVE MERRIL
Opening line
Despite trailing 3-0 in this playoff series, the early money quickly came in on San Antonio when an opening line was posted Saturday morning.
Oddsmakers initially made the Spurs a 2.5-point home favorite and bettors quickly pushed the line up to -3.5. The early money also came in on the over as the opening total went from 206.5 up to 207.
When the series began, the Suns were installed as a small -135 favorite, but now that Phoenix has established a 3-0 series lead, the Suns are an overwhelming -2500 favorite to advance.
This means Phoenix has a 95 percent chance of winning this series and San Antonio has only a 5 percent chance of winning the next four games in a row. This is not surprising as NBA teams down 0-3 in a best-of-7 playoff series have never advanced in 88 past series.
Series dominance
The Suns are known for their full-throttle, up-tempo style, while the Spurs strength has always been their half-court defensive play. This contrast of styles has favored San Antonio in the past but Phoenix has begun to exert their dominance this season.
The Suns are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the six head-to-head meetings this season and 5-1 SU in those games with their only loss coming by three points as a 4-point road underdog on February 28th. Phoenix has won the other five meetings by an average of 10.8 points per game and they have held 20-, 17-, 14-, 11- and 16-point leads in those five meetings.
Phoenix’s success has stemmed from the fact they have been able to dictate the tempo and force a fast-paced game. The over is 5-1 in the six meetings with the only under coming by half a point on Friday night with 206 points when the total was 206.5. The other five meetings have averaged 216.2 points per game with each of the five games totaling at least 212 points or more.
Raining 3’s
Phoenix has been deadly from beyond the arc in this series. The Suns have shot an incredible 47.7 percent (31-65) from 3-point land in the three games so far. The team’s best performance came in Game 3 when they hit 57.7 percent (15-26) from 3-point range. Goran Dragic was a perfect 5-for-5 from beyond the arc while Jason Richardson hit five of seven.
San Antonio has also knocked down their share of triples. After shooting a dismal 4-19 (21.1 percent) from 3-point land in Game 1, the Spurs have connected on a respectable 44.1 percent (15-34) from beyond the arc in Games 2 and 3.
Both teams have combined to hit a whopping 50 3’s over the first three games of this series.
Nash is cash
Steve Nash has played out of his mind so far in this series.
Nash has scored 68 points on 56.5 percent (26-46) shooting from the field. He has a 22-14 assist-to-turnover ratio over the three games, but the fact that he had just six assists in Games 2 and 3 prove that he’s looking to score more against the Spurs.
Nash is not a consistent big-time scorer these days; he’s more of a true point guard who sets his teammates up with wide-open shots instead of taking the shots himself. But when he’s as aggressive as he’s been in this series, the Suns are one tough team to beat.
Shoulder the load
San Antonio Spurs guard Tony Parker was scheduled to have an MRI on his shoulder Saturday but ended up not having the exam and was cleared by team doctors to play in Game 4.
Parker fell hard on his shoulder in the second quarter of Friday's loss. He continued to play but made just 5-of-17 shots.
Parker was seen holding his shoulder in the final period and reportedly had X-rays after the game. Until Friday, Parker had been coming off the bench since returning from a broken hand in April. He is averaging 16.8 points and 5.4 assists in the postseason.
Finish the game
San Antonio’s defense has done a decent job against the Suns for most of the first 36 minutes of each game. However, the Spurs have fallen asleep in the money quarter in all three of the games so far.
Phoenix has scored 39, 32 and 26 points in the fourth quarters of this series. That’s a total of 97 points scored on San Antonio’s defense when the game is on the line.
Numbers like that were never allowed by the defensive-minded Spurs teams of old. San Antonio’s offense has scored just 77 points in the fourth quarter, and when your opponent holds a 20-point advantage in the final 12 minutes, it’s almost impossible to win.
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have a pair of games to wager on Sunday in the NBA Playoffs. First, Boston will try to get even with Cleveland and avenge a blowout loss in Friday’s Game 3. In San Antonio, the Spurs will try to avoid getting swept by Phoenix. To the games we go…
**Cavs at Celtics**
Most books are listing Cleveland (67-23 straight up, 42-47-1 against the spread) as a one-point favorite with a total of 196 ½.
Mike Brown’s team responded to his fiery comments following the Game 2 loss, bouncing back with authority in a 124-95 win to take a 2-1 series lead. LeBron James was the catalyst, playing like the MVP that he is. He scored 38 points to go with eight rebounds, seven assists, two blocked shots, one steal and only one turnover. The Cavs jumped out to a 36-17 advantage at the end of the first quarter and the Celtics were never a threat from there.
All five Cleveland starters scored in double figures in Game 3. Antawn Jamison led that group with 20 points and 12 rebounds, while Delonte West came off the bench to score 14 points.
Boston (55-35 SU, 38-50-2 ATS) got a team-high 19 points out of Kevin Garnett, who made 8-of-11 shots from the field. Also, Rajon Rondo finished with 18 points and eight assists. But Paul Pierce was a non-factor, scoring just 11 points on 4-of-15 shooting from the floor.
Boston has been horrible at home all year, compiling a 15-29-1 spread record.
The ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these Eastern Conference rivals.
The ‘over’ is 46-43-1 overall for the Celtics, 24-20-1 in their home games.
The ‘over’ is 44-43-3 overall for the Cavs, 22-20-2 in their road assignments.
Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
**Suns at Spurs**
Phoenix (61-30 SU, 55-35-1 ATS) took a commanding 3-0 series lead by virtue of Friday’s 110-96 win as a seven-point underdog. Goran Dragic stole the show for the winners in Game 3, exploding for 23 of his 26 points in the fourth quarter. Jason Richardson added 21 points, while Steve Nash finished with 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
San Antonio (54-37 SU, 47-42-2 ATS) has lost all three games of this series by eight points or more. In Friday’s losing effort, Manu Ginobli scored a game-high 27 points, while Tim Duncan added 15 points and 13 rebounds.
Gregg Popovich’s club faces a daunting task in terms of coming back to win the series, especially when considering that no team has ever rallied from a 0-3 deficit in NBA history. With that said, a Game 4 win is by no means a reach. The Spurs have been money makers at home this year, going 26-17-2 versus the number.
The ‘under’ is 48-40-3 overall for the Suns, 26-17-2 in their road outings.
San Antonio has seen the ‘under’ cash at a 7-2-1 clip in its last 10 games. For the season, the ‘under’ is 49-39-3 overall for the Spurs. However, they have seen the ‘over’ go 23-21-1 in their home games.
The ‘over’ had hit in five consecutive head-to-head meetings between these squads until Game 3 stayed ‘under’ the 207-point tally.
TNT will have the telecast at 8:05 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com.
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at Boston (5-3 SU and ATS)
The Cavaliers, coming off a blowout Game 3 victory, look to take full control of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics at TD Garden in Game 4.
LeBron James racked up 21 of his 38 points in the first quarter Friday night, helping top-seeded Cleveland plow to a 124-95 rout as a one-point road underdog and regain home-court advantage as fast as the Cavs lost it in Game 2. James, who also had eight assists, hit 14 of 22 from the field, and Mike Brown’s troops shot a scorching 59.5 percent (44 of 74). Antawn Jamison added a double-double of 20 points and 12 rebounds.
In suffering its worst home playoff loss in franchise history, Boston shot 42.7 percent (35 of 82), going just 4-for-17 from 3-point range (23.5 percent), and no Celtic reached 20 points, with Kevin Garnett scoring 19 and Rajon Rondo 18. The Celts hit a decent 21 of 29 from the free-throw line (72.4 percent), but they sent the Cavs to the charity stripe a whopping 34 times, and Cleveland knocked down 31 (91.2 percent). In addition, Doc Rivers’ squad got drilled on the boards, 45-30.
Cleveland is 28-16 SU (24-19-1 ATS) on the road this year (2-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 102 ppg on 47.7 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.5 percent). Boston is 27-18 SU but just 15-29-1 ATS in Beantown, where it averages 99.9 ppg (48.7 percent shooting) and gives up 96.4 (45.9 percent).
Cleveland has owned this rivalry lately at the betting window, going 20-8-2 ATS in the last 30 meetings (4-3 SU and ATS this season), including 8-3 ATS in the last 11 contests at the Garden. The Cavs, who prior to Friday hadn’t won a playoff game in Boston since 1992, are on an 8-2 ATS run in postseason games against the Celtics (7-1 ATS last eight), having covered in six of seven during a second-round meeting two seasons ago.
Also, the SU winner has cashed in 10 straight series clashes in this rivalry, including all seven this season.
The Cavaliers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 second-round playoff games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 starts against Atlantic Division foes, but they remain on pointspread slides of 6-12 overall, 0-4 after a day off, 0-4 after a spread-cover and 2-8 following a SU win.
The Celtics are on pointspread purges of 12-27-1 at the Garden, 5-15 in second-round playoff contests, 1-6-1 on Sunday and 7-18-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, though they are also on a 6-1 ATS roll following either a SU or an ATS setback.
The under is 18-7 in Cleveland’s last 25 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 13-3 against Atlantic Division foe, and 6-1 on the highway. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 12-5 overall, 7-2 at the Garden, 8-2 against the Central Division and 35-16 following a SU loss.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total hurdled the 193½-point posted price of in Game 3, giving the over a 6-1 mark in this season’s seven meetings. Furthermore, the over is 6-0 in the last six Cavs-Celts contests at TD Garden (4-0 last four).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix (7-2 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)
The streaking Suns look to finally slay their playoff nemesis when they go for the four-game sweep of the reeling Spurs when this best-of-7 series resumes at the AT&T Center.
Phoenix overcame an 18-point first-half deficit, then got 23 points fourth-quarter points from little-known Goran Dragic in a 110-96 rout Friday night as a seven-point road pup. Dragic went 5-for-5 from beyond the arc and finished with 26 points, while Jason Richardson added 21, and Steve Nash had 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists. The Suns shot 53.2 percent (42 of 79), including a torrid 57.7 percent from long range (15 of 26).
Manu Ginobili had 27 points to lead San Antonio, but none of his teammates even approached 20, with Tim Duncan coming closest at 15 points, to go with 13 rebounds. The Spurs shot a respectable 45 percent (36 of 80), including 8 of 16 from three-point range, and outrebounded Phoenix 43-37 (11-6 on the offensive end). But San Antonio’s struggles from the free-throw line continued as it hit just 57.1 percent of its foul shots (16 of 28) after going 15-for-22 (68.2 percent) in Game 2.
Phoenix is 25-20 SU (26-19 ATS) on the highway this season (3-1 SU and ATS in the postseason), averaging 107.2 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowing 106.2 ppg (45.6 percent). With Friday’s defeat, San Antonio fell to 32-13 SU (26-17-2 ATS) at the AT&T Center this year (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS in the playoffs), putting up 104.5 ppg (49.0 percent shooting) and yielding 96.8 ppg (46 percent shooting).
Phoenix has cashed in all six meetings this season in this rivalry (5-1 SU), though Friday’s affair was only the second time the teams played in San Antonio. Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS on its last nine trips to the Alamo, the favorite and the home team are both 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes, and the SU winner is 16-1-1 ATS in the last 18 Spurs-Suns matchups.
These foes have met four times in the postseason since 2003, with San Antonio winning all four series. However, no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-7 NBA playoff series in 90 opportunities.
The Suns are on a boatload of spread-covering sprees, including 32-11-1 overall, 15-6 on the road (4-1 last five), 10-3 as a road pup, 19-5 against the Southwest Division, 18-6-1 after a spread-cover and 35-15-1 after a day off.
The Spurs are on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall, 2-7-1 on Sunday and 1-3-1 after a day off, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 21-12-1 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 12-4-1 as a favorite and 21-7-3 as a playoff chalk.
In this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last eight meetings overall, including five of six this season, though Friday’s game fell just a hair short of the 206½-point price. In addition, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 11-5 against the Southwest Division (5-2 last seven) and 12-5 in second-round playoff games, but the Suns are also on “under” rolls of 5-2 overall, 7-0-1 on the road and 4-1 after a day off.
Additionally, San Antonio is on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 after a day off, 8-3 as a playoff favorite and 8-2-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA Playoff RoundUp For 5/9
By Dan Bebe
Cavaliers @ Celtics - Cleveland by 1.5 with a total of 195. This is a pretty interesting line, given Cleveland pummeled the Celtics in game three. I think the one real debate about this game is going to be the "Cavs woke up" versus "Cavs brought 120% effort once, now we get 80%" schools of thought. And really, the only way to get a good idea of what to expect is precedent. So, for that, we turn back to the opening round games against Chicago. Lebron was quoted as saying that they felt they really needed game four against the Bulls, and sure enough, the Cavs came back in game five and actually struggled to close out Chicago. Now, here in Round Two, the Cavs clearly decided they needed game three, but did that take too much out of the tank? Boston is down 2-1, and they realize that another loss basically means they're done, so I think we get a nice bounceback effort from the Celts in this one. Plus, the Cavaliers shot 60% in the last one, and a repeat performance there seems somewhat unlikely, as a good deal of those makes were on jumpers. I lean Celtics to tie things up. On the total of 195, we're coming off a game that went way, way over the mark, but the Cavaliers played an absolutely perfect game. We haven't really seen a game where both teams play a "normal" contest, though I guess game one was about as close as we've come. That one ended at 194. That makes me think this total is pretty accurate, though coming off a monster over-game, I would prefer to look at the Under first.
Suns @ Spurs - San Antonio by 2.5 with a total of 206.5. This line is quite a bit lower than in game three, and I wonder if folks aren't all but done with the Spurs in this series. Of the 3 games that these teams have played, the Suns have outplayed San Antonio for, probably, about 9 of the 12 quarters. They have had more hustle, made their shots, defended better, and all-around schooled the veteran Spurs. Honestly, I'm impressed. Do the Suns wrap things up on the road, I wonder? The Suns bench played such a crucial role in game three, and I just wonder how they come back in game four. Is Tony Parker more hurt than he's letting on after taking a big spill early in game three? Is this a spot where someone on the Spurs comes out and puts on a Dwyane Wade-like performance to keep the season alive? Somehow, I just think the Suns are too much for the Spurs, and a sweep may be in order. The Spurs are a veteran team, which makes me think they're actually more likely to roll over, here. They know they're not coming back; they know they're overmatched; they know they blew chances to win both game two and game three, and the Suns aren't going to drop 4 in a row unless someone gets badly hurt. The resolve of a team is tough to handicap, but I happen to think the Spurs are cooked, and I lean Suns. The total could go both ways, really. If we think the Spurs aren't going to go full tilt, does that mean they let Phoenix score 110, or does that mean they fail to score - or both? This number is pretty high, considering it took a crazy 4th quarter shooting performance by the Suns to get to 206 in the last game, and this one comes out higher? I guess oddsmakers feel the defense gets a little lax, but I'm not sold. No lean on the total, yet.
NBA News and Notes
Orlando won five of six games against the Hawks this year, winning by 17-32-18 in regular season, before pounding Atlanta 114-71 in Game 1, then 112-98 in Game 2; Magic are 6-0 in playoffs, with only one of the wins by less than eight points. Hawks' starting Gs were 6-18 in Game 3; other than Crawford (7-18), their bench took only three shots. Orlando shot 56% from floor last game, a game they trailed 57-49 at the half.
Lakers won five of six vs Utah this season; both series games went over the total. Lakers shot 53% in first game, as Bryant was 12-19 from floor, and Gasol blocked five shots; Bynum had 17 points, 14 rebounds last game; Jazz didn't have enough size with Okur/Kirilenko out, but they're getting Kirilenko back for this game. Jazz won all three home games in first round, winning by 12-11-8 points. Lakers lost two of three games at Oklahoma City in their first round series.
Tips and Trends
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Cavaliers (-1, O/U 196.5): Cleveland had their backs up against the wall for arguably the 1st time this season, and their answer was a resounding one. Cleveland dominated the Celtics in Game 3, leading the entire way. F LeBron James was dynamic, as he scored a game high 38 PTS. James was extremely efficient offensively, and also had 8 rebounds and 7 assists against only 1 turnover. All 5 starters scored in double figures for the Cavaliers, as they played their most complete game of the playoffs in a high stakes situation. Cleveland is 67-23 SU and 42-47-1 ATS overall this season. The Cavaliers are 28-16 SU and 24-19 ATS in road contests this season. Cleveland is 2-1 ATS as a road favorite of 3 PTS or fewer this season. The Cavaliers are 23-17 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning SU record.
Cavs are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite up to 4.5 points.
Over is 6-1 last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Celtics: Boston's home court advantage was short lived, as the Celtics were dominated by the Cavaliers in Game 3. The Celtics fell behind literally from the opening tip, and ultimately lost by 29 PTS to Cleveland. Boston lost every quarter to Cleveland, and allowed the Cavaliers to score 124 PTS while shooting nearly 60% from the field. F Paul Pierce needs to flat out play better, as he had a non-existent 11 PTS in Game 3. Pierce is only scoring 12.7 PPG and is shooting just 31% against Cleveland in this playoff series. PG Rajon Rondo is averaging 16.3 PPG and nearly 12 APG during the playoffs this year. F Kevin Garnett is also playing well, averaging 16.5 PPG and nearly 10 RPG during the playoffs. Boston is 55-35 SU and 38-50-2 ATS overall this season. Boston is 27-18 SU and 15-29-1 ATS in home games this season. The Celtics need to use their battle tested experience to lead them in this vital Game 4 at home.
Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 93
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
Suns: Phoenix continues their dominating form, as they are 1 victory away from the Western Conference Finals. The Suns have been relentless on offense, as they continually score at least 110 PTS and shoot 50% from the field or better. Phoenix was expected to struggle in this series against the Spurs, their playoff nemesis. Instead, the Suns appear to be playing the best basketball in the Western Conference. The Suns have a deep bench, with G Goran Dragic the latest role player to step up for the Suns. Dragic had 26 PTS, all in the 2nd half to carry the Suns to victory in Game 3. G Jason Richardson is averaging 23 PPG in leading the Suns in scoring during the playoffs. C Channing Frye and F Jared Dudley have contributed 29 three pointers so far in the playoffs. Phoenix is 61-30 SU and 55-35-1 ATS overall this season. The Suns are 25-20 SU and 26-19 ATS in road games this season. Phoenix is now 17-4 ATS against Southwest Division opponents this year.
Suns are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a road underdog.
Under is 8-1-1 last 10 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Key Injuries - C Robin Lopez (back) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Spurs (-3.5, O/U 207): San Antonio could of never imagined that they would be facing elimination in Game 4, but that's exactly the case. After entering this series as arguably the hottest team in the NBA, the Spurs are 48 minutes away from vacation time. The Spurs looked to be in control of Game 3 at home, but the 4th quarter proved to be costly. San Antonio has absolutely no answer for the Suns offense, as Phoenix again scored 110 PTS. G Manu Ginobli had a team high 27 PTS, including 4 three pointers in Game 3. F Tim Duncan had 15 PTS and 13 rebounds to help San Antonio, but PG Tony Parker was limited to just 10 PTS in defeat. San Antonio is 54-37 SU and 47-42-2 ATS overall this season. The Spurs are 32-13 SU and 26-17-2 ATS in home games this season. San Antonio is only 6-8 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS this season. The Spurs will attempt to avoid elimination on their home floor, as they are a proud franchise that was once considered a dynasty.
Spurs are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Key Injuries - G Tony Parker (shoulder) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 107 (Side of the Day)