Lakers at Celtics, Game 5
By Brian Edwards
Before the NBA Finals move back to the West coast, there’s this little matter of Game 5 in Beantown. The series is tied at 2-2 after Boston (64-39 straight up, 47-54-2 against the spread) captured a 96-89 win over the Lakers in Thursday’s Game 4. The Celtics covered the number as four-point home favorites, outscoring Phil Jackson’s club 36-27 in the final stanza.
The 185 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 190-point total.
Most sports books have installed Doc Rivers’ squad as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 187. Bettors can take Los Angeles (71-31 SU, 44-55-3 ATS) to win outright for a plus-125 return. Most spots have the C’s as 1 ½-point favorites for first-half wagers, while the total is 94.
Six Boston players scored in double figures in the Game 4 victory. Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis and Nate Robinson produced huge performances from off the bench. Davis erupted for 18 points and five rebounds in just 22 minutes of playing time. Robinson chipped in with 12 points, knocking down 4-of-8 shots, including a pair of treys, in nearly 17 minutes of action.
Paul Pierce scored a team-high 19 points and also grabbed six rebounds and dished out five assists.
Kobe Bryant scored a game-high 33 points in the losing effort, but he also had an abysmal 2/7 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Pau Gasol added 21 points, but he was blanked at crunch time and committed four turnovers. Lamar Odom added 10 points and seven boards from off the bench.
Andrew Bynum tweaked his torn meniscus in Game 3 and wasn’t able to go in the second half of Game 4. He was limited to just 12 minutes of playing time, scoring two points and grabbing three rebounds. Bynum is expected to give it a go in Game 5, but there’s no telling how many minutes he’s going to play due to fluid buildup in his knee.
Boston has compiled a 32-20 SU record and a 21-30-1 spread mark at home this year. During the playoffs, the Celtics have gone 8-3 both SU and ATS at home.
The Lakers have posted a 28-23 SU record and a 22-28-1 spread ledger in their road assignments this season. During the postseason, they are 5-5 both SU and ATS in 10 road games.
The ‘under’ is on a 4-1-1 run for the Lakers (regardless of venue), but they have seen the ‘over’ go 5-4-1 in their 10 road playoff games. For the season, L.A. has watched the ‘under’ go 53-46-3 overall, 27-23-1 in its road outings.
The ‘under’ is 51-50-2 overall for the Celtics, 26-25-1 in their home games.
Tip-off for Game 5 on Sunday night is slated for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The team that has won the rebounding battle has won all four games of this series to date.
As of Saturday afternoon, only a few books had released prop bets. At those betting shops, most had Kobe Bryant’s ‘over/under’ for points scored at 29 ½. He has had the following scoring outputs in the first four games of the NBA Finals: 30, 21, 29 and 33.
Pierce’s ‘over/under’ is 19 ½ at most spots. His scoring totals have looked like this: 24, 10, 15 and 19.
Bettors can take the ‘over’ or ‘under’ for the total points scored by each team. Boston’s total is 95, while L.A.’s is 92.
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Game of the day: LA Lakers at Boston Celtics
By STEVE MERRIL
Line dancing
The early money quickly came in on the under and the oddsmakers had to drop the Game 5 total from 189.5 to 187.5 (187 with some books). It is not a surprise considering the under is now 3-1 in this series and 5-1 in all six meetings this season.
The books opened Boston as a 3-point home favorite for Game 5 and the line is holding steady. The zig-zag theory has applied in this series as the loser of the previous game is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread so far.
Despite being the underdog in Game 5, the Lakers are still a -190 favorite to win this overall series because Game 6 and 7 (if necessary) will both take place in Los Angeles. This line is actually a bit higher than the initial series line which saw the Lakers open as a -185 favorite last week.
Past History
Kobe Bryant missed the regular season meeting on February 18 and the Celtics won 87-86 as a 2.5-point underdog at Los Angeles, but the Lakers are still 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in the other seven head-to-head meetings the past two seasons.
This is a stark reversal from the 2007-08 season which saw the Celtics go a perfect 8-0 against the spread versus the Lakers (6-2 straight-up) on Boston’s way to the NBA Championship.
The Celtics actually lost Game 5 in the 2008 NBA Finals, 103-98, as a 7-point road underdog, but Boston came back and dominated Game 6 with a series-clinching 131-92 win as a 4.5-point home favorite.
What Happened to Ray?
Boston’s Ray Allen single handily led the Celtics to a win in Game 2. He scored a game-high 32 points after shooting 55 percent (11-20) from the field. Allen also set a Finals record by knocking down eight 3-pointers including seven in the first half.
But Allen’s shooting touch has disappeared over the last two games. In Games 3 and 4 Allen has scored a total of 14 points on a miserable 16.7 percent (4-24) shooting from the field. And he hasn’t hit a 3-pointer since Game 2, going 0-12 from beyond the arc.
Second Unit Shines
The Celtics won Game 4 thanks to their second unit. Down 62-60 going into the fourth quarter, head coach Doc Rivers took a major gamble by beginning the final 12 minutes with four reserves and one starter (Ray Allen) on the court.
Doc’s gamble paid off as the duo of Glen Davis and Nate Robinson led the Celtics to victory. They scored a combined 30 points after going 11-18 (61 percent) from the floor. They played all but the final two minutes of the quarter and if not for their outstanding performance, Boston may not have won that game.
Andrew Bynum’s Knee
Los Angeles desperately needs Andrew Bynum back on the court. The big man has played a huge part in his team's playoff run this season, but his nagging knee injury has become a major concern over the last two games.
Bynum averaged 13 points and seven rebounds in the first two games of the series but he was limited to just two points and three rebounds in 12 minutes in Game 4 because of the sore knee. The Celtics offense and defense looks much better with Bynum on the bench.
Bynum is expected to play Sunday.
NBA RoundUp for 6/13
By Dan Bebe
Lakers @ Celtics - Boston by 3 with a total of 187. The mighty game 5! This one is a toughie! We got a powerhouse performance from Kobe Bryant, especially from outside, but we got even more impressive work from the Boston bench in game 4 (Big Baby, Nate Robinson), that led the Celtics out to a 4th quarter lead that they would not relinquish. Of course, if you're a zig-zagger, you like the Lakers. If you're a pragmatist, you probably like the Celtics. This might be the toughest game to get a read on thus far in the Finals. The Celtics have a chance to go up 3-2 with a home win, and they know damn well that if they go down, they're basically done. The Lakers know Boston is dynamite on the road, and LA doesn't want to take the chance that Ray Allen pops off for another 8 threeballs in LA, and ruins a perfectly winnable game. Motivationally, I think the Celtics have a small edge, here. This is basically a must-win for them, since the Lakers already have "home court", and a loss here would give the Lakers double-match point going home. Of course, there's no chance that Kobe, or any of the Lakers top players takes this game lightly. Kobe talked all night about how the Celtics just had more hustle and more energy in game 4, and that's why they won the game. He's right too. The Lakers were matching Boston bucket for bucket all game long, and actually had a narrow lead most of the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that Boston bench came in, went nuts, picked up technical fouls (that the Lakers couldn't make, anyway), and energy and heart carried them through. I find it difficult to really put a seal on either team having a huge edge in hustle points. Boston should be able to manufacture a slight hustle edge because of the home crowd, but the Lakers out-hustled them in game 3, so you never can quite tell. And match-up wise, nothing has really changed. The total was adjusted down pretty significantly, considering the final score of game 4 was just 5 points under the posted total. I have to believe game 5 is going to get played somewhat similarly to game 4, and I wonder if perhaps the line wasn't overadjusted just a tad. Of course, the rest of the world might feel similarly. My initial impression is that this total might finally be right on the mark, but let's keep an eye on line movement, and see if we can't continue digging on adjustments and schemes. This one is going to be a heck of a battle, that's for sure.
Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
Lakers: Los Angeles certainly had their chances, as they entered the final quarter of Game 4 with the lead. Unfortunately, the Lakers couldn't match the passion of the Celtics bench, and it hurt them defensively as they gave up 36 4th quarter points. 3 of the 5 starters for Los Angeles played at least 40 minutes during Game 4. Only 2 starters scored in double figures for the Lakers, G Kobe Bryant and F Pau Gasol. Bryant had a game high 33 PTS, including 6 three pointers. However, Bryant had 7 turnovers against only 2 assists. When Los Angeles plays from behind, it's vital that Bryant trust his teammates. Gasol had 21 PTS and 6 rebounds in Game 4, including 9 made free throws. Los Angeles still isn't getting much from their bench, as they were outscored 36-18 by the Celtics bench in Game 4. The Lakers very well might not win another game this season if they don't take better care of the basketball. In Game 4, the Lakers had 18 turnovers against 15 assists as a team. The Lakers are 71-31 SU and 44-55-3 ATS overall this season. Los Angeles is 28-23 SU and 23-27-1 ATS overall on the road this year. The Lakers are 5-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3 PTS or fewer this season.
Lakers are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 21-7 last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Celtics (-3, O/U 187): Boston stepped up in a big way in the 4th Quarter of Game 4 to ultimately tie up the NBA Finals with the Lakers at 2-2. More specifically, the Celtics bench stepped up to the challenge and helped defeat the Lakers. F Glen Davis and G Nate Robinson breathed life into this Celtic squad, as Boston outscored the Lakers 36-27 in the decisive 4th quarter. The winner of the 4th quarter has dominated this series, so the fact that Boston is getting help from their bench play certainly puts them in the drivers seat. Davis made 7 of his 10 shots, scoring 18 PTS and grabbing 5 rebounds in 22 minutes of play. Robinson scored 12 PTS in 16 minutes, including 2 vital three pointers. No Celtics player scored more than 19 PTS, but 6 different players scored in double figures. F Paul Pierce led Boston in scoring with 19 PTS. Pierce played arguably his best game of the Finals, as he also had 6 rebounds and 5 assists in a well rounded performance. Boston is 64-39 SU and 47-54-2 ATS overall this season. The Celtics are 32-20 SU and 20-31-1 ATS overall at home this season. Boston is 9-5 ATS in games that they had at least 2 days of rest in this year.
Celtics are 9-3 ATS last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a home favorite.
Key injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (OVER - Total of the Day)
NBA News and Notes
Three days in between games with no travel; thats a lot of time for the coaches to make adjustments, and players to heal. Bynum's knee is key for Lakers; he played only 12:10 in Game 4-- without him, Lakers don't have enough muscle. Boston outhustled them, getting 16 boards on the offensive end, and got huge lift from bench in 4th quarter run. Robinson was +8 in 16:50, Wallace +7 in 21:45; none of the four Laker subs were better than -5. Bryant was 6-11 on treys in Game 4, 4-11 on 2's, as the Boston defenders force him to take difficult shots. This is bigger game for Celtics, since they can't expect to win if they go to LA down 3-2. Allen is now 4-24 from floor in last two games.