Thursday's Best NBA Bet
Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Bobcats (-4.5, 187)
Philadelphia coach Doug Collins has no doubt who makes his team go. It’s not guard Jrue Holiday, it’s not rookie Evan Turner and it’s not forward Elton Brand.
It’s guard Lou Williams. Yeah, the one making the YouTube rounds singing with his shirt off. But when his jersey is on, he’s become a force for the 76ers.
"Lou Williams is the catalyst," Sixers coach Doug Collins said. "I could go back and play all these tapes: When Lou Williams plays well and he's on the floor at the end of the game, he's the one guy for us that can create a shot for himself or his teammate."
In a 96-92 overtime win against the Bobcats on Monday, it was the Lou Williams Show. After a quiet first half, he scored 12 points in the third quarter, nine more in the fourth - including an overtime-forcing three with less than 5 seconds left - and added a pair of free throws in overtime to finish with 23 points.
This season, Williams is averaging 13 points per game as he is shooting just .392 from the floor, but over his past five – including the win over Charlotte – he has upped those numbers to 18.8 points per game as he is making .452 percent of his attempts.
And they should keep dropping against Charlotte.
Pick: Philadelphia
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
By: Barry Daniels
When the Central Division-leading Chicago Bulls host the Dallas Mavericks in the first game of Thursday’s TNT-TV pro hoop doubleheader at 5 p.m. (PT), the timing could not be better.
The Bulls will be catching a Mavs squad that was in the midst of a six-game losing skid prior to Wednesday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Mavs have actually been pretty good during the second game of back-to-back situations, going 5-3 both SU and ATS. However, Dallas played at Detroit on Sunday to end a four-game road trip, then flew back home to host the Lakers before going back on the road to Chicago.
This should be a tired Dallas team that Chicago will face, especially since the Mavs are not 100 percent healthy.
Dirk Nowitzki has been playing despite a gimpy knee, while starting center Tyson Chandler has missed the last two games with flu-like symptoms. The Don Best Sports injury report lists Chandler as “probable” for Wednesday’s contest with the Lakers, so he should be available Thursday against the Bulls.
Dallas has yielded triple-digits in four of its last five outings, which included a 103-89 setback Sunday against an offensively challenged Detroit team. Despite the recent defensive slump, the Mavs still rank sixth defensively by allowing 94.5 points per game.
But the recent injuries to Nowitzki, Chandler and Caron Butler, who is out for at least four months with a knee injury, has taken a toll offensively. The Mavs are averaging just 96.7 PPG, which is 27th fewest in the league.
Chicago had its three-game winning streak snapped during Tuesday’s 83-82 heartbreaking setback to the Charlotte Hornets. The Bulls failed to cover as 7 ½-point home favorites, lowering their record at United Center to 18-4 SU and 12-8-2 ATS. They are outscoring the opposition at home by an average of almost 10 points per game (100.3 – 90.7).
The combined 165 points ducked well below the 183-point closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 13-6 in Chicago’s last 19 home games and 26-16 overall.
Derrick Rose collected 33 points to lead Chicago, but missed a shot at the buzzer that would have sent the Hornets home with a loss. Ronnie Brewer had 12 points and Luol Deng added 10.
The Bulls were playing without starting forward Carlos Boozer, who missed his second straight game with a sprained ankle. Boozer, second on the team in both scoring (20.1 PPG) and rebounding (10.1 RPG), is listed as “questionable.”
Chicago has not allowed the opposition to register triple-digits in nine of its last 10 games, which has helped the defense move up to third in the league with a 93.0 PPG average. The Bulls are just 17th offensively, averaging 98.5 PPG.
Dallas and Chicago have already met once this season (Nov. 19), with the Bulls registering an 88-83 victory as five-point road underdogs. The combined 171 points dipped well ‘under’ the 193 ½-point closing total.
Rose led the Bulls with 22 points, while Joakim Noah pulled down 17 rebounds. Noah has since suffered a thumb injury that has caused him to miss the club’s last 18 games. He is not scheduled to return until March.
Nowitzki led the Mavs with 36 points. Caron Butler was the only other Mavs player in double-digits with 12 markers. The Mavs were badly out-rebounded 63-39.
Dallas has not had much success at Chicago lately, going 3-7 ATS in its last 10 trips to United Center.
The Mavs will remain on their grueling schedule Friday with a stop in New Jersey to play the Nets. Chicago will continue its six-game homestand Friday by hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Clippers, Blazers cap NBA odds doubleheader
By: Stephen Nover
Through mid-December it looked like the same Los Angeles Clippers, losers of 21 of their first 26 games.
But since then the Clippers have won 10 of 14 games through Tuesday, going 9-4-1 against the spread.
Los Angeles hasn’t finished a season above .500 since 2005-06.
The Clippers will try to stay hot when they play the Trail Blazers Thursday night in Portland at 7:35 PT with TNT televising. The broadcast is preceded by the Mavericks, Bulls matchup in Chicago.
Blake Griffin has spurred the Clippers’ turnaround with a franchise record 27 consecutive double-double performances. He’s averaged 26.7 points and 14 rebounds per game during Los Angeles’ past 14 matchups heading into Wednesday.
Griffin scored a career-high 47 points in the Clippers’ 114-107 home win against Indiana as 3 ½-point favorites this past Monday. Griffin made 19-of-24 shots from the field in posting the highest scoring game in the NBA this season.
The scary thing in that performance was Griffin, a slam dunk master, had only one dunk.
Griffin currently ranks 12th in scoring at 22.5 points a game and is fourth in rebounding at 12.8 a contest. He is making less than 61 percent of his free throws, but in the last seven games was averaging 70.2 percent from the foul line.
Sparked by Griffin, Baron Davis at point guard and Eric Gordon, who currently ranks eighth in scoring at 23.9 points a game, Los Angeles was 17-7-1 AS in its last 25 games versus Western Conference foes.
The Clippers, who hosted Minnesota on Wednesday night, were 6-3-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back games.
This doesn’t figure to be an easy matchup for the Clippers, though.
Portland has won 10 of its last 12 games at Rose Garden. One of the Trail Blazers’ two defeats in this span came to Miami in overtime.
The Trail Blazers, who played at Sacramento on Wednesday night, are 4-6 ATS in the second of consecutive games.
However, the Clippers will be in action for the fourth time in five days.
This marks Portland’s first of five home games in a row. The Trail Blazers haven’t been with three-time All-Star guard Brandon Roy, who is out after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on both knees.
Portland has won 10 of its first 16 games without Roy. Portland has a couple of other injuries, too. Marcus Camby injured his knee during the Trail Blazers’ 113-102 home win against Minnesota as 7 ½-point favorites this past Monday.
Rudy Fernandez, who had 13 points and five steals against the Timberwolves, suffered a bruised knee.
LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up big-time in Roy’s absence. He had put together 20 double-double during Portland’s first 42 games, while averaging a career-best 21.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per contest.
Portland has defeated the Clippers four straight times, including twice this season.
The Trail Blazers beat Los Angeles, 98-88, opening night as two-point road favorites. The combined 186 points dipped ‘under’ the 191 ½-point total. Roy led the way with 22 points and 10 rebounds. Camby scored 11 points, pulled down 14 boards and had three blocks.
The loss spoiled Griffin’s NBA debut. Griffin, who had 20 points and 14 rebounds in the defeat, was the top overall pick in the draft two years ago but missed last season with a knee injury.
Portland also won and covered in the second meeting between the two clubs, 100-91, as 6 ½-point home favorites on Dec. 5. The combined 191 points pushed on the 191 total.
Wesley Matthews led Portland with 26 points. Camby pulled down 19 rebounds. Roy played and had 14 points.
The Trail Blazers won despite shooting 39.7 percent from the floor.
The ‘over’ had cashed in seven of the Clippers’ past 10 games through Tuesday.
NBA TNT Doubleheader Preview
By Ben Burns
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls (-3.5, 183)
The Bulls killed the Mavericks on the boards (59-24) and overcame 36 points from Dirk Nowitzki in an 88-83 win in Dallas on Nov. 17.
Dallas was a much better team back then than they are now.
Fading and depleted, the Mavs stumble into Chicago having lost 9 of 11. Nowitzki missed nine games during that stretch with a knee sprain, but returned to the lineup last week and had 32 points in Monday’s loss at Detroit.
The Mavs also lost Caron Butler for the season on Jan. 1 and have really struggled to find offense with Butler gone and Nowitzki ailing. Before Wednesday’s home game against the Lakers, the Mavericks were 2-6 ATS without Butler.
The Bulls, on the other hand, have won three of four and had Wednesday off. Chicago will need to shake off Tuesday’s one-point home loss to Charlotte, only the fourth loss at the United Center for the Bulls’ this season.
Injury Report
The Bulls played without Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah against the Bobcats. As of Wednesday afternoon, it seemed very unlikely Boozer would play Thursday. Noah has been out since Dec. 16 after thumb surgery, but is expected to return in the coming weeks. The Bulls are 8-9-1 ATS without Noah and 8-10 over/under.
Blossoming Rose
Unlike the Mavs, Chicago hasn’t folded without one of its key cogs in Noah. The Bulls (28-14, 23-17-2 ATS) lead the Central Division by 10 games. Point guard Derrick Rose is the primary reason why.
Now in his third year, Rose has developed into the most explosive point guard in the league. He’s averaging 24.7 points and has recorded at least one blocked shot in his last six games. There are a few seven-foot centers out there that would be jealous of that stat line. Rose scored 22 and sparked a second-half rally in the Bulls’ win in Dallas in November. For his career, he’s averaging 25 points and 7.5 assists against Dallas.
Trends
- The Mavericks have won three of their four last meetings with the Bulls and have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games overall against Chicago.
- Dallas is 6-2 straight-up and 6-3 ATS on the second of back-to-back games.
- Chicago with one day’s rest is 5-0 straight-up and 3-2 ATS against teams playing the second of back-to-back games.
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5, 194.5)
The Clippers, thanks to Blake Griffin, might actually be emerging into a public favorite.
One night after hosting Minnesota, Griffin and the Clippers head to Portland to face a Trail Blazers squad trying to hang in without Brandon Roy.
Heading into Wednesday’s game, the Clippers had won five of six. That stretch was highlighted by a 99-92 win over the Lakers and Monday’s 47-point explosion by Griffin in a win over Indiana. Griffin has been held to under 20 points only once since Dec. 12 and seemingly leads SportsCenter on a nightly basis with the kind of jaw-dropping highlights that attract public bettors.
Meanwhile, Portland has been gritty without Roy, who underwent surgery on both knees Monday and is out indefinitely. Heading into Wednesday’s game at Sacramento, the Trail Blazers were 10-6 (7-8 ATS, 9-6 over/under) in their last 16 games without Roy.
Banged up Blazers
Portland also has lost Greg Oden for the year and Marcus Camby until late February. Now, Rudy Fernandez is banged-up and was questionable to play Wednesday against the Kings.
The Trail Blazers had Roy, Camby and Fernandez in both of their wins over the Clippers this season, 100-91 in Portland on Dec. 5 and 98-88 on Oct. 26 in Los Angeles. The Blazers were favored by 6.5 at home and by 2 in L.A.
With Roy and Camby out, LaMarcus Aldridge is the Blazers’ go-to guy. He absolutely cannot afford to get into foul trouble trying to slow down Griffin. Aldridge fouled out in the last game against the Clippers. It’s the only game this season in which he’s been disqualified.
With both teams playing the second of back-to-back games, depth certainly will be a factor. The Clippers are 4-6 straight-up and 6-3-1 ATS on the second of back-to-back games. Portland is 6-5 straight-up and 5-6 ATS in the same situation.
Trends
- Over is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings in Portland.
- Favorite and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
- Clippers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six second games of back-to-backs.
- Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
BA RoundUp for 1/20
by Dan Bebe
Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats (-4) with a total of 187
This is one of those screwball rematch games, since Charlotte lost an overtime affair with the Sixers as a 5-point underdog, but did manage to cover. So, how does that emotion roll into this game? Something tells me we get another close one. I think Charlotte might have the gusto to grab the win when the final buzzer sounds, and given that Philadelphia had to play a heartbreaker in Orlando last night maybe they run a tiny bit low on gusto. Still, this is going to be heated. Neither team has forgotten about the fight that took place a couple days back, and Charlotte remembers giving back what appeared to be a win. Also, this line is on its way up, thanks to Philly's OT tilt. Still, it's not much travel time, and Charlotte has found itself in a number of close games lately. In fact, the Bobcats have played 5 straight games decided by 7 points or less, and 4 of those 5 have been decided by 5 or less. Makes it tough to lay more than that, doesn't it? Lean to PHILLY and the OVER.
Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls (-3.5) with a total of 183
Chicago sure looks like the easy side, given their impressive home record, and the fact that no one expects them to lay an egg at home in back-to-back games, but I watched that game with Charlotte, and the Bulls looked desperate many, many times on offense. They ran almost every single play through Derrick Rose, and on the three or four plays per quarter that Rose didn't touch the ball, the Bulls looked confused, disjointed and unable to score. What we saw from Charlotte, and I have to think the Mavs will employ a similar technique, is to double-team Rose beyond the 3-point line. The Bulls have about 2 shooters on their team, and they aren't in the game most of the time, which means that the defense often has time to recover off the double-team. With Boozer around, the Bulls have someone else that needs to be covered at all times, can make the 15-footer, and take it to the rim strong. He's expected to miss another game or two, so this is going to have to be the Rose show, and if Tyson Chandler can stop barfing for a few hours, I actually think the Mavs win this sucker straight up. Lean to DALLAS and the UNDER.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers (-4.5) with a total of 195
Both teams played last night, and right now, the Clippers are the more energized team. The only problem is that most of the Clippers' recent damage has been done at home, and I'm not sold on how well they can play on the road. We know the Clippers can score, though Eric Gordon seemed to hurt his hand in last night's game with the Wolves, the question is whether they can defend, and from the looks of things, no, they cannot. The Clippers home/road splits are pretty laughable in that regard - LA scores 98.5 points per game at home, and 99 on the road, but they allow 97.9 at home, and a ridiculous 106.3 on the road, a different of over 7 points! That's not going to cut it. You can score 100 all you want, but if you're allowing near 110 points to your opponent, you're not going to win. I hate to lean against one of the hottest teams in the NBA, so I'm not going to, but I will tell everyone to be careful before taking the +4.5 and thinking it's the easiest wager of the century. WAIT AND SEE on the side, to check out how last night's games end, and a lean to the OVER on the total.
Tips and Trends
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
MAVERICKS: The Mavericks have slumped of late, losing their past 6 games SU heading into their meeting with the defending NBA champions. F Dirk Nowitzki is back in uniform, which will only help Dallas moving forward The Mavericks are 26-14 SU and 20-18-2 ATS overall this season. Dallas is currently the 5th seed in the Western Conference. The Mavericks are 14-8 SU and 8-12 ATS in home games this season. Dallas is 9-6 ATS as the listed underdog this year. Nowitzki is averaging a team high 23.8 PPG this year, the only Mavericks player averaging more than 16 PPG this year. C Tyson Chandler is averaging 9.1 PPG and 9.1 RPG this year for Dallas. The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. Dallas is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Eastern Conference. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Mavericks are 10-3 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
Over is 9-2 last 11 games against the Eastern Conference.
Key Injuries - C Tyson Chandler (illness) is probable.
Projected Score: 86
BULLS: (-3.5, O/U 183) Chicago is absolutely dominating the Central division this year, as they currently hold a 10 game lead. The Bulls are 28-14 SU and 23-17-2 ATS overall this season. Chicago has already beaten the Mavericks once this year, and they will try to make it a season sweep tonight. The Bulls are 18-4 SU and 12-9 ATS at home this year. Chicago is 2-1 ATS as a home favorite between 3 and 6 PTS this season. The Bulls are 12-5 ATS in non-conference games this year. Chicago is playing amazing defense this year, as they are allowing just 93 PPG, 3rd fewest in the NBA. PG Derrick Rose is a legitimate MVP candidate this year, as he's averaging team highs of 24.7 PPG and 8 APG. F Carlos Boozer is averaging 20.1 PPG and 10.1 RPG this year for Chicago. The Bulls are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bulls are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games as the listed favorite up to 4.5 points. Chicago is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Bulls are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 games against the NBA Southwest.
Under is 12-3 last 15 games against the Western Conference.
Key Injuries - F Carlos Boozer (ankle) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 90 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trailblazers
CLIPPERS: There hasn't been more hype surrounding the Clippers in quite some time. Los Angeles has won 5 of their past 6 games SU, with much credit going to super rookie F Blake Griffin. Griffin has brought instant credibility to a franchise that was downright desperate. The Clippers are 15-25 SU and 21-18-1 ATS overall this season. Los Angeles is 3-12 SU and 8-6 ATS on the road this year. The Clippers are 15-13 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Revenge is on the mind of Los Angeles, as they are 0-2 both SU and ATS this season against Portland. Griffin is a averaging 22.5 PPG and a team high 12.8 RPG this season. G Eric Gordon is having an underrated season in his own right, as he's averaging a team high 23.9 PPG. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Los Angeles is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the NBA Northwest. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
Clippers are 11-5 ATS last 16 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Over is 15-5 last 20 games playing on 0 days rest.
Key Injuries - C Chris Kaman (ankle) is out.
Projected Score: 98 (SIDE of the Day)
TRAILBLAZERS: (-3.5, O/U 195) Portland is starting to steady their ship, as they grow accustomed to life without star G Brandon Roy. The Blazers are 22-20 SU and 20-20-2 ATS this season, placing them 8th in the Western Conference playoff standings. Portland is 14-5 SU and 11-8 ATS in home games this season. The Blazers are 1-5 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS this year. Portland has scored 100 PTS or more in 5 of their last 7 games overall. F LaMarcus Aldridge is having an All-Star caliber season, as he's averaging a team high 21.1 PPG this year, along with 8.8 RPG. PG Andre Miller is averaging 12.9 PPG and a team high 7.3 APG. Defensively, Portland is allowing 95.5 PPG, the 9th fewest in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite up to 4.5 points. Portland is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Portland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Trailblazers are 8-3 ATS last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Key Injuries - C Marcus Camby (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 94