Thursday's Best NBA Bet
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks (-5.5, 204)
Don’t call the Dallas Mavericks soft. The team demonstrated its newfound toughness in a 112-105 comeback win over the Clippers. Whether it was Brendan Haywood picking up a flagrant foul on Blake Griffin attacking the rim or coach Rick Carlisle picking up a technical foul for going after Clippers guard Baron Davis elbowing guard J.J. Barea, the Mavs wouldn’t back down.
This newfound spunk is apparent in the team’s defense, as Dallas is giving up the 6th fewest points in the league (94.4) and has the 11th best field goal defense (44.9). Against Los Angeles, Carlisle trusted his team to aggressively shut down Griffin and clog up the Clippers offense.
“The second half, we decided to allow our players to read those situations and decide when the right time to go was and wasn’t,” Carlisle said. “It’s very difficult with a player who’s that willing to pass. If you just go run at him, he’s going to throw darts and they’re going to hit threes, simple as that. The second half our guys did a good job of changing it up.”
Houston does bring the league’s fourth-best offense – averaging 105.5 points per game -- but don’t expect the Rockets to throw anything at Dallas they aren’t ready for. The Mavericks won the team’s earlier meeting, 101-91 and stopped the Houston attack cold.
Pick: Dallas
Miami Heat tip NBA betting twinbill at Knicks
By: Michael Robinson
The Miami Heat should have a big addition to their lineup when they visit the New York Knicks on Thursday night.
The Heat (31-13 straight-up, 21-22-1 against the spread) are just 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games. LeBron James (ankle) missed two of them before returning two games ago. Chris Bosh (ankle) has missed the last two and is out another week. Dwyane Wade (migraine) was out last game, but should be fine for Thursday.
Miami’s last contest came on Saturday, 120-103 home win over Toronto as 10 ½-point favorites. That snapped a four-game losing streak with James (38) and Mike Miller (32) combining for 70 points, compensating for the loss of Bosh and Wade. Toronto was the perfect team to get healthy against, losers of six-straight heading into Miami.
The 223 combined points scored went over the 196½-point total. The ‘over’
is 7-1 in Miami’s eight games.
Dwyane WadeWade will move back into the starting lineup with either James Jones or Miller going on the bench. Miller will get a lot of minutes against New York either way and his offensive outburst couldn’t have come at a better time. He hasn’t even scored in double-digits this year after missing the first 29 games (thumb).
Coach Erik Spoelstra has had to tinker with his lineup a lot lately. Mario Chalmers is the new point guard and he had 10 points and nine assists against Toronto. That’s more assists than former starter Carlos Arroyo has had in any game this season.
James has also been forced to play some power forward with Bosh out. He is certainly strong and quick enough to score in the low post and it’s a good skill to improve upon even when Bosh is back.
New York (23-21 SU, 27-15-2 ATS) fell on rough times before a 115-106 home win over Washington on Monday as 7½-point favorites. That broke a six-game losing streak (2-3-1 ATS) that included a tough three-game swing at Houston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City.
Amare Stoudemire had 32 points against the Wizards and Wilson Chandler added 25. Chandler has been prominently mentioned in trade talks for Denver’s Carmelo Anthony and he really during the losing streak (11.2 PPG, 36.5 percent shooting).
Coach Mike D’Antoni up-tempo offense is averaging 106.7 PPG on the season (second in the NBA), but was held under 100 points four times during the losing streak. The ‘under’ was 7-2 in the prior nine games before gong ‘over’ against Washington.
Miami and New York have met twice since James spurned the Knicks during free agency and ‘took his talents to South Beach.’ The Heat went into the Big Apple on Dec. 17 and blew out New York 113-91 as five-point favorites. James was unfazed by Spike Lee and the rest of the crowd giving him the business. He had 32 points and a triple-double.
The second game came Dec. 28 in Miami. The Heat won again 106-98 as 8½-point ‘chalk.’ New York made a late run to get the ‘cover.’
New York plays without a true starting power forward, so it won’t be able to take advantage of the Bosh injury. Stoudemire (54 combined points in the first two meetings) has a huge quickness advantage on Miami starter Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Expect to see a lot of backup big man Joel Anthony.
The Knicks are 11-9 SU and 10-9-1 ATS at home this year. The Heat are 15-8 SU and 13-9-1 ATS away.
New York is 6-3 ATS on two days rest this season.
Tip-off from Madison Square Garden is 5 p.m. (PT). This is the first half of the TNT doubleheader with Boston at Portland in the nightcap.
NBA Betting Preview: Boston at Portland
By: Brad Young
Boston (34-10 straight up, 21-21-2 against the spread) begins a four-game West Coast road trip with Thursday’s contest at Portland (25-21 SU, 22-22-2 ATS).
The Celtics are currently running away with the Atlantic Division, leading second-place New York by 11 games. Coach Doc Rivers’ team would be the top seed in the Eastern Conference if the regular season ended today.
Boston leads the league in assists per game (24.8), and is second in points allowed (91.8). The Celtics are a modest 14th in points per contest (99.6), and a disappointing 30th in rebounds (38.3).
Portland presently finds itself languishing in fourth place in the Northwest Division, trailing Oklahoma City, Utah and Denver. The Trail Blazers would be the eighth and final seed in the Western Conference if the regular campaign concluded today.
Kevin GarnettDon Best's Real-Time Odds show Boston as a 4½-point road favorite over Portland, with the total set at 183. TNT will provide coverage of Thursday’s contest beginning at 7:30 p.m. PT from Portland’s Rose Garden. The broadcast is preceded by the Heat, Knicks matchup at Madison Square Garden.
Boston got back on the winning track by pummeling Cleveland Tuesday as a 16½-point home ‘chalk,’ 112-95. The combined 207 points toppled the 197-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 6-2 the past eight outings.
The Celtics dominated the contest throughout, and entered halftime with a comfortable 22-point advantage, 67-45. Boston was actually outrebounded by the Cavaliers, 29-25, but prevailed by shooting a blistering 50 percent (42-of-84) from the field and 46 percent (11-of-24) from behind the arc.
Paul Pierce netted all 24 of his points in the first half, while Ray Allen contributed 18. Pierce is listed as ‘probable’ for this contest due to an ankle injury. Point guard Rajon Rondo had 11 and 10 assists in the victory, while Glen Davis and Nate Robinson each added 11.
Portland had its five-game SU winning streak snapped with Monday’s setback to Sacramento as a seven-point home favorite, 96-81. The combined 177 points never seriously threatened the 194-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest. The Trail Blazers have now failed to cover their past two performances.
Portland trailed the Kings in rebounding (44-39) and assists (19-16), while shooting 40 percent (34-of-86) from the field and 33 percent (5-of-15) from 3-point land. The Trail Blazers defense allowed Sacramento to connect at a 50-percent clip from the field (38-of-76), and 56 percent (5-of-9) from behind the arc.
Guard Wesley Matthews scored 21 points in the loss, while small forward Nicolas Batum had 16 and nine rebounds. Point guard Andre Miller provided 18 and five assists, while forward Dante Cunningham had eight and seven boards.
Boston is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS the previous 10 meetings with Portland. The Celtics topped the Trail Blazers in the only matchup this season Dec. 1 as a seven-point home ‘chalk,’ 99-95. The combined 194 points went ‘over’ the 186 ½-point closing total. The road team is 15-6 ATS the previous 21 meetings in this series.
Boston guard Marquis Daniels (personal) is ‘probable’ versus the Trail Blazers, while center Shaquille O’Neal (hip injury), center Jermaine O’Neal (knee) and guard Delonte West (wrist) are ‘out.’ The Celtics continue their road trip with games against Phoenix, the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento.
Portland guard Brandon Roy (knee), forward LaMarcus Aldridge (knee) and center Marcus Camby (knee) are ‘out.’ The Trail Blazers conclude a five-game homestand Tuesday against San Antonio before playing six of their next seven games on the road.
NBA TNT Doubleheader Preview
By Ben Burns
Miami Heat at New York Knicks
For late January, Thursday’s Heat-Knicks game is big. LeBron James makes his second visit to Madison Square Garden as a member of the Heat. Tickets have been sold out since the schedule was released and the atmosphere will be electric. Will that be enough to lift the underdog Knicks?
James and the Heat blistered the Knicks 113-91 on Dec. 17 in New York. James dropped a monster triple-double with 32 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. Dwyane Wade added 26 points as the Heat pulled away in the second half and easily covered as 5-point favorites.
The Heat (31-13, 21-22-1 ATS) also own a 106-98 home win over the Knicks on Dec. 28. Wade exploded for 40 points in that win. Miami, however, failed to cover as an 8.5-point favorite.
But Miami won’t be at full strength for Thursday’s contest. Chris Bosh is expected to miss his third straight game. Bosh sprained his left ankle at Chicago on Jan. 15 and has not been practicing.
Wade also missed Saturday’s win over Toronto with migraines but is listed as probable.
The Knicks (23-21, 27-15-2 ATS), in contrast, are healthy and talking up the significance of Thursday’s game.
"We want to get to the next level, and to get to the next level we've got to play really good games against these guys,” forward Danilo Gallinari told the New York Post after Monday's win over the lowly Washington Wizards.
The 115-106 win over the Wizards snapped a six-game slide for the Knicks. But the Knicks remain one of the best bets in the NBA. Only Philadelphia has a better ATS mark, at 28-15-1, than New York.
Amare Stoudemire had 30 points and nine rebounds against the Wizards. He averaged 27 points and 11.5 rebounds in the two games against the Heat this season.
Over/Under numbers
The Knicks are scoring 106.7 and allowing 106.3 points per game. The Heat are scoring 101.8 and allowing 93.9 points per game.
The teams have combined to score 204 points in each of their two meetings this season.
The Over is 7-1 in Miami’s last eight games, but the Under is 7-3 in the Knicks’ last 10 games.
Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers
Portland has managed to hang around despite a rash of injuries to key players, but the schedule is about to get tougher.
The depleted Trail Blazers host the Celtics Thursday to begin a difficult three-game stretch that includes a home game against the Spurs and a trip to Denver.
Portland has been playing without All-Star guard Brandon Roy and both centers Greg Oden and Marcus Camby for much of the season. Roy and Camby were on the court in a 99-95 loss to the Celtics in Boston on Dec. 1. But both will miss Thursday’s game.
Even more disconcerting, reigning Western Conference Player of the Week LaMarcus Aldridge had an MRI on his sore right hip Tuesday, after struggling in Monday’s loss to Sacramento. The MRI showed no damage and Aldridge is expected to play against the Celtics.
Boston also is battling injuries to key players. Paul Pierce tweaked ankle in Tuesday’s blowout of Cleveland, but is expected to play against the Trail Blazers. Shaquille O’Neal (hip), however, is not expected to play, according to coach Doc Rivers. O’Neal had 14 points in Boston’s earlier win over Portland. The Celtics are already missing big man Jermaine O’Neal. But the return of center Kendrick Perkins should help reduce the loss of O’Neal and O’Neal.
Perkins, who tore his ACL in last year’s NBA Finals, made his season debut with seven points and six rebounds against the Cavs Tuesday.
The Celtics have won six of seven games overall and has won three straight over Portland.
The Blazers did cover as 7-point underdogs at Boston in their previous meeting this season. But the Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against Portland.
Over/Under numbers
The Celtics and Blazers feature two Top-10 defenses.
The Celtics are second in the NBA in points allowed (91.8), while scoring 99.6 points per game.
The Blazers aren’t far behind at ninth in scoring defense (95.2), while scoring 99.6 points per game.
Boston’s 99-95 win over the Blazers in December went over the 186.5 total. Four of the last seven meetings have had a posted over/under total of 186 or 186.5. Three of those four games have gone over the total.
Tips and Trends
Miami Heat at New York Knicks
HEAT: (-3, O/U 208) Miami is trying to chase down Boston for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Home court advantage throughout the playoffs is a huge incentive, and the Heat realize they need every edge they can get in order to beat the Celtics. Miami is pretty banged up right now, as each of the Big Three are dealing with injuries. Despite this, the Heat are 31-13 SU and 21-22-1 ATS this season. Miami is 15-8 SU on the road this season. The Heat currently have a 2.5 game lead over both Atlanta and Miami in the tough Southeast division. F LeBron James is averaging 25.9 PPG and 7.2 APG this year. Despite constant criticism, James might be having the finest season of his career. G Dwyane Wade is averaging 25.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 4.2 APG this year. The Heat are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Miami is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the NBA Atlantic. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Heat are 7-17 ATS last 24 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Over is 10-2 last 12 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - F Chris Bosh (ankle) is out.
Projected Score: 103
KNICKS: New York is hoping the 3rd time is the charm, as they've already lost twice to Miami this yer. The Knicks have been arguably the NBA's biggest surprise this year, as they have been the most improved team in the league. New York is 23-21 SU and 27-15-2 ATS overall this season. From a betting standpoint, you'd be hard pressed to find a more profitable team to put your money behind this year than the Knicks. The Knicks are 11-9 SU at home this year, and Madison Square Garden will be electric tonight. If the playoffs started today, the Knicks would be the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference. New York averages 106.7 PPG this year, 2nd most in the NBA. F Amar'e Stoudemire has been sensational this year, averaging team highs of 26.1 PPG and RPG. PG Raymond Felton is averaging 17.5 PPG and a team high 8.9 APG this season. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. New York is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the NBA Southeast. New York is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Knicks are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall.
Knicks are 20-6 ATS last 26 games following a SU win.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games overall.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 106 (SIDE of the Day)
Boston Celtics at Portland Trailblazers
CELTICS: (-3.5, O/U 187) Boston is on a mission this year, as they want to finish with the best record in the Eastern Conference so they can have home court advantage throughout the playoffs. The Celtics currently have the 2nd best record in the NBA, trailing only San Antonio. Boston is 34-10 SU and 21-22-2 ATS overall this season. The Celtics are 12-7 SU on the road this year, thanks to a veteran team that knows how to play in any surroundings. Boston won a close game over Portland earlier this season at home, so the Blazers have their full attention tonight. Boston is averaging 99.6 PPG this year, with much credit going to PG Rajon Rondo. Rondo is averaging 10.6 PPG and an NBA high 12.9 APG this year. F Paul Pierce leads the Celtics in scoring this year, averaging 19.1 PPG. F Kevin Durant is averaging 15.1 PPG and a team high 8.9 RPG this season. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Boston is 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Boston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Celtics are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. Boston is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
Celtics are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1 last 6 road games.
Key Injuries - F Paul Pierce (ankle) is probable.
Projected Score: 91 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
TRAILBLAZERS: Portland is currently in the coveted 8th spot in the Western Conference. Despite numerous injuries, if the playoffs started today the Blazers would be involved in the festivities. Portland is 25-21 SU and 22-22-2 ATS overall this season. The Blazers have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, as they are 16-6 SU this year. Portland has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the previous 3 meetings SU to Boston, including earlier this season. F LaMarcus Aldridge has turned into the Blazers strongest offensive weapon, as he's averaging a team high 21.1 PPG this year. G Wesley Matthews is averaging 16.2 PPG this season, which helps the Blazers deal with the loss of Brandon Roy. PG Andre Miller is averaging 12.9 PPG and a team high 7.1 APG this season. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Portland is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Portland is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Eastern Conference.
Trailblazers are 5-12 ATS last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 13-4 last 17 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - F LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) is probable.
Projected Score: 90
NBA RoundUp for 1/27
by Dan Bebe
Miami Heat (-3) @ New York Knicks with a total of 208
Double in-season revenge, but here's the problem - the Knicks run an offense almost exclusively through pick-and-roll (with a smattering of "give it to Amar'e" mixed in there), and the Heat might very well be the best pick-and-roll defensive team in the NBA. There's a good reason they beat up on the Knicks in both games so far this season, not the least of which is the aforementioned match-up edge. Chris Bosh is out, so that's keeping this line just a shade lower than usual, but the other two Heatles are expected to go, and I'm not all that convinced that the Heat need Bosh to win this game. And I admit, I hate when I want to play a road favorite, especially one as public as the Heat, but most of the angles do indeed point to Miami. Both teams are coming out of mini-slumps, though Miami's was largely due to injury, both teams can score, but only one of the two teams can defend. In addition, the Heat haven't played in 5 days, the perfect recipe for a team that needed to rest some aching bones. Will they be rusty? I don't think so, not with two guys that can get to the rim and finish. It's amazing how quickly the rust can shake off when you get knocked to the deck in the first 3 minutes, bang through a couple free throws, and then start raining in buckets. Lean to MIAMI and the OVER, as I believe the Knicks will shoot a little better (courtesy of the double revenge), and really, I might even like the total lean more than the side.
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks (-5.5) with a total of 204
Dallas is slowly getting its groove back, and Houston is, well, a zero-defense shoot-first monster. At this point, I'm a little ticked at myself for missing the chance to play some Overs on Houston games in the last week. I watched a few of those contests, and they might be the most up-tempo team in the NBA right now, largely because they're content just letting the other team score most trips down the court. And thus, I can't help but wonder how Houston plans on winning competitive games. Maybe they won't, and that's okay, because all that tells us is that betting Houston to cover any large spreads is a death wish. As an underdog, though, they could shoot themselves into a cover. Dallas is starting to get things back together on the offensive side, but they're not quite themselves yet, and this short line is indicative of that. We know Dallas is going to try, at least at first, to slow it down, but if Houston gets out to a quick start, that might force the Mavs to score right along with them. Dallas could still sneak out a cover, and for that reason, only the tiniest of side leans to the MAVS, but with both clubs scoring, it might be worth a peek at the OVER.
Boston Celtics (-4) @ Portland Trailblazers with a total of 187
This line is about what I expected, so that makes finding a monster value a little tough. Portland is, however, quite accustomed to grabbing some late TNT spotlights, and they haven't shied away from those big games. This is also a revenge spot from a 99-95 loss in Boston back at the beginning of December. My biggest concern with the Blazers, though, is that they just don't have enough firepower to compete with Boston when the Celtics are really giving max effort. And, I do expect a good effort from Boston here. Boston enjoys the bigger stages, this is the start of a road trip out West where veteran teams have a tendency to pull together, and we all remember how much Boston enjoys dealing butt-kickings out to the mid-tier teams in their buildings. Here's the thing - Boston shot 57% in that last game with Portland, at home, and still only won by 4 points. Portland just shot 46%, but took extremely cautious care of the basketball, utilized those extra possessions and nearly stole one on the road. Portland is coming off a terrible show against Sacramento, so they'll be focused on this one, Boston could potentially be a tiny bit jet-lagged from the flight from Ohio, and they have the Suns and Lakers on the horizon. Small lean to PORTLAND to take this one down to a final 30 second-decision (though we know my luck on those this month), and the UNDER, because neither team is shooting 57% this time around.