Thursday's Best NBA Bet
Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks (-3, 213)
Hedo Turkoglu is having an awful season. The veteran forward was signed to a fat contract in the offseason but isn’t living up to the expectations in Toronto.
Turkoglu looks out of place and out of shape in a Raptors uniform. He got some love the other night thanks to two made free throws in crunch time against the Lakers, but the one-time winner of the Most Improved Player award is averaging just 8.4 points over his last nine games.
The Raps need more offense than that especially with rookie shooting guard DeMar DeRozan nursing a sore right ankle.
But the Knicks have their own problems too. They bounced back with a win over the hapless T-Wolves after the Mavs ran Mike D’Antoni’s boys out of their own gym, but starting point guard Chris Duhon endured another cold night shooting.
The former Blue Devil scored zero points in 31 minutes in a game the Knicks totalled 132 points. It was the third time in five games Duhon had been held off the score sheet.
Pick: Under
What Bettors Need To Know: NBA doubleheader on TNT
By RICKY DIMON
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic (-3.5, 187.5)
Celtic pride
Wednesday’s trip to Orlando kicks off a difficult stretch for Boston. The Celtics (29-13, 17-25 ATS) play four games in five days with two of the remaining three contests coming at Atlanta and at home against the Los Angeles Lakers.
“These are big, big, big games,” said forward Glen Davis. “If you're not a competitor, you don't need to play in these games. This is a great opportunity for us to keep our winning streak alive and also get better against playoff-contending teams.”
The “winning streak” of which Davis speaks is a modest two-game home surge at the expense of Portland and the Los Angeles Clippers. Still, it’s a good sign after Boston had lost three in a row, including two at home to Chicago and Dallas.
Not coincidentally, the pair of victories coincided with the comeback of Kevin Garnett (hyperextended knee), who averaged 15 points in the two games. Rasheed Wallace (groin), also improving by the day, added 14 points against Portland.
Supporting Superman
Vince Carter (16.4 ppg) and Jameer Nelson (11.8 ppg, 4.8 apg) are back with a vengeance for the Magic (29-16, 22-22-1 ATS). Carter, who missed three games earlier this month with a shoulder injury, scored 21 points in a Saturday night win in Charlotte and he has posted double-figures in each of his past three contests.
“I told him that we saw ‘Vinsanity’ tonight,” star center Dwight Howard said after beating the Bobcats. “We're going to stock his locker with energy drinks. When he's aggressive like that, it just opens things up for us.”
Nelson, who underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on Nov. 18, also heated up in Charlotte. The point guard contributed 21 points and seven assists while seeing 39 minutes of action, his most extensive outing of the season.
Prior engagements
Boston and Orlando have already played twice this season—once at each venue—and the road team prevailed both times.
The Magic were 6-point underdogs when they went into Boston on Nov. 20, coming away with an 83-78 victory. Nelson was still out with his injury and Howard scored only nine points, but Carter poured in 26 and Rashard Lewis added 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Boston returned the favor on Christmas Day as a 5.5-point underdog in Orlando, emerging with an 86-77 win. Five players scored in double-figures for the Celtics, who limited the Magic to 5-for-26 shooting beyond the arc.
Trends and injuries
The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. The Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against Eastern Conference opponents.
The under is 4-1 in Boston’s last five overall and 5-1 in Orlando’s last six overall. In the last six meetings between the two teams, the under is 5-1.
Both teams are relatively healthy. In addition to the returns of Garnett and Wallace, Boston will get back Brian Scalabrine from a two-game absence stemming from a separated shoulder. Orlando, meanwhile, has no new injuries to report.
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns (-2, 216.5)
One-point wonders
The Mavericks are on a bit of a roll, and it’s a direct result of their prowess in close games. Tuesday’s 108-107 home victory over Milwaukee was Dallas’ 10th consecutive win in one-point games, tying a record set by the St. Louis Hawks between 1959 and 1960.
“It's nice to win 10 in a row like that, but still we wish they weren't so close games, especially at home,” admitted Dirk Nowitzki. “Sometimes when you can't get stops you have to find a way to win with your offense.”
A big reason for the improved offense is that Jason Terry, formerly the sixth man, has started the past four games at point guard. Terry (16.4 ppg, 3.5 apg) scored 20 or more points in three of those four contests.
Setting Suns
The Suns are reeling both on the court and off the court. They have lost seven of their last nine games (2-7 ATS) after falling at home in overtime to Charlotte on Tuesday night.
“We have to find a way to dig ourselves out of this,” said head coach Alvin Gentry. “We have to be men. It's everybody's fault. It's the players'. It's the coaches'. Nobody can escape criticism from this. As a collective group, we've got to do a better job of executing and we've got to do a better job of getting them in a situation to do that."
Injuries won’t make a possible recovery any easier. Grant Hill’s streak of 128 consecutive games played came to an end on Tuesday as a result of a bruised right heel. Hill (11.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg) is questionable for Thursday.
Leandro Barbosa (10.6 ppg) had a cyst removed from his right wrist earlier this week is not expected to return until late February or March.
Prior engagement
The Mavericks were 4.5-point home favorites against Phoenix on Dec. 8 and the result was one of their many one-point victories. Dallas shot a dreadful 6-for-23 from 3-point range, but Nowitzki scored a game-high 33 and Josh Howard added 20 en route to a 102-101 win.
Trends
Dallas is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Western Conference. Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in its last four overall and 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.
The under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last five road outings and 5-1 in the Suns’ last six home dates. The over, however, is 10-2 in Phoenix’s last 12 against Western Conference opposition.
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams and 5-1 in the last six head-to-head when the Suns host.
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
It’s Thursday, which means TNT is back with its weekly double-header. Tonight’s card starts in the Eastern Conference when the Celtics and Magic square off from the Magic Kingdom at 8:00 p.m. EST. Shortly after, the Mavericks will look to stay hot on the road against a Suns team that is looking for answers.
Gamblers following the weekly double-header on national television have been watching game of ping pong lately. The Cavaliers and Nuggets both captured straight up and against the spread victories over the pair of squads from the Los Angeles, the Lakers and Clippers respectively.
While the home favorites cashed last Thursday, two weeks prior saw the Bulls and Jazz win outright as underdogs. The ‘under’ cashed in both those games, which pushes the low-scoring streak to four on TNT. Shall that change with the pair of tilts below?
Let’s break ‘em down!
Boston (29-13 SU, 17-25 ATS) at Orlando (29-16 SU, 20-21 ATS)
Round 3 between the Celtics and Magic takes place from Central Florida on Thursday and gamblers could be scratching their heads on this matchup. For starters, neither team has been great versus the point-spread this year, plus the pair has shown glimmers of promise and signs of weaknesses as well.
Boston is mired in a five-game losing streak against the spread and it recently snapped a three-game slide, but those wins came at home against the banged-up Trail Blazers (98-95) in overtime and the Clippers (95-89). Should we believe Doc Rivers’ team will snap out of the funk in Orlando or perhaps the following night at Atlanta?
The only constant for Boston lately and the entire season has been its defense, which is held its last six opponents to 100 or less. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 during this span. Defense has been the key and often stated whenever the Celtics and Magic get together too.
The ‘under’ has cashed in both of the first two meetings this season and the ‘under’ prevailed to a 5-2 mark in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals series during the playoffs. What’s even more amazing is that the century mark was only busted three times by either the Magic or Celtics in the last nine encounters.
For those of you who forget Orlando defeated Boston in the postseason last year. The Magic defeated Boston 83-78 on Nov. 20 in Beantown but the Celtics got even with an 86-77 road victory of their own on Christmas.
A lot of Orlando’s success in past seasons has come on the road but that hasn’t been the case this year (13-12 SU, 10-12 ATS). However, Stan Van Gundy’s team has turned into a bully at home, owning a 16-4 SU and 10-9 ATS ledger. Keep in mind that Boston has gone 16-6 SU and 11-11 ATS on the road this season.
The Magic will complete the mini-round robin on Saturday when they host the Hawks, who will be playing on zero days rest after hosting Boston on Friday.
Dallas (30-15 SU, 20-25 ATS) at Phoenix (26-21 SU, 22-24 ATS)
The Mavericks and Suns were once considered a great rivalry in the West unfortunately it’s now starting to look like just another matchup. Both teams have succumbed to the age factor and the world rebuilding is often in both the Lone Star State and in the desert too.
Fortunately for Dallas it has owner Mark Cuban, who has deep pockets and will do whatever it takes to put out a quality product. The Mavericks sit in first place of the Southwest Division, which is easily the toughest group in the NBA and the only division that features every team with a winning record.
What makes the Mavericks stand out is their ability to win on the road (16-8 SU, 15-9 ATS) this season. The club recently finished up a five-game road trip against the East, which saw them go 3-2 both SU and ATS, highlighted by a 50-point victory against the Knicks (122-78).
Phoenix will try to cool off the Mavs on Thursday but it needs to right its own ship first. The team dropped an overtime decision (109-114) to Charlotte on Tuesday, which was their seventh loss in the last nine games. And the two victories came against New Jersey (3-40) and Golden State (13-30).
Trade rumors have been circling around Phoenix center Amare Stoudemire lately and it’s probably just a matter of when not if. The loss of point guard Leandro Barbosa (wrist) hurts the offense and Grant Hill (heel) is banged up as well. The Suns are currently holding the eighth and final playoff spot in the West but the loss of Stoudemire might be the start of a serious fire sale, perhaps point guard Steve Nash as well.
The Suns opened as short favorites in this battle but most would assume the betting public will switch their attention to Dallas by tip off and deservingly so too. Phoenix started the season 10-0 (6-3-1 ATS) at US Airways Center but has since gone 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS.
Dallas won and covered three of the four regular season meetings against Phoenix. This season, the two squared off on Dec. 8 and the Mavericks stopped the Suns 102-101 at home in a game that wasn’t as close as the one-point margin. The Suns did cover as 4 ½-point road underdogs and the combined 203 points snapped a four-game ‘over’ streak in the series.
vegasinsider.com
Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks
The Toronto Raptors and the New York Knicks will meet on the court at Madison Square Garden on Thursday in a battle of division rivals.
The rising Raptors came up big with a 111-103 victory over the Heat on Wednesday. The Raptors covered the 3.5-point spread, and the 214 points made it OVER the posted total of 205.
Chris Bosh led the Raptors with 24 points and 18 rebounds for a double-double, while Andreas Bargnani poured in a team-high 27 points in the win.
David Lee had 28 points and 10 rebounds, as the Knicks creamed the Timberwolves 132-105 on Tuesday night.
New York covered as 6.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 208-point total set by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Toronto has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Toronto: 24-22 SU, 23-23 ATS
New York: 18-26 SU, 21-23 ATS
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 9-1
Before playing Indiana are 3-7
After playing Miami are 1-9
After a win are 7-3
New York most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 2-8
Before playing Washington are 7-3
After playing Minnesota are 3-7
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing New York
Toronto is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games at home
New York is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New York's last 15 games at home
Next up:
Toronto home to Indiana, Sunday, January 31
New York at Washington, Saturday, January 30
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
The Boston Celtics and the Orlando Magic will both be gunning for a victory on Thursday when they meet at Amway Arena.
Paul Pierce dropped 22 points to lead the Celtics over the Clippers 95-89 on Monday night.
Boston couldn't cover as 11.5-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 189-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Dwight Howard had 27 points, 15 boards, and six blocks for Orlando in its 99-94 loss to Memphis on Monday night.
Memphis cashed as 2-point home underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 205-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Boston has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Boston: 29-13 SU, 17-25 ATS
Orlando: 29-16 SU, 22-21-2 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Atlanta are 7-3
After playing LA Clippers are 4-6
After a win are 5-5
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Atlanta are 5-5
After playing Memphis are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
Orlando is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games
Next up:
Boston at Atlanta, Friday, January 29
Orlando home to Atlanta, Saturday, January 30
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
The Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns will both be gunning for a victory on Thursday when they meet at US Airways Center.
Dirk Nowitzki went for 28 points and eight rebounds to lift the Mavericks past the Bucks 108-107 on Tuesday night.
Dallas failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 197-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Steve Nash went for 23 points and nine assists for Phoenix in its 114-109 overtime loss to Charlotte on Tuesday night.
Charlotte cashed as 5.5-point road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 209.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Dallas has won 2 straight games.
Phoenix has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Dallas: 30-15 SU, 20-25 ATS
Phoenix: 26-21 SU, 23-23-1 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 7-3
Before playing Portland are 8-2
After playing Milwaukee are 8-2
After a win are 4-6
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Houston are 7-3
After playing Charlotte are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Phoenix is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Next up:
Dallas home to Portland, Saturday, January 30
Phoenix at Houston, Sunday, January 31
Boston (29-13, 17-25 ATS) at Orlando (29-16, 22-22-1 ATS)
Fresh off the heels of a three-game losing streak, the Celtics now look to make it three straight wins as they travel to Amway Arena to take on the Magic.
Boston lost three straight and five of seven (SU and ATS) through the middle of January but has rebounded to win back-to-back games at home, beating Portland 98-95 in overtime (but coming short as a 10½-point favorite), followed by Monday’s 95-89 win over the Clippers 95-89 (missing as an 11½-point chalk). The Celtics have failed to cash in five straight games, and they’ve been held to double-digits in scoring in all five.
Orlando had its three-game winning streak snapped in Memphis on Monday, losing 99-94 as a 1½-point road chalk. The Magic have been a much different team at home (16-4) than on the road (13-12), including winning three in a row (2-1 ATS) and nine of the last 11 at Amway Arena (6-5 ATS).
The road team has won three in a row in this series – all outright upsets – including Boston’s 86-77 Christmas Day victory in Florida, cashing in as a 5½-point road underdog. Back in November, the Magic went to Beantown and took an 85-78 win as quiet six-point underdogs. The Magic have cashed in three of the last four series clashes going back to last year’s Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series, with Orlando won in seven games.
Boston has failed to cash in four straight after a non-cover and it is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 after getting two days off, however the Celtics are on positive ATS runs of 48-21-1 as road ‘dogs and 38-17-1 as a ‘dog anywhere. Orlando is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 against Atlantic Division teams, but it is on pointspread slides of 1-5 on Thursdays, 2-5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 as a home favorite of less than five points.
The Celtics are on several “under” runs, including 4-1 overall, 19-7 on Thursday, 10-4 against the Southeast Division and 5-2 as ‘dogs of five points or fewer. The Magic are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 5-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 26-8 after a non-cover, 14-3 on Thursday and 5-0 when they get two days off. Finally, the “under” has been the play in six straight series clashes overall, and six of seven meetings in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dallas (30-15, 20-25 ATS) at Phoenix (26-21, 23-24 ATS)
The Mavericks head to US Airways Center in Phoenix to face the struggling Suns in this matchup of perennial Western Conference playoff powers.
Dallas has won four of its last five (2-3 ATS), including three of four on the highway (2-2 ATS). The Mavericks were home on Tuesday and edged the Bucks 108-107 but came up well short as 6½-point favorites. It was only the second time in their last 10 games the Mavs reached triple-digits in scoring
Phoenix has lost seven of nine (SU and ATS) overall, including Tuesday’s 114-109 overtime setback at home to the Bobcats, falling as a 5½-point favorite. The Suns haven’t been playing much defense lately, allowing 13 of the last 14 opponents to score more than 100 points. If the Suns don’t get huge numbers from Amare Stoudemire, they tend to struggle, as evidenced by their loss on Tuesday when Stoudemire managed just 12 points and five rebounds.
Dallas has won three straight (2-1 ATS) and five of six (4-2 ATS) in this rivalry, including a 102-101 home win back in December. However, the Mavs came up short as a 4½-point chalk in that contest, ending a nine-game stretch in which the SU had gone 8-0-1 ATS in this rivalry.
The Mavericks have cashed in four of five as underdogs, but they are on several negative ATS slides, including 2-7 overall, 5-21 on Thursday, 1-6 after a day off and 1-5 against Pacific Division squads. Phoenix has gotten the cash in seven of 10 against Southwest Division teams, but the Suns are in pointspread funks of 2-9 overall, 1-5 at home, 6-20 on Thursday and 1-6 as a favorite.
Dallas is on “under” runs of 7-0 on Thursday, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 against Pacific Division teams, but it is on “over” streaks of 12-4 as a road ‘dog and 4-1 against the Western Conference. Phoenix has stayed below the total in five of seven as a chalk and five of six at home, but it is on “over” runs of 10-2 against the Western Conference, 7-1 on Thursday and 4-0 against Southwest Division teams.
Finally, the “over” has been the play in four of the last five head-to-head meetings and five of the past six clashes in the desert.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Raptors at Knicks – The Raptors are 0-9 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since February 08, 2008 after playing the Heat. The Knicks are 9-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since March 07, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Knicks are 7-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since March 16, 2002 at home after a double digit win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Knicks are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since March 09, 1999 after a double digit win in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Celtics at Magic – The Magic are 8-0 ATS (16.2 ppg) since March 10, 2006 at home after a game in which they were whistled for at least 30 personal fouls. The Magic are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since November 23, 2007 at home off a road loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak.
Mavericks at Suns – The Mavericks are 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since March 06, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a game in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 07, 2004 on the road after playing as a home favorite when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since February 28, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Suns are 0-8 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since February 08, 2006 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they led at the half. The Suns are 0-7 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since March 19, 2003 with at most one day of rest off an overtime game as a home favorite.
NBA RoundUp For 1/28
by Dan Bebe
Raptors @ Knicks - New York by 3 with a total of 214. This one's got a couple situational angles worth exploring. First, and perhaps most importantly, the Knicks will be looking to get some sweet revenge on the Raptors, as the Raptors rolled into New York just under 2 weeks ago and beat the Knicks by 8 as a 2-point dog. So, looking at today's game, your first thought might be, "well, if they can do it once..." but not so fast. The Raptors were playing that game on 3 days rest, and they'll be playing tonight's contest on a back-to-back, where we've seen Toronto is less than perfect. Those crazy Canadians had to play a hard, drawn-out game against the Heat, truly using every tool in the bag to defeat the Heat and cover, and then immediately had to hit the road for this one. For those numbers guys out there, the Raptors are 2-8 ATS on the back end of these b2bs, 1-8 when the second game is played on the road (as is the case in this one). The Raptors defense also seems to suffer a great deal when they're tired, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Knicks really pour in an absurd number of points, especially in the second half. New York is in the final game of a current 5-game homestand, so I expect them to bring a nice effort, what with wanting to hit the road on a positive note, and the obvious revenge factor. The Raptors shot 53% in the last meeting between these teams and exploded out to a 24-point lead at halftime, so I expect the Knicks to remember these games, and I expect them to come out with a greater sense of purpose. Do not be surprised if Toronto takes an early lead, since teams on back-to-back often have some adrenaline going early, but once that wears off, Toronto should fade, much like their game in Milwaukee last week. I lean Knicks, and I lean Over.
Celtics @ Magic - Orlando by 3.5 with a total of 187.5. Another game with all kinds of wacky angles. These teams have played twice this year so far, and in each game the road team has been the victor. I actually believe that trend changes in this one. When Orlando beat Boston in the first meeting, that virtually ensured the second game would be won by Boston, in Orlando. Now, it's almost as though we have a clean slate. Looking at some recent games, it's tough to see either of these teams with a clear advantage, though I do find it interesting that the Boston has failed to cover 5 straight games...BUT...with Kevin Garnett getting stronger and healthier now, every game, the Celtics are going to get that road warrior fire back. I said it on the podcast, and I typed it in here, the Celtics will only go as far as Kevin Garnett can fuel them to go. He is the anger that makes them such a good road team, and here they are, back in Orlando, looking to win 2 straight over the Magic in the Magic's building. This is a tough one, that's for sure. Can we trust that the Celtics aren't getting too much credit just because KG is back? Can we know for sure that this line hasn't been preadjusted to account for the fact that Orlando is avenging that home loss to Boston back on Christmas Day? My take on this situation is that Orlando had one of the worst single quarters/halves in the history of their franchise in that Christmas Day game, leading to a 38-27 halftime lead for the Celtics, and I just don't see that happening again. This game might very well be low-scoring and a defensive struggle, but Orlando will at least break 30 points in each half of the game, and they'll shoot better than 33% from the field. I lean Orlando on the side, and I lean just slightly to the Under on the total, though I think this posted total is finally reflective of how these two teams play their games.
Dallas @ Phoenix - Phoenix by 2.5 with a total of 216. Dallas has forgotten how to play defense. Now, does that mean that Phoenix wins this game? I don't know for sure. I do know that I can't really trust the Suns right now, as they've covered just 1 of their last 7 games, including blowing a relatively large home lead over the Bobcats, letting Charlotte take that game to overtime, and then letting Charlotte win outright in OT. Yikes. The Suns still have the potential to win some games at home, but given Dallas's recent run of poor defense and the Suns recent run of poor everything, this is looking more and more like a side I want nothing to do with. Phoenix is on something of a revenge spot, as Dallas beat Phoenix by 1 back in early December, in Dallas, though Phoenix did cover the +4.5 spread they were graciously awarded in that one. My main concern with this game is that somehow, by setting this line at Phoenix -2.5, oddsmakers are either saying that there's a greater-than-7 home court adjustment between these two teams (which makes no sense, given Dallas can't cover a toast with butter at home), that Phoenix has moved up in the power rankings, compared to Dallas, or that they are almost "taking a position" that the Suns are the stronger bet in this game, and want to put a premium on them so that sharps don't get too succulent a line. I'm inclined to believe it's the latter of those three options, because watching these teams is definitely an indicator that Phoenix has not gotten better, they're tumbling like crazy. Because oddsmakers are giving us a hint of who is going to play the stronger game, I'm backing off my initial lean to Dallas. I'm not sure there's enough information here to make me like Phoenix, but if I had to lean in any direction, I'd go with the Suns to capitalize on a team that just isn't stopping anyone. It would then seem like if the Suns dictate the tempo, this game could go over, but I wonder if books are expecting a relatively weak performance from Dallas. I lean slightly, barely, maybe not even enough to call it a lean, to the Under.
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Celtics: The Celtics are finally starting to get healthy, as they have welcomed back F Kevin Garnett as of 2 games ago. No surprise, as both games he has played in thus far have helped the Celtics hold their opposition to worse than 40% field goal shooting. The Celtics stand at 29-13 SU, good enough for 2nd in the Eastern conference playoff chase and the 3rd best overall record in the NBA. Boston has the best road record in the NBA at 16-6 SU. While 16-6 SU, the Celtics are only 11-11 ATS on the road this season. Boston is 3-2 SU and ATS as the listed underdog on the road this season. Boston will again be looking to play hard defense against the Magic, as the Celtics held the Magic to a season low 33% shooting on Christmas Day earlier this season. The Celtics allow the 2nd fewest points in the NBA, at 93.7 PPG. All 5 starters average double digits in PTS this season, with F Paul Pierce leading the way with nearly 19 PPG this season.
Celtics are 0-5 ATS last 5 games overall.
Under is 6-0 last 6 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - F Brian Scalabrine (shoulder) is probable.
G Marquis Daniels (wrist) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 94 (Side of the Day)
Magic (-3.5, O/U 187): The rivalry between these two teams has only intensified over the past year, as both of these teams play so physically when matched up against each other. Orlando will clearly be looking for a better result than the last time, as the Magic lost at home by 9 points in scoring only 77 PTS. Orlando is 29-16 SU and 16-4 SU at home this season. The Magic are currently 4th in the Eastern conference playoff chase. While the Magic are 16-4 at home, they are also 11-9 ATS this season. The Magic have yet to win more than 2 games in a row at home ATS this season. Orlando is 1-2 ATS as a favorite of less than 6 PTS at home this season. Orlando has scored more than 100 PTS in 3 of their past 4 games, and for the season average 101.1 PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. 4 different Magic players average double digits in PTS, led by C Dwight Howard and his 17.4 PPG. Howard also leads the NBA in rebounding, with 13.3 RPG this year.
Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 90
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
Mavericks: Dallas is playing great basketball, as they are 30-15 SU which is the 5th best record in the entire NBA. Dallas currently stands 3rd in the Western Conference playoff chase. The Mavericks have proven to be a great road team this season as they are 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS on the season. The Mavericks are an impressive 7-3 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. Dallas is developing a reputation as a team that wins the close games, as they are 13-4 SU in games decided by 5 PTS or fewer this season. Another impressive streak is the fact that the Mavericks have won 10 consecutive games SU decided by exactly 1 point, tying the all time NBA record. F Dirk Nowitzki leads the Mavericks in scoring with 25.2 PPG, 7th best in the NBA. Nowitzki has been very efficient of late, having shot better than 50% from the field in 6 of his past 8 games. Dallas averages just over 100 PPG, while allowing 97.4 PPG this season.
Mavs are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as an underdog up to 4.5 points.
Over is 12-4 last 16 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 110
Suns (-2, O/U 216.5): In a stunning development, if the playoffs started today the Suns would not be apart of the festivities. Phoenix has lost 3 of their past 4 games SU to stand in 9th place in the Western Conference with a record of 26-21 SU. Phoenix continues to struggle on the defensive end, having allowed nearly 114 PPG in their past 9 games. Not surprisingly, the Suns only won 2 of those games SU. For the season, the Suns have the 2nd worst defense in the NBA, allowing 108 PPG. Thankfully the Suns have the most prolific offense in the league, averaging 109.9 PPG this season. 6 different Suns average double digits in PTS, with F Amar'e Stoudemire and his 20.6 PPG leading the way. The Suns are 17-6 SU and 12-11 ATS at home this season. Phoenix is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite less than 7 PTS this season. The Suns rely on the 3 pointer far too often, as they have attempted 64 of them in the past 2 games alone.
Suns are 1-5 ATS last 6 games as a home favorite.
Over is 10-2 last 12 vs. Western Conference.
Key Injuries - F Grant Hill (heel) is questionable.
G Leandro Barbosa (wrist) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 114 (OVER - Total of the Day)