Thursday Two-fer
By Kevin Rogers
Following a busy Wednesday night slate in the NBA, only two games take center stage on the Thursday card. The Bulls will be one of the last teams to take the court, while the Spurs, Nuggets, and Blazers already have one game under their belt.
Spurs at Bulls
Chicago made headlines during last season's playoffs, taking Boston to seven games in the first round before getting ousted. The Bulls were led by Rookie of the Year winner Derrick Rose, but last year's top pick is nursing an ankle injury, placing his status up in the air against the Spurs.
San Antonio is coming off a home victory against New Orleans, as the Spurs are in a money-burning spot Thursday. Gregg Popovich's squad was 5-14-1 ATS last season following a division contest, including a 1-6-1 ATS road mark. The Spurs have been a strong 'over' play the last three years on the road with no rest in November, finishing 'over' the total eight of ten times.
The Bulls held their own against the Western Conference last season at home, especially as underdogs. Chicago compiled a 5-3 SU/ATS mark, including victories over Dallas, Utah, Denver, and New Orleans.
The Spurs are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five meetings at the United Center, while covering seven of the last eight in Chicago. Five of the last six matchups have gone 'under' the total, with none of the previous four games accumulating more than 186 points.
Sportsbook.com has installed the Spurs as a 3½-point road favorite, with the total set at 193.
Nuggets at Blazers
These two Northwest division rivals split four meetings last season, with the home favorite winning and covering each time. Portland will try to unseat Denver as the division champions this season, despite both teams finishing with identical 54-28 marks.
The Blazers owned the Northwest last season at the Rose Garden, finishing 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS against division foes. Portland is coming off a home victory over short-handed Houston on Tuesday, which sets up for a nice spot Thursday. Nate McMillan's team put together a 16-9 ATS and 20-5 SU mark last season at home with one day off.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, are off a ten-point home win over the Jazz. Denver possesses a solid ATS mark coming off a division game, going 10-5-1 ATS after playing a Northwest division squad, while flying 'over' the total 11 times. George Karl's club is not accustomed to play high-scoring games with no rest on the road, finishing 'under' the total in 10 of 14 games last season.
The Blazers are listed as a seven-point home favorite, while the total sits at 198½, according to Sportsbook.com.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood
Even though it has been only two nights into the NBA season and there is a long way to go, I have some early observations:
The Sixers were looking to avenge last season's first-round loss to the Magic on Wednesday, but instead got blown out of Amway Arena. Philadelphia was outscored 41-20 in the second quarter, as Orlando shot lights out from beyond the arc (16-29).
The Cavs are 0-2 out of the gate. Time to panic? Not really, but there should be a bit of concern, especially falling at Toronto. It is a tough spot on a back-to-back for LeBron James and the Cavs, but we've seen teams struggle out of the gate and still get it together.
On the flip side, the Celtics look rejuvenated after dismantling the Bobcats at home to improve to 2-0. How bad was it for Charlotte? In the third quarter, the C's went on a 21-2 run, while the Bobcats had made only 13 field goals through the first 32 minutes of the game. Ouch!
The Celtics are one of two clubs owning 2-0 ATS marks so far. The other...the Clippers, who have covered in defeats to the Lakers and Suns.
vegasinsider.com
San Antonio (1-0 SU and ATS) at Chicago (0-0 SU and ATS)
The Bulls take the court for the first time since their thrilling seven-game, opening-round playoff series against Boston as they host Tim Duncan and the Spurs at the United Center.
Chicago finished just 41-41 last year (42-39-1 ATS), but it was good enough for a second-place finish in the Central Division – 25 games behind Cleveland – and return trip to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. Despite being an overwhelming underdog, the Bulls took Boston to the limit in the first round, going 3-1 in overtime games before eventually falling 109-99 as a 5½-point road underdog in the decisive Game 7. Chicago qualified for the postseason courtesy of a 12-4 SU run to close the regular season.
San Antonio opened the season with Wednesday’s impressive 113-96 rout of the Hornets, easily cashing as a 9½-point home favorite. Tony Parker (17 points) and Manu Ginobili (16) were among six players to score in double figures for the Spurs, who have now won 10 of their last 14 regular-season games, including the last five in a row. However, including the playoffs, the Spurs are still in an 8-15 ATS slump.
The Spurs have swept the season series from Chicago each of the last two years, going 4-0 SU and ATS (all as a favorite). The road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head meetings, with San Antonio cashing in seven of its last eight trips to Chicago. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last eight clashes.
San Antonio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 overall (2-5 ATS last seven) and 7-13 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite, but it has covered in seven of its last 10 on the second night of a back-to-back situation. Chicago failed to cover in four of its final six regular-season games last year, but the Bulls went 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 contests versus the Western Conference last season, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against Southwest Division foes, 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home pup.
The Spurs have topped the total in six of seven overall, but the under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 against the Central Division, 4-1 in their last five when playing on no rest and 6-2 in their last eight as a road chalk. For Chicago, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall (all as an underdog) going back to the playoff series against Boston, 4-1 against the Southwest Division, 7-3 against the Western Conference and 4-1 as a home ‘dog, but five of the Bulls’ last seven on Thursday have stayed low.
Finally, not only has San Antonio won and covered four straight meetings with Chicago, but all stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Denver (1-0 SU and ATS) at Portland (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Blazers look to open a season with consecutive wins for the first time since 2004-05 when they welcome the rival Nuggets to the Rose Garden for a Northwest Division clash.
Denver tipped off its 2009-10 campaign with Wednesday’s 114-105 come-from-behind home win over the Jazz, covering as a 5 ½-point favorite. Carmelo Anthony had a game-high 30 points and Chauncey Billups chipped in 25 for the Nuggets, who improved to 15-3 in their last 18 regular-season games (11-7 ATS). However, they’re just 4-3 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch, including a 104-76 loss at Portland as an 8½-point underdog in a meaningless regular-season finale.
Portland pounced on the Rockets in its opener Tuesday, jumping out to a 75-56 lead after three quarters and cruising to a 96-87 victory, barely covering as an 8½-point home favorite. Four Blazers players scored in double figures, with Travis Outlaw pouring in a game-high 23 points and star guard Brandon Roy chipping in 20 points, five boards and five assists. The Blazers have won seven straight regular-season games (6-1 ATS) and 11 of their last 12 (10-2 ATS).
Including Portland’s blowout home win in the regular-season finale, the home team (and favorite) won and covered all four Blazers-Nuggets battles in 2008-09. Still, Denver has owned this rivalry from a pointspread perspective, going 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 series clashes, including 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 at the Rose Garden.
Including the playoffs, Denver sports positive pointspread surges of 22-7 overall, 21-6 against the Western Conference, 6-1 on the road (all as an underdog) and 4-1 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on a 14-3 ATS run in the regular season, cashing in seven of their last eight at home. Portland is also on pointspread tears of 14-4 as a favorite, 8-2 as a home chalk, 4-0 against the Northwest Division, 4-1 versus Western Conference foes and 5-1 when playing on one day of rest, but it has failed to cash in nine of 13 on Thursday.
Denver is on “under” runs of 10-3 on the road (all as a ‘dog), 20-8 when catching points overall, and 6-2 when playing on back-to-back nights, but the over is 12-4 in its last 16 on Thursday. For Portland, the under is on stretches of 5-0 overall (playoffs included), 4-0 when playing on one day of rest and 12-3 against Northwest Division rivals. Lastly, all four of last year’s clashes between these teams stayed low, and the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Defense-First
By SportsPic
In one of only two scheduled for the hardwood Thursday consider the Portland Trail Blazers when they host Northwest Division rival Denver Nuggets. Blazers sporting one of the leagues best home records last year at 35-7 with a profitable 28-14 mark at the betting window opened the campaign at the Rose Garden with a 96-87 win over Houston Rockets cashing as 8.5 point favorites. Brandon Roy and Travis Outlaw lead Blazers with a combined 43 points in the victory but defense once again the teams emphasis played a huge part as Rockets hit a lowly 37% from the field, 27.8% from long range. Blazers have been 'Money in the Bank' of late tightening defensive screws. They're a solid 30-10 at the cash window holding teams to less than 95 points including 18-7 ATS at the Rose Garden. Adding fuel, Portland won and cashed both meetings at home last year allowing Denver just 92 and 76 points. Portland also catches Denver in back-2-back's a situation that has seen Nuggets average 93.6 PPG in going 3-8 against-the-number. On final Portland tid-bit, with the opening win on Tuesday Blazers are now 7-0 (6-1 ATS) since the '06-07 campaign in it's the first two home games of the season.