Thursday's Best NBA Bets
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-6.5, 183.5)
After the Big Three came together in South Beach, lots of talking heads wondered whether the Heat could contest the best regular-season record in NBA history that the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls set with 72 wins. That speculation was probably premature but at any rate, Miami wasn’t supposed to lose many games this season.
Especially not games in which they were up by 21 points in the third quarter while pegged as 9-point favorites. But that’s exactly what happened to the Heat Tuesday night when they dropped a 116-114 decision in overtime to the Utah Jazz.
"It hurts. It hurts to take time. No one wants to go through the process,” Dwyane Wade told reporters. “But it's life. Everyone has to go through the process. No question, we understand that we're a very good defensive team. We understand that our offense is coming along. And sometimes you take those things for granted."
Don’t count on that happening two games in a row, especially against the Boston Celtics who took the first meeting between the two clubs 88-80. Look for Miami to make a statement here.
Pick: Heat
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (+3, 211)
Much like the Heat, the Los Angeles Lakers are also looking to bounce back from a disappointing effort in their last game.
The only difference here is that the Lakers were able to pull out a 99-94 win over the terrible Minnesota Timberwolves as 16.5-point favorites to improve to 8-0 straight up on the year. Los Angeles was outrebounded 54-42 by Minnesota and shot 44.9 percent from the floor while turning the ball over 18 times.
"The way we played tonight was irresponsible and it was reckless and it was disrespectful," point guard Derek Fisher told reporters Tuesday. "I can't get any clearer than that. There was an air of complacency, of arrogance, of 'We don't have to play as hard as the other team to win' that I didn't like tonight."
The Lakers have dropped two of their last three against the spread and Tuesday’s effort isn’t good news for the Denver Nuggets, who have lost two straight and four of their last five games against the number.
Kobe Bryant downplayed Tuesday’s close call the next day at practice, but you have to expect a much better showing from Los Angeles against Denver. This is also the shortest line the Lakers have seen all season.
Pick: Lakers
NBA Odds: Heat hope to burn Boston
By: Michael Robinson
The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat have an early rematch when their intense rivalry continues in the Sunshine State on Thursday night. Both teams are coming off losses.
Miami is 5-3 straight-up and 4-4 against the spread. That wasn’t the start everyone expected with free agents LeBron James and Chris Bosh joining holdover Dwyane Wade in one of the most hyped team in years.
The oddsmakers bought into the publicity, with the Heat immediately made the title favorite and a win total around 62. The title odds have tightened at most sportsbooks. Bodog.com has Miami (9/5) just slightly ahead of the 8-0 defending champion Los Angeles Lakers (12/5). Boston is third at 15/2.
The Heat are quickly learning it takes time to develop chemistry with a complete roster makeover. They’re also getting their opponents’ best effort every night as teams want to beat this star-studded cast.
The latest case in point came Tuesday night against the Jazz. Miami had a 19-point halftime lead at home over Utah and an eight-point cushion with 37 seconds left. However, a furious rally led by Paul Millsap (46 total points) sent the game into overtime, with Utah getting a shocking 116-114 win.
The Heat also lost 96-93 last Friday at a surprisingly good New Orleans team (7-0). Miami is 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) in its last three games after a very good stretch (4-0 SU and ATS) when it outscored its opponents by an average of 22.8 PPG.
Miami certainly has the talent to become elite, but questions remain. The first is whether James is happy being the main distributor, shooting 15 shots per game compared to Wade’s 17.3. James is averaging 8.6 assists per game, with starting point guard Carlos Arroyo just 2.0.
Power forward Chris Bosh has seen his scoring average (14.8 PPG) plummet after 24 PPG with Toronto last year. The supporting cast is another issue. They know their role is only to aid the ‘Three Kings,’ making their shot attempts akin to scraps at a dinner table. The bench will be improved when shooter Mike Miller (thumb injury) returns in January.
Boston (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) has a much more stable roster. The ‘Big 3’ of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett are out to make one more title run, buoyed by the young legs of Rajon Rondo (NBA assist leader at 14.8 per game).
The Celtics are 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS on their current four-game trip. They beat Oklahoma City 92-83 on Sunday as 2 ½-point dogs before losing down the stretch in Dallas on Monday (89-87 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs). The ‘under’ went 2-0.
The old Celtics legs are happy to have a couple days off. They’re also having depth issues with center Shaquille O’Neal (shin) missing the last five games and Jermaine O’Neal (knee) limited to just 11 minutes versus the Mavs. Shaq is likely to return Thursday and Jermaine is questionable.
The O’Neal tandem is important with starting center Kendrick Perkins (torn ACL) out until February. Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis is a wide-body off the bench who can play the middle, but he really lacks height at a generously listed 6-foot-9.
This is a revenge game for Miami after losing opening night in Boston, 88-80 as one-point favorites. The Heat made a second-half charge after scoring just 30 points in the first half. Wade shot just 4-of-16 after missing most of the preseason with a hamstring issue.
Expect a big game for Wade on Thursday as he’ll also be thinking about last year’s first-round playoff exit to Boston (4-1 in games).
Tip-off from AmericanAirlines Arena is 5 p.m. (PT). TNT will have the broadcast right before the Lakers and Denver Nuggets.
NBA RoundUp For 11/11
By Dan Bebe
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat (-6.5) with a total of 183.5
Oh boy...here we go. The rematch of the opening night mayhem in Boston. Is there some revenge? Definitely, but I still believe we'll get the Celtics best punch against a team that feels has garnered undeserved accolades. That makes this side very, very tough to break down. Both teams are highly motivated, and you know LeBron is going to try to do too much, which, to some degree, plays into the Celtics' defensive scheme. D-Wade has, on the other hand, had some success against the Boston defense, so we'll see how Miami approaches this game. Boston lost in a close game in Dallas 3 days ago, so they're well rested, and that's often a huge key to the Celtics' success. Miami is coming off that stinging OT loss to the Jazz, courtesy of Paul Millsap's insane night. Miami should win this game - they'll knock down some shots at home, and they sure as hell won't threaten the franchise low for points, a dubious mark that Miami nearly grabbed in their opening night loss in Boston. Put all of that together, and I get the weird feeling that these teams actually score a few points early in the game. The defenses of both teams were on full display on opening night, and the teams combined to score just 168 points. But in a closer game, and in a game where we'll go ahead and assume Miami will shoot a bit better than the 36.5% they logged in that first one...and the teams combined to make just 34 free throws and turn the ball over 35 times...well, literally nothing went right for points to be scored. I think this line is a little overadjusted, lean to the OVER. On the side, I think folks might read too much into that opening night game, and Boston is going to come out with another solid effort - lean to the CELTICS.
Golden State Warriors @ Chicago Bulls with a total of N/A
Beware the schedule-makers. Golden State plays its 4th in 5 nights here in Chicago, also it's 5th in 7 nights, if you include the final game of their recently-completed homestand. Amazingly, this isn't the final game of the road trip! Golden State looks vastly improved this year, but this type of scheduling isn't doing them any services. The Bulls are rested, coming off a nice home win over the Nuggets back on Monday, and the Warriors still have one more game on the roadie, in Milwaukee, on Saturday. Brutal. And it's especially tough on a team that has a shooting guard playing through a severe back sprain, and a point guard playing through an ankle injury. Golden State needs healthy bodies (as always), and when everyone starts to get worn down and just wants a day off, that's when bad things happen. This line will likely be pretty high, considering the scheduling, somewhere in the neighborhood of 9, but if they're ready for the Warriors' attempts to play streetball, Chicago could very well counter that, and win this game by 15+. Unless the Warriors lose by 30 to the Knicks, lean to the BULLS and to the UNDER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-3) @ Denver Nuggets with a total of 210
This game sets up very interestingly, especially on the Denver side. The Nuggets return home off one of the most embarrassing losses of the Carmelo-era, falling by 31 to the Indiana Pacers. Still, it was their 4th game in 5 nights, the last game of a road trip, and you just knew Denver would start to think about the Lakeshow coming to town. Well, here they are. The Lakers are coming off a rather pedestrian effort against the Wolves, though it was enough to win. And quietly, the Lakers have looked a little lackadaisical against 2 of their last 3 opponents. Yes, they turned it on for the Blazers, but will they be able to ratchet up the gears on the road in a hostile environment, as easily as they did at home? Are we starting to see the mid-season Lakers, a team that will be happy to just cruise along, winning a ton of games on talent? It's possible. As far as Denver goes, I might normally be inclined to look at the visitor in a spot like this, since the Nuggets are set to play their first home game off a 4-game roadie, but not here. The awful loss to end that trip wipes out any sluggishness, and the TNT/Lakers combination should ensure that Melo gets a stage to show his wares, and someone like J.R. Smith should, perhaps, have his first truly good game of the year. Also, are the Lakers really 6 points better than the Nuggets on a neutral court? That's a big line, considering LA was only laying 7 to Portland at home, and the Blazers were on a back-to-back! Something is amiss. Lean to DENVER and to the UNDER.
NBA Handicapping Picks: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
By: Jeff Mattingly
Boston dropped a 89-87 road decision to the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night after coming back from a 14-point deficit in its fifth game in seven nights. “We pretty much got the shots we wanted,” said head coach Doc Rivers. “They just didn’t go in. Everything was short-armed and short-rimmed.” The Celtics offense has managed to top the 100-point scoring barrier four times this season, winning each of those games, but that will be very tough to reach considering they managed 88 points in a season-opening victory over the Heat. The team already has a lengthy injury report with Kendrick Perkins, while Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal are listed as day-to-day. Boston is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
The Celtics are led offensively by forward Paul Pierce’s 19.6 points per game and point guard Rajon Rondo dishing out 14.8 assists. Pierce was happy with Rondo stepping up to attempt a big shot at the end of the Dallas game, as team’s often leave him open outside the arc. “I love the shot he took, I told him after the game,” he commented. “I’ll take that shot from him every time.” In the first meeting of the season, the former Kentucky Wildcats’ point guard delivered a game-high 17 assists, as the squad had 25 assists on 32 field goals on the night.
Miami enters Thursday night’s rematch with a 5-3 record, a mark that many experts are shocked about due to the talented trio in South Beach. “We still have a way to go,” said LeBron James. Even the opposing coach knows that championship teams are built over night. “It’s just going to take time,” said Rivers. “They’re going to have great nights and then they’re going to have nights where they struggle.” The Heat were unable to hold a 22-point lead in a 116-114 overtime loss to the Utah Jazz at home, which is even more amazing due to a triple-double by James and 39 points by guard Dwyane Wade. Miami stands at 4-4 ATS this season and 0-1 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.
The Heat have dished out 119 assists over their past five games, a stat that many are impressed by due the unfamiliarity of the players. Leading the charge in that category is James, becoming just the fourth player in franchise history to record seven straight games with at least seven assists. Wade has taken ownership of being the scorer, leading the team in that category in the past four games. Teams around the league that possess a top-flight point guard should remain confident when facing the Heat, dishing out assists at an alarming rate.
Bettors are likely to back the Celtics due to their 6-0 ATS mark when playing on two days rest, while the Heat are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0 to 10.5 points.
Lakers draw 3-point chalk line at Nuggets
By: Barry Daniels
The second half of Thursday night’s TNT pro basketball doubleheader will be must-see TV for those tuning in to watch the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers attempt to start the campaign with a perfect 9-0 record. Standing in the Lakers’ way will be a Denver Nuggets club that defeated the Lakers in three of four matchups last season.
Pete Korner, who makes the NBA betting line for the majority of Nevada sports books as owner of the Sports Club, opened the Lakers as three-point road favorites in his overnight line. The ‘total’ was set at 214 points.
Though the Lakers have had a relatively easy schedule to begin the season, it’s still very impressive to begin the campaign with an 8-0 record after last season’s grueling run to the NBA title.
Six of the Lakers’ first eight opponents have been against teams that had a record below .500 last season. That includes games against Minnesota (15-67), Sacramento (25-57) and Golden State (26-56). The Lakers also played six of those first eight games at Staples Center.
Phil Jackson’s troops raised their ledger to 8-0 during Tuesday’s 99-94 victory against Minnesota. But the Lakers didn’t come close to covering as 16 ½-point home favorites, which lowered their spread record to 5-3.
Though the combined 193 points dipped well ‘under’ the 216-point closing total, the ‘over’ is still 5-3 in the Lakers’ first eight contests. Tuesday’s offensive output marked the first time the Lakers failed to register triple digits this season.
Despite Tuesday’s less-than-impressive offensive showing, the Lakers are still averaging a league-best 112.1 points per game. That lofty mark has been helped by a league-best 47.4 percent shooting from beyond the three-point arc. Los Angeles is ranked 12th on defense, allowing 99.6 points per outing.
The Lakers seemed to play down to their competition against a lowly Minnesota squad that saw its record fall to 1-7. The Lakers held the Timberwolves to just 38 percent shooting from the field and also forced 25 turnovers, which resulted in 21 Lakers points.
Minnesota out-scored the Lakers in the paint (44-40) and out-rebounded them, 54-42. That included a career-high 24 boards from UCLA product Kevin Love. Ironically, the Lakers and T’Wolves entered the contest tied for the league lead in rebounding at 48.7 boards per game.
Kobe Bryant helped the Lakers overcome a third-quarter deficit with his game-high 33 points. Pau Gasol had just eight points and three rebounds in the first half after an impressive triple-double against Portland two nights earlier. He finished with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
Denver saw its record drop to 4-4 SU and 3-4-1 ATS after suffering an embarrassing 144-113 setback in Tuesday’s contest at Indiana. It was Denver’s third game in four nights, all on the road.
The Nuggets actually closed as one-point road favorites against the Pacers, with the combined 257 points soaring ‘over’ the 209 ½-point closing total. Nevertheless, the ‘under’ is 6-2 in Denver’s first eight contests.
Denver’s defense allowed the Pacers to make their first 20 shots of the third quarter. Indiana missed out on a perfect period when Josh McRoberts was off on a 26-footer with 1.9 seconds left. The Nuggets entered the final stanza trailing, 113-76.
Ty Lawson led Denver with 19 points and Arron Afflalo added 17. Carmelo Anthony scored 13 points on 5-for-15 shooting.
Indiana shot 52 percent from the field in the first half to take a 59-49 lead at the break, but that was just the beginning. The Pacers had 17 assists in the record-setting third quarter.
Denver’s poor showing dropped the club’s defensive ranking to 17th, as George Karl’s crew is allowing 102.4 point per game. The Nuggets are scoring 104.0 points per contest, which ranks 10th.
The Nuggets captured the season series against the Lakers last season, 3-1, with the ‘under’ also going 3-1. The Nuggets had success against the Lakers in both home games, notching wins of 98-96 and 105-79.
The ‘under’ is 13-4 in the Nuggets’ last 17 series meetings against the Lakers and 8-2 in the last 10 matchups in Denver.
It is interesting to note that Denver is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 outings off a loss of 10 points or more.
The Lakers and Nuggets are set to tip on TNT at 7:30 p.m. PT Thursday following the Heat, Celtics game from Miami.
The Lakers will have two days of rest before returning home for a Sunday clash against the Phoenix Suns. Denver won’t play until next Monday when they travel to the desert for a match with those same Suns.