Thursday's Best NBA Bets
Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic (-9, 203)
The Orlando Magic are expected to welcome J.J. Redick back to the lineup on Thursday after an MRI revealed no structural damage in his aching back. Magic supporters are hoping that after he sat out Monday’s game and didn’t practice Tuesday that some time away from the court helped him find his jumper.
The Magic’s normally lethal outside shooter is hitting just 27 percent of his shots from the floor and only 12 percent of his trey efforts while averaging 4.4 points per game.
“I don’t think there’s any question, he’s at a very high frustration level with his shooting,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “You can physically see it when he misses open shots and things like that, but the thing's the same, just go out and play hard, and play with great energy and enthusiasm, and try to relax a little bit on the offensive end of the floor.”
It’s not just Redick. Rashard Lewis, Chris Duhon and Ryan Anderson have struggled early this year too, though Orlando has won two straight with both checking in under the posted total. However, the club is only 3-7 against the spread on the year and Phoenix putting up a bunch of points lately.
Pick: Phoenix
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3, 203)
Brandon Roy underwent an MRI on his injured left knee today, leaving the Portland Trail Blazers holding their collective breath as they wait for the results.
Roy limped off the court during Portland’s 107-87 loss to the New Orleans Hornets over the weekend and didn’t play in Monday’s win over Memphis. However, for one night at least, the Blazers had a suitable replacement for their superstar.
Wesley Matthews scored a career-high 30 points to lead Portland to a 100-99 as a 1-point favorite.
"I thought tonight he let the offense come to him," Blazers head coach Nate McMillan told reporters of Matthews. "I just thought he brought energy to the floor tonight. The reason for him going in that line-up was to see if he can bring that toughness on the defensive end of the floor.”
Nice game for Matthews, but can he keep it going? Probably, for one game at least against an awful Denver defense that’s giving up more than 104 points a night.
Pick: Trail Blazers
Magic and Suns tip TNT Thursday doubleheader
By: Barry Daniels
The Phoenix Suns could be a little weary Thursday when they travel to Orlando to play the Magic during the first half of a TNT doubleheader. The Suns will be coming off a Wednesday contest in Miami against the Heat, while Orlando has been off since Monday.
Playing the Magic with plenty of rest is a challenge for any NBA team. But meeting them after a tough road game against Miami the night before could prove too much for a Suns team that relies on its legs to score fast-break points.
Pete Korner, who makes the betting numbers for the majority of Nevada sports books as owner of Sports Club, has opened Orlando as a nine-point home favorite on his overnight NBA lines. The total is set at 207 points.
Thursday’s game against Orlando will be the Suns’ second stop on a four-game road excursion. Phoenix will travel to Charlotte for a Saturday contest against the Bobcats before concluding the trip next Monday in Houston against the Rockets.
Prior to Wednesday’s meeting in Miami, Phoenix was riding a three-game winning streak that raised the club’s record to 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS.
Those three wins occurred during a four day span, so the Suns seem to be playing games in bunches. The Suns have already played three sets of back-to-back games this season, and have gone 1-2 both SU and ATS in the second game during those situations.
The historically high-scoring Suns have registered triple-digits in eight of their first 10 games, helping the team rank third in the league offensively with a 108.2 points per game average.
The Suns rank fifth in both field goal percentage (47.6) and three-point shooting (39.8 percent), but are just 23rd in free-throw percentage (73.3).
Defense continues to be a problem for the Suns. Alvin Gentry’s troops are allowing a bloated 106.6 points per game, which ranks 29th in the 30-team league. They do rank dead last in rebounding, averaging just 46.8 boards per game.
An injury to Robin Lopez certainly won’t help the club’s rebounding woes. The seven-foot, 255-pound center will be out until at least mid-December with a sprained left knee.
Orlando enters this contest by winning six of its last eight games, including the last two in a row. The recent surge has lifted the squad’s ledger to 7-3. However, the Magic have failed to cover the spread in seven of their first 10 efforts.
That was not the case in Orlando’s most recent outing, which was Monday’s 89-72 victory against Memphis as an 8 ½-point home favorite.
The combined 161 points dipped well below the 200 ½-point closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 5-4-1 in Orlando’s first 10 encounters. However, the ‘over’ is 5-2-1 in its last 10 home games dating to last season.
Vince Carter collected 19 points to lead the offense against Memphis, while center Dwight Howard had 18 points and 14 rebounds. Jameer Nelson added 11 points and nine assists from his point guard position.
Statistically, the Magic are almost completely opposite of the Suns. Orlando ranks second in the league defensively by allowing just 90.8 points per game. The squad is also third in rebounding, hauling down 44.3 boards per outings.
Offense is where the Magic are struggling, as they rank 22nd with a 97.9 points per game average. Most of the offensive woes are occurring at the free throw line where Orlando is shooting a league-worst 66.8 percent.
The Suns and Magic split the two-game series last season, with each squad winning on its home court.
The game in Orlando saw the Magic register a lopsided 122-100 victory as a 7 ½-point favorite. The combined 222 points skipped above the 218-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to go 9-4 in the last 13 series meetings.
Orlando will leave town for a two-game road swing after this game against the Suns. They start the trip with a Saturday contest in Indiana against the Pacers before traveling to San Antonio for a Tuesday meeting with the Spurs.
Nuggets battle injury-riddled Trail Blazers
By: Adam Markowitz
Coming into play on Wednesday night, the Northwest Division standings couldn't possibly get any tighter. There is only one game separating first place and fourth place at this point.
The teams currently in third and fourth hook up in the Rockies in NBA betting action on Thursday night, as the Denver Nuggets duke it out with the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Nuggets have been up and down all season long and just really haven't gotten into a flow quite yet. The offense is doing its job, averaging 105.8 PPG, but modest shooting percentages have really given opposing teams some nights where they can just sneak up on Denver. It has already lost twice outright this year as NBA favorites.
Amazingly, the one man that there are no complaints about is F Carmelo Anthony. Anthony, who still demands to get traded and refuses to talk about a contract extension with the Nuggets, has been their most consistent player. He is averaging 24.6 PPG and 9.4 RPG, and he is one of three players in the regular rotation that is shooting better than 47 percent from the field.
Al Harrington is coming off of a pair of great seasons with the New York Knicks, but things really haven't jived for him yet in Denver. He is scoring just 14.5 PPG and is pulling in just 5.6 RPG. Part of his problem has been staying out of foul trouble, as 43 fouls in 11 games is leaving him with just 28 minutes on the average night.
As always when these two teams meet up, it will be Denver that is trying to push the tempo and Portland that is trying to slow it down.
Knee and ankle injuries on the Blazers are claiming a number of players right now that might force the game to an even slower pace than normal if they have their way. The biggest problem right now is G Brandon Roy, who hasn't really played a regular game since last Friday's loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Since that point, he has been dealing with a knee injury that has kept him in and out of the lineup.
Marcus Camby and Joel Przybilla are both questionable as well with an ankle injury and knee injury respectively. For a team that is already missing C Greg Oden for the next few weeks at minimum, losing all of these big men could be a real catastrophe.
Wesley Matthews, a second year man out of Marquette, has stepped up in Roy's absence. He netted 30 points in a narrow 100-99 win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday night. LaMarcus Aldridge also poured in 23 points in his second best scoring game of the campaign.
The Nuggs are historically a terrible road team, especially of late. They are just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 road games. To make matters worse, both the home team and the favorite are 7-1 ATS in the last eight clashes in this series.
This is the first meeting of these Northwest Division foes this year. Denver scored a 3-1 victory last season in the series, including stealing a 97-94 victory as 7½-point NBA betting favorites here at the Rose Garden in the first meeting of the season.
The three most recent meetings have also exceeded the 'total.'
NBA RoundUp for 11/18
by Dan Bebe
Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers (-8.5) with a total of 200
I feel like I could just cut and paste every writeup so far this year on the Clippers. Total disaster of a team - Blake Griffin is a hyper-athletic young player, but teams are starting to send him to the line, where he's been hit-or-miss...mostly miss. Besides Griffin, the Clippers are pretty banged up, and Vinny Del Negro seems to have lost these guys, already. Now, that being said, 8.5 points is quite a large number, considering the Pacers don't play much in the way of defense, and Darren Collison, perhaps the team's second best defensive player, is day-to-day. So, without Collison, it's going to be a matter of whether the Pacers can get 5 more stops than the Clippers. It sounds easy enough, but I want no part of it. Staying within 8 or 9 points just takes a full-game effort, even from a bad team, so I'll take it right here - if the Clippers get blown out in Minnesota on Wednesday, strongly consider CLIPS for Thursday, otherwise, probably just leave it alone. As far as the total goes, I find it hard to believe anyone takes defense that seriously, so I'm inclined to lean over, but can the Clippers even break 90 points? Eh, tiny lean to the OVER.
Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic (-9) with a total of 203
The angles on this game are a little less convoluted than the ones for the Clips/Pacers game, above. Simply put, if Orlando is AWAKE, they will try to slow this game down and use their superior size to squash the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing the second game of a difficult Florida back-to-back, and what we've seen so far this year is that Phoenix's offense suffers when their legs aren't quite 100%. A jump-shooting, running team, the Suns need full energy to win, so it's not that surprising that their numbers drop a tad in fatigue spots. Orlando, meanwhile, got off to a weird start to the year, and I'd argue are having some issues with focus. They are coming off, perhaps, their best defensive game of the season, so I wonder if Orlando is going to keep that focus, or slip back into the lull that allowed Toronto to beat them, and then nearly let Jersey sneak out a win, too. I have to believe, with this game being the early TNT game, Orlando will be awake and looking to put the squeeze on the smaller Suns. I think the side is pretty accurate here, though a slight lean to ORLANDO, and I think that total looks low for a reason, and I lean to the UNDER.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers (-3) with a total of 203
I have to say, when I first looked at this game, I wanted to just jump all over the Trailblazers, but something is nagging at me, and I think it's their team defense. Aside from locking down on the hapless Pistons, the Blazers have been giving up points in hefty bunches, and that's just not how they're going to win games. They allowed 121 to the Lakers, 110 to the Thunder, 107 to the Hornets, and 99 to the Grizzlies, in a game they won. The Blazers aren't going to beat the Nuggets with offense. In fact, playing offense is what the Nuggets actually enjoy. It's that darn defense that gets them all knotted up. So, where does that leave us? I'd say, with a darn difficult high-profile game to cap. The Nuggets' heart is certainly in question, and now J.R. Smith has basically doghouse'd his way right out of the rotation. So, on top of all the injuries to both teams, there's turmoil. The Blazers are the hardier team, if it comes down to that, and Denver really looks like they don't care to play a full 48 minutes. It's tough to trust a team that takes 12-24 minutes off every game, and that, to me, is the difference. However, that presupposes Portland plays defense for a quarter or two...yikes. Lean to the BLAZERS and the UNDER, because if it's going over the total, Portland's going to struggle. This is sort of correlated, in a sick way.
NBA Betting Preview: Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
By: Jeff Mattingly
Denver came away with a 120-118 home win versus the New York Knicks last time out despite shooting just 66 percent from the charity stripe. The Nuggets did attempt a season-high 47 free throws and star forward Carmelo Anthony scored 6 points and pulled down nine rebounds, giving him 44 boards in his last three games. “Melo has been great,” said head coach George Karl. “He’s been the most professional I’ve ever seen him, more serious than I’ve ever seen him and the guy’s playing at an All-Star level.” Denver has fared extremely well in Portland in recent years, producing a 9-7 record at the Rose Garden since the 2002-03 season. The team is 3-3 ATS on the road this season and 31-24 ATS as an underdog over the last three years.
The Nuggets have posted an impressive 21-7 overall mark against the Trail Blazers since 2003-04, but five of the Blazers’ seven wins have come in the past three seasons. Denver will need to play a better fourth quarter to pull off a road victory tonight, coming after almost blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead to the Knicks at home on Tuesday. The squad did score a season-high 120 points versus New York and improved to 6-2 this season when scoring 100-plus points.
Portland was able to overcome not having star guard Brandon Roy in its last contest, a 100-99 road win over the Memphis Grizzlies, but may have a tougher time tonight. He continues to sit out with a sore left knee and members of the team will have to step it up and replace his 18.1 points per game. “We all had to step up,” said Wesley Matthews. “I’m part of a team so I’m just fulfilling my duty as a teammate to step up like everyone else did tonight.” He scored a career-high 30 points in the contest and received help from LaMarcus Aldridge pitching in with 23 points, but that is likely to drop off with the forward managing to score just 10.9 points in eight games versus the Nuggets. The team is 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
The Trail Blazers dropped the season series, 3-1, versus the Nuggets last year mainly due to getting outscored 54-25 in fastbreak points. Portland will need to concentrate fully on the defensive end tonight, as the team is a perfect 7-0 when holding teams to fewer than 100 points. The next two games will tell a lot about this team and forward Marcus Camby is ready. “Denver is a very tough team and Utah has been playing just great ball,” he commented. “These next two games are tough, but we’ll use this win over Memphis as momentum.”
Bettors will likely lay the Nuggets due to their 1-9-2 ATS mark versus teams with a winning home record, while the Blazers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win.
NBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic
By: Jeff Mattingly
Phoenix really didn’t have a chance in a 123-96 blowout loss in Miami last night, entering the contest on fumes after beating the Lakers and Nuggets on back-to-back nights. “We just never came close to guarding Chris Bosh,” said head coach Alvin Gentry. The Suns interior defense allowed Bosh to break out of an early-season funk with 35 points. Offensively, the team managed to hit just 5-of-19 3-point shots, something that must improve to have a chance in tonight’s contest. Phoenix has won nine of the last 12 meetings, but are concerned that point guard Steve Nash will miss the second game of a back-to-back due to a sore groin. “I kind of took a little risk,” said Nash. “It didn’t feel great, but I don’t think I did serious damage to it.”
The Suns are 6-5 overall and 1-1 versus the Eastern Conference this year. Phoenix had dropped two-straight games in Orlando, a place where they have not collected a victory since November 10, 2007. The squad does have a 28-13 all-time record against the Magic, mainly due to a dominating 16-5 mark in the Valley of the Sun. Bench play will be key due to the grueling early-season schedule this team has faced, as the reserves have nearly doubled their opponents this season with 38.9 points per game compared to 23.7.
Orlando has struggled from long-distance this season and will likely look to take advantage of its rebounding edge in this Thursday night contest. The Magic are the third-best rebounding team in the league, while the Suns are allowing opponents to average an NBA-tying 46.4 rebounds per game. “History tells you that they can shoot the ball and we can’t panic over 10 games,” said head coach Stan Van Gundy. “We haven’t shot it well, but these guys have a history of shooting it well.” Orlando is coming off a 89-72 home victory over the Grizzlies on Monday night, a contest that saw center Dwight Howard score 18 points and grab 14 rebounds. The team has a brilliant 17-6 ATS mark versus Pacific division clubs.
The Magic will be facing off against their first Pacific division opponent tonight and has tallied a 2-1 mark against the Western Conference, with all three games taking place at tonight’s venue. Orlando is currently 5-2 at home this season after posting an impressive 34-7 mark in 2009-10 at the old Amway Center. The offense gets a lot of attention, but the other unit has held this team together, giving up just 90.8 points per game and holding opponents to 90-or-less seven times.
Bettors may back the Suns due to their 12-5 ATS mark following a loss, while the Magic are 5-0 ATS when playing on two days rest.