Thursday's Best NBA Bets
Washington Wizards at New Jersey Nets
The New Jersey Nets plan to go small up against the Wizards with Jordan Farmar starting beside Devin Harris in place of Anthony Morrow, who’s out with a hamstring injury.
Morrow is out indefinitely, so this could be a look we’ll see more often, especially since Avery Johnson doesn’t have a whole lot of other options, with Travis Outlaw not impressing the coaching staff much.
Meanwhile, the team expects Sasha Vujacic to have an immediate impact after he came over from the Lakers in a three-way deal that was finalized on Wednesday.
"This trade benefits our team in both the short and long term," Nets general manager Billy King said in a statement.
"Sasha is a veteran NBA player who will add depth to our backcourt rotation, while the addition of the two future number one picks adds to our assets as we look to rebuild into a championship contender."
The Nets are probably better off concentrating on the future than this season considering they have dropped eight straight games, covering only twice over that span. Luckily in this spot, the Wizards are aboard the same sinking ship.
Pick: Under
NBA TNT Doubleheader: What Bettors Need to Know
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
No Ordinary Joe
The Atlanta Hawks (16-10 straight up, 11-15 against the spread) put up a brave front but are feeling the absence of swingman Joe Johnson. The four-time NBA All-Star is out with an elbow injury and isn’t expected to return until mid-January.
Atlanta won four of its first five games without Johnson in the lineup, but has since dropped two of three including Tuesday’s 23-point setback to the sad-sack Pistons.
"I do like the fact that we are less predictable [without Johnson] but I also know that with Joe in the lineup, he is a go-to guy," coach Larry Drew told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Obviously, bettors don’t like the sporadic play. Getting a read on this team without Johnson has been really tough. The Hawks score 80 points one night and 116 the next.
"Obviously when you lose your top gun, it's tough on guys," combo guard Jamal Crawford told reporters on Monday. "But we've all pulled together, we've all sacrificed and stepped up for each other. We are playing for each other. When he comes back, it will only make us that much stronger."
That might be tough against the Celtics on Thursday, especially if Crawford (back) isn’t able to play.
Déjà vu
The Celtics are again playing like the league’s best team. Boston enters Wednesday’s showdown against the Knicks with a 10-game win streak intact and those wins have come with a different starting five almost every other game.
Veteran big men Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal have missed time here and there due to a few nagging injuries, reserve guard Delonte West is out indefinitely with a broken wrist and All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo is fighting through an assortment of leg and foot injuries.
“It’s hard to explain it, but this team is on one accord,’’ Paul Pierce, who’s been fighting the flu himself, told the Boston Globe. “We’re feeling good right now. We feel like we can beat anybody regardless of who we put out there. We’re in a great rhythm right now as a team.’’
Kevin Garnett is a big part of the reason the C’s aren’t missing a beat despite the banged up crew. The one-time league MVP is no longer showing the effects of knee surgery that slowed him a season ago.
“He looks way better because his legs look better,” backup forward Glen Davis said. “He has more confidence. I don’t think he had that confidence last year. He looks better and he seems like he feels better and he’s playing better.”
Coach Doc Rivers also deserves a lot of credit for managing his aged roster. The Celtics skipped practice twice already this week in the hopes of keeping the more senior players fresh on game days.
Trends
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against the Celtics.
The under is 7-3 in the Hawks’ last 10 games.
Boston is 6-3-1 ATS during its 10-game win streak.
The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero days’ rest.
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
Meet the New Boss….
It was the Miami Heat, not the past-their-prime San Antonio Spurs who were supposed to be challenging the regular season win total. But after the first quarter of the campaign, San Antonio (20-3 SU, 15-7-1 ATS) finds itself on a record-breaking pace.
Despite winning 22 of 23 games, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is looking for ways to improve his club.
“Coaches are sick people,” Popovich told the San Antonio Express-News. “Whether you win or lose, there are always many mistakes made. They’ll never all be corrected, but that’s why we have a job.”
The Spurs are winning all these games and it’s happening with a major reduction in All-Star Tim Duncan’s time on the floor. The 34-year-old big man is averaging fewer than 30 minutes over the last 10 games, something he’s not happy about but knows it’s probably best for the team.
"I think (coach Gregg Popovich's) philosophy this year is to try not to play me in the fourth quarter at all, whether we're winning or losing," Duncan jokingly told the Associated Press after a recent win over the Trail Blazers. "I think he thinks our team is better without me out there. I've been trying to disprove him at some point."
Drama Queen
It looks like Carmelo Anthony’s refusal to re-sign with Denver is finally starting to affect the Nuggets (15-9 SU, 8-14-2 ATS). George Karl’s club is 2-3 in its last five contests and 2-5 ATS over its last seven matchups.
Still, the squad was able to put the Carmelo distraction aside during its 111-94 win over the Orlando Magic.
“I have a game here on Thursday night against San Antonio, and that’s what I’m focused on,” Anthony told the Denver Post after scoring 35 points against the Magic. “All of that other stuff, I don’t even pay attention to right now.
The Nuggets won despite playing without point guard Chauncey Billups, who’s having one of the worst seasons of his career and is expected to miss a week due to a sore wrist.
"It's supposed to feel better by then,” Billups said about one-week period. “But, of course, the best scenario is for me to rest it for four to six weeks and do nothing, but I can't do that.”
Trends
The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams.
San Antonio is 7-1 in its last eight games against teams with winning records.
Denver is 4-10-1 in its last 15 games overall.
Spurs at Nuggets part of light NBA betting slate
By: Brad Young
San Antonio, armed with the NBA’s best record, faces a tough task of playing on back-to-back nights when they meet the Denver Nuggets on Thursday. The Spurs are 20-3 straight up and 15-7-1 against the spread heading into Wednesday’s home matchup against Milwaukee, not suffering a loss since a Dec. 1 road upset against the Los Angeles Clippers.
San Antonio and Denver have not played each other yet this season, but the teams meet again next Wednesday.
Don Best's Real Time Odds has the Spurs as slight one-point road ‘chalk’ over the Nuggets, with the total set at 211. TNT will provide coverage of this contest beginning at 7:35 p.m. PT from Denver’s Pepsi Center.
San Antonio has won five games in a row SU and four consecutive contests ATS after throttling Portland Sunday as a 7 ½-point home favorite, 95-78. The combined 173 points never seriously threatened the 193-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 5-1 the previous six outings.
The Spurs outscored the Blazers in every quarter, and finished the contest by shooting 43 percent (32-of-74) from the field and 53 percent (9-of-17) from behind the arc. The defense limited Portland to just 38 percent (33-of-87) from the field and 33 percent (5-of-15) from 3-point land.
San Antonio’s George Hill led all scorers with 22 points in 28 minutes, while shooting guard Manu Ginobili added 18 and four assists. Veteran center Tim Duncan had eight points and 13 rebounds in the victory, while point guard Tony Parker provided 14, six rebounds and six assists.
Denver (15-9 SU, 8-14-2 ATS) is quietly putting together a solid season in the very competitive Northwest Division. The Nuggets are currently in third place, two games behind Utah and trailing Oklahoma City by just a half-game.
Denver has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses its last four games after Tuesday’s victory over Orlando as a two-point home underdog, 111-94. The combined 205 points landed directly on the closing total, ending back-to-back ‘over’ outings.
The Nuggets broke open a close contest by outscoring the Magic in the fourth quarter, 32-16. Denver also won the rebounding battle, 40-34, while dishing out more assists, 24-20. The Nuggets shot a solid 54 percent (43-of-80) from the field, and 42 percent (11-of-26) from behind the arc.
Small forward Carmelo Anthony paced the offense with 35 points and 11 rebounds, while center Nene added 10 and 10. Point guard Ty Lawson chipped in with 16 and six assists, while backcourt-mate Arron Afflalo added 15 and four.
The road team has won the last four meetings in the San Antonio-Denver series SU and ATS, with the ‘under’ prevailing each time. This marks the first matchup of this season between the two teams. The closest score between the Spurs and Nuggets during those matchups was seven points. The underdog road team is 8-0 ATS the previous eight encounters.
San Antonio guard Tony Parker is ‘probable’ versus the Nuggets due to an injured finger. The Spurs follow this matchup with a three-game homestand against Memphis, Phoenix and the Nuggets.
Denver guard Chauncey Billups is ‘out’ due to a wrist injury, while forward Chris Andersen will also not play due to a bad back. The Nuggets conclude a three-game homestand with Saturday’s meeting with Minnesota.
San Antonio is 9-2 ATS its last 11 games against Northwest opponents, and the team is 6-2-1 ATS its past nine road outings. The ‘under’ is 9-3-1 in the Spurs’ previous 13 matchups versus Northwest opponents.
Denver is just 4-10-1 ATS its last 15 outings overall, and just 2-5-1 ATS the previous eight home games. The ‘over’ is 7-2-1 in the Nuggets’ past 10 home endeavors.
NBA RoundUp for 12/16
by Dan Bebe
Washington Wizards @ New Jersey Nets with a total of N/A
This one is a mess. And by taking a quick peek at the start time, you can quickly assess that this is not one of the TNT games. The two teams involved might have been a tip-off, too. In any case, this game, to me, comes down to who plays. If the Wizards continue to deal with the injury bug, and John Wall and Andray Blatche can't make the game, the Nets should be able to slow things down and make the game nice and ugly. If Wall plays, and is actually healthy, the Wizards have a shot. Still, that team is so very, very young and can't make a shot to save their lives on the road, so until Washington posts a road win, I don't think you can rightly back them. Washington can cover some games at home, there's no doubt about that, and the Nets have been clanking along to about the same spectacularly awful tune that the Wizards have, but I'm inclined to think the "addition by subtraction" trade the Nets made has created a new buzz around the team. They're going on audition, and I think they show up with a marginal performance - enough to win, but cover? Let's see the line. Lean to JERSEY and the UNDER.
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics with a total of N/A
This game, to me, depends quite a bit on how Boston's game with the Knicks goes. We've seen Boston struggle in fatigue spots this year (not surprisingly, given the lack of depth and age of the players), but if they drop this so-called rivalry game in New York, you have to think they come home looking for blood. If Boston can pull out a tough one against the Knicks, this is a spot where the Hawks might be able to jump back up. I will admit, though, the Hawks looked pretty awful in their last game, getting blown out in Detroit. I still think the Joe Johnson injury is going to catch up with Atlanta eventually, and I worry that game in Detroit might have been the start. This brings us to an interesting side point -- handicapping football is very much predicated on understanding how the betting world reacts to each game. In the NBA, it's about understanding how the world reacts to a WEEK of games, and then staying ahead of the curve. If Atlanta is starting to cool off after a nice warm run, it might behoove us to try to beat the rush. And yes, Boston killed Atlanta earlier this year, which some might see as a revenge spot, but I worry might just be an indication that Atlanta isn't good enough to compete with Boston, any more. Oh, the humanity. Another game with 2 competing angles. Let's talk more about it once Boston and New York is decided. My expectation is a lean to ATLANTA and the UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) @ Denver Nuggets with a total of 214.5
This is a colossal total, and a pretty hefty opening number for the Spurs. I mean, I know San Antonio is playing good basketball, but to be a 1.5-point road favorite on the second night of a back-to-back is really giving San Antonio a wild amount of credit. Everyone take a moment and process this. This line is an announcement that the Spurs are a 6.5-point neutral court favorite over Denver. Would they really be a 9.5-point home favorite if they played again after a day off? This is classic line inflation due to the Spurs' success, and I have to give the slight nod to the Nuggets just because of the number. The huge total also would seem to point to a Denver-paced game, and going into altitude on the second night of two games, as we've seen before, is tough. It's not quite as bad when a team plays at 8pm ET the night before (as opposed to a 10pm game on the West coast), and the Spurs are gaining time due to zones, but even with the normal night of rest, the legs might be tough to find. The Spurs will try to win this one with defense, and if we believe Denver is the team we saw in their last 3 games, I lean NUGGETS, and the huge total makes me think the OVER is being hinted...
Tips and Trends
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
SPURS: (-2, O/U 213.5) San Antonio has the best record in the NBA at 20-3 SU. The Spurs have been brilliant all season long, as they are motivated to finish with the best regular season in the league. San Antonio is 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS on the road this year. The Spurs are riding a 4 game ATS winning streak, each game coming as the listed favorite. San Antonio is averaging 106.4 PPG this year, 4th best in the NBA. PG Tony Parker is playing like an MVP candidate, as he's averaging 16.9 PPG and 7 APG, while shooting better than 50% from the field. G Manu Ginobli is averaging a team high 20 PPG this season, making nearly 2.5 three pointers per game. Defensively, San Antonio is allowing just 96.5 PPG this year. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. San Antonio is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the NBA Northwest. San Antonio is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
Spurs are 7-1 ATS last 8 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games against the Western Conference.
Key Injuries - G Tony Parker (finger) is probable.
Projected Score: 110 (SIDE of the Day)
NUGGETS: Denver is coming off their best game of the season, a blowout home win over Orlando. The Nuggets are 15-9 SU and 8-14-2 ATS overall this year. Denver has proven to be deadly at home, as they are 11-1 SU this season. The Nuggets have only covered 2 of their last 7 games, both coming as the listed underdog. The Nuggets are averaging 106.8 PPG this season, 3rd most in the NBA. F Carmelo Anthony leads Denver with 23.7 PPG this year. C Nene Hilario is averaging 15.2 PPG and 7.1 RPG this season, while shooting 63% from the field. The Nuggets are allowing 104.4 PPG this year, 8th worst in the league. Denver needs to continue to win at an alarming rate to have any chance of keeping Anthony in a Denver uniform. Denver is 5-5-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. If the playoffs started today, Denver would be 6th in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. Denver is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the NBA Southwest. The Nuggets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Nuggets are 6-17-3 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 1 days rest.
Nuggets are 19-7 ATS last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 22-6 last 28 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - G Chauncey Billups (wrist) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 102
NBA Betting Preview: San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
By Jeff Mattingly
San Antonio put the finishing touches on a perfect 6-0 home stand with a thrilling 92-90 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks on a last second shot by Manu Ginobili. “It was a tough shot,” Ginobili stated after the game. “I got lucky.” The Spurs will be making their first of two trips to the Mile High City tonight and both teams captured two victories on each other’s home court in last season’s series. The team is a dominating 21-3 on the season and has tallied a 7-1 road record against Western Conference opponents. San Antonio is 15-8 ATS on the season and 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.
The Spurs will return home after tonight’s contest for three more home games and will look to avoid a losing streak on the road, after dropping a 90-85 contest to the Los Angeles Clippers on December 1. Much of the team’s success is centered around its offensive attack that currently ranks fourth in the NBA in points per game. San Antonio is also leading the league in three-point field goal percentage (.414) and checks in eighth overall in field goal percentage (.469).
Denver is a solid 15-9 overall this season and holds a dominating 11-1 record at the Pepsi Center entering tonight’s Western Conference matchup. The Nuggets have won 10-straight home games and are coming off an impressive 111-94 victory over the Orlando Magic on Tuesday. All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony led the charge with 35 points and 11 rebounds, but the media was more focused on persistent trade rumors swirling around him. “I’ve got a game here Thursday night against San Antonio and that’s what I’m focused on,” he stated. Denver is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less this season.
The Nuggets are likely to start Ty Lawson at point guard tonight for the second consecutive game, as veteran Chauncey Billups is listed as day-to-day with a right wrist injury. Lawson scored 16 points and dished out six assists against the Magic and is averaging 16.6 points and 5.5 assists in 11 career starts. Denver has dropped two straight to San Antonio in Denver, marking the only active multi-game home losing streak for the Nuggets.
Bettors will be interested in backing the Spurs due to their 4-0 ATS mark in Denver, while the underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.