Thursday's Best NBA Bets
Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers (+4.5, 192)
ESPN radio host Colin Cowherd and NBA analyst and PTI host Michael Wilbon both think Cleveland is going to blow Miami out of the gym. We think it’s pretty crazy that two guys who love to pat the league’s stars on the back are predicting a Miami massacre Thursday night in LeBron James’ first game back in Cleveland since leaving the franchise that drafted him in 2003.
The Heat usually take care of business against the league’s little sisters. They’ve beaten the Wizards, 76ers, Nets, Timberwolves and Suns all by double digits. But then again, Miami is just 2-5 on the road and this will be the most hostile environment it’ll play in all season.
“I'm ready for whatever response I'm going to get,” James told the Miami Herald earlier this week. “It's going to be very emotionally draining for myself. Being in a different uniform, it's going to be kind of weird.”
The Cavs aren’t as bad as everyone thought they’d be without King James. Bryon Scott has the star-less club playing hard and winning games they shouldn’t.
Miami will be playing on the second night of a back to back, and its bench is already razor thin.
Pick: Cleveland
Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors (-2.5, 229.5)
Wins have been hard to come by for the Warriors. The club is just 1-6 (2-5 ATS) over its last seven games and got absolutely worked over by the Spurs Tuesday night.
Golden State’s problem is the same it’s been for years: no height and a bench short on talent. It’s never a good sign if Vladimir Radmanovic is a major part of your rotation.
Phoenix has similar flaws on its team but the Suns will present the Warriors with some matchup problems. Look for the power forward tandem of Hedo Turkuglu and Hakim Warrick to combine for big numbers and give the Warriors fits at the offensive end.
Pick: Phoenix
NBA Betting: Warriors and Suns on TNT
By: Brad Young
Two teams in the middle of the Pacific Division standings collide for the first time Thursday night when Phoenix visits Golden State. Both squads trail the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers in second and third place despite entering this matchup with losing records.
Phoenix (8-9 straight up, 6-10-1 against the NBA spread) ranks a dismal 30th in the league in rebounds per game (39.2) and points allowed (111.9), but leads the association in scoring (109.4). The Suns have seen the ‘over’ go 8-3 their last 11 outings versus Pacific Division opponents.
Golden State (8-10 SU, 8-9-1 ATS) is slightly ahead of Phoenix in points allowed, ranking 27th in the league by surrendering an average of 106.5 points per contest. The Warriors are 12-3 ATS their previous 15 games against Pacific Division teams.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds installed Golden State as a slight one-point home favorite over Phoenix, with the total set at 224. TNT will provide coverage of this Pacific Division matchup beginning at 7:30 p.m. PT from Oracle Arena. The contest follows the highly anticipated Heat, Cavaliers match in Cleveland where LeBron James returns for the first time since defecting to Miami.
Phoenix has alternated SU wins and losses its last five games after falling to Denver Sunday as a five-point road underdog, 138-133. The combined 271 points soared past the 221 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the fifth consecutive contest. That contest marked the league’s highest-scoring game of the season. The Suns are just 1-5-1 ATS the past seven games overall.
Phoenix never led in the game after falling behind the Nuggets in the first quarter, 31-18. The Suns made a late charge with an 11-point scoring advantage in the fourth quarter, 44-33. Phoenix was out-rebounded in the game, 49-42, but the team did deliver more assists, 34-28, while shooting a solid 51 percent (52-of-102) from the field.
Jason Richardson led the charge with 39 points and 10 rebounds, both of which are season highs. Point guard Steve Nash accounted for 17 and 11 assists in the setback, while Josh Childress added 15 on 6-of-9 shooting.
Golden State plummeted to 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS its last seven games after Tuesday’s setback to San Antonio as a four-point home underdog, 118-98. The combined 216 points eclipsed the 214 ½-point closing total. The Warriors entered that contest riding a brief two-game ATS winning streak.
Golden State was outscored in every quarter, and ended the game by getting outdistanced in rebounding (50-44) and assists (31-20). The Warriors shot 47 percent (41-of-87) from the field, but only 28 percent (5-of-18) from behind the arc.
Point guard Stephen Curry paced the offense with 32 points on 13-of-22 shooting, while center David Lee added 18 and seven rebounds. Forward Dorell Wright had 13 and five in the loss, while guard Monta Ellis pitched in with 12 points.
Phoenix is 8-2 SU and 4-5-1 ATS the previous 10 meetings with Golden State, but this is the first encounter this year. The ‘over’ is 6-4 during those 10 matchups, with the lowest total during that time being 227 ½. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS the last eight meetings.
The Suns follow this contest with a two-game homestand versus Indiana and Washington.
Golden State forward Brandan Wright is ‘questionable’ against the Suns due to a back injury, while forward Louis Amundson (finger) is ‘out.’ The Warriors embark on a three-game road trip following this contest with games versus Oklahoma City, Dallas and San Antonio.
NBA Betting Preview: Phoenix at Golden State
By Jeff Mattingly
Phoenix has proven victorious in eight of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, averaging 123.8 points and giving up 117.0 over that span. The Suns have gone over the century mark in the last 17 meetings with tonight’s opponent and the winning team has had at least 123 points in all four matchups last season. The team has lost five of its last seven games due to a stop unit that is surrendering 119.4 points over that span and giving up a league-high 111.9 points on the year. “You can’t win a game where you don’t guard anybody,” said coach Alvin Gentry. “You got to guard somebody. You got to guard one person.” Phoenix has a 7-5 overall record against the Western Conference, including a 3-3 mark on the road. The team is 4-5 ATS on the road this season.
The Suns have won five of their last six games against Western foes and six of their last eight. Phoenix point guard Steve Nash is poised for a big showing tonight, after averaging a team-high 22.3 points and 11.8 assists in the four meetings with the Warriors last season. The offense has been clicking on all cylinders recently, scoring 115 or more points in four-straight games for the first time since December 25-30, 2009. The bench has also proven to provide support to the starting unit, scoring 23 or more points in all 17 games this season.
Golden State is also mired in a defensive slump by giving up 112.4 points over its last seven games, with the team recording a 1-6 mark over that span. The Warriors are coming off a 118-98 home loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, as their opponents connected on 27 of 31 free throw attempts. In order to turn things around, the team has to look no further than its 4-1 record when holding opponents under 100 points, but that hasn’t happened once in the past three weeks. Golden State is 22-26 ATS as a favorite over the past three years.
The Warriors have scored over 100 points in 10 games this season, including a 132 points on opening night against the Rockets, which is the 2nd-most point scored in the league this season. Golden State gets out on the fast break, averaging 18.9 points, which is second in the league. It’s make it or break it time for this club early in December, playing six games to start the month against teams that made the playoffs last year.
Bettors will have an interest in backing the Suns in this contest due to their 14-6 ATS mark versus a team with a losing record, while the Warriors are 0-4 ATS at home.
NBA RoundUp for 12/2
by Dan Bebe
Miami Heat (-6.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 191.5
There's very little I can write that everyone isn't already thinking. And I went back and forth in my mind trying to decide if a long writeup was really worth the time on this one. And the answer is "not really." Everyone already knows LeBron is coming back to Cleveland, and that the arena has hired additional security for the evening. Most know that Dan Gilbert has officially launched his own probe into potential tampering. Most also know that LeBron and his "friends" have begun the coup against Erik Spoelstra, and they also know that the other Heat veterans are falling in line like a bunch of wimps. Good times. This is going to be the Cavaliers strongest effort of the entire season, there's no doubt about that, but will they try too hard? I believe there's going to be a conscious effort to keep this game nice and clean, so while I originally had a nice lean to the Under, I'm starting to think that the refs will get a friendly call from the league office reminding them that if anything gets even the slightest bit out of control, the arena might lose it. That means, in my estimation, the best possible bet in this game is an Over, though not necessarily for the entire contest. The 4th quarter has a strong chance of being painfully slow, but if guys get running and bodies collide at any point in the first 3 quadrants, I think we'll hear some whistles. There is also the concern that the teams get off to slow starts because of the pressure and environment, but somehow I don't think that happens. This line has rocketed down off the opening number, so at 6.5, someone sure thought the Cavs were the value play. At the current line, it's a bit tougher. I'd be inclined to recommend a PASS on the side, and a small consideration of the OVER on the total.
Phoenix Suns (-1) @ Golden State Warriors with a total of 227
These games are always insane track meets. If you like seeing humans fly, you'll enjoy this one. If you like playoff-caliber basketball, you might want to skip it. This total of 227, amazingly, is lower than any of the 4 meetings in 2009-10. Those contests were mostly hovering near 233, with an outlying 242 in the season's final meeting. And, we need to give oddsmakers some credit, those totals went 2-2 O/U. Phoenix took 2 of those 3 games, as well, straight up, but due to 3 of the 4 contests being fairly well-contested, the Warriors actually covered in 3 of the 4. And, make no mistake, Amar'e Stoudemire was a monster in the game in California that the Suns managed to steal. Otherwise, this was a series dictated by home court, and that shouldn't surprise anyone. Teams that rely on shooting, or rather, on offense, to win games, are often the same teams that have a big home/road split, because, let's face it, defense travels. This year, though, no Amar'e. In the game in Golden State where Stoudemire played poorly, the Warriors took care of business. I'm inclined we see a similar outcome, here. The Warriors can keep up with the Suns pace, and the Warriors actually have the vastly superior big men. The Suns biggest edge, outside shooting, is somewhat mitigated by the Warriors speed, and ability to convert long rebounds into easy points. So, unless Phoenix duplicates their performance in Los Angeles and cans 55 threes (exaggerated...), the Warriors should have a nice shot to grab a "W." And yes, I know the Warriors got spanked by the Spurs, but San Antonio plays outstanding defense, and Phoenix plays none. Lean to GOLDEN STATE and the OVER, though a smart man would leave a wacky total like this one alone.
NBA Betting Preview: Miami at Cleveland
By Jeff Mattingly
Miami Heat travels to play the second game of a back-to-back on the road in an atmosphere that frankly no one can predict. “I think it’s going to be very emotional for myself,” said LeBron James. “I’ve got a lot of great memories in that city. So many times, from ups and downs and a lot of things I’ve done in my life.” Tonight will mark the first time James plays in the city he use to call home, growing up about 40 miles south in Akron. The Heat are coming off an impressive 97-72 home win over the Detroit Pistons last night, a game that saw them lead by as many as 34 points at one point. The team is 1-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.
The Heat have an 11-8 overall record and have posted a 9-4 mark against the Eastern Conference. Miami will be meeting Cleveland for the first of four matchups this season, as the Cavaliers captured the season-series, 3-0 last year due to having James on their roster. Defensively, the team is coming off a solid performance in holding all five of the Pistons’ starters to single-digits. The franchise has done that just four times in its existence.
Cleveland looks to bounce back from a 106-87 home loss to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night and extend its winning streak to six games over the Heat. In those five meetings, the Cavaliers have outscored the Heat by a 102.2-to-94.0 margin. The team currently stands at 7-10 on the season and has a 6-7 record against conference opponents. In order to pull off the home underdog upset tonight, Cleveland will need to continue relying on a bench that leads the NBA in scoring by averaging 44.7 points per game. The squad is 1-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points on the year.
The Cavaliers will need a huge game from point guard Mo Williams, who is averaging 15.9 points and 5.3 assists per game and is the biggest mismatch on the court against the Heat personnel. Before Tuesday’s loss to Boston, he was averaging 23.3 points, 8.3 assists and 4.3 rebounds in the team’s previous three games. Defensively, Cleveland will need to do a much better job of controlling the paint, as Boston held a 60-26 edge inside in its last contest.
Bettors will likely back the Heat due to their 6-2 ATS mark as a road favorite of 5.0 to 10.5 points, while the Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS as a home underdog in the same situation.