Thursday's Best NBA Bet
Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings (1, 185.5)
The Bucks caught the Lakers in a big letdown spot and took full advantage of it.
With Milwaukee sending out just nine healthy players and the Lakers rolling along on a five-game win streak, the Bucks hit better than 50 percent of their shots from the floor for only the third time this year to drill L.A. 98-79.
The 5-foot-5 Earl Boykins canned four treys and finished with 22 points and John Salmons added 20 for the Bucks, who snapped a three-game slide.
"They usually always make a run in the fourth quarter," Boykins eloquently told the press. "We were just trying to stay in front for as long as possible. If you play with effort and belief, you can do anything."
That’s some advice the Kings could use. Sacto has dropped 14 of its last 15 straight up and five of the last six against the spread after they ran out of gas in overtime, losing 117-109 to Golden State as a 3-point favorite.
We’ll side with the Bucks here, but this is going to be ugly. Tune in to the TNT doubleheader and keep your eye on the ticker for this matchup.
Pick: Bucks
Phoenix next NBA betting stop for Miami Heat
By: Brad Young
Miami (21-9 straight up, 14-16 against the spread) takes the court for the first time since having its 12-game winning streak halted when the Heat visit the Phoenix Suns on Thursday. The Southeast Division leading Heat went a solid 9-3 ATS during that stretch.
Miami embarks on an interesting two-game road trip against Pacific Division foes, facing a revamped Phoenix squad (13-14 SU, 11-15-1 ATS) before a matchup with the defending-champion Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas. The Heat lead the league in points allowed (91.5), while the Suns are league leaders in points per game (108.5).
Don Best's Real-Time Odds show Miami as five-point road ‘chalk’ over Phoenix, with the total set at 207½. TNT will provide coverage of Thursday’s tilt beginning at 7:35 p.m. PT from Phoenix’s US Airways Center.
Miami saw its winning ways abruptly halted with Monday’s setback to Dallas as a 6½-point home favorite, 98-96. The combined 194 points slithered ‘over’ the 193 ½-point closing total, snapping back-to-back ‘under’ outings.
The Heat lost the game by getting outscored in the fourth quarter, 33-28. Miami finished the contest by shooting 41 percent (34-of-84) from the field and 36 percent (11-of-31) from behind the arc.
Shooting guard Dwyane Wade paced the offense with 22 points and seven assists, while LeBron James had 19 and 10 rebounds. Power forward Chris Bosh contributed 19 and eight in the setback, while guard Mario Chalmers added 13.
Phoenix will be playing for the first time with recently-acquired center Marcin Gortat and forward Mickael Pietrus from Orlando, while guard Vince Carter is expected to miss this matchup due to a knee injury. The Suns have alternated SU wins and losses their last five outings.
Phoenix concluded a three-game road trip with Monday’s loss at San Antonio as a 10½-point underdog, 118-110. The combined 228 points soared past the 212 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second consecutive contest. The Suns have covered their previous two outings.
Phoenix dropped the game by getting outscored in the third quarter, 40-24. The Suns were also outclassed in rebounding (43-35) and assists (27-23). Phoenix finished the matchup by shooting a solid 54 percent (46-of-86) from the field, and 27 percent (6-of-22) from 3-point land.
Forward Jared Dudley stepped up with 27 points and five rebounds in the setback, while veteran Grant Hill added 19. Point guard Steve Nash pitched in with 17 and 10 assists, while center Robin Lopez had 14 and seven boards.
Miami is 5-1 SU and ATS the previous six encounters with Phoenix, while the ‘over’ is 5-2 the past seven matchups. The Heat won the lone meeting this season Nov. 17 as an 8½-point home ‘chalk,’ 123-96, while the combined 219 points went ‘over’ the 210½-point closing total.
NBA RoundUp for 12/23
by Dan Bebe
San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic (-2.5) with a total of 199.5
This line is intriguing to me, given what we know about back-to-back spots. Orlando last played against Dallas 2 days back, another team that was facing a back-to-back, and Orlando was a 4-point favorite over the Mavericks in that contest, indicating to me that the Mavs were considered a 1-point neutral court fave. This line, at 1.5-points less, tell us the Spurs are ranked as 1.5-points better than the Mavs, and a full 2.5-points better than the Magic. Is this accurate? Maybe, maybe not. In any event, the Mavs continued to roll on the road, so one might argue that, at least right now, most lines with the Magic are going to be off by a hair. The Mavs tried the odd strategy of playing a match-up zone defense, and that didn't really work. Dallas had to outscore Orlando to win. I don't imagine the Spurs will go that same route. No one can truly stop Dwight Howard, but the Spurs are crafty, and I'd be surprised if they let guys like J.J. Redick get wide open looks like Dallas did. Will fatigue be an issue, is the next question. Every time I thought the Spurs would slow, they found a way to play better defense and slow the game down, as well. I'm not concerned about the Spurs' energy. Orlando might have a tiny look-ahead to Boston, but you have to think they're more focused on winning the game at hand. They need Jason Richardson to warm up, or they'll get beat again. Small lean to SAN ANTONIO and the UNDER.
Milwaukee Bucks (-1) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 185.5
A trap line? The Bucks, even without Jennings, only laying a single point to the worst team in the NBA sure smells funny, but I just can't back the Kings. Sacramento has zero offensive continuity, and the only reason they were able to take a lead on the Warriors (before blowing it) was because of superior rebounding. Milwaukee is much bigger than Golden State, and though they might be in a letdown spot off the revenge win over the Lakers, they might also be in a confident spot. Sacramento, to me, is a team that is beyond backing. I don't say that often. They find ways to lose, and they find ways to lose big, most times. I'm not going to belabor this point. There is no reason to back the Kings, and even though I'm not saying you should back Milwaukee (since there are ample reasons to pass on this game, altogether), the only logical conclusion is a baby lean to MILWAUKEE and the UNDER.
Miami Heat (-6) @ Phoenix Suns with a total of 209
How much does revenge matter, here, and how much is Miami just too dominant for the Suns? Here are my 4 angles. First, as noted, is revenge. Miami walloped Phoenix in November down in Florida, though Steve Nash was extremely banged up, and even though he tried to play, he wasn't himself. Not a great barometer, but Phoenix got steamrolled. Second, Miami just lost its first game off a long win streak. I tend to like to fade teams in the letdown off a long streak, so this angle points to Phoenix, too. Third, Phoenix just made a monster trade, sending away Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu, and acquiring Marcin Gortat, Vince Carter, and Mikael Pietrus. It sounds like Carter is considering arthroscopic surgery on his knee, so his health is an issue, and Pietrus and Gortat don't understand the Phoenix gameplan, yet. The return to health of Robin Lopez is helping Phoenix on the interior, and they've covered 2 in a row with some hot shooting, but unless Phoenix fires over 50% from the field, I have trouble seeing them hang within 8-9 points. What are the odds Phoenix shoots 52%? Those are your odds for Phoenix to hang tough. The fourth and final angle is the look-ahead. Miami plays in LA on Christmas Day, so LeBron and Wade might be gearing up for the Kobe experience. This angle could weigh heavily. Thus, put all those together, and the angles point 3:1 in Phoenix's favor. Lean to the SUNS and the OVER.