Thursday's NBA Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Thursday represents the final day of games played in the first-half of the season. But more importantly it’s a time to take inventory of our bankrolls in preparation for the remaining 41 games until postseason play.
A quick walk around the league indicates that Orlando and Cleveland lead the league in against the spread wins (both have combined for a 65-34-1 ATS record). Teams that haven’t been worth touching include Washington and Phoenix. These two organizations have generated an ATS record sitting at a conjoined 36-62-3 ATS.
Without further ado, here’s a preview of two TNT games that will close out Part One of the season with a bang.
Miami at Chicago – 7:00 p.m. EST
The Heat (27-24 SU, 23-26-2 ATS) have stumbled across the midpoint mark by dropping five of the last seven games both SU and ATS, scoring an unconstructive, 94.2 PPG in the last five while finding itself at 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in the last five road games.
Miami is coming off a rough, 99-82 defeat against Denver on Tuesday as 1 ½-point underdog. The recent loss added to the Heat’s record of just 2-4 ATS as one to 2 ½-point underdogs this season. But maybe more vital in Thursday’s contest is Miami’s 5-2 ‘over’ mark in the last seven. Giving up 99.7 PPG when most books have installed totals averaging just 193.6 PPG during the same seven reveals why the ‘over’ has been the play of choice.
While the Bulls (23-29 SU, 25-26-1 ATS) have floundered in the Central, a 5-2 SU and a smoking 6-0-1 ATS stint in the last seven gives us reason to back the club. Scoring 107.7 PPG through this stretch is impressive from an offensive perspective but the ‘D’ has suffered from inconsistency by allowing triple-digit scoring figures in four of these seven contests.
Again, the totals topic must focus on the ‘over’ racking up a 5-0 run in the last five. With Chicago scoring at will and giving up close to 105.6 PPG, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the team has ranked top notch on total wagering. Some more numbers worth plugging into your notebook include a 6-3 ‘over’ record versus the Southeast Division, 10-6 on the ‘over’ as a home favorite and are 14-10 on the ‘over’ after an ATS win (winning SU and ATS against Detroit, 107-102).
In their last meeting together on Dec. 26, Miami found life in the second half after getting outscored, 45-40 during the first two quarters. Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook came off the bench to add 26 points in the Heat’s 90-77 ‘W’ at American Airlines Arena. Miami was a 5 ½-point favorite in that contest.
The Bulls enter this contest with a 3-8 ATS record in the last 11 home games and are just 1-7 ATS in the last eight versus teams in the Southeast.
Boston at Dallas – 9:30 p.m. EST
After losing to the Lakers on Sunday (110-109), Boston (42-11 SU, 29-24 ATS) split a win in New York (110-100) and a defeat at home against San Antonio (105-99). The Celtics are now 8-7 ATS inside "The Garden" versus teams with a winning record and 5-4 ATS on the road against teams playing over .500.
Facing Dallas (31-20 SU, 24-27 ATS) in the last seven games dating back to 2005 reveals that Boston has been dominating at the window, cashing tickets at 6-1 ATS. That’s not to say they’ve faired well in straight up wins. The Celts are just 3-7 SU in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Despite Boston shooting 48 percent and averaging 104 PPG in the last two home games, both San Antonio and the L.A. Lakers responded by draining a combined 48 percent. In the process, five games in a row have now gone ‘over’ the total and is 7-1 in the last eight. And since we’re on the topic of total wagering, bettors should prepare their homework ASAP as Boston is an overwhelming 15-8 on the ‘under’ when playing teams above the .500 mark.
Books have set the total at 200 plus points in three of the last 10 Celtics’ games. This has resulted in Boston’s 7-4 record on the ‘over’. A combined ‘over’ record of 11-6 has been produced when the total has been installed between 195 to 200-plus points.
Coming off two days of rest, the Celtics have amassed a solid, 7-2 ATS record.
The Mavericks have taken two games in a row, are 6-1 in their last seven and are 5-2 ATS during the same run. Dallas has been reliant on its offense, which has shot lights at 51.8 percent from the field and 36.9 percent from three-point range during the last six outings. The effective scoring has projected this team into the win column despite getting outrebounded 48.2 to 44.8 RPG during this stretch.
And then there’s the 14-9 SU and 10-13 ATS record after Dallas has come off an ATS win. This is the situation that the Mavs find themselves in after taking a 118-110 win over Sacramento on Tuesday (the Mavericks covered the 10 ½-points with the total going ‘over’ 212 ½-points.
Dallas is 5-2 SU but just 4-3 ATS in seven games against the Atlantic division this season. This club is scoring 101.1 PPG but is 11-9 on the ‘under’ versus the Eastern Conference.
Back on Jan. 25, the Celtics throttled the Mavs, 124-100 as nine-point favorites. This marked the third straight game for which they’ve covered in head-to-head matchups.
Dallas will be without starting point guard, Jason Terry for three to six weeks. In a 115-114 win over Chicago on Saturday, the nine-year veteran sustained a broken bone in his non-shooting hand. In the last four years playing with the Mavericks, Terry had missed just five games (12 games throughout his career).
Free Throw
-- Portland (31-19 SU, 24-25 ATS) at Golden State (18-25 SU, 24-26-3 ATS) will tangle at 10:30 p.m. EST. Sportsbook.com has opened the Warriors as 1 ½-point home underdogs with a total of 216 set.
-- The Trail Blazers have taken a bit of hit on the injury front, losing Martell Webster (foot), Raef LaFrentz (shoulder) and Steve Blake (shoulder) for an extended period if time. Blake, who missed 11 of the last 12 games with a separated shoulder, will look to return to the hardwood after taking full practice on Tuesday. Portland has logged in a 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS record into the books without their starting point guard in the lineup.
-- The Trail Blazers will be entering this contest on back-to-back nights. Portland is 5-4 ATS without a day of rest and will be looking to snap a three-game ATS slide which began in a 104-99 loss in Dallas.
-- One game witnesses Golden State losing to Phoenix, 115-105, only to bounce back against Utah in a 116-96 romping. Tuesday’s 144-127 offensive explosion was the third ATS win the last four games.
-- The Warriors 14-17-2 ATS off one-day of rest, are 7-3 ATS at home versus a team with a winning record but have struggled when coming off a win (4-12-1 ATS).
-- Golden State has taken the last three of four meetings against Portland but are 2-4 ATS in the last six meetings.
vegasinsider.com.
What bettors need to know: TNT NBA double header
By VICTOR RYAN
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (-3.5, 197)
This is a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions as we near the All-Star break. The Bulls are money in the bank since the end of January with seven wins and a push in their last eight games. The Heat, meanwhile, have lost three of four and five of their last seven games, both straight up and against the spread.
The Heat’s recent struggles are the direct result of their cold starts. That trend continued in their 99-82 loss to Denver at home Tuesday night. The Nuggets shot 75 percent in the first quarter and built a 20-point lead by halftime before putting it in cruise control in the second half.
“I don’t know what it is in the past few games, but we keep giving up 50 or 60 percent shooting to teams and let them get ahead early, “ Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told the Miami Herald. “Tonight it was over 70 to a team that came out after a humbling loss the other night.”
Interior defense has been the major concern for the Heat (23-26-2 overall ATS) during this slide, as easy layups and dunks have become all too common for Miami’s opponents.
“It’s perplexing considering the point we’re at in the season and what’s at stake. I think we need to go back and try and realize what it was that made us the team we’ve been until recently and try to recapture that,” Spoelstra said.
The Bulls, who are chasing Milwaukee for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, come in riding high. They exit a 107-102 win versus Detroit at home Tuesday night, in which they overcame a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit. That was thanks in large part to strong play from young guards Ben Gordon and Derrick Rose and rapidly emerging forward Tyrus Thomas, who finished with 22 points and 10 boards.
The Bulls (25-26-1 overall ATS) are averaging 110 points over their last five games, a five-point increase from their season average. All this has taken place without the services of double-digit scorer Drew Gooden, who has been out since the end of January with a groin injury.
Head to head
Miami beat the Bulls 90-77 as a 5.5-point home favorite in their last matchup Dec 26. The Bulls had won nine of 11 versus the Heat prior to that, which includes last year’s playoffs. Rookie Michael Beasley played a big role in the win for the Heat with eight of his 14 points coming in the fourth quarter.
There is also some lingering animosity between these two teams stemming from that matchup. Bulls’ coach Vinny Del Negro took exception to a late timeout taken by the Heat in order to pull their starters and warned after the game it wouldn’t be forgotten the next time the two teams met.
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks (+4, 198.5)
The Mavericks have been rolling since the end of January going 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. Dallas did suffer a huge blow when guard Jason Terry and his 19.9 points a game were sent to the sidelines because of a hand injury that required surgery. The sixth man will be out until at least mid March.
The Mavs will now call on forward Josh Howard to be the second option behind Dirk Nowitzki, according to Coach Rick Carlisle. The forward responded with perhaps his best overall game of the season Tuesday night in the Mavs 118-100 win vs. Sacramento. Howard tallied 23 points, six rebounds and five assists while playing solid defense on the block.
This will be the second road game in as many nights for the Celtics following their tilt with the New Orleans Hornets Wednesday. The six-game trip, the longest of the season for the Celtics, follows a disappointing week in which they suffered home losses to Western Conference powers San Antonio and Los Angeles. Eight of the Celtics' 11 losses this season have come against the Western Conference heading into Wednesday.
The Celtics were just 1-4 ATS in their last five games entering Wednesday’s fray with New Orleans and are just 5-7 ATS in the second night of a back-to-back.
Boston, like many teams this time of the season, is blaming its recent struggles on poor defense. They have given up 103 points a game over its last five which is over 10 points more than their season average.
"The key to (those recent losses) was our inability to get stops throughout the game, and that's what it boils down to for us as a defensive team," Paul Pierce told local media.
Head to head
Boston dismantled the Mavs 124-100 at home when these two teams met January 25.
Total Trends
The over is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these teams.
The under is 24-9 in Boston’s last 33 road games.
The over is 7-3 in Dallas’ last 10 games overall.
NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, Feb. 12
Boston at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST). The defending champion Celtics, who opened a six-game road trip with a win at New Orleans on Wednesday, play the second game of that swing against the Mavericks, who are 17-7 at home.
STARS
Wednesday
— Mo Williams, Cavaliers, scored a career-high 44 points in his first home game since being added to the All-Star game and Cleveland beat Phoenix 109-92.
— Ramon Sessions and Richard Jefferson, Bucks. Sessions scored 15 points and added a season-high 17 assists, and Jefferson scored 22 of his 32 points in the second half to lead Milwaukee to a 122-110 win over Indiana.
— Manu Ginobili, Spurs, had 32 points, seven rebounds, four assists and three steals in San Antonio’s 91-89 loss at Toronto.
— Hakim Warrick, Grizzlies, tied a career high with 31 points and added eight rebounds in Memphis’ 91-87 loss at Philadelphia.
— Paul Pierce, Celtics, scored 30 points and Boston won its eighth straight away from home, 89-77 at New Orleans.
— Yao Ming, Rockets, had 24 points and 18 rebounds and Houston beat Sacramento 94-82.
— Deron Williams, Jazz, had 31 points and 11 assists as Utah snapped the Los Angeles Lakers’ seven-game winning streak with a 113-109 victory.
— Nate Robinson, Knicks, had 33 points, 15 assists and nine rebounds in New York’s 128-124 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.
MILESTONES
New York’s David Lee extended his streak of consecutive double-double games to 16 with 17 points and 16 rebounds, tying him with Bob McAdoo for third-longest in Knicks history, in a 128-124 overtime loss to the Clippers.
SEATTLE LAMENTS
Wednesday’s game was the Thunder’s first appearance in Portland since the team moved from Seattle. There was a smattering of SuperSonics jerseys scattered through the crowd. One fan held a sign borrowing on the NBA’s own ad campaign, reading “Where ripping out an entire city’s heart happens.” Portland won 106-92.
BALANCED CONTRIBUTIONS
The Clippers used strong work from several players in a 128-124 overtime win against the Knicks. Rookie Eric Gordon scored 30 points, Steve Novak added a career-high 23 points, Zach Randolph had 22 points and 15 rebounds, Al Thornton had 20 points, and Baron Davis 13 points and a career-high 20 assists.
STREAKS
Carmelo Anthony had 29 points and eight rebounds as the Nuggets ended a 15-game losing streak in Orlando with an 82-73 win. … Boston has won eight straight road games after beating New Orleans 89-77. … Indiana lost its ninth straight on the road, falling to 6-22, with a 122-110 defeat at Milwaukee. … Portland’s Rudy Fernandez has made a 3-pointer in 29 straight games, matching the rookie record held by Kirk Hinrich. Fernandez has hit a 3-pointer in 49 of his 50 games this year. … The Wizards dropped to 0-12 against the Southeast Division. … The Kings have lost five in a row and 13 of 14. … Utah stopped the Lakers’ seven-game winning streak with a 113-109 victory.
STATS
The Magic finished with a season low in points, a season-high 24 turnovers and were held to a season-low 30.4 percent shooting from the floor in an 82-73 loss to Denver. … Milwaukee (26-29) tied its win total from last season and improved to 2-1 without starters Michael Redd (knee), Andrew Bogut (back) and Luke Ridnour (thumb) with a 122-110 win at Indiana. … The Sixers (27-24) moved three games over .500 for the first time since winning the first three games of the 2006-07 season. They enter the All-Star break with a 14-4 mark since Jan. 6. … Atlanta has its best record at the All-Star break in a decade, 31-21. … The Pistons are 23-24 since Allen Iverson joined the team in a trade for Chauncey Billups. They have their worst record (27-24) at the break since 2002.
SIDELINED
Suns point guard Steve Nash didn’t dress at Cleveland to get extra rest for numerous sore spots. Phoenix lost 109-92. … Rookie Roko Ukic scored a career-high 22 points to lead Toronto over San Antonio 91-89. The Raptors missed forward Chris Bosh for a fourth straight game with a sprained right knee, and point guard Jose Calderon sat out with a sore right hamstring. They were reduced to nine available players when forward Joey Graham left 2:56 into the game because of a bruised right shin. … Celtics guard Ray Allen hyperextended his right thumb in the first half at New Orleans and didn’t return.
SPEAKING
“Mo was on fire. We couldn’t contain him. He had his shotgun cocked and loaded. Props to him on the way he shot the ball.”—Suns forward Amare Stoudemire after a 109-92 loss at Cleveland in which Cavaliers guard Mo Williams scored 44 points.
Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls
Dwyane Wade led Miami with 33 points and seven rebounds in its 99-82 loss to Denver on Tuesday night.
Denver cashed as 1-point road underdogs as the teams played under the 203-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Ben Gordon scored 24 points to lead the Bulls past the Pistons 107-102 on Tuesday night.
Chicago covered as 2.5-point home favorites as the teams played over the 190-point total posted by sportsbooks.
Team records:
Miami: 27-24 SU, 24-26-1 ATS
Chicago: 23-29 SU, 25-26-1 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Minnesota are 5-5
After playing Denver are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Milwaukee are 4-6
After playing Detroit are 3-7
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Chicago is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
Next up:
Miami home to Minnesota, Wednesday, February 18
Chicago at Milwaukee, Wednesday, February 18
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Celtics allowed just 13 points in the fourth quarter to earn an 89-77 win over the Hornets last time out. The Celtics covered the 7-point spread, while the 166 points fell UNDER the posted total of 185.5.
Paul Pierce led the way with a game-high 30 points, while Kevin Garnett had 14 points and 10 rebounds for a double-double in that win.
Josh Howard scored 23 points and hauled down six rebounds, as the Mavericks outgunned the Kings 118-100 on Tuesday night.
Dallas cashed as 12-point home favorites as the teams played over the 213-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Dallas has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Boston: 43-11 SU, 30-24 ATS
Dallas: 31-20 SU, 24-27 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
Before playing Utah are 6-4
After playing New Orleans are 3-7
After a win are 8-2
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing New Jersey are 6-4
After playing Sacramento are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Next up:
Boston at Utah, Thursday, February 19
Dallas home to New Jersey, Wednesday, February 18
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors
Brandon Roy went for 22 points and five rebounds on Wednesday, leading the Trail Blazers to a convincing 106-92 victory over the Thunder. The Trail Blazers covered the 11.5-point spread, while the 198 points went UNDER the posted total of 201.
Travis Outlaw netted 21 points for the Trail Blazers, and Greg Oden added 16.
Stephen Jackson had 35 points, 10 assists, and six rebounds, as the Warriors defeated the Knicks 144-127 on Tuesday night.
Golden State cashed as 3-point home favorites as the game played over the 232-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Portland has won 2 straight games.
Golden State has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 32-19 SU, 26-25 ATS
Golden State: 18-35 SU, 25-27-1 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Memphis are 5-5
After playing Oklahoma City are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing LA Lakers are 4-6
After playing New York are 5-5
After a win are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
Portland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Portland's last 18 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Portland
Golden State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Portland home to Memphis, Wednesday, February 18
Golden State home to LA Lakers, Wednesday, February 18
MIAMI (27 - 24) at CHICAGO (23 - 29)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 56-75 ATS (-26.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 27-42 ATS (-19.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 7-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 9-3 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON (42 - 11) at DALLAS (31 - 20)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 210-164 ATS (+29.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BOSTON is 96-64 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 76-54 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 46-32 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 50-26 ATS (+21.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND (31 - 19) at GOLDEN STATE (18 - 35)
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 59-74 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 25-40 ATS (-19.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 156-197 ATS (-60.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-59 ATS (-27.9 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 4-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 5-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI vs. CHICAGO
Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
BOSTON vs. DALLAS
Boston is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
PORTLAND vs. GOLDEN STATE
Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Hot Teams
-- Bulls won five of their last seven games (7-0-1 vs spread last eight).
-- Celtics won their last eight road games (7-1 vs spread). Mavericks are 6-1 in their last seven games.
-- Warriors won three of their last four games. Portland won seven of its last nine games.
Cold Teams
-- Miami lost five of its last seven games.
Totals
-- Last five Chicago games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Boston games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Golden State games stayed under.
Back-to Back
-- Celtics are 4-7 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Portland is 0-3 vs spread if it won the night before.
(5) Louisville (18-4, 13-9 ATS) at Notre Dame (12-10, 4-12 ATS)
Two teams headed in completely opposite directions square off when Louisville travels to the Joyce Center to take on Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish got belted at UCLA on Saturday, losing 89-63 as an 11½-point underdog for their seventh consecutive SU loss and eighth straight ATS setback. Notre Dame is being outscored by an average of nearly 14 ppg during the seven-game skid (85-71.1), with its closest margin of defeat being a seven-point loss. In the last five games, the Irish have been outshot by seven percentage points (46.2-39.2) and outrebounded by an average of 39.8-33.4.
The Cardinals dropped St. John’s 60-47 as an 11-point road chalk Sunday, bouncing back from their 68-51 setback to No. 1 Connecticut as a 2½-point home chalk on Feb. 2. Louisville is on a 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS tear, allowing only two opponents to break 70 points in that stretch and holding six teams to 60 points or less. On the road this season, the Cardinals are averaging 67.4 ppg on 42.7 percent shooting, while holding opponents to just 56 ppg on 35.8 percent shooting.
Notre Dame’s losing streak began with an 87-73 overtime loss at Louisville one month ago, ending the Irish’s 3-0 ATS run in this rivalry. The Cardinals have taken three of the last four meetings SU.
The Cardinals, who are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the extremely deep Big East, are on positive pointspread rolls of 22-6-1 on the highway, 38-13-2 in conference play, 4-0 after allowing less than 50 points in a game, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 7-2 after a SU win and 5-2 against winning teams.
On the flip side, the Irish (3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS in the Big East) are in pointspread funks of 0-7 in conference action, 0-6 after a SU loss and 1-4 at home, and their current 0-8 ATS slide has all come against winning teams. Also, Notre Dame has lost consecutive home games after winning its previous 45 in a row at the Joyce Center.
The under is on runs for Louisville of 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark and 54-24-2 versus teams with a home winning percentage above .600, and the under is 5-1 in Notre Dame’s last six at home. Otherwise, though, the over for the Irish is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 20-7 against the Big East and 19-7 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
(11) UCLA (19-4, 12-10 ATS) at (18) Arizona State (18-5, 12-7 ATS)
Surging UCLA gets back into conference play with a trip to Tempe to take on Arizona State in a battle of ranked Pac-10 teams.
The Bruins pelted Notre Dame 89-63 Saturday as an 11½-point chalk to post their fourth straight win and cover, further shaking off a previous three-game ATS skid (1-2 SU). During its four-game run, UCLA has outscored opponents by 23 ppg (86-63). However, all four games were at Pauley Pavilion, and on the road this season, the Bruins are outscoring opponents by less than two buckets per game (69.3-65.5).
The Sun Devils swept a two-game trek to the Northwest last week, beating Oregon 66-57 Thursday and Oregon State 49-38 on Saturday, narrowly covering as an 8½-point favorite in both games. ASU is 6-3 SU and ATS in its last nine games, and defense has been a key, with the Sun Devils allowing no more than 58 points in all six wins and holding three opponents under 50.
The Bruins are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in Pac-10 play, including 4-1 (2-3 ATS) on the road. Arizona State is 7-4 SU and ATS in conference, but only 2-2 SU and ATS in Tempe. In fact, the Sun Devils got swept by Washington State (65-55) and Washington (84-71) in their last two home outings. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 11 of ASU’s Pac-10 starts this season.
Arizona State stunned UCLA 61-58 in overtime as a six-point pup at Pauley Pavilion last month, halting a two-game SU and ATS uptick by the Bruins in this rivalry. Furthermore, ASU is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests (all from the underdog role), despite going just 1-6 SU in that span.
The Bruins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, but they are on pointspread rolls of 36-17-1 on the road, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win and 14-5 on Thursday. The Sun Devils are on positive ATS runs of 5-2 on Thursday, 10-4-1 against the Pac-10 and 9-2 at home against teams with a road winning percentage above .600, but they are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 starts following a spread-cover.
The over for UCLA is on tears of 6-0 overall (5-0 in the Pac-10), 4-0 after a SU win and 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Conversely, the under for Arizona State is on runs of 7-2 overall (all against the Pac-10), 4-1 after a SU win and 8-2 on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(19) Gonzaga (17-5, 10-10 ATS) at St. Mary’s (18-4, 10-7-1 ATS)
Gonzaga, coming off a blowout loss on its home floor, heads to Moraga, Calif., for a West Coast Conference clash with St. Mary’s at McKeon Pavilion.
The Bulldogs got hounded by No. 14 Memphis 68-50 Saturday as a four-point home chalk, ending a nine-game winning streak (5-4 ATS) in which Gonzaga scored 83 points or more six times, including cracking 90 in three games. The Zags, who were held to a season-low point total Saturday, have averaged 80.1 ppg on the road this season, while allowing 67.6 ppg on just 36.7 percent shooting from the floor.
The Gaels have dropped three of their last four games (2-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 70-52 upset loss at Santa Clara as a five-point favorite. In its last five games, St. Mary’s is averaging 64.8 ppg – well off its season average of 73.8 – and allowing just a tick less at 64.6, while being outshot 46.1 percent to 44.3 percent. A big reason for the Gaels’ slump is the loss of starting guard Patty Mills (18.7 points per game), who broke his wrist in a 69-62 loss at Gonzaga on Jan. 29.
The Bulldogs sit atop the West Coast Conference standings with an 8-0 record (4-4 ATS), including 3-0 on the highway (2-1 ATS). St. Mary’s started conference play with five straight wins (3-2 ATS) before slumping to 1-3 (2-2 ATS) in its last four. The Gaels have won all four WCC home games (2-2 ATS).
Although Gonzaga beat St. Mary’s two weeks ago, it failed to cover as a 9½-point home chalk, so these rivals have alternated spread-covers over the past five meetings. The home team is on a 4-1 ATS run during this stretch. In fact, the host has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these schools, including the last six in a row.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off a pointspread setback, but they are on ATS slides of 2-8 against winning teams and 3-7 on the highway against teams with a winning home record. The Gaels are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 contests against winning teams, but they are on ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover and 6-1 at home versus teams with a road win percentage above .600. Also, they covered in their only game this season as an underdog (at Gonzaga).
The over for Gonzaga is on runs of 4-0 on the road, 4-1 after a SU loss, 8-2 after an ATS setback and 9-4 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Conversely, the under for St. Mary’s is on streaks of 7-2 overall (all in conference play), 5-1 on Thursday and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA
Gametimepicks.com
Thursday Research
By Indiancowboy
Miami vs. Chicago
Note that the Heat have struggled the last few contests on the road. For starters, they lost to Philly by 10 on the road as a 3.5 dog, they lost to Detroit by 3 on the road as a 4.5 dog and they lost to Indiana on the road 11 as a 4 point dog. But, what the Heat do have going for them is that they come off a tough loss to Denver at home and they look to bounce-back as these are the last set of games prior to the all-star break. Note, that the Bulls have revenge coming into this game given that they lost 77-90 to this team. In fact, the Bulls actually led early only to collapse in the second half. Note, though that the Bulls are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 game as they are now healthy with the return of Kirk and Deng and with the play of Rose, Gordon and Tyrus Thomas, this team is doing just fine winning 4 of their 7 games on their west coast road trip. A lean on the Bulls despite the line going down. Chalmers is listed as questioanble for this game for the Heat due to his knee.
Boston vs. Dallas
If you are looking for an upset tonight, than this might be just it. Just a few notes on it - Dallas lost to this team in terrible fashion on the road on national television. Boston is on a back to back and Dallas is waiting for this game. Note, that Boston actually didn't play all that well against a hampered and banged up NO team although they did manage to come back and cover the spread. I was hopoing Boston would b/c it sets them up nicely for a SU loss at Dallas. Dirk shot the ball terribly against Boston at home but here is the catch, Jason Terry is out for this game. Yet, the line which opened up at 4, has come down to 2.5 despite being 70% of the public in favor of Boston. I don't know how - maybe Barrea has a big game in replacement of Terry - but I think Dallas upsets Boston here tonight SU. I didn't roll with it b/c of the fact Terry is playing, but from what I can see - especially on a short NBA card - this seemsl like an upset in the making.
Tips and Trends
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
Heat: Miami has dropped five of its last seven games and hopes to bounce back in Dwyane Wade's hometown. Wade has struggled in most of his past trips home to Chicago, and he has been the only player on his team to step up lately. He scored 33 points in a 99-82 home loss to Denver on Tuesday, and rookie Michael Beasley has totaled 11 points and four rebounds combined over the last two games. Beasley had 14 points and six rebounds in the last meeting en route to a 90-77 victory.
Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
The OVER is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 road games.
Key Injuries - F Dorell Wright (Achilles') is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Bulls (-3.5, O/U 197): Chicago rookie Derrick Rose will try to forget about one of his worst performances of his young career earlier this season against Miami, as he totaled 10 points on 3-of-14 shooting and turned the ball over five times. “I was trying to be aggressive and the shots just weren’t falling for me,” Rose said. “I was thinking too much out there.” He has averaged 18.4 points in leading the Bulls to five wins in the last seven games though, scoring at least 20 for the third straight time on Tuesday. That latest performance helped them rally back from down 14 and resulted in a 107-102 win over Detroit.
Bulls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Southeast Division.
The OVER is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 games vs. Southeast Division.
Key Injuries - G Derrick Rose (head) is day-to-day.
F Drew Gooden (groin) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 100
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
Celtics (-2.5, O/U 196.5): Boston has won eight straight road games following an impressive 89-77 victory at New Orleans on Wednesday. The Celtics outscored the Hornets 25-13 in the fourth quarter and proved they can finish strong after blowing late leads in home losses to the Lakers and Spurs. “I guess we learned from our mistakes,” Boston's Paul Pierce said. “It was all about execution, especially in the fourth quarter and we defended at a higher level there in the fourth. Those are two things we’ve got to do, especially on the road.”
Celtics are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.
The UNDER is 25-9 in Boston's last 34 road games.
Key Injuries - G Ray Allen (thumb) is questionable.
G Tony Allen (thumb) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)
Mavs: Dallas will be trying to win six in a row at the American Airlines Center for the first time this season and has also won 10 of the last 11 games played there. Mavs star Dirk Nowitzki has averaged 28 points on 52 percent shooting during their five-game home winning streak and hopes to rebound from a poor performance the last time he faced the Celtics. Nowitzki totaled 18 points on 4-of-17 shooting in a 124-100 loss at Boston on January 25th.
Mavs are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 Thursday games.
The UNDER is 11-4 in Dallas' last 15 games vs. Atlantic Division.
Key Injuries - G Jason Terry (hand) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95