Thursday's Best NBA Bet
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls (-2, 190.5)
Anytime the team with the best record in the NBA by far is an underdog, you have to take a close look. The host Bulls are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games. Over that span, the team has won six straight at home and climbed into the discussion for top seed in the Eastern Conference. But is there recent play good enough to trip up the Spurs?
San Antonio is 8-2 SU and ATS over its past 10 games, nine of which have been on the road. Oddsmakers, however, think a road weary Spurs team may decide to fold late against a physical, motivated Bulls team. Spurs coach Greg Popovich already has begun tinkering with his lineup to get players rest, including brining All-Star Manu Ginobili off the bench for the first time this season in a blowout win at Washington last weekend.
“They’re feeling a few bumps and bruises, but they’re character guys,” Popovich told reporters. “They’re professionals, and they know what’s expected of them. They know where they want to be at the end of the year and they’re working towards that. So no game can be left without trying to get better.”
And that’s just the way the Spurs have played this season. San Antonio has yet to mail in a game after nearly four full months of games. As underdogs, the Spurs are a phenomenal 6-1 ATS, always playing more rested or motivated teams close.
Don’t expect Thursday in Chicago to be any different.
Pick: San Antonio
NBA TNT Doubleheader Betting Preview
By David Chan
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls
The Spurs were thought to be too old. The Bulls were thought to be lagging behind Eastern Conference powers Boston, Orlando, and Miami.
That was then. This is now. More than halfway through the season, both notions have been proved incorrect. San Antonio (46-9, 34-19-2 ATS) and Chicago (37-16, 31-20-2 ATS) are two of the five best teams in the entire NBA heading into Thursday’s showdown.
Derrick Rose has the Bulls contending in the East.
The Spurs are No. 1 in the league and the Bulls are fifth, well ahead of Orlando and within two games of both Boston and Miami in the East.
Prior engagement
This is the second of two clashes between San Antonio and Chicago this season. Playing at home on November 17, the Spurs erased 10-point halftime deficit by outscoring the visitors by a ridiculous 37-12 margin in the third quarter. San Antonio held on for a 103-94 victory to cover the 6.5-point spread. Tony Parker scored 21 points, Manu Ginobili added 20 and Tim Duncan had 16 points and 18 boards for the Spurs. Derrick Rose hit 15 of 27 shots and kept the Bulls in it with 33 points.
The Spurs won the rebounding battle 50 to 42, and that could be an even bigger problem for Chicago in this one. Joakim Noah, who had 10 points and 14 boards in the loss, is still out with a thumb injury and will not be back until late February.
Road warriors
Thursday’s contest marks the end of San Antonio’s 2011 “Rodeo Road Trip,” the team’s annual foray away from the AT&T Center, which has been hosting the San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo.
For the Spurs, this trip has been one of their best. They are 6-2 through eight games, including an 89-88 win over the Lakers on February 3. A victory over Chicago would better their 6-3 mark in 2008 and would be their best effort since going 8-1 on the trek in 2003.
“We just have to stay focused, that’s going to be the main thing for us,” guard Tony Parker told reporters after Monday’s 102-85 beat down of New Jersey. “Focus on defense. We have a lot of room for improvement. Even if I think we’re on the right track, I think we can do a lot of stuff better and we just have to stay motivated.”
Trending topics
The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven against teams with winning percentages above .600.
The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records.
The under is 14-6 in San Antonio’s last 20 overall and 7-0 in the last seven meetings between the two teams.
The Spurs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Chicago.
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
The Mavericks and Suns have faced each other only once this season going into Thursday night’s encounter. Playing at home on December 17, Dallas made a mockery of a 7-point spread and led by 21 points after three quarters before coasting to a 106-91 victory.
Phoenix (27-26, 23-28-2) played all but five minutes of the game without Steve Nash, who sustained a neck stinger in the first quarter. The Mavericks dominated with a balanced scoring attack. Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Caron Butler (now out for the season) and Shawn Marion all scored between 15 and 18 points.
Channing Frye and the Suns host Dallas Thursday.
The Mavericks head into this game following a home date with Sacramento on Wednesday night. They are a respectable 7-4 (7-4 ATS) in the second of back-to-back games this season.
Trade winds blowing?
“When healthy, we’re the best team in the league.”
That was Dallas guard Jason Terry to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram earlier this week. Needless to say, Terry does not think the Mavericks (38-16, 29-23-2 ATS) need to do any wheeling and dealing as the NBA trade deadline approaches.
At last season’s deadline, they made a seven-player swap with Washington that brought in Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson. Speaking of Butler, there’s a minor caveat to Terry’s “healthy” comment. These Mavericks will never be completely healthy because Butler is out for the year with a knee injury.
Still, the Mavs have won 11 of their past 12 games and the only blemish in this current span is a 121-120 setback at Denver last Thursday. Dallas will have Roddy Beaubois (foot) in uniform for the first time this season and recently-acquired Peja Stojakovic scored 22 points in a win at Houston Saturday.
“This year, our team’s intact,” Terry continued. “We’re feeling good. We’re coming off a stretch where we won 10 in a row and we’re starting to get healthy. I think that’s the biggest key for us.”
Trending topics
The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
The Suns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records.
The over is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven overall, 6-0 in its last six road games and 6-0 in its last six against the Western Conference. However, the under is 4-1 in Phoenix’s last five overall.
The over is 6-1 in the last seven meeting between the two teams in Phoenix. Both the home team and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five encounters.
Spurs, Bulls tip TNT doubleheader
By: Adam Markowitz
Every single season, the San Antonio Spurs are forced onto their rodeo road trip, a trip that usually spans somewhere around 10 games. The trip is often hard and arduous, but has often proven successful.
Though there were a few shaky results on this year's trek, the team has gone 6-2 straight up and against the spread thus far in eight games and has easily preserved the best record in basketball.
That mark will be on the line in NBA betting action Thursday night at the United Center against the Chicago Bulls. Tip-off time is set for 5:00 p.m. (PT) on the final day before the All-Star break, and basketball wagering warriors can view the game live on TNT with the Mavericks and Suns capping the evening from Phoenix.
San Antonio became one of the few teams in the history of the league to win 46 of its first 55 games, and the mass majority of those teams have gone on to win the NBA Championship. Getting to 70 wins isn't out of the possibility, though head coach Gregg Popovich is clearly going to be more concerned about getting to 16 wins in the postseason than he is 70 in the regular season.
The numbers for San Antonio's stars are all seemingly middling, as Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are down to 17.9 and 17.3 PPG respectively. However, thanks to a ton of well-rounded efforts that include getting at least 7.4 PPG from eight different players, the Spurs just aren't losing a beat.
As a team, the Spurs average 103.5 PPG, good enough to rank No. 6 in the league. You won't find a much more efficient team than this either, as San Antonio ranks No. 4 in field goal percentage (47.3%) and No. 2 in three point shooting percentage (39.5%).
This is one of these big time statement games for the Bulls to prove they are a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference. Of course, all of the talk surrounding the at least remote possibility that Carmelo Anthony could be in town by the time the midseason hiatus is over will certainly have the Windy City buzzing. But it should be just as notable that the Bulls are about to be at full strength and are clicking on all cylinders.
Chicago took down its sixth straight home win and its third straight victory overall with a 106-94 win over the Charlotte Bobcats on Tuesday night in preparation for this one, and Joakim Noah is a matter of perhaps a couple of weeks away from getting back on the court. When that happens, it could be very scary for the rest of the NBA betting world, as Noah and Carlos Boozer are both averaging double-doubles per game, though the two have not really seen that much of the court together at the same time this year due to injuries to them both.
As always, we'll be keeping an eye on Derrick Rose as well. The 22-year-old has put up fantastic numbers this year, averaging 24.5 PPG, 8.2 APG and 4.4 RPG. He has scored at least 14 points in every game he has played since December 18, a remarkable run of games without a horrible off night mixed in.
The Spurs dominated when these two teams faced off in the Lone Star State in November, winning 103-94. It was a great win after two losses last season. Still, San Antonio is 6-2 ATS over the course of the last eight games played at United Center, and it hopes that this finale of the rodeo road trip will be one to remember.
Mavericks, Suns cap NBA betting doubleheader
By: Brad Young
Dallas will be playing its second game in as many nights with Thursday’s road matchup against Phoenix.
The Mavericks are 38-16 straight up, 29-23-2 against the spread heading into Wednesday’s home contest with Sacramento. Dallas is currently entrenched in second place in the Southwest Division standings, and would be the second seed in the Western Conference if the regular season ended today.
Phoenix (27-26 SU, 23-28-2 ATS) would miss out on the playoffs if the season ended today. However the Suns have been playing better as of late, going 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS their last 10 games. This marks the last game for both teams before the upcoming All-Star break.
Dallas concluded a three-game road trip by beating Houston Saturday as one-point ‘chalk,’ 106-102. The combined 208 points eclipsed the 206 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 6-1 the previous seven outings.
The Mavericks took control of the contest by outscoring the Rockets in the second quarter, 34-19, but almost lost after getting outscored in the fourth, 35-23. Dallas finished the game with advantages in rebounding, 42-38, and assists, 26-21. The Mavs shot a blistering 55 percent (43-of-78) from the field, and 53 percent (8-of-15) from behind the arc.
Dallas prevailed behind a balanced scoring attack, led by forward Dirk Nowitzki who had 22 points and six rebounds. Small forward Peja Stojakovic provided 22 and four in the victory, while forward Shawn Marion added 14 and nine.
Phoenix toppled Utah on Tuesday as a 4½-point home favorite, 102-101, while the combined 203 points failed to topple the 208-point closing total. The Suns have now seen the ‘under’ go 4-1 their last five games. Phoenix has failed to cover its past two performances.
The Suns trailed by eight points at one point in the fourth quarter, but prevailed after going on an 11-0 run. Phoenix shot a solid 49 percent (36-of-73) from the field and 41 percent (12-of-29) from 3-point land, helping the team overcome a rebounding deficit, 39-32.
Center Channing Frye stepped up with a career-high 31 points along with 11 rebounds, while veteran point guard Steve Nash produced 20 and 14 assists. Bench players Marcin Gortat (11 points, seven boards) and Mickael Pietrus (11 and four) were also instrumental in the victory.
The home team is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the previous five meetings in the Dallas-Phoenix series. The Mavericks won the lone encounter this season Dec. 17 as a 7½-point home ‘chalk,’ 106-91, while the combined 197 points never seriously threatened the 212½-point closing total. The ‘under’ is 3-1 the previous four games in this series.
Dallas guard Jose Juan Barea (flu) and guard Rodrigue Beaubois (ankle) are ‘probable’ versus the Suns, while forward Caron Butler is ‘out’ for the rest of the season due to a knee injury. The Mavs are 11-4 ATS the previous 15 games against Pacific Division opponents.
Phoenix has seen the ‘over’ go 11-5 its last 16 outings versus Southwest Division teams. The Suns are 6-2 ATS their past eight Thursday games.
TNT will provide coverage of Thursday’s matchup beginning at 7:35 p.m. PT from Phoenix’s US Airways Center. A clash between the Bulls and Spurs opens TNT's evening telecastat 5 p.m. (PT).
NBA RoundUp for 2/17
by Dan Bebe
San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls (-2) with a total of 190.5
The Spurs have been nearly immune to scheduling, situational, and all other angles that we can throw at them, but it would take the willpower of a beastmaster to overcome the letdown that has to come with the final game of a 9-game road trip, and the final game before the All Star Break. Then again, maybe not. I decided to do a little digging, and checked out the Spurs last few seasons of Rodeo-ness, and as it turns out, their road trip usually continues on the other side of the Break. This is a rarity, that the trip ends as the Break begins. The last time that happened was in 2008, and they won and covered the final 2 games of their trip that season. In 2009 the Spurs lost their game before the Break, but won the final game of the Rodeo trip, which ended a few days after the Break. In 2010, the Spurs won the final game before the break, but lost the last game of the trip. So, what we're finding is that there's almost zero consistency. It seems like the Spurs rarely win both letdown games, but often win one. But here, they only have one, and it has both angles rolled together. Chicago is on revenge, so they're in the better situational spot, and are also at home, which, as we're seeing, is a decent angle going into the Break. I know Coach Pop isn't going to let the Spurs take a night off, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if they weren't fully focused. Truth be told, this game isn't a great value either way, but given the info, or lack thereof, I lean to the BULLS on the side, and the OVER.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns (-1) with a total of 207
Don't look now, but the Mavericks just got a pretty intriguing player back from injury, and he's flying way, way below the radar. His name, Roddy Beaubois. I think people forgot how skilled a scorer this kid is, and in 20 minutes of garbage time in his first game back all season, Beaubois put up 13 points, 6 dimes, 3 steals, and banged in a three. If not for the Caron Butler injury, which, by the way, he's now saying he can return for the Playoffs, the Mavs might really be in business. And here, on the second half of a back-to-back, Dallas has the depth to deal with potential fatigue. I'll admit, with Phoenix playing better basketball, on revenge, and beating good teams lately, this isn't really a game I want to bet. The Suns are hot, the Mavs are hot, and you have to figure both teams want to head into the Break with good feelings. Unfortunately, only one team can. More interestingly, at least in my estimation, the Suns are playing significantly improved defense. The Suns are still playing high scoring games, but they're holding opponents to under 47% shooting. What's causing the change? Is it a renewed interest in defense? I'm inclined to believe that because the Suns are more content running a half-court offense, it's just simply easier to play transition defense, and teams aren't going to get as many easy buckets. Regardless, the Suns are playing to the Under. Only problem here is that Dallas is going the offensive route. When it all gets boiled right down to the nubs, this game is a perfect no-play all around. Of course, I know that answer doesn't satisfy many of you, and you're still going to ask my opinion on this game. So, for you junkies who won't take my pass in stride, slight lean to Dallas and the Under. Don't do it.
Thursday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The first half of the NBA season concludes on Thursday night with a pair of solid matchups as home teams with worse records are laying points. The Mavs play the second end of a back-to-back in Phoenix against the surging Suns, looking to close the gap in the Southwest Division. Meanwhile, the leaders of that division finish their nine-game Rodeo road swing in the Windy City against the best home team in the Eastern Conference.
Spurs at Bulls
San Antonio wasn't expected to be in line for a 70-win season in October, but Gregg Popovich's club owns a dazzling 46-9 record. The Spurs will likely fall short of that feat, as San Antonio needs 18 wins in its final 27 games to set a franchise record in victories, eclipsing the 63-19 mark in 2005-06. The Black and Silver looks to wrap up the trip at 7-2 SU/ATS as the Spurs invade the United Center to battle the Bulls.
Not only are do the Spurs have the top record in the NBA, but they also are the most profitable club at 34-19-2 ATS. Playing on the highway has benefited Spurs' backers by going 9-3 ATS the last 12 away contests, including blowout victories at Washington and New Jersey. For the exception of the 71-spot the Spurs put up in a loss at Philadelphia, San Antonio has topped the 100-point mark in five of the last six games on this trip.
The Bulls returned home from a successful 3-2 SU/ATS road swing with a 106-94 victory over the Bobcats on Tuesday, beating Charlotte for the first time in three meetings this season. Chicago is riding a 7-2 ATS run, while winning nine of its last 11 overall. The Bulls are an Eastern Conference-best 24-4 SU at home, as Tom Thibodeau's squad has compiled an 8-2-1 ATS mark the previous 11 games at the United Center after cashing against Charlotte as 9 ½-point 'chalk.'
The Spurs beat the Bulls back in November as part of Chicago's "Circus Road Trip" by a 103-94 count. San Antonio managed a cover as 6½-point favorites after trailing by 10 at halftime thanks to a 37-12 third quarter spurt. Coincidentally, the 37-spot put up in the third quarter equaled the 37 points scored in the first half by the Spurs in that win. Derrick Rose scored a game-high 33 points, as the Bulls played without Carlos Boozer, who missed the first 15 games with a hand injury. Tim Duncan played one of his better games of the season with 16 points and 18 rebounds, while the Spurs controlled the boards with a 50-42 advantage in the rebounding department.
Mavericks at Suns
Both these times are peaking at the right time as Phoenix looks to make a push towards the postseason against Dallas. The Suns have won seven of nine games following Tuesday's close-shave victory over the decimated Jazz, while the Mavs are rolling with an 11-2 run as Dallas is coming off Wednesday's home victory over Sacramento. Since the return of Dirk Nowitzki to the Mavs' lineup, Dallas is 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS.
The Mavs rolled the hapless Kings last night, 116-100, to cover as 11-point home favorites. Dallas avoided a potential letdown spot by draining 13 three-pointers, including six from veteran point guard Jason Kidd. The Mavs head to the Valley for the first time this season as Dallas goes for its second victory this season over Phoenix. Steve Nash left early in the first quarter of the last meeting at the American Airlines Center on December 17 after colliding with Mavs' center Tyson Chandler for a loose ball. Dallas took advantage by outscoring Phoenix by 15 in the second quarter and never looked back in a 106-91 victory as seven-point 'chalk.'
The Suns are making a move up the Western Conference standings after winning seven of nine games, including victories over the Jazz twice, the Celtics, and Hornets. Phoenix failed to cover in the last two games against Sacramento and Utah, while getting shocked by the Kings on Sunday night as 9 ½-point favorites in a 113-108 loss. The Suns have dropped five of the last six meetings to the Mavericks, but only two of those games came in Phoenix (1-1).
Vegas Insider's Chris David points out that the Suns are starting to rise in the Valley, "The Suns have been two different teams this season, with the change coming after the big trade in late December. Phoenix has actually slowed it down and surprisingly it's winning with the new tempo. The club has posted a 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS record in their last 17 and a lot of the success can be related to the play on the defensive side of the ball. In eight of the 12 wins over this span, opponents have been held to 102 points or less, which has helped the 'under' has gone 8-4 in the Suns' victories and you can start to see the oddsmakers lower the totals."
David explains further that the totals are dwindling down thanks to the Suns slowing things down, "Case in point is tonight's matchup against Dallas. The 'over/under' is hovering around 207 points and we haven't seen a number this low between the pair since the 2008 season. The pair met in Dallas in mid-December and the combined 197 points never threatened the closing number of 212½."
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls
SPURS: San Antonio would loving nothing more than to head to the All Star Break with a season sweep of Chicago. The Spurs were swept in both regular season contests last year to the Bulls, so they would love to return the favor. The Spurs have the best record in the NBA at 46-9 SU. San Antonio currently has a 7.5 game lead over Dallas in the Western Conference. The Spurs are an impressive 34-19-2 ATS overall this season, one of the most profitable teams with a SU winning record in quite some time. The Spurs are 21-7 SU and 19-8 ATS in road games this year. San Antonio is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3 PTS or fewer this season. The Spurs have 5 players averaging double figures in PPG this year, led by G Manu Ginobli. Ginobli is averaging a team high 17.9 PPG and 1.6 SPG this year. PG Tony Parker is averaging 17.3 PPG and a team high 6.8 APG this season. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against the NBA Central. San Antonio is 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Spurs are 7-0 ATS last 7 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Under is 10-3 last 13 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - F Tiago Splitter (hamstring) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 98
BULLS: (-2, O/U 190.5) Chicago has become an elite team in the NBA this season. The Bulls own the largest division lead in the league, 13 games in the Central Division. Chicago is 37-16 SU and 31-20-2 ATS overall this season. The Bulls are currently 2 games behind both Boston and Miami for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Chicago is 24-4 SU and 17-10 ATS in home games this year. Chicago is 19-17 ATS as the listed favorite this year, including 2-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3 PTS or fewer. PG Derrick Rose is a legitimate MVP candidate this year, as he's averaging team highs of 24.5 PPG and 8.2 APG this year. F Carlos Boozer is averaging 19.4 PPG and 10.1 RPG this season. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Chicago is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Bulls are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bulls are 6-1 ATS last 7 games following a SU win.
Under is 7-0 last 7 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - C Joakim Noah (thumb) is out.
Projected Score: 99 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
MAVERICKS: Dallas is one of the hottest teams in the NBA, as they've won 9 of their last 10 games SU. The Mavericks are 38-16 SU and 29-23-2 ATS overall this year. Dallas has been just as good on the road as they have at home this year. The Mavericks are 18-8 SU and 17-9 ATS on the road this season. Dallas is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3 PTS or fewer this year. Dallas is averaging 98.2 PPG this year, with F Dirk Nowitzki the main reason why. Nowitzki is averaging a team high 22.6 PPG this season, while shooting better than 52% from the field. C Tyson Chandler is averaging 10.6 PPG and a team high 9.4 RPG this season while bringing a defensive toughness to his team. Defensively, the Mavericks are allowing opponents just 95.3 PPG this year. The Mavericks are currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference, trailing only San Antonio. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games games against a team with a winning SU record. Dallas is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against the NBA Pacific. Dallas is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 0 days rest.
Mavericks are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games against the Western Conference.
Key Injuries - G Rodrique Beaubois (foot) is probable.
Projected Score: 98
SUNS: (-1, O/U 207) Phoenix has won 7 of their last 10 games overall, and they are a team to watch in the 2nd half of the season. The Suns are playing with passion, especially on the defensive end. The Suns are desperate to move up from 10th place in the Western Conference. Currently, the Suns trail Utah by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot. Phoenix is 27-26 SU and 23-28-2 ATS overall this season. The Suns are 16-12 SU and 12-16 ATS in home games this season. Phoenix is 3-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 PTS or fewer this year. Phoenix is averaging 105.1 PPG this season, 3rd most in the NBA. PG Steve Nash is averaging 16.9 PPG and a team high 11.3 APG this year. C Marcin Gortat is averaging 10.7 PPG and 8.1 RPG for Phoenix since coming over from Orlando in a trade. The Suns are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%. Phoenix is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games against the NBA Southwest. The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Suns are 6-2 ATS last 8 Thursday games.
Under is 5-0 last 5 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%.
Key Injuries - F Gani Lawal (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 106 (SIDE of the Day)