Thursday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday NBA card provides bettors with just two games to wager on, but both matchups are nothing short of excellent. The first game showcases star power with LeBron James and the Cavs trying to extend their winning streak against Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets. The late game is a rematch of two old foes when the Lakers host the Celtics.
Nuggets (35-18 SU, 24-26-3 ATS) at Cavaliers (43-11 SU, 28-25-1 ATS)
Denver and Cleveland are the last teams to take the court after the All-Star Break, as the Nuggets head east for a two-game trip that starts at Quicken Loans Arena against the streaking Cavs.
The Nuggets ended the first half with a disappointing home loss to the Spurs, but Denver is still atop the very competitive Northwest Division. The team received very sobering news on Tuesday when head coach George Karl announced that he was diagnosed with neck and throat cancer. The cancer is treatable, as Karl will miss time eventually due to radiation and chemotherapy, but the coach is expected to be on the sidelines Thursday night.
Denver wrapped up the first half going just 2-3 SU and 2-2-1 ATS, but three of those games were played without Anthony, who was suffering from a sprained ankle. The Nuggets are 4-1-2 ATS the last seven as a road underdog, as each game was with Anthony sidelined.
The Cavs are riding a 13-game winning streak, while owning a profitable 8-5 ATS mark during this run. Cleveland has captured 15 of its last 16, with the lone loss coming on the Sundiata Gaines' buzzer-beater at Utah on January 14 by one point. Prior to that heartbreaking setback, the previous defeat for Mike Brown's club came at Denver on January 8, as the Nuggets knocked off the Cavs, 99-97 as four-point 'dogs. Anthony sat out that game with his ankle injury, but Chauncey Billups picked up the slack with 23 points.
Thursday's contest wraps up a seven-game homestand for the Cavs, who have beaten one substantial team in this stretch. That club was Orlando last Thursday prior to the All-Star Break, a wild 115-106 victory in which the Cavs cashed as six-point favorites. Cleveland is 5-2 ATS the last seven home games, with the two non-covers coming as heavy 'chalk' of at least 12 points against the Knicks and Nets.
The Nuggets own a perfect 6-0-1 ATS mark as an underdog of at least four points, while going 6-1 SU in this pointspread range. The Cavs are 6-4 ATS this season as single-digit home favorites, including covers over the Lakers, Magic, Suns, and Mavs. Denver is 8-5 ATS and 10-3 SU playing the first game of a back-to-back, as the Nuggets head to Washington on Friday to battle the Wizards.
Celtics (33-18 SU, 19-31-1 ATS) at Lakers (42-13 SU, 25-28-2 ATS)
There's not much fluff surrounding this matchup, just basically Celtics and Lakers locking horns for the second time this season. The first matchup lived up to the classic billing with Kobe Bryant nailing the game-winning shot in the final seconds to give Los Angeles a 90-89 victory in Beantown.
The Lakers have played each of the last four games without Bryant, who is resting a sprained ankle suffered against the Bobcats on February 3. The Champs haven't missed a beat, winning all four games, while covering three times. The only non-cover came in Tuesday night's home victory over the Warriors, 104-94 as 13-point 'chalk.'
The Celtics edged by the Kings on Tuesday, 95-92, but failed to cash as 5 ½-point road favorites. That non-cover was the fifth straight ATS loss by Boston, all when laying points. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen returned in Sacramento, as Pierce missed four games prior to the break and Allen sat out at New Orleans due to injury.
Both these teams have played to plenty of 'unders' recently, with the Lakers nailing the 'under' in seven of the last nine, while the C's are riding a run of 'unders' in six of the previous seven. Boston has scored 100 points or less in 13 of the last 14 games, but only two of the Celtics' opponents have broken the century mark.
Since falling in the Finals in six games back in 2008, the Lakers have beaten the Celtics three times. The last two victories have each come by one point, including a 110-109 overtime triumph by the Lakers last February in Boston.
Bryant is listed as 'questionable' for Thursday's matchup, as the Lakers will be off for four days following this contest, traveling to Memphis on Tuesday.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need To Know: NBA doubleheader on TNT
By RICKY DIMON
Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6, 206)
Coach of the Month vs. Player of the Month
Thursday night’s showdown features two of the hottest teams in the NBA, and the league bestowed its January awards accordingly. Denver coach George Karl won NBA Western Conference Coach of the Month honors and LeBron James was named NBA Eastern Conference Player of the Month.
The Nuggets (35-18) went 12-3 in January and their relative cooling off period in early February can be attributed to the fact that Carmelo Anthony missed eight games with an ankle injury. Anthony, however, returned for the team’s final two games before the break and was healthy enough to play in the All-Star Game, in which he a missed a game-winning 3-point attempt at the buzzer.
Cleveland (43-11) also went 12-3 for the month of January as LeBron averaged 30.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists. Unlike Denver, the Cavaliers have been able to maintain their torrid pace amidst injuries. Even with Mo Williams (shoulder) and Delonte West (finger) out of the lineup, the Cavs are still in the midst of a 13-game winning streak. They have not lost since January 14 and since December 20 they have a mere three setbacks, none of which have come by more than three points.
West missed nine games due to his broken finger but returned the Thursday before All-Star Weekend in a 115-106 win over Orlando. Williams, on the other hand, will be sidelined for at least one more week.
Bigger than basketball
While the Cavs have a few trivial injuries to deal with, Karl is suddenly faced with something much worse—cancer. Karl, who survived prostate cancer five years ago, announced on Tuesday that he will miss various games and practices over the next six weeks to undergo radiation treatment for throat cancer.
“I don't think I'm a guy who needs sympathy, but I do need support. The major desire for me is to kick this cancer's butt and stay with a team that I think can win a championship.”
Karl already knows he will miss road trips to Golden State on February 25 and to Minnesota on March 10, but—amidst obvious distraction—he will be on the sideline in Cleveland.
Prior engagement
With a full team intact, the Cavs traveled to Denver on January 8 and fell 99-97. The Nuggets, who were 4-point underdogs, boasted five players in double-figures led by Chauncey Billups with 23 points and Nene with 20. Denver was out-rebounded 45-33 and shot 44.9 percent to Cleveland’s 46.7 percent, but the hosts forced the Cavs into 19 turnovers.
Trending topics
- Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Cavaliers.
- Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
- Over is 6-1 in Nuggets last seven vs. Eastern Conference.
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
Kobe or not Kobe?
After skipping the All-Star Game with a high ankle sprain, Kobe Bryant was expected to return against Golden State Tuesday. Although that did not happen, the Lakers (42-13) improved to 4-0 without their star after a 104-94 home win over the Warriors. Shannon Brown, a dud in the dunk contest, exploded for 27 points and 10 rebounds.
Kobe practiced on Monday and looked OK, but, according to coach Phil Jackson, “just didn't feel like he had enough strength in the leg to really be explosive.”
“It's purely up to him,” Jackson said of Kobe’s status for the Thursday night showdown against Boston. “We'll encourage him to play if he's ready. If he's not, that's OK.”
All signs point to a return, but nothing had been confirmed as of Wednesday afternoon.
Trade winds
With the NBA trade deadline looming later this week, the Celtics (33-18) are not exempt for the swirling trade rumors. Not only are the Celtics actively pursuing slam dunk champion Nate Robinson of the Knicks, but Ray Allen could be on the way out of Boston.
The veteran sharpshooter, however, is unfazed by it.
“We're lucky to be part of an organization that wants to win,” Allen explained. “From that aspect, winning a championship is not guaranteed. That's why we're all fortunate to be here. If that changes with me, I have to move on and figure out the best way that I can help myself.”
For now, the Celtics are doing just fine with their current deck of cards. Kevin Garnett is back from injury and the team is coming off a 95-92 win at Sacramento on Tuesday. Allen, despite rumors, contributed 15 points.
Prior engagement
This season’s only previous meeting between the two teams came just over two weeks ago on January 31 in Boston. The Celtics led almost the entire second half until Kobe sank a game-winning jumper to give Los Angeles a 90-89 win. The Lakers, who were 1-point favorites, got 19 points from both Kobe and Andrew Bynum while Rajon Rondo paced Boston with 21 points and 12 assists.
Trending topics
- Celtics are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
- Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.
- Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
- Under is 4-0 in Lakers last four overall.
NBA RoundUp For 2/18
By Dan Bebe
Nuggets @ Cavs - Cleveland by 6 with a total of 206. This is quite the opening act! The Cavs, winners of 13 in a row straight up (8-5 ATS), play host to the Nuggets, and neither team has played since the All Star Break. Unfortunately, that makes this game a little bit funny. The lead dog on each team spent the All Star weekend in Dallas, taking in the festivities, and Melo had probably the strongest game of anyone on the West squad (arguably, at least). It's not at all uncommon for these clubs to be a little rusty from the perimeter. What we've seen over the last two days, with teams coming out of the Break, is that home teams seem to have a solid advantage. I worry, though, that the Cavs have basically maxed out, in terms of value against the spread. We were able to back Cleveland last Thursday when they hosted Orlando, but we actually had value there with the Cavs coming off back-to-back failed covers against the Nets and Knicks, and the Magic coming off a blowout win over the Bulls. This time around, we don't really have any "previous game" to look at for information on the value. The Nuggets played a complete and utter stinker in their final game before the All Star Break, but that was clearly a situation where they were ready for some time off, and the Spurs came to town wanting to make a statement going into the Break. I don't believe those games last Thursday have any bearing on how this one plays out. There are certainly some angles involved in this game, but before we discuss, I feel it's worthwhile to point out that both of these teams play again tomorrow, and both play exceedingly weak competition. The best value might be to fade these teams in the letdown game tomorrow, but hey, let's see what we can find right now. This is, believe it or not, a revenge game for the Cavs, who lost to the Nuggets back on January 8. In fact, the last two games Cleveland has lost have been heartbreakers in Denver and in Utah, so this team apparently can't quite get it done in altitude. Too bad for Denver this game is, roughly, at sea level in Ohio. So, assuming that Lebron wants to strut his stuff against buddy Carmelo, and assuming the Cavs are playing with a certain level of revenge, surely they have to be the lean, right? Well, not necessarily. This first game out of the Break can start out so many different ways, that I'm inclined to think Chauncey Billups is going to make a huge difference and keep this thing relatively close down the stretch. I have no strong lean on the side as of yet, though I'm inclined to believe the Nuggets make a game of it, so I suppose the small lean is to Denver. On the total, I'm torn between the prospect of a cold-shooting start for both teams and the fact that both clubs have been running the ball more lately. I have a very slight early lean to the Under, but that is subject to change.
Celtics @ Lakers - This line is OFF. Another fun one, with both teams coming off look-ahead spots, where neither covered their last game, but each team picked up a win. Boston got a narrow victory in Sacramento, though really, if the Kings could make a few free throws, Boston loses that game, and the Lakers let the Warriors hang around until about the 4 minute mark, then laid a beating on Golden State down the stretch. The question around this game, to no one's surprise, is whether Kobe's playing. The Lakers have looked very strong without him, playing a slow, possession game, and really, this type of high-profile contest is where the defense really reigns supreme. I have to say, though, that I believe when this line comes out, we're going to actually be getting some value on the Celtics, and I only hope Kobe DOES make his return to inflate the line by an additional 2 to 2.5 points. Boston has lost 5 straight ATS, which makes them an uglier and uglier bet against the best teams in the NBA, and we can probably use the public's perception against them. Unfortunately, if Kobe sits another one out, I'm not sure we get that same value on Boston, and right now, I believe Kobe's status is "doubtful." On the total, both teams have actually been playing to the Under, but we have to wait and see where this line comes out. The Lakers have been playing a ton of defense and really cleaning the glass nicely with Kobe out. The Celtics have chemistry issues, and some serious lapses in focus. I can't help but think the Celtics are the team that no one wants to back right now, so I lean in their direction. I also like the Under, but we'll see how low oddsmakers bring this line out, especially if Kobe's not playing.
Denver (35-18, 24-26-3 ATS) at Cleveland (43-11, 28-25-1 ATS)
The Nuggets open the second half of the season with a stop at Quicken Loans Arena, where they’ll try to put a stop to the Cavaliers’ 13-game winning streak.
Denver has been idle since losing 111-92 at home to the Spurs a week ago tonight, falling as a 5½-point favorite. The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses over the last six games (2-3-1 ATS), but have won three of five on the road (3-1-1 ATS). They are 3-0-1 ATS this season after getting three or more days off, but they are just 12-13 (10-13-2 ATS) on the highway.
Cleveland wraps up a six-game homestand tonight with some familiar faces gone from the lineup and some new ones in. The Cavaliers last night acquired Antawn Jamison of the Wizards and Sebastian Telfair from the Clippers in a six-player, three-team deal that sent longtime Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas to the Wizards.
Cleveland won 13 straight (8-5 ATS) going into the All-Star break, including a 115-106 win over the Magic as a six-point home favorite a week ago tonight. The Cavs are 24-3 at home (but just 12-15 ATS) and they’re 3-1 ATS after three or more days off this season.
Denver has won six of the last eight meetings in this series (SU and ATS) dating back to 2006. That includes a 99-97 home win back on Jan. 8, cashing as a four-point pup in game Denver played without All-Star Carmelo Anthony. However, the Cavaliers won last year’s meeting in Cleveland 110-99, covering the seven-point spread.
The Nuggets are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 against Central Division teams, but they are riding positive ATS streaks of 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 7-3 on Thursday, 4-1-2 as a road ‘dog and 6-1 after a non-cover. The Cavs are on several ATS streaks as well, including 7-2 overall, 13-6-1 against Northwest Division teams, 4-0-1 on Thursday, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against Western Conference foes.
Denver is on “under” streaks of 35-16 as an underdog, 10-4 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on Thursday and 6-2 on the road against teams with winning home records. Meanwhile, Cleveland is on a plethora of “over” runs, including 3-0-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home against teams with losing road records, 7-3-1 on Thursday, 5-2-1 against Northwest Division teams and 6-2-1 as a favorite of five to 10½-points.
Finally, in this series, the under has been the play in two straight and six of the last nine.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Boston (33-18, 19-3-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (42-13, 25-28-2 ATS)
The Lakers opened the second half of the season Tuesday with their fourth straight win – all without injured superstar Kobe Bryant – and hope to continue their winning ways when they host the rival Celtics inside the Staples Center.
Boston was also in action on Tuesday, grabbing a 95-92 win in Sacramento but falling short as a 5½-point favorite. While the Celtics have won four of their last six, they have failed to cover in any of the last five contests and are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14. Doc Rivers’ squad is 18-9 (13-14 ATS) on the road this season, and the offense has stalled a bit lately, managing just 94.4 points per game over the last five overall.
Bryant is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest with his injured ankle. On Tuesday, his teammates scored their fourth straight victory with a 104-94 triumph over the Warriors, but came up short as a 13-point home favorite. All five starters managed scored in double figures, with backup guard Shannon Brown (Bryant’s replacement) leading the way with 27 points and 10 rebounds.
Los Angeles has won the last three in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS), including a thrilling 90-89 victory in Boston back on Jan. 31, pushing as a one-point road chalk. The Lakers have won all three meetings since losing in the 2008 NBA Finals to the Celtics in six games. Boston, which cashed in all six NBA Finals games, is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in Hollywood. Also, the ‘dog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight.
Currently, the Celtics are on nothing but negative ATS slides, including 1-10-1 against Pacific Division teams, 3-12-1 overall, 0-5-1 after a day off, 0-4-1 after a non-cover and 1-7 after a straight-up win. Los Angeles is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at Staples, but otherwise is on pointspread surges of 4-1 on Thursday, 4-1-1 against Atlantic Division teams and 5-2 after a non-cover.
It’s been all “unders” for Boston lately, including 4-0 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 6-1 against Pacific Division teams, 19-8 on Thursday and 28-12 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600. The Lakers have topped the total in five of seven against the Eastern Conference, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 6-1 after a straight-up win, 20-7 on Thursday and 8-3 at home against teams with winning road records.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOS ANGELES and UNDER
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Nuggets at Cavaliers – The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since January 02, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since November 26, 2008 at home when they shot at least 50% from the field in each of their last two games.
Celtics at Lakers – The Celtics are 0-9 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since February 19, 2009 after a road win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since March 23, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS (-2.8 ppg) since February 13, 2008 after a game on the road in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 13, 2009 off a win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points. The Lakers are 0-7-1 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since December 09, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers.
Tips and Trends
Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Nuggets: Denver starts the 2nd half of the season in a bit of shock. Denver enters the 2nd half of the season with the 2nd best record in the Western Conference at 35-18 SU. However, Coach George Karl just announced he has throat snd neck cancer, forcing him to miss some to be determined games. This news came as a shock to his team, but will likely have them playing focused and hard for their coach. The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses since the beginning of February, going 3-3 SU in that span. The Nuggets are 12-13 SU and 10-13-2 ATS on the road this season. The Nuggets are 7-5 SU and 6-3-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Denver has only won back to back games ATS once since December 7th. Denver averages over 107 PPG, the 3rd most in the NBA. F Carmelo Anthony leads the Nuggets in scoring and is 3rd in the NBA with 29.2 PPG this season. PG Chauncey Billups averages 19.5 PPG and a team high 6.2 APG this season for Denver.
Nuggets are 10-1-1 ATS last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 10-4 last 14 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - F Kenyon Martin (knee) is questionable.
F Renaldo Balkman (back) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 96
Cavaliers (-6, O/U 206): Cleveland enters the 2nd half of the season with the overall best record in the NBA, 43-11 SU. The Cavaliers just announced a trade this evening, acquiring F Antawn Jamison from the Wizards. The rich get richer, and the Cavaliers appear to be the overwhelming choice to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. Cleveland is 24-3 SU and 12-15 ATS at home this season. The Cavaliers are 15-13 ATS a single digit favorite this season. Cleveland has surged into the best record in the NBA thanks to a franchise tying 13 game SU winning streak that is currently active. The Cavaliers have struggled recently to the Nuggets, as they've lost 4 of the past 6 meetings SU at home to the Nuggets. The Cavs also lost earlier this year to the Nuggets, 97-99 as 4 point favorites. F Lebron James leads the NBA in scoring with 29.9 PPG this season. James has been simply amazing his last 6 games, averaging 33.5 PPG and 11 APG.
Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 6-1-1 last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Key Injuries - G Mo Williams (shoulder) is out.
F Leon Powe (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 102 (UNDER - Total of the Day)