What Bettors Need To Know: NBA on TNT doubleheader
By RICKY DIMON
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
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Cleveland (44-14, 28-29-1 ATS) won its first game in three tries with newest Cavalier Antawn Jamison, pulling out a 105-95 home victory over the New Orleans Hornets Tuesday night.
Jamison made 7-of-14 field goals and had 18 points, six rebounds and two steals for his best outing in his new uniform. Six Cavaliers put up double figures in points, including LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal with 20 apiece. A balanced offensive attack also had five players attempt at least 10 shots and no single player took more than 16 field goal attempts.
While the offense clicked, Cleveland is still unhappy with its defensive play.
“We've played some great defense over the course of the year,” LeBron said after the win. “We know in order to win ball games consistently, we have to be good defensively. We'll get it back.”
“We're definitely not where we want to be right now,” added coach Mike Brown, whose team just ended a three-game losing streak. “We've got to fight through it.”
Trade of their own
The Celtics (36-19, 21-33-1 ATS) also made a deadline deal, acquiring Nate Robinson from the Knicks in exchange for Eddie House. Robinson made his Boston debut Tuesday night and it just happened to come against the Knicks. Making headlines but few baskets, Robinson scored four points in 16 minutes as his new team prevailed 110-106.
Another thing Boston had in common with Cleveland earlier this week is dismal defense. The Celtics saw New York shoot better than 52 percent from the floor and they were almost helpless against Knicks’ big man David Lee, who recorded 28 points and 15 rebounds.
The defense had better clamp down Thursday because Boston could be without leading scorer Paul Pierce (17.9 ppg) due to a sprained right thumb.
“It's a little banged up right now, so it's something I'm going to think about—taking a few days off and letting it heal,” Pierce said on Monday prior to sitting out Tuesday’s contest.
Prior engagement
The Cavs and Celtics have met just once this season and it was the very first game of the year for both teams. Boston went into Cleveland on October 27 as a 5-point underdog and came away with a 95-89 victory. The Cavs, who were playing without Delonte West, got 38 points from James but allowed the Celtics to shoot 47.4 percent from 3-point range (9-for-19).
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The Cavs are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 2-7 in their last nine overall and 0-4 in their last four against the East.
Cleveland (27-28-3 O/U) has not been a good over/under play this season, while Boston (25-29-1 O/U) has been a mediocre under play. The under is 6-2 in the Celtics’ last eight overall, but the over is 5-2-1 in the Cavs’ last eight contests overall.
The Celtics are 2-6 ATS in their last seven home games against Cleveland.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (+6, 227)
Rockiness in the Rockies
Dating back to February 1, the Nuggets (37-19, 26-27-3 ATS) have been alternating wins and losses. As a result, they are 5-4 (4-4-1 ATS) this month, having opened with an overtime win against Sacramento and most recently handling Boston 114-105 Sunday.
“We're still kind of inconsistent at times,” said Kenyon Martin, stating the obvious. “If we can kind of lock in and do the stuff that we do well and positive in the games that we win, and just learn from the mistakes that we make, that will go a long way for us.”
Case in point: the Nuggets are 6-0 this season against the Lakers, Cavs, Celtics and Magic.
“If we come out focused like we did (against Boston), like we did against the Lakers, like we did against Cleveland, we're a tough team to play with,” noted Carmelo Anthony.
Now the issue is getting the job done against a disappointing squad like Golden State (16-40, 31-24-1 ATS).
Just like pops
The Warriors have also been alternating wins and losses over the past two weeks, starting with a loss to Dallas on February 8 and 30-point win over the Clippers two days later. Golden State is 3-4 in that span (4-3 ATS), coming off 110-102 home loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday night.
While winning three of seven is nothing special, it’s a lot better than the nine-game losing streak Golden State endured in late January and early February. Part of the reason for the minor improvement is increased time for rookie Stephen Curry (15.3 ppg, 5.1 apg) at point guard. In their first 50 games, the Warriors scored at least 35 fastbreak points on four occasions. They have reached that mark in three of their last five outings with Curry seeing more time at the point, including two of those games with Monta Ellis on the sidelines.
In the meantime, Curry, the son of former NBA sharpshooter Dell Curry, has maintained his scoring prowess. He has tallied double figures in eight straight games, has scored more than 30 points in two of his past six outings and led a furious comeback against the Hawks by going 13-of-18 from the floor in a 108-104 victory Sunday.
Prior engagements
The Nuggets and Warriors have already played three times this season and all three games were shootouts. Denver won the first two contests at home (135-107 December 1 and 123-122 on January 5) then visited Golden State on January 20 and pulled out a 123-118 overtime thriller. The Warriors covered the spread in each of the past two outings.
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The Nuggets are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with losing SU records. The Warriors are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 against the Western Conference.
Both Denver (27-29 O/U) and Golden State (26-30 O/U) have leaned slightly toward the under, which is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last five overall. The over, however, is 5-2 in the Nuggets’ last seven overall.
The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head encounters.
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
The one thing you learn when wagering on the NBA is things often balance out in the long run. If you follow the league nightly, in particular the last three days, then you would strongly agree with the statement.
Bettors taking the points or what some call “Dog Players” profited very nicely on Monday and Tuesday as the underdogs went 9-4 straight up and 11-2 against the spread.
Wednesday’s card featured 11 games and the favorites bounced back with an eye opening 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS mark. Portland was the lone underdog to win outright, capturing a 101-87 decision over Toronto at Air Canada Centre, on zero days rest too.
Tonight’s slate features three contests, including the weekly double-header on TNT. Cleveland visits Boston in the first showdown, while Denver and Golden State conclude the night from the Bay Area.
Cleveland (44-14 SU, 28-30 ATS) at Boston (36-19 SU, 21-34 ATS)
Two of the top contenders in the East square off from TD Garden when the Cavaliers and Celtics battle at 8:05 p.m. ET. This is a tough game to gauge since both teams are in a bit of funk, especially when you look at their numbers versus the point-spread.
Cleveland started the second-half of the regular season with three straight losses both straight up and against the spread but it stopped the bleeding on Tuesday with a 105-95 win against New Orleans. The Cavs failed to cover as 11 ½-point underdogs and are now in a 1-6 ATS slump in their last seven.
Despite the recent speed bump for Cleveland, it’s hard to ignore how good Mike Brown’s team has been on the road (19-10 SU, 16-13 ATS). And when you look at Boston’s home record (16-9 SU, 6-19 ATS), you can understand why the Cavs have opened up as 1 ½-point favorites in tonight’s battle.
The line has moved back in Boston’s favor, even though the team is just 5-5 in its last 10 at home. It’s fair to say the Celtics are a bully club this year, often beating the weaker squads but failing to step up when it matters. The five losses during this recent stretch came against the Bulls, Hawks, Mavericks, Lakers and Magic. With Cleveland owning the best record in the league, tonight’s game is a nice barometer.
The two teams haven’t met since opening night, when Boston held off Cleveland 95-89 as a five-point underdog on the road. The victory for the Celtics was big for a couple reasons because it ended an 11-game losing streak in Cleveland for Doc Rivers’ team and it snapped a 16-game skid by visiting teams in the head-to-head series.
The first meeting on Oct. 27 saw the combined 184 points barely slide ‘over’ the closing number if 183 ½. Low totals have been common in this series, but that could change tonight. The Cavs have watched the ‘over’ cash in six of their last eight, and the Celtics’ defense didn’t look good recently in a loss at Denver (105-114) on Sunday or in Wednesday’s close-call victory at home over New York (110-106) on Wednesday.
The Celtics could be without Paul Pierce (thumb) on Thursday and Marquis Daniels (flu) is ‘questionable’ as well.
Denver (37-19 SU, 26-28 ATS) at Golden State (16-40 SU, 31-24 ATS)
The fourth and final meeting between the Nuggets and Warriors takes place tonight from Oakland and if this encounter is anything like the first three, then get ready to watch the scoreboard get lit up. The three previous battles saw both clubs put up 242, 245 and 241 combined points. Denver was the victor in all of the battles, but Golden State managed to cover two, including a 123-122 loss on Jan. 15 as a 5 ½-point underdog on Jan. 15 from Oracle Arena. The Nuggets opened as six-point favorites and the total is hovering between 227 and 228 points.
Twelve of Golden State’s 16 victories this season have come at home, and Don Nelson’s club owns a positive 16-13 record against the spread on their hardwood. Consistency has been a major issue for the Warriors and it’s showed in their last two home games. After rallying past the Hawks (108-104) on Sunday, the team was bounced by Philadelphia (110-102) in wire-to-wire fashion. The group has averaged 111 PPG, but also given up 110 PPG. The ‘over’ has gone 15-14.
Denver started the All-Star break with two solid victories against Eastern Conference contenders, beating Cleveland (118-116) on the road last Thursday before stopping Boston (114-105) at home on Sunday. Unfortunately, George Karl’s team had a hiccup in between on Friday, which resulted in a setback at Washington (97-107).
Most would agree that Golden State is on the same level with Washington as is Detroit, who visits the Pepsi Center on Friday to face the Nuggets. With that being said, does Denver come with its “A” game tonight and run the Warriors out of their own building? Even though the team hasn’t been 100 percent for the majority of their games, a 13-14 road record is disappointing. As a road favorite, Denver is 4-11 against the number.
The problem outside of Colorado has been the offense, which is averaging nine points less (112-103) than what it does at home. This drop has reflected in totals too, with the ‘under’ producing a 16-11 mark.
Another angle to weigh tonight is the let-down and look-ahead spot for Denver, who is off the victory against the Celtics plus it has a big showdown against the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. It’s still two days away but a win at Staples Center would help the Nuggets inch closer to the top seed in the West, plus they would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over L.A. as well.
This will mark the 15th back-to-back set for Denver this season. Betting the Nuggets on zero days rest (6-8 SU, 5-7-2 ATS) hasn’t been a good investment this year, but backing the club in the first game has been very profitable (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS). The ‘under’ has gone 10-4 over this run.
Gamblers can follow along at 10:35 p.m. ET.
Buck it up!
Don’t look now but Milwaukee on fire! Scott Skiles team started the second-half of the season with a demoralizing home loss to Houston (99-127), which saw the Rockets hit 16 bombs from 3-point land. Since the setback, Milwaukee has responded with four straight wins and covers. Dare I say it but Andrew Bogut is playing great basketball, John Salmons was a nice pickup and this team has a good core of veterans in Jerry Stackhouse, Luke Ridnour and Kurt Thomas to keep things positive.
I was surprised to see Milwaukee play five games this week, which is the most I’ve seen all year. So far, two wins albeit against the Knicks and Hornets. Tonight, they head to Indiana but they’ve already defeated the Pacers twice this season. After this game, the team heads to Miami on Saturday and then back up to Atlanta on Sunday. It’s hard to fade a hot club but those spots will look very tempting.
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NBA RoundUp For 2/25
By Dan Bebe
Bucks @ Pacers - This line is OFF. This is a battle of two teams playing back-to-back games, but the difference is that the Bucks are one of the League's better back-to-back teams, at 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS, while the Pacers are quite average, at 4-12 SU but 8-8 ATS (1-4 at home) in these spots. I would imagine we'll see this game pretty close to a Pick, but whatever the spread, I'm guessing it won't be a huge factor in deciding which team to favor. Fact of the matter is that this is just not a good spot for Indiana. I realize they're significantly better at home than on the road, where they generally do a better job of imposing their tempo, but a few key angles jump out as reasons to be scared of taking the Pacers. First, the Pacers are playing their first game home after a 4-game road trip through Texas and Chicago, so they're not likely to be comfortable returning to their building. Second, they play almost no defense, which is a disastrous way to try to compete with Milwaukee. The Bucks are a ridiculous 20-5 ATS against teams that allow over 100 points per game! One thing to note: the Pacers are on double-revenge, but at the same time, I'm not sure they are good enough to compete with the Bucks. So we need to weigh this little predicament. This line is going to come out, potentially, adjusted for revenge, and it's our job to determine if it's a tangible change in value, or nothing at all. Therein lies the tipping point for this game. I do have an early lean to Milwaukee based on the above notes, and I also think the Under has some value, as Milwaukee has really done a nice job this year of slowing down breakneck opponents.
Cavaliers @ Celtics - This line is OFF. Ah, the start of the TNT double-header, and easily the more interesting of the two games. The Cleveland Cavaliers, fresh off a win (and failed cover) against the Hornets at home, and riding a 4-game ATS losing streak, bring their traveling circus to Boston. The Cavs are also just 1-6 in their last 7 ATS, so this is clearly a team that peaked somewhere near win number 9 in their 13-game winning streak, and have since been vastly overvalued. That being said, this game has all the makings of the one that turns things around, so we need to be careful before just writing Cleveland off as a bad value. As we've talked about multiple times, the Cavs are a very strong 17-10 ATS against winning teams, meaning they're just 11-19 ATS against the scrubs of the NBA. This is a team that has its sights set on an NBA Championship, and thus, games with the NBA elite are the ones they take seriously. Lebron wants his teammates to taste victory against the best the League has to offer, but when you're giving a full 100% effort against half the NBA, you're going to want to go at 80% against the other teams. Fortunately here, Boston is among the elite, so we can be pretty sure we'll see a strong effort, if nothing else, from Cleveland. The Cavs are also on something of a revenge spot, and we'll have to wait and see if that gets factored into the line at all. Boston beat Cleveland in Ohio way back at the beginning of the season, and the Cavs still haven't had a chance to take a shot back at the Celtics. Cleveland, though, needs to work out some kinks on the defensive end, as they've allowed 5 of their last 7 opponents to break 100 points, despite allowing just an average 95 ppg to their opponents on the season. When a club is giving up at least 5 more points than they normally do, it's going to be awfully tough to win, and it's going to be even tougher to cover. So, how does this one play out? Well, Boston has been playing better since the All Star Break, but I'm still not convinced this team belongs at the top of the power rankings. In my opinion, despite winning 4 of 5 games since the Break, they haven't really impressed me, aside from the walloping they laid on the Blazers. They have allowed Denver and New York to score 114 and 106 points, respectively, in their last 2 games, and had to hang on to beat the Knicks at home on Tuesday. Like the Cavs, the Celtics haven't been covering many games, managing just a 2-7 ATS record in their last 9 games. So, here we have two of the East's best, each failing to play up to the expectations set in the line, and really, we shouldn't be surprised. These are the teams that come with a huge premium, and in the very long term, they should probably be losing propositions. But when they play one another, we can generally ignore the "premium" and handicap more on the situational spot, which I believe favors the Cavs. Cleveland is gaining rhythm and chemistry every day, and Boston is likely going to be without Paul Pierce (or if he plays, a version of Pierce with the flu), and while the line adjustment might not be to our liking, I expect this thing to come out close to a Pick, and I lean Cavaliers. I also think both teams are going to make a conscious effort to push the ball against tough opposing defenses, and I believe the public perceives both of these teams as extremely defense-heavy. If Boston wasn't coming off 2 ultra high-scoring games, I might think the Over would have some legs, but a lot is going to depend on where the books bring this line out. The Cavs are going to try to play some defense, but I just feel they need a game or two more to get all the rotations/assignments right on the defensive end.
Nuggets @ Warriors - Denver by 6 with a total of 227.5. At first glance, this one feels like the Nuggets should just steamroll the Warriors, but let's look back at the season series. Yes, the Nuggets are a perfect 3-0 against the Warriors this season, and when all is said and done, they should have a pretty solid chance of sweeping at the end of the night, but there's far, far more to it than that. If we exclude the first meeting of the season, which was the classic "team coming from the West coast into altitude" situation, and the Warriors subsequent blowout loss, we have two of the most hotly contested basketball games for any teams all season long. I know, you're thinking I'm nuts, but let's address them one by one. January 5, in Denver, the Warriors took on a shorthanded Nuggets team as just a 5.5 point road underdog. The Warriors actually had the lead with the clock ticking down, and as you may recall, Monta Ellis was whistled for a silly foul on J.R. Smith, who was attempting a desperation 35-footer. Smith calmly stepped to the foul line, hit the free throws, and the Nuggets won 123-122. Disappointing? Hell yes. So, how did the Warriors respond? Fast forward 15 days, when the Nuggets came to Oakland as a 6-point road favorite. Two things jump out. First, that's the exact same line we're seeing on this game, and second, that's basically the same line as the shorthanded Nuggets laid at home without Carmelo and Chauncey. I suppose it's not hugely important that we know that Carmelo and Chauncey are worth about 6 points on the spread, but the fact that the line hasn't changed between their last meeting and this one is very interesting. I suppose there's no real reason to chance the spread, since Denver won that game by 5 points. The Warriors are definitely going to be psyched up for this one, a big TV game where Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis can really try to shine. This is Denver's first game since defeating Boston 4 days ago at home, so I just wonder how focused they will be to really blow out a lesser team. I don't doubt Denver wants to win, but the Warriors just have a way of taking Denver's running style and cranking it up even one more notch; it's almost like the Warriors push the pace so hard that Denver gets sucked in and makes a few mistakes that allow Golden State to keep the game close. I like the Warriors to bounce back off an ugly game against the Sixers and keep this one competitive. I also like the Under. When two supremely high-octane teams play like this, in a big game, there is always going to be value on the Under. Also, folks that look at their previous meetings this year will see 145, 142 and 141 points and think this is a shoe-in. Well, consider this a bookmaker tipping his hand. I like the Under quite a bit.
Cleveland (44-14, 28-29-1 ATS) at Boston (36-19, 21-33-1 ATS)
Having snapped their three-game losing streak at home on Tuesday, the Cavaliers now make the trek to TD Garden for a matchup against a Celtics’ squad that has won four of five since the All-Star break.
Cleveland got back in the win column on Tuesday with a 105-95 victory over the Hornets, but the Cavs came up short as 11½-point favorites, failing to cash for the fourth straight time and the sixth time in the last seven games. The 1-6 ATS slump comes on the heels of a six-game spread-covering surge. LeBron James had 20 points and 13 assists against New Orleans on Tuesday with Shaquille O’Neal adding 20 points and seven rebounds.
Boston got double-digit scoring from all five starters and beat the Knicks on Tuesday 110-106, coming up well short as a 9½-point home favorite. The Celtics are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall, including back-to-back non-covers in their last two. Ray Allen led the charge against New York with 24 points with Rajon Rondo adding 15 points and 16 assists.
In the season-opener this season, Boston went to Cleveland and scored a 95-89 victory as a five-point ‘dog. That snapped a nine-game winning streak by the home team in this series that had seen the Cavaliers cash in eight of the nine. Cleveland is still 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 series clashes, including 6-2 ATS in the last eight played in Beantown.
The Cavaliers are on ATS slides of 0-4 overall, 1-4 against Eastern Conference teams and 0-4 against Atlantic Division teams, but they are on positive pointspread surges of 4-1-1 on Thursday and 7-3 after getting one day off. Boston is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 on Thursday, but from their the pointspread trends turn negative, including 16-34-1 at home, 1-5-1 after a non-cover, 1-5 against Central Division teams, 1-7-1 after getting a day off and 0-6-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
Cleveland is on several “over” streaks, including 5-2-1 overall, 8-3-1 on Thursday, 4-1-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 4-0-1 after a straight-up win. On the opposite side, the Celtics are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 20-8 on Thursday, 6-1 after a non-cover and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Lastly, three of the last four meetings in Boston have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Cavaliers at Celtics – The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since March 10, 2008 when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since March 21, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Celtics are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since March 01, 2009 at home after a game in which they had at least thirty assists.
Bucks at Pacers – The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since December 02, 2009 after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bucks are 0-7 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since January 27, 2001 as a favorite when they have won and covered their last four games. The Pacers are 6-0-1 ATS (6.4 ppg) since January 02, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Nuggets at Warriors – The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since December 14, 2009 as a favorite after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since November 06, 2006 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
Tips and Trends
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
Nuggets (-6, O/U 227.5): Tonight will be emotional for Denver, as they play their first game without head coach George Karl since he announced his recent health issues. Denver has the 4th best record in the NBA at 37-19 SU this season. Denver is only 4-4 SU their past 8 games, alternating SU wins with SU losses thanks to a stretch of games where all but one of their opponents had a winning SU record. Ironically, the Wizards were that losing team that beat the Nuggets outright as a 6 point underdog. The Nuggets are 13-14 SU and 11-14-2 ATS on the road this season. Denver is only 4-11 ATS as the listed road favorite this season, and have lost 7 consecutive games ATS in this exact scenario entering tonight. F Carmelo Anthony is 3rd in the NBA in scoring, averaging 29.2 PPG this season. PG Chauncey Billups is averaging nearly 20 PPG and a team high 6.1 APG this season. Denver is 2nd in the NBA in scoring, averaging 107.4 PPG this year. The Nuggets have struggled defensively of late, allowing 7 of their past 8 opponents to score more than 100 PTS.
Nuggets are 0-6 ATS last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Over is 4-0 last 4 vs. a team with a losing SU record.
Key Injuries - G Ty Lawson (thumb) is questionable.
F Renaldo Balkman (back) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 121 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Warriors: Golden St. is looking to avoid a season sweep by Denver, as they've lost all 3 meetings SU this season. Golden St. has allowed Denver to score at least 123 PTS in each contest so far this season. Giving up PTS isn't anything new to the Warriors, as they allow an NBA worst 110.7 PPG this season. Golden St. has allowed 11 of their past 12 opponents to reach the century mark in PTS. The only saving grace for the Warriors is the fact they average 107 PPG, the 3rd highest total in the NBA. Golden St. has scored more than 100 PTS in 9 of their past 13 games. G Monta Ellis leads the Warriors in scoring at nearly 26 PPG. Ellis is 6th in the NBA in scoring, and has a chance to improve those numbers considering he's averaged 35 PPG the past 2 times he's faced Denver. The Warriors are 16-40 SU this season, the 2nd worst record in the Western Conference. While their SU record is dismal, the Warriors are actually a profitable 31-24-1 ATS for the season. Golden St. is 12-17 SU and 16-13 ATS at home this season. The Warriors are 10-7 ATS as the listed home underdog this season.
Warriors are 10-3 ATS last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-0 last 4 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - F Corey Maggette (hamstring) is out.
F Vladimir Radmanovic (achilles) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 113