Thursday's Best NBA Bet
Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors
The Bucks may need to start keeping an entire hospital staff on retainer. Center Andrew Bogut has been bothered by a knee injury, guard John Salmons has a hurting hip and now forward Drew Gooden will be sidelined up to six weeks with a foot injury.
Milwaukee also must continue to monitor the minutes of star guard Brandon Jennings, who just returned late last week from a broken left foot that sidelined him for 19 games as he is on a 24-minute limit.
"We've got a long way to go," Bucks coach Scott Skiles said. "First of all, we've got to get healthy. But we've got to play much better than we've played so far. We're having too many breakdowns on both ends of the floor."
And with the team playing on Wednesday night in Phoenix against the Suns – another team that will try to push the tempo and run against Milwaukee – the team figures to be running on fumes by the end against Golden State.
The Warriors are continuing their up-tempo play, but have added a dash of scoring depth. Guards Steph Curry and Monta Ellis and forward David Lee each have led the team in scoring at least once the past five games. And now recently healed center Andris Biedrins has notched double-doubles in each of the past two games and is averaging 10.5 points and 11 rebounds over that span.
Pick: Golden State
Heat, Magic tip TNT NBA betting twinbill
By: David Schwab
The Miami Heat will be looking to extend their lead in the Southeast Division this Thursday night when they take on the second-place Orlando Magic at the Amway Center.
Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. (PT) and the game will be broadcast nationally on TNT with the Spurs, Lakers contest capping the evening's doubleheader.
All is good once again in South Beach as Miami’s big three are back in the starting lineup after each missed some time recently due to injury. This has led to three straight wins after losing five of its previous six games.
The Heat turned in an impressive 108-103 victory over Oklahoma City this past Sunday as a one-point road underdog. They followed this up with a 117-90 rout of Cleveland as a 17 ½-point home favorite on Monday night. Miami is now 34-14 straight-up on the year and 23-24-1 against the spread. It has a 3½-game lead over Orlando in the division and is three games in back of Boston in the Eastern Conference.
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade continue to account for the bulk of the Heats’ points as each are averaging around 26 a game. James leads the team in assists with 7.3 a game and is third in rebounds with 7.2. Chris Bosh rounds out the trio with 18.5 points and a team-high 8.2 rebounds a game.
Miami is averaging 101.7 points a game while holding its opponents to just 93.9 which is the best point differential in the league at plus 7.7. The Heat have the third-best shooting percentage in the NBA at 47.1 and are seventh from three-point range; hitting 37.9 percent of their attempts. They are also plus 2.5 in rebounds, which is sixth-best in the league.
Orlando continues to fight the good fight in its uphill battle against Miami, but is just 2-3 SU in its last five games. The Magic are coming off a 100-97 loss to Memphis on Monday night as a 1½-point road favorite. Last Friday they were a 1 ½-point road favorite against Chicago, but fell 99-90. The last time they beat a team with a winning record was a 117-107 victory over Dallas as a 5½-point road favorite on Jan.8. Orlando finds itself at 31-18 SU and 21-27-1 ATS. It is currently in fourth-place in the East.
Dwight Howard remains the heart and soul of this team and the only reason it remains competitive night after night. He is averaging 22.4 points and is second in the NBA in rebounds with 13.6 per game. Jason Richardson is the second leading scorer with 14.1 points a game, while Jameer Nelson leads the team in assists with 6.5 a game.
The Magic are just below Miami in average points a game with 100.3 and almost as stingy on defense; giving up an average of 94.7. They are ranked fifth in the league in rebounds with 43.1 per game and have a plus 3.34 advantage over their opponents. Orlando is shooting 46.5 percent from the floor and 36.8 percent from beyond the three-point line.
Miami is 2-3-1 in its last six games on the road and 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games.
Orlando is 1-3 ATS in its last four home games and 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its last six games.
Head-to-head, they split their first two meetings this season with the Heat winning 96-70 on Oct. 29 as a four-point home favorite and the Magic returning the favor with a 104-95 victory as a four-point home favorite on Nov. 24. The total split as well on identical 188½ point lines.
Orlando should open as a 2-3 point favorite but it really will not matter as Miami comes away with the straight-up win on the road this time around.
NBA TNT Doubleheader Preview
By David Chan
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic (-1.5, 196)
The Magic had plenty to say about Miami’s offseason coup of LeBron James and Chris Bosh, who took their talents to South Beach to join Dwyane Wade. The Heat, in turn, are not letting a chance to wage a war of words slip by the wayside.
That sets the stage for a nationally-televised Thursday night showdown that is even spicier than an average meeting between two of the best teams in the league.
“The fact that it’s a division opponent, that means a lot,” James explained. “Being an Orlando team that basically said a lot of things about us in the offseason, that definitely adds a little bit to the fire. So we’re looking forward to the challenge. We can't just sit here and say it’s any old game, because it’s not. We love playing against the best and we love playing divisional opponents, so it should be fun.”
The season series, so far, has done little to settle any differences between the two teams. It is tied up at one apiece, as both teams took care of business at home this fall. Miami (34-14, 23-24-1 ATS) hammered Orlando 96-70 on Oct. 29, easily blowing away the 4-point spread. The Magic, however, got revenge on Nov. 22 with a 104-95 victory, also covering four points.
Interestingly, Miami’s “Big 3” had a bigger game in the loss than it did in the win. James, Wade and Bosh combined for just 52 points in the victory but the Heat out-rebounded Orlando by 11 and limited Howard to 19 points and seven boards. The triumvirate combined for 64 points in the loss, as Howard went for 24 and 18 while five Magic players scored in double figures.
Magic tricked
The Magic have lost three of their last five (1-4 ATS) after going down 100-97 at Memphis Monday. Their two wins in that span came against Indiana, which just fired its coach, and Cleveland, which is in the midst of a 21–game losing streak. Orlando also fell to lowly Detroit in addition to a setback at Chicago.
To make matters worse, starting power forward Brandon Bass sprained his left ankle against Memphis. Bass is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game, but nobody expects him to play. A sore left shoulder kept backup shooting guard J.J. Redick out of Monday’s contest and his status for Thursday is uncertain.
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The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the NBA Southeast.
The over is 6-1 in the Heat’s last seven road games and 5-1 in the Magic’s last six overall. However, the under is 6-1 in Orlando’s last seven games at home.
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams and Miami is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine trips to Orlando.
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers (N/A)
The Lakers (34-15, 21-27-1 ATS) will be looking to make a statement in a showdown between the Western Conference’s top two teams at the Staples Center Thursday night.
They did not have a good showing in this season’s only previous encounter between the two teams, which was a 97-82 Spurs’ blowout in San Antonio, with the home team making a joke out of the 3.5-point spread.
Tim Duncan (two points, four rebounds) and Kobe Bryant (21 points on 8-of-27 shooting) both had sub-par outings, but Duncan’s supporting cast proved to be far superior. No other Lakers players scored more than 10 points. Tony Parker scored 23 points, Richard Jefferson added 15 and DeJuan Blair had a big double-double with 17 points and 15 boards for the Spurs. San Antonio also turned the ball over just nine times to L.A.’s 16 giveaways.
Road-io
For two teams that are leading their conference, both the Spurs and the Lakers are dealing with a decent amount of adversity.
San Antonio (40-8, 28-12-2 ATS) is just getting started with its annual “Rodeo Road Trip”, as the AT&T Center is hosting the San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo. The Spurs’ first of nine games away from home went terribly for them Tuesday. They got hammered by Portland 99-86 with the Blazers’ LaMarcus Aldridge going off for 40 points.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, has lost two of three and is 0-3 ATS in that span. The Lakers got crushed by Boston at home Sunday and needed overtime to beat Houston Tuesday. Andrew Bynum missed Tuesday’s tilt with a bruised left knee, but Lamar Odom started in his place and erupted for 20 points and 20 rebounds.
“It's good,” Bynum said after the game. “I should be back.”
Head coach Phil Jackson, however, sounded less confident, so Bynum will probably be a game-time decision.
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The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games and 0-4 ATS in their last four against the NBA Southwest.
The under is 11-2 in the Spurs’ last 13 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 against the Western Conference.
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games at the Staples Center while the under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the two teams in Los Angeles.
NBA RoundUp for 2/3
by Dan Bebe
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic (-2) with a total of 197
This should be an excellent TNT early game. Unfortunately, in terms of betting angles, we're left a little high and dry. These two teams have faced off twice so far this NBA season, and each team won a home game as a listed 3.5-point favorite. Now, some time later, Orlando comes out as a slightly shorter home favorite, with a total almost 10 points higher. I would advise people not to read too much into the line. I don't believe the total is higher because oddsmakers are trying to bait you into taking any particular play, and I don't think the side is anything more than oddsmakers way of saying that they believe the Heat are just a hair better on a neutral site...and frankly, I agree. Miami plays significantly better defense than Orlando, and while the Magic have the clear edge near the bucket, Wade and James are each accomplished enough, and strong enough, to get to the hoop. Thus, with this game, I wouldn't look too much into any possible situational angles, since each team is going to want the game a good deal, and I don't believe there are any particularly intriguing scheduling quirks. Instead, keep it simple - the Heat are healthy again, and they have the pieces to keep the Magic from scoring. Miami will use the Boston Celtics strategy, and that is defend the pick-and-roll, and make Dwight Howard win the game. That will keep the game slow, and more to Miami's liking - leans to the HEAT and UNDER.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors with a total of N/A
To be honest, I'm not 100% sure why this line is off - I know Bogut was questionable for last night, but surely oddsmakers should know who is playing tonight based on yesterday's shootaround. Oh well. In any event, with Bogut fighting the pain of a bone bruise, Gooden out for a month, Jennings with a minute cap, and Salmons still ailing, the Bucks health, while improving, continues to be the story. The Warriors, meanwhile, remain a strong offensive home team, and though they lost 4 straight to some solid competition, a slight boost in defensive intensity went a long way in Golden State's win over Utah. I believe some of that carries over into this game. The Bucks are going to be coming off a sprint with Phoenix, though Milwaukee has shown an ability to play well in back-to-back spots. Still, for the Bucks, this is the final game of a short 3-game road trip, so I believe that their effort in this one is going to depend heavily on how the contest in Phoenix goes. If Milwaukee gets a win in Phoenix, we might see a slightly lesser effort - if Milwaukee gets dominated in Phoenix, they could very well give a little extra and try to head home with a win. Tough call, especially this early, but based on what I foresee happening in Arizona, slight lean to the WARRIORS and the UNDER (with the side lean subject to change).
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers with a total of N/A
If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times - as Pau Gasol goes, so go the Lakers, and lately, Gasol is bashful in the lane. In the Lakers recent losses to the Kings and Celtics, Gasol was barely involved, and in the Lakers overtime win against the Rockets, Gasol was firing up running hook shots and fadeaway jumpers. Who does this guy think he is? Back a fool down, put it in the bucket, and give the other giant Lakers a chance to grab an offensive rebound with sheer power alone. Of course, we've seen spots like this where the Lakers look hapless going into a big game, and then suddenly turn it on. I'm not sure I'm on board this time. Looking back through the schedule, the Lakers were able to take their physicality up a notch in two spots - against the Knicks and Thunder. When the Lakers were asked to bang and bruise with the Celtics, Heat, and one might even add the Hornets, the Lakers went 1-2 SU and a perfect goose-egg, ATS. The Spurs are going to make the Lakers work, and they're not going to be intimidated by Staples Center or the Lakers size advantage. And on top of that, the Lakers might be without Andrew Bynum for another game or two, and if he does play, the kid isn't at full strength. Without the Gasol-Bynum frontcourt, the Lakers are still a very good team, but not invested enough in the regular season to crush spirits. The one big note working in the Lakers' favor, though, is that this is a revenge game, and for all their issues, the Lakers are not awful on revenge. The Spurs held them to just 82 points in Texas in late December, so I'd expect some better offensive execution, though I hold firm to my thought that this one isn't going to be a runaway for LA. Leans to the SPURS (if we can get more than a couple points) and the OVER.
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
Now that the football season is coming to a close, gamblers are starting to see big-time matchups on the hardwood. Tonight, we have two conference clashes and it’s safe to say that all four of the teams playing will also be making deep postseason runs as well. The first part of TNT’s double-header occurs in the Sunshine State as the Heat and Magic battle. Shortly after, the Spurs and Lakers tangle from the Staples Center.
Miami (34-14 SU, 22-25 ATS) at Orlando (31-18 SU, 20-26 ATS)
The Heat and Magic will meet for the third time this season tonight from Amway Center. Miami captured a 96-70 decision as a 3 ½-point home favorite on Oct. 29 but Orlando avenged that loss with a 104-95 home win as a four-point ‘chalk’ on Nov. 24. Since the two teams haven’t played in over two months, most handicappers should point to current form rather than past encounters.
After dealing with some injuries, Miami went through a little bit of a stumble on the West Coast and wound up dropping four straight games. Since that mini-skid, the Heat have gone 4-1 over their last five and the most impressive win came on Sunday at Oklahoma City (108-103). Even without the win over the Thunder, the Heat has been a sound bet on the road (16-9 SU, 14-11 ATS) this season.
Orlando has been made a short favorite (1.5) for this affair and head coach Stan Van Gundy is hoping his team can find some consistency again. After watching their nine-game winning streak get snapped on Jan. 12 at New Orleans, the club has produced a 6-6 record over the last 12. Looking into that stretch further, six of the wins came against opponents with sub .500 records and five of the losses were against winning clubs.
Do we see the Magic squad that likes to beat up on the bad clubs and fold against quality comp or can Van Gundy stir up some emotion tonight? To Orlando’s defense, the six losses were all by single digits and four of them were by three or less. Another direct attribution to the setbacks has been the defense. The Magic gave up 100-plus in four, and all four of those games went ‘over’ the number.
The total for tonight is hovering around 195 ½ points and the first meeting in Orlando saw 199 points (104-95) points posted, but the pair combined for 166 (90-76) in Miami’s blowout win from South Beach. Those games had numbers of 188 posted, and a large part of the increase is due to the prolific outside shooters on both squads. Orlando leads the league in 3-point attempts (25.6) per game and since Mike Miller started getting minutes for Miami, the Heat have seen their numbers increase lately.
Following this tip, Miami stays on the road for a battle against Charlotte on zero days rest. Then, they host the Clippers in an early matinee on Super Bowl Sunday. Orlando gets national attention on Sunday too, with a road battle against Boston but it will have to face Washington in D.C. tomorrow first.
San Antonio (40-8 SU, 27-19 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (34-15 SU, 21-27 ATS)
Prior to the start of the season, San Antonio was listed as a 40/1 choice to win this year’s NBA Finals. After a blistering start that hasn’t been tempered, the Spurs are now a 4/1 choice to claim the championship and strangely enough, they’re still the fourth choice. At Sportsbook.com, Miami is the favorite, with Boston and the L.A. Lakers listed second and third.
Is the betting public unaware of how good the Spurs are? If you haven’t followed San Antonio, you probably should especially if you’re betting on the NBA. The team has only dropped back-to-back games once all season, but that could chance tonight. Greg Popovich’s team was caught napping on Tuesday in a road loss to Portland (86-99). The Spurs are in the middle of their annual “Rodeo Trip” and this is the second of nine straight on the road.
Despite the setback to the Trail Blazers on Tuesday, San Antonio has produced as 15-6 SU and 13-7 ATS mark on the road. And the Spurs hold a 6 ½-game lead for the top spot in the Western Conference and three-game edge over Boston for the best record in the league.
The Lakers started off January with a 7-1 record but has gone 4-4 since, which includes a 114-106 overtime victory against Houston on Tuesday. The Lakers failed to cover as 8 ½-point home favorites and are 6-10 versus the number in their 16.
A lot of pundits have been calling the two-time defending champions out lately, especially for their performances against teams with better records. Los Angeles owns a 1-4 mark and that includes a road loss to San Antonio (82-97) on Dec. 28.
Los Angeles has gone 19-7 SU (10-16 ATS) at Staples Center this season. Keep in mind that the team went 34-7 at home last year. Even though something is off with the Purple and Gold, head coach Phil Jackson has brushed off the comments. L.A. general manager Mitch Kupchak didn’t, rather he announced that the Lakers are open to trades.
Not only is the matchup against the Spurs tough but the Lakers should have a sense of urgency on Thursday since the club embarks on a brutal seven-game trip after his outing and five of the teams have winning records.
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Tips and Trends
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic
HEAT: Miami has the 3rd best record in the entire NBA, as they are 34-14 SU this season. Despite being so great this season, the Heat are just 23-24-1 ATS overall this season. No team in the NBA has more hype surrounding them than Miami, and it's quite obvious that oddsmakers realize this. Besides the Lakers, no team in the league faces more inflated lines than the Miami Heat. Miami is 16-9 SU and 14-10 ATS in road games this season. The Heat are 2-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Miami is allowing just 93.9 PPG this year, 5th fewest in the NBA. F LeBron James is having perhaps his finest season ever, as he's averaging team highs of 26 PPG and 7.3 APG, along with 7.2 RPG. G Dwyane Wade is averaging 25.7 PPG and 6.8 RPG this season. F Chris Bosh is averaging 18.5 PPG and a team high 8.2 RPG this year. The Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Heat are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 Thursday games. Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Miami is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Heat are 1-10 ATS last 11 games playing on 2 days rest.
Over is 8-1 last 9 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 103 (SIDE of the Day)
MAGIC: (-2, O/U 197) Orlando is currently 3.5 games behind Miami in the Southeast division. Tonight gives them a great opportunity to gain 1 full game in the standings with a win tonight at home against their rival. The Magic were able to beat the Heat by 9 PTS earlier this season at home, and will be looking for the same result tonight. Orlando is 31-18 SU and 21-27-1 ATS overall this year. The Magic are 18-6 SU and 12-12 ATS overall this season in home games. Orlando is 2-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 PTS or fewer. C Dwight Howard is having another MVP caliber season, as he's averaging team highs of 22.4 PPG and 13.6 RPG. PG Jameer Nelson is averaging 12.3 PPG and a team high 6.5 APG this year. Defensively, Orlando is allowing just 94.7 PPG, the 7th fewest in the NBA. The Magic are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Orlando is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The Magic are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. Orlando is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Magic are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Magic are 1-6 ATS last 7 games against the NBA Southeast.
Under is 6-1 last 7 home games.
Key Injuries - G J.J. Redick (shoulder) is questionable.
Projected Score: 99
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers
SPURS: San Antonio has the best record in the NBA at 40-8 SU, 6.5 games ahead of the Lakers in the Western Conference. The Spurs are having arguably their finest regular season in over a decade, as their offense and depth have played a gigantic role. The Spurs are as deep as ever, as they have 8 players averaging more than 7.5 PPG this year. San Antonio is 28-18-2 ATS this year, one of the most profitable teams to bet on this year. The Spurs are 15-6 SU and 13-7 ATS in road game this season. San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in games after losing SU as the listed favorite the game before. G Manu Ginobli is averaging a team high 18.8 PPG this year, along with 4.8 APG and 3.8 RPG. PG Tony Parker is averaging 17.3 PPG and a team high 6.8 APG this season. Overall, San Antonio is averaging 104 PPG, 6th most in the league. The Spurs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Western Conference. San Antonio is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Spurs are 6-0 ATS last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Under is 11-2 last 13 games overall.
Key Injuries - F Matt Bonner (knee) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 98
LAKERS: Los Angeles is coming off an overtime win over Houston. The Lakers have been running hot and cold all season long, with many within the organization questioning whether or not a trade would help them. It's not often the Lakers are facing questions and turmoil, but that's exactly the case right now. The Lakers are 34-15 SU and 21-27-1 ATS overall this season. Los Angeles is 19-7 SU and 10-16 ATS in home games this season. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS after playing 3 or more consecutive home games. G Kobe Bryant has been focusing on his offense of late, and he's averaging a team high 25.6 PPG this year. Bryant has asked F Pau Gasol to be more aggressive offensively, and he's responded thus far. Gasol is averaging 18.4 PPG and a team high 10.6 RPG this year. F Lamar Odom might be having his finest year ever, as he's averaging 15.5 PPG and 9.6 RPG this season. Los Angeles has revenge on their minds, as they were blown out earlier this season in San Antonio. The Lakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning SU record. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the NBA Southwest.
Lakers are 1-9 ATS last 10 Thursday games.
Under is 17-4 last 21 games following an ATS loss.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 103