Thursday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday NBA card only employs two games, but each matchup owns plenty of intrigue with double-revenge on the minds of the visitors. The star power is in Cleveland, with LeBron James and the Cavs hosting good friend Dwyane Wade and the Heat.
Heat (24-24 SU, 23-25 ATS) at Cavs (39-11 SU, 26-23-1 ATS)
Miami and Cleveland meet up for the third time this season, as the Cavs took both meetings in South Florida. This is a tough stretch for the Heat, playing with no rest following Wednesday's contest in Boston. The Cavs, meanwhile, have won nine straight after Tuesday's blowout of Memphis.
The last time the Heat met the Cavs, Miami was in control for nearly three quarters. The two clubs went back-and-forth in the final quarter until the two superstars were thrust into the spotlight. Wade missed a pair of free throws to ice the game, as the Heat led 91-90. James attempted to give the Cavs the lead, but Wade blocked the King's short jumper, giving possession back to Miami. The final laugh went to LeBron, as the reigning MVP stole a lazy, behind-the-back pass from Wade and ultimately hit the go-ahead free throws to give Cleveland a 92-91 victory.
Since that win as a one-point underdog, the Cavs are 5-0 ATS the last five games, including three home victories by at least 14 points. Cleveland is 18-1 SU the previous 19 games at Quicken Loans Arena, while going 4-2 ATS in this stretch as a favorite of less than nine points.
Miami is going through a rough stretch, compiling a 1-4 SU/ATS mark the last five contests. Playing with no rest hasn't been beneficial to the Heat, putting together an 0-5 SU/ATS ledger the previous five games on the second end of a back-to-back on the road.
Since the start of the 2007-08 season, the Cavs are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS against the Heat, including a 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS mark at the "Q."
Spurs (27-19 SU, 23-22-1 ATS) at Blazers (29-21 SU, 27-22-1 ATS)
Portland looks to beat San Antonio for a third time this season when these two teams hook up at the Rose Garden. Both these teams are playing on the second end of a back-to-back, as the Blazers come home from Utah, while the Spurs battled Sacramento.
Brandon Roy is still out with a hamstring injury for the Blazers, but Portland's leading scorer was inactive when the Blazers shocked San Antonio, 98-94 on December 23 as 12-point road underdogs. Back in early November, the Blazers downed the Spurs at home, 96-84, as Portland has beaten San Antonio four straight times both SU and ATS.
The Spurs continue their annual "Rodeo Road Trip," playing eight straight games away from San Antonio. Gregg Popovich's team plays four games in six days on the West Coast, as the Spurs are 7-4 SU/ATS the last 11 games on the road.
San Antonio has never been a strong team on no rest, going 3-5 SU/ATS this season on the back end of two straight games. On the flip side, the Blazers are a solid 8-3 SU/ATS in this rest situation.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood
The Mavericks have been one of the top teams in the Western Conference this season, but backing them at home has been a mistake. Going into Wednesday's game against Golden State, Dallas is riding a 16-game ATS losing skid as a home favorite. Making things worse, the Mavs' largest margin of victory is five points. Dallas hosts woeful Minnesota on Friday, so look for the Mavs to be favored by a lot, and possibly 'fade' them once again.
The Bucks slipped up in Orlando on Tuesday night, but Milwaukee has managed to cover seven of their last eight contests. Since the season-ending injury to Michael Redd, the Bucks are 10-3 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark at the Bradley Center.
Are the Rockets ready to turn the corner? Houston started the season on fire, but the Rockets have hit the wall recently, going 6-9 SU and 3-12 ATS. Rick Adelman's team did dominate a banged-up Warriors club on Tuesday, but Houston is 1-7 ATS the last eight as a road underdog heading into Friday's contest at Memphis.
vegasinsider.com
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be gunning for a victory on Thursday when they meet at Quicken Loans Arena.
The Heat failed to comeback as they lost 107-102 to the Celtics on Wednesday, as 5.5-point underdogs. That game's combined score made it OVER the posted total of 182.5.
Dwyane Wade led all scorers with 25 points, while collecting 13 assists in the loss.
LeBron James went for 22 points, 15 assists, and six rebounds, as the Cavaliers got past the Grizzlies 105-89 on Tuesday night.
Cleveland covered as 10-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 199-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Miami has lost 3 straight games.
Cleveland has won 9 straight games.
Team records:
Miami: 24-25 SU, 24-24-1 ATS
Cleveland: 39-11 SU, 25-23-2 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Chicago are 2-8
After playing Boston are 6-4
After a loss are 6-4
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing New York are 7-3
After playing Memphis are 4-6
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami's last 21 games when playing Cleveland
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Miami
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
Next up:
Miami at Chicago, Saturday, February 6
Cleveland home to New York, Saturday, February 6
San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The San Antonio Spurs and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Rose Garden.
The Kings were clipped 115-113 by the Spurs last time out, as 4.5-point underdogs. That game's 228 points sailed OVER the posted total of 200.
Tyreke Evans scored a game-high 32 points to go with seven rebounds for the Kings.
The Trail Blazers were defeated 118-105 by the Jazz last time out, as 7.5-point underdogs. The game's combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 195.5.
LaMarcus Aldridge had 27 points with 12 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.
Team records:
San Antonio: 28-19 SU, 23-23-1 ATS
Portland: 29-22 SU, 28-22-1 ATS
San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 7-3
Before playing LA Clippers are 8-2
After playing Sacramento are 8-2
After a win are 5-5
Portland most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 3-7
Before playing LA Lakers are 4-6
After playing Utah are 7-3
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
San Antonio is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Portland
San Antonio is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Antonio is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Portland
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Portland's last 13 games at home
Next up:
San Antonio at LA Clippers, Saturday, February 6
Portland home to LA Lakers, Saturday, February 6
NBA Doubleheader on TNT
By RICKY DIMON
Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers
Love Shaq
The Cavs (39-11, 26-23-1 ATS) are positively on fire and, as of Wednesday afternoon, they had a 14-game lead on Chicago in the Central Division and a 5.5-game advantage over Orlando for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland has won nine straight (6-3 ATS) and 19 of its past 22 (13-8-1 ATS).
Impressively, the Cavs have won their last six games without Delonte West (finger) and their last seven without Mo Williams (shoulder). West is listed as questionable for Thursday while Williams is expected to miss another 3-4 weeks.
The entire Cleveland roster has stepped up in their absences, especially Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq has scored at least 10 points in each of his past nine outings and he is coming off two consecutive double-doubles in victories over the Clippers (16 points, 12 rebounds) and Grizzlies (13 and 13).
“Shaq looks great,” said LeBron James, who has reached the double-digit mark in assists in five of his last six games even with West and Williams out of the lineup. “He's motivated; he's playing with a bounce in his step that he didn't have to start the season.”
Insult to injury
The Heat have lost four of their last five (1-4 ATS) and they are now in the midst of a tough three-game road trip to Boston Wednesday, Cleveland Thursday and Chicago Saturday.
“It's big,” Rafer Alston told the Miami Herald. “It’s a grown man's trip. We have to just buckle down and understand what's at stake. If we can find a way to win all three, great. Win two of three, great. But we're in no position to drop all three this trip.”
That’s because Miami (24-24, 23-25 ATS) was tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference and on the brink of the playoff picture as of Wednesday afternoon.
The Heat are also dealing with a growing list of injuries. Jermaine O’Neal’s status is uncertain after missing Monday’s loss to Milwaukee with back spasms. Udonis Haslem is also questionable with a back problem, Mario Chalmers is out at least one more week with a tear in his left thumb and Michael Beasley was sidelined for two games in late January as a result of a right knee injury.
Prior engagements
The Cavs have won both games against the Heat this season, both in Miami. Cleveland was a 1-point underdog each time, but the visitors came away with a 111-104 victory on November 12 and recently pulled out a 92-91 win on January 25.
Trending topics
The Heat, who are playing Boston and Cleveland on consecutive days, are 2-7 (3-6 ATS) in the second of back-to-back games so far this season.
Both the Heat (21-27 O/U) and the Cavs (22-26-2 O/U) have been relatively strong over/under plays this year. The under is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games and 7-2 in the team’s last nine.
San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers
Rodeo trip
The annual San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo begins at the AT&T Center Thursday and runs through February 21. That means it’s time for Tim Duncan and Co. to pack their bags and head out on an eight-game road trip all over the United States.
San Antonio (27-19, 23-22-1 ATS) is faced with its worst-ever record to start the yearly trek. The Spurs lost four of six in a late-January homestand and they found themselves two games back of Southwest Division leader Dallas heading into a date with Sacramento Wednesday.
“We have more work to do than usual,” head coach Gregg Popovich told the San Antonio Express-News of the upcoming journey. “We usually have a little bit better record.”
“You win a couple and lose a couple, and your confidence, like everything else, is up and down,” Duncan added. “We need a couple in a row to start believing in what we’re doing.”
Miller time
The Blazers (29-21, 27-22-1 ATS) were on a three-game losing streak before scoring a 114-112 overtime win at Dallas Saturday and following that up with a 98-79 home rout of Charlotte Monday.
Andre Miller scored a career-high 52 points against the Mavericks, coming within two points of Portland’s franchise record set by Damon Stoudamire on January 14, 2005.
Two days later, however, Miller was back to doing what he does best: passing. The point guard reached the double-digit assist mark for the seventh time this season, dishing out 10 dimes while attempting only six field goals in the win over Charlotte.
Unselfishness led to six different Blazers, including three off the bench, scoring in double-figures at the expense of the Bobcats. Not surprisingly, coach Nate McMillan was thrilled.
“I just liked the way we played tonight,” he noted. “It was a great win. We enjoyed this.”
Prior engagements
Portland is 2-0 against San Antonio so far this season. The Blazers were 4-point home favorites on November 6 and they covered the spread with a comfortable 96-84 victory. Portland was a 12-point road underdog December 23, but even without Brandon Roy the visitors scored a 98-94 upset.
Tony Parker played in just 11 minutes in San Antonio’s first game against the Blazers before suffering an ankle injury. Parker has also missed the past two games with an ankle problem and he appears unlikely to play this week.
Trending topics
The Spurs are 3-5 (3-5 ATS) in the second game when they have had to play on back-to-back days this season. The Blazers, with a visit to Utah Wednesday’s schedule, are 7-3 (7-3 ATS) when they come back from a game on the previous night.
San Antonio (21-24-1 O/U) has been a decent under play this year, but Portland (28-22 O/U) has been a strong over play. The over is 6-1 in the Blazers’ last seven games.
NBA RoundUp For 2/4
By Dan Bebe
Heat @ Cavaliers - This line is OFF. The Heat come to Cleveland off the big game in Boston, and this is going to be a pretty large line, when it does finally come out. Honestly, this is a very similar spot to the game the Cavs just played with the Grizzlies a couple days back. An opponent coming into town, worn out from a huge game the night before, and ripe for the Cavs to just pick them apart. The big difference in this one is that the Heat have some strong revenge issues to deal with. The Cavs have knocked off the Heat twice this year, both times in Miami, and both times, interestingly, as a 1-point underdog. Before we get too caught up in the double-revenge, though, let's make sure we don't overvalue that aspect. The Cavs have absolutely owned the Heat over the last 3 years, winning 8 of the 9 head-to-head games, and covering 6 of those 9. They're 4-0 against the Heat in Cleveland over those same 3 years, though they failed to cover a few of the heftier home spreads going 2-2 ATS. So, do we really care that Miami is on double-revenge? They were on double-revenge last night in Boston, and covered the spread by a half point. Now, we have to hope and pray the Heat can get the engines fired back up again and try to hang with the hottest team in the NBA. I also wanted to note that over the last 3 years all 4 of those games in Cleveland have stayed Under the posted total. I realize it might be hard to consider another Under after the awful defensive effort the Heat doled out in Boston last night (which cost us dearly), and honestly, as I'm writing this somewhat close to the conclusion of that game, I find it hard to stomach suggesting going back to the well for another Under call, even though I know that's going to be the side with value, precisely because of how many points Cleveland has been scoring, and precisely because of the monster game the Heat and Celtics put together. I expect to see a line favoring the Cavs by right around the double-digit mark, and with all the energy Miami expended in Boston, I'm just not sure they'll have much left. The Cavs have won 9 games in a row, and have covered 5 straight - this team is hotter than hades, and I think you have to at least consider Cleveland. The Cavs have also been locking down on defense, and if you recall, after a hot start for Wade in his last game with Cleveland, he disappeared in the second half. Cleveland is playing like they want to make a statement in each and every game, and while the Boston defense had trouble dealing with Wade, I think Mike Brown has a plan, and I think his inspired Cavs team is going to put the clamps on Wade in the second half once again. I like the Cavs and the Under.
Spurs @ Blazers - This line is OFF. A couple more teams on a back-to-back, courtesy of the sizeable Wednesday card. And this may surprise a few people, but the old, rickety Spurs are the team on double-revenge! Portland handled San Antonio easily here at the Rose Garden way the heck back in early November, then in a huge surprise, beat the Spurs down in Texas 98-94 as a 13 point underdog. Yes, as always, there is the possibility that one team just owns the other, and indeed Portland is 7-2 ATS against the Spurs in the last 9 games, but I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Blazers are a team on the rise, and the Spurs are always going to come with a slight premium. In terms of the SU numbers, they're fairly split, though most of the time, the home team is the squad getting it done. Portland has covered the last 4 straight games at home against the Spurs, which is a little disconcerting, given that the Spurs are coming off a win in Sacramento, and the Blazers are coming home off a very poor defensive effort in a loss and failed cover in Utah. So, for what it's worth, the home team is actually doing more of the traveling in this one. Still, if the Spurs continue on this rodeo road-trip without Tony Parker, I have to believe it will catch up with them. They did not close the game against the Kings strong, giving up the cover on a few miracles for the Kings, but I think it's important for us to weigh all the angles. The Spurs have all the revenge, but they are not good on back-to-backs, at just 3-5 ATS, and 1-7 O/U. The Blazers are 8-3 ATS on back-to-backs, so they don't tire easily, and they're actually 8-3 O/U. That does not bode well for a play on the total, though I believe there will be VALUE on the Under, with both teams coming off outrageously high-scoring games yesterday. Thus, I lean Under, especially with the way Portland gets up for these big TV games, and that arena goes nuts! The back-to-back angle butts heads with the double-revenge angle, and the Blazers home dominance of the Spurs butts heads with San Antonio coming in with better momentum. I don't like the side much, but if I had to force a lean, I'd look at the Blazers to get the big win.
Miami (24-25 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (39-11, 26-23-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers try to extend their winning streak to 10 when they welcome the struggling Heat to Quicken Loans Arena.
Miami lost its third straight (1-2 ATS) and fifth in its last six games (2-4 ATS) on Wednesday, falling 107-102 in Boston, but cashing as a 5½-point underdog. It was the first time the Heat reached triple digits in four games as they had put up just 90.2 in their previous five contests. Back-to-back games have not been good for Miami, which is just 3-6 ATS in its nine tries this when playing without rest.
Cleveland has rattled off nine straight wins (6-3 ATS) cashing in each of the last five, including Tuesday’s 105-89 victory over Memphis as a 10-point home favorite. In the victory, the Cavs got 13 points and 13 rebounds from Shaquille O’Neal, while LeBron James chipped in with 22 points and 15 assists. While the Cavs are an impressive 20-3 at home, they are just 10-13 ATS in those contests (but 4-1 ATS in the last five).
Cleveland has won each of the last four meetings (SU and ATS) with the Heat, including both games this season in Miami. Just last Monday, the Cavaliers scored a 92-91 win in South Beach as a one-point underdog. Cleveland has won four straight meetings at Quicken Loans Arena, but the road team still has a 6-2 ATS edge in the last eight battles.
Miami is on several negative ATS runs, including 1-5 overall, 1-5 against Eastern Conference teams, 1-5 on the second night of a back-to-back and 0-5 against teams with winning records. The Cavaliers are on ATS streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-1 at home and 5-0 after getting a day off.
The Heat topped the total on Wednesday in Boston, but they are on “under” runs of 6-0 against Central Division teams, 19-7 on Thursday and 7-4 on the road against teams with winning home records. Cleveland has stayed below the posted number in 10 of 14 against Eastern Conference squads, but has gone over in five of seven at home and four of five at home against teams with losing road records. In this series, the “under” has been the play in the last four clashes in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
San Antonio (28-19, 23-23-1 ATS) at Portland (29-22, 27-23-1 ATS)
The Blazers shoot for their fifth straight win over the Spurs when these two Western Conference foes square off inside the Rose Garden.
San Antonio scored a 115-113 road win in Sacramento on Wednesday, failing as a 4½-point chalk. Despite last night’s win, the Spurs have dropped six of their last 10 games (3-7 ATS) and concluded a disappointing six-game homestand at 2-4 on Sunday with a blowout loss to the Nuggets, falling 103-89 as a 5½-point favorite. San Antonio has not been good in back-to-back situations, going 3-5 ATS in its eight chances this season.
Portland had its short two-game winning streak halted on Wednesday in Utah, losing 118-105 as a 7½-point underdog. The Blazers have lost four of their last six overall, but they have cashed in six of their last nine. Opposite of the Spurs, Portland has flourished in the back-to-back situation, cashing in eight of its 11 tries.
The Blazers have taken four in a row SU and ATS against the Spurs, including both meetings this season. On Nov. 6, Portland prevailed 96-84 as a four-point home favorite and then went to Texas on Dec. 23 and beat the Spurs 98-94 as a whopping 12-point pup. The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes, including 5-0 in Portland, as the home team has cashed in nine of the last 12 meetings.
San Antonio is on ATS slides of 2-9 against Northwest Division teams and 1-6 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Blazers are on positive pointspread pushes of 6-3 overall, 12-3 when playing on back-to-back nights and 10-4 when facing a team with a winning record.
The Spurs have topped the total in five of six against Northwest Division foes, but they are on “under” runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-1 on Thursdays and 18-7-1 on the second night of a back-to-back. Portland is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 21-8 overall, 11-3 at home, 11-1 against Western Conference teams and 7-0 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. In this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in four of the last six.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and OVER
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Heat at Cavaliers – The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 20, 2007 with no rest after a loss in which Dwyane Wade played more than 40 minutes. The Cavaliers are 11-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since November 15, 2004 at home with at most one day of rest off a win in which they never trailed. The Cavaliers are 11-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since March 02, 2008 as a favorite after a game in which they blocked at least 10 shots.
Spurs at Trailblazers – The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since March 04, 2009 after a win on the road in which Tim Duncan had a double double. he Spurs are 6-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since November 20, 2006 after playing on the road against the Kings. The Trailblazers are 0-7-1 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since April 17, 2001 at home after a road loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Trailblazers are 7-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since March 11, 2008 and when facing a team they beat in their first two match-ups of the season. The Trailblazers are 0-5 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since January 21, 2007 after a game on the road in which they had at least 15 more shot attempts than their opponent. The Trailblazers are 5-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since March 23, 2007 with no rest after a game on the road in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.