Thursday's NBA Preview
By Josh Jacobs
TNT has one heck of double-header on its hands when the Lakers and Celtics will prepare to do business at 8:00 p.m. EST followed by a meeting between the Mavericks and Jazz.
The name of the game for gamblers will be how L.A. and Dallas approach the second game of a double-header respectively. While the Lakers will be coming off a contest in Toronto (in the midst of a six-game road trip – five on the East Coast), the Jazz will take to the road after completing a home game against Portland. Once the final scores are in we’ll take into account those results for Thursday’s big night on the court.
Lakers at Celtics – 8:00 p.m. EST
Obviously the big news on campus is Andrew Bynum’s expected absence of 8-12 weeks from action. The seven footer was diagnosed with a sprained knee after Kobe Bryant fell into Bynum in a Friday contest over Minnesota (winning132-119). But that injury was given a grim outlook the day after when an MRI showed Bynum suffered a torn medial collateral ligament.
Now the Lakers (38-9 straight up, 24-23 against the spread) will be missing their starting center that averaged 14 PPG and 8.2 RPG during the season. There’s no doubt that the team will miss his presence on the court. That means we’ll see Lamar Odom’s playing time increase from a present, 26.9 minutes per game.
The most obvious numbers to look at include L.A.’s 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS record in back-to-back games. Off the same zero days of rest, the Lakers are scoring a net sizzling, 109.4 PPG and have clamped down on the defensive end for 97.5 PPG allowed. Entering the second game of a back-to-back series at home, the Lakers are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Most of the action has come on the road, were L.A. is 6-2 both SU and ATS in the same scenario.
Talking about road stints, the "Lake Show" will be playing its second back-to-back game in the last seven days. Taking its 36th win of the season, L.A. received 25 points from Kobe Bryant and 24 points with eight rebounds from Pau Gasol in Memphis (115-98) on Saturday. More importantly, the Lakers were able to cover the tall 10 ½-point spread while the total locked in ‘over’ 206.
In the last 11 games, L.A. has outscored its opponents by an average margin of 8.4 PPG, resulting in an 8-3 ATS record. The total has also been a popular play. The ‘over’ is 10-3 in the Lakers’ last 13 outings.
Boston (41-9 SU, 28-22 ATS) will not only look to defend its 24-2 home record but a 12-game winning streak adds to the energy that the team is harnessing. On Tuesday night, the Celtics snapped their eight-game ATS streak when the 76ers decided to post 50 points in the second-half. Boston escaped with the 100-99 win but the three-points given to Philly on the spread erased any chance for backers on Boston to collect.
The numbers are impressive to say the least. This is a Celtics’ team tossing up field goals at a 51 percent clip in the last 10 and 48 percent during the month of January. And since Boston has dropped only two at home it pays to investigate what happened in those pair of contests.
The last home defeat came at the hands of Houston (89-85) when it held the Celts to just 85 points on Jan. 7. Boston shot 42.9 percent and was outrebounded by a slim, 36-32 margin. And then on Nov. 14, Denver waltzed into the Garden, downing the Green, 94-85. Again, the theme to this defeat was Boston’s 39.7 percent from the field and being outrebounded 43-37.
In head-to-head talk, Boston’s eight-game ATS run was snapped on Dec. 25 with a 92-83 L.A. win inside Staples Center. The difference between this Celtics defeat and the two home losses aforementioned was not being outshot and outrebounded. The clear difference was L.A. draining six more shots from the charity stripe and three more baskets from beyond the arc (making for a 15-point difference in just these two categories). The line closed in the Lakers’ favor at two points while the total was an ‘under’ winner at 200 ½.
When the Celtics get one-day of rest, their ATS record has cashed in at 16-12. Boston has also been hot in the totals department by cashing on the ‘over’ in nine of the last 11 home contests.
Dallas at Utah – 10:30 p.m. EST
The second and final team entering a back-to-back scenario is the Mavericks (28-19 SU, 22-25 ATS). Dallas is a skimp 3-4 ATS off the zero days of rest, scoring 3.5 PPG less then its seasonal average of 100.6 PPG and getting shutout at home at 0-2 SU and ATS.
It’s that 0-2 record at home we’re focusing on. Both defeats came against teams playing over .500 and witnessed the Mavs giving up triple digit points. And these trends are not just regulated to home matchups. In the four defeats in back-to-back games this season, Dallas has fallen victim to giving up an average of 107.8 PPG while installed as the underdog in three of the tip-offs.
The bad news doesn’t just stop in the back-to-back spots. The Mavericks are actually 2-7 ATS at home versus team playing above the .500 mark (and 4-8 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record to compliment the argument). But all of this talk can be thrown off balance after knowing that Dallas is much improved on the road versus teams with a winning record, going 9-3 ATS.
Dallas hasn’t been so successful in its recent road games. In the last 10 away from home, the Mavs are 4-6 SU and ATS with emphasis on shooting 44.7 percent from the perimeter.
In the last 12 meetings in Utah, Dallas has suffered against the spread, dropping 10 of the last 12 (one game resulting in a push).
The Jazz can be classified as a banged up club that’s lost five of their last seven matchups. Point guard Deron Williams is listed ‘day-to-day’ after suffering a thigh injury on Saturday, forward C.J. Miles may sit out on Thursday with a shoulder injury and Andrei Kirilenko has now missed seven straight games after undergoing ankle surgery. Since Kirilenko left the court, Utah has stumbled on a 2-5 SU and ATS record in the same seven-game stretch.
Through the tumultuous times in Salt Lake City, one can’t be upset in totals betting. The Jazz are a cash cow, hitting the ‘over’ 16 times in the last 22 and eight of the last 11 ‘over’ games at home. A high total of 220 ½ set by most books on Jan. 12 against the pacers (Jazz won 120-113) has been no problem as Utah is averaging 105.1 PPG and giving up 103.9 PPG on defense (high total score of 209 PPG in the last 22).
The Jazz will enter Thursday night’s contest at 5-5 ATS with two days of rest in-between action. The last four games which fit into the two games of rest trend, has witnessed Utah going 3-1 SU and ATS.
After coming off a win (taking down Charlotte, 105-86 as seven-point home favorites) this season, the Jazz have disappointed backers for an 11-15 ATS record this season.
Utah is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes against Dallas dating back to December, 2007. It was on Jan. 17 that Dallas broke a four-game ATS winning streak by the Jazz, winning outright, 115-108.
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NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, Feb. 5
Los Angeles Lakers at Boston (8 p.m. EST). In a rematch of the NBA finals, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers try to stop the champion Celtics’ 12-game winning streak.
STARS
Wednesday
— LeBron James, Cavaliers, had a season-high 52 points and added 11 assists and 10 rebounds for his 21st career triple-double in Cleveland’s 107-102 victory over New York. James joined Michael Jordan as the only visiting players with multiple 50-point games at the present Madison Square Garden, and became the first player since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1975 to have a triple-double in a 50-point game.
— Kobe Bryant and Paul Gasol, Lakers. Bryant scored 36 points, and Gasol added 31 in Los Angeles’ 115-107 victory in Toronto.
— Stephen Jackson, Warriors, had 30 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists for his first career triple-double in Golden State’s 124-112 home win over Phoenix.
— Carmelo Anthony scored 32 points, including the winning basket with 5.3 seconds left, in Denver’s 114-113 victory in Oklahoma City.
— O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies, had 32 points in Memphis’ 104-93 victory over Houston.
— Devin Harris, Nets, scored 26 points in New Jersey’s 115-88 win over Washington.
— Anthony Johnson, Magic, had a season-high 25 points playing in place of injured All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson to help Orlando beat the Los Angeles Clippers 126-96.
STATUS
All-Star point guard Chris Paul missed New Orleans’ 107-93 loss to Chicago on Wednesday because of a strained right groin. … Toronto All-Star Chris Bosh left the Raptors’ loss to the Lakers because of a sprained right knee. … Milwaukee center Andrew Bogut will miss at least eight weeks because of a stress fracture in his back.
STREAKS
Detroit failed to sell out its game Wednesday night against Miami, ending the Pistons’ sellout streak at 259 games and just over five years. … The Los Angeles Clippers have lost seven straight and 21 of their last 23 games.
SHOOTOUT
Toronto’s Jason Kapono will attempt to become the third player to win the 3-point shootout three times during the NBA’s All-Star weekend. Kapono will join Indiana’s Danny Granger, Orlando’s Rashard Lewis, Atlanta’s Mike Bibby, San Antonio’s Roger Mason and Miami’s Daequan Cook in the Feb. 13 event in Phoenix. Larry Bird (1986-88) and Craig Hodges (1990-92) are the only three-time winners.
SPEAKING
“I don’t go out there for the numbers, I just play my game. You guys seen every phase of my game tonight, the scoring, the rebounding, the assists and defensively just trying to attack the opposing team. I never thought you could look at the box score and see somebody with 50 with a triple-double, but it’s happened.”—LeBron James after scoring a season-high 52 points and adding 11 assists and 10 rebounds for his 21st career triple-double in Cleveland’s 107-102 victory over New York on Wednesday night. James joined Michael Jordan as the only visiting players with multiple 50-point games at the present Madison Square Garden, and became the first player since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1975 to have a triple-double in a 50-point game.
INDIANA (19 - 30) at PHILADELPHIA (23 - 24)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games in February games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 6-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS (38 - 9) at BOSTON (41 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 95-62 ATS (+26.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 49-25 ATS (+21.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 81-67 ATS (+7.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 42-27 ATS (+12.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 8-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-5 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (28 - 19) at UTAH (27 - 22)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 6-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 5-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
LA LAKERS vs. BOSTON
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Boston
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
DALLAS vs. UTAH
Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Utah
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Hot Teams
-- 76ers are 5-1 vs spread in game after their last six losses.
-- Celtics won their last eleven games. Lakers won four in row, eight of last nine games (5-1-1 vs spread in last seven).
-- Mavericks won, covered their last four games.
Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost their last six road games (3-3 vs spread).
-- Jazz lost five of their last seven games.
Totals
-- Four of last five Indiana games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.
Back-to Back
-- Indiana is 7-5-1 vs spread if it plays again the next night.
-- Lakers are 7-3 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Dallas is 3-2 vs spread on road if they played the night before.
L.A. Lakers (39-9, 25-23 ATS) at Boston (41-9, 28-22 ATS)
The Celtics shoot for their 13th straight victory when they host the Lakers inside TD Banknorth Garden in this rematch of last season’s NBA championship series.
Los Angeles is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on its current six-game road trip after beating the Raptors 115-107 on Wednesday as a 7½-point favorite. The Lakers’ offense has been unstoppable lately, scoring at least 110 points in each of their last five, while averaging 116.4 points and 49.9 percent shooting during this stretch. L.A. has won eight of its last nine and cashed in nine of its last 13.
Boston edged the Sixers 100-99 on Monday, coming up short as a three-point road chalk. The Celtics have failed to cover the number in either of their last two after getting the cash in eight straight. The two-game ATS skid coincides with Kevin Garnett being sidelined with the flu, but the Celtics’ forward is expected to be in the lineup tonight.
These two teams have gone about their success differently this season with the Celtics relying on defense while the Lakers are scoring in bunches. Boston allows 91.5 ppg while the Lakers are giving up and even 100 ppg this year. But Los Angeles scores 108.7 per contest with the Celtics putting up 101.3 ppg.
The classic rivals met on Christmas Day in Los Angeles with the Lakers dominating the final five minutes en route to a 92-83 victory as two-point favorites. The spread-cover snapped an 8-0 ATS run for the Celtics in this rivalry, including Boston’s 6-0 ATS run in last season’s NBA Finals. Los Angeles has come up empty, both SU and ATS, in its last four trips to Beantown.
The Lakers are riding positive ATS streaks that include 6-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 12-4-1 as underdogs (3-0 as a pup this season), 16-5-2 as road ‘dogs, 8-2 on Thursdays and 5-1 against the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are also on a plethora of ATS runs, including 4-1 at home, 24-10 against Western Conference opposition, 7-2 as a favorite and 19-7 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Los Angeles has stayed below the total in nine of its last 12 as an underdog, but the otherwise the team is on “over” on streaks of 5-0 overall, 7-0 on the road, 8-1 against the Atlantic Division and 16-6 against the Eastern Conference. For the Celtics, the over is 5-1 in their last six at home and 4-1 in their last five overall, but the under is 11-4-1 in their last 16 against the Western Conference, 9-4 when playing after one day off and 4-1 in their last five against the Pacific Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Dallas (29-19, 23-25 ATS) at Utah (27-22, 24-25 ATS)
The struggling Jazz welcome the Mavericks to Salt Lake City and will try to snap Dallas’ four-game winning streak.
Dallas continued its winning ways Wednesday, holding off Portland 104-99 and narrowly cashing as 3½-point favorites. The Mavs have cashed in all four games during their winning streak and are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six on the highway. Dallas has stepped up the offense, averaging 109.8 ppg on 52.5 percent shooting over its last six outings, reaching triple digits in each contest.
Utah has dropped five of its last seven both SU and ATS, and the Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. However, the Jazz looked solid in Monday’s 105-86 home win over the Bobcats, cashing as seven-point favorites. They are just 2-2 SU and ATS in their last four home games.
Utah has dominated this rivalry at home, going 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Salt Lake City, including a 97-88 win back on Dec. 26, covering as a two-point favorite. Dallas got revenge in a 115-108 win on Jan. 17 in Texas, getting the cash as a five-point chalk. The Jazz are 6-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings overall, and the home team is 20-7-1 in the last 28 series clashes.
Dallas is on ATS slides of 7-21-1 on Thursdays, 4-11 against Northwest Division foes and 4-9-1 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. However, the Mavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road. Utah is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 against the Southwest Division, but it is mired in pointspread slumps of 5-11 on Thursdays, 1-6 against Western Conference rivals and 0-6 against teams with a winning record.
The Mavericks have stayed under the posted total in 55 of their last 81 games against the Northwest Division, but the over is 4-1 in their last five roadies and 9-4 in their last 13 against teams with a winning record. For Utah, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 Thursday affairs and 7-3 in its last 10 games after two days off, but the over is 14-4 in its last 18 overall and 10-3 in its last 13 games against Western Conference teams. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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What bettors need to know: TNT NBA double header
By MATT SOUTHARD
Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
Recent history
The teams met in last year's NBA Finals. They also played on Christmas Day with the Lakers emerging victorious, 92-83 as a two-point favorite and snapping the Celtics' 19-game winning streak.
Bryant balling
All the talk at the beginning of the week was centered on the right knee injury to Lakers center Andrew Bynum and how his prolonged absence (latest news is 8-10 weeks) will affect a team who is criticized as soft when he is not in the starting lineup.
Rather than make a "tougher than thou" statement Monday when word came down of the severity of the injury, Kobe Bryant answered with finesse, scoring 61 points at Madison Square Garden in a 125-119 victory over the New York Knicks.
While the "ooos" and "awes" are expected, the performance may also be construed as self-centered. The Lakers no longer predicate themselves on "Bryant-ball", at least not since the acquisition of Pau Gasol prior to last season's deadline.
Bryant's domination isn't always a good thing, especially concerning star struck Lakers' bettors. When Bryant takes 20-plus field goal attempts a game, the Lakers are 11-17 ATS. And after Bryant scored 81 against Toronto three seasons ago, Los Angeles dropped five of its next seven games straight up.
Granted, the team around Bryant has much improved since, but high-scoring affairs and shoot-outs are hard sells against the better defensive units in the league like Boston.
Boston seeking revenge
The Christmas Day matchup between these two teams could have been a tipping point in the wrong direction for the Celtics. But the defending champs have shown since exactly why they bear that mantle. Boston went from 27-2 prior to the Lakers contest to dropping six of its next eight games. Things seemed especially dire after a 98-83 throttling by Cleveland on Jan. 9.
But Boston has bounced back in a big way, riding a 12-game winning streak (9-3 ATS) since the Cleveland defeat. All signs point to the Celtics looking for revenge against the Lakers.
Hopefully for the Celtics, Kevin Garnett and the rest of the locker room will have fended off the flu by tipoff. Garnett has missed the team's last two games. But the Garnett-less Celtics defeated Philadelphia 100-99 for their 12th straight win Tuesday and prior to that, defeated Minnesota 109-101. Both games were ATS losses for Boston, though.
Numbers
Los Angeles is 11-9 ATS on the road.
Los Angeles is 8-3 on zero days rest.
Boston is 2-0 ATS this season against teams on zero days rest.
Boston is 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday night games.
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
Recent history
The season series is 1-1 SU and ATS. Dallas won the most recent game 115-108.
Mavericks on the rise
Since losing four straight in the middle of January, Dallas looks to be back on track. The Mavericks have won six of their last eight and have covered the spread in all six of those victories, including an upset defeat of the Orlando Magic as 7.5 point underdogs Monday. They are averaging 106.8 points per game during the current stretch.
The improvements may be a result of Jason Kidd's improved play. Kidd has been given the keys to the offense by coach Rick Carlisle and the 14-year veteran has the right ideas in mind for Dallas' offensive sets. Kidd is averaging 8.6 assists in his last five games (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS).
The biggest beneficiaries have been Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. Nowitzki has scored double-digit points in seven of his last eight games while Terry's productivity off the bench has continued to be a huge factor in the Maverick's success (20.3 points).
Utah Blues
The Jazz are struggling, having lost six of their last ten and going just 8-7 SU in the month of January. And in their last ten games, they are just 3-7 ATS. But really, who can blame Utah for the struggles with the injury bug so prevalent on the squad?
Carlos Boozer is still out following Jan. 9 knee surgery. Andrei Kirilenko will be out until the all-star break with a wrist injury. To compound things, Deron Williams missed Monday's contest against New Orleans with a thigh contusion.
Luckily, the Jazz received a bit of a reprieve after a tough three-games-in-four-days stretch, which included a drubbing at the hands of division-rival Portland last Saturday.
Utah needs all of the help it can get right now. A victory over Dallas gives it a much-needed conference boost and considering the Jazz trail the Mavericks by a half-game for the Western Conference's eighth and final playoff seed, they need all of the help they can get.
Numbers
Dallas is 3-4 ATS on zero days rest.
Dallas is 16-10 ATS on the road.
Utah is 5-5 ATS on two days rest.
Utah is 0-3 ATS against teams on zero days rest.