Thursday's Best NBA Bet
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (-3.5, 215.5)
No Channing Frye? No problem.
The Suns lost Frye to a dislocated shoulder on Sunday and he is expected to be sidelined for at least to weeks. Enter Hakim Warrick. The former Syracuse star got the start against Houston on Tuesday and erupted for a career-high 32 points, 20 of which he poured in during the first half in Phoenix’s 113-110 victory.
"I got a couple layups that got me going, and Steve (Nash) just kept feeding, and all I pretty much had to do is knock it down," Warrick said afterward. "This game is mostly confidence. You see the ball go in the basket, and you're going to continue to be aggressive."
The Suns signed Warrick to be a poor man’s Amar’e Stoudemire and they traded for Vince Carter in December to replace Jason Richardson’s scoring. Both did their replacement jobs perfectly, as Carter also went for 32 points.
Similarly, Denver has done nice work in replacing Carmelo Anthony. The Nuggets are 5-2 (6-1 ATS) since his departure but just 1-2 on the road in that span. They are coming off a 103-100 loss to the Clippers on Saturday.
Arron Afflalo (12.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg) strained his left hamstring in Saturday’s setback and is listed as doubtful. Afflalo might as well be called “out” for Thursday’s contest and there is a chance he could miss several weeks.
Pick: Phoenix
Hot LA Lakers visit Miami Heat for marquee clash
By: Stephen Nover
If some Miami Heat players were moved to tears following this past Sunday’s loss to Chicago, there must have been a flood after the Heat lost at home again to Portland on Tuesday.
Miami brings a five-game losing streak to its Thursday home matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers at 5:05 p.m. PT on TNT.
Outside of South Florida, there is little sympathy for LeBron James and the struggling Heat. James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Co. might want to actually win an NBA title before celebrating like they did prior to this season beginning.
The Heat are 2-6 since the All-Star break. They have failed to cover in their last seven games and are 0-5 ATS during their past five home contests.
The streaking Lakers are going the opposite way. They stumbled into the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak with appalling road losses to Orlando, Charlotte and even, gulp, Cleveland.
But since then, the Lakers have tightened their defense and ripped off eight consecutive victories. Los Angeles has held its past eight foes to an average of 87 points on 40 percent shooting from the field while going 7-1 ATS during its win streak.
The two-time defending world champions had allowed an average of 97.5 points per game and 46.3 percent shooting from Jan. 12-Feb. 16 when they went a mediocre 10-8.
Phil Jackson and his coaching staff tweaked the Lakers’ defense, Kobe Bryant is showing why he’s a 13-time All-Star and center Andrew Bynum has pulled down 16 or more rebounds in his last three games as Los Angeles is back to elite status.
The same can’t be said for Miami.
James may be the best player in the league and Wade is right up there, too. But the Heat have a number of serious holes. They lack good pivot play, their bench is weak and Bosh appears overrated.
The Heat have dominated weaker clubs, but are just 3-10 versus above-.500 teams since January and 1-9 against the five teams that have better records.
James has scored 25 or more points in eight games – one short of a Miami team record – but lately has missed a number of clutch shots as three of the Heat’s loses during their skid have occurred in the final seconds.
Only once all season have the Heat scored a basket when down three or less points in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime.
An early season injury to Udonis Haslem, the Heat’s best rebounder and a top defender, really hurt their frontcourt.
Miami’s reserves scored only six points against the Bulls and were outscored, 41-8, during a 105-96 loss this past Tuesday to Portland. Miami was 8 ½-point home favorites with the combined 201 points going ‘over’ the 187 ½-point total.
Wade scored 38 points in the loss to the Trail Blazers. James had 31 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Bosh only had seven points, though, in 40 minutes.
Bryant had 26 points in Los Angeles’ latest victory, 101-87, against Atlanta this past Tuesday as 4½-point road ‘chalk.’ The combined 188 points went ‘over’ the 183½-point total. Bynum contributed 16 points, 16 rebounds and three blocked shots.
The Lakers have covered in eight of their last nine road games when facing an opponent with a winning home record.
The ‘under’ has cashed in 24 of the Lakers’ last 33 games versus Eastern Conference foes. The ‘under’ has cashed five of the past six times the Lakers have met the Heat in Miami.
Miami has covered in its last five games against the Lakers, who no doubt can gear up for the Heat’s “A” game. The question is even if Miami is sky-high for the home matchup, are the Heat good enough to beat the Lakers right now?
NBA Betting Preview: Denver at Phoenix Suns
By: Brad Young
While most of the focus this time of year is on March Madness, there is still plenty of action going on the pro hardwood. Denver (37-27 straight up, 30-31-3 against the spread) concludes a brief three-game road against Phoenix (33-29 SU, 28-32-2 ATS) trip trying to get back on the winning track.
The Nuggets currently find themselves in second place in the Northwest Division standings. Denver presently resides in fifth place in the Western Conference, but just a game and a half separates fifth from eighth.
The Suns find themselves a game and a half behind Memphis for the eighth and final postseason slot. Phoenix remains in second place in the Pacific Division, but a sizeable 11½ games behind the Los Angeles Lakers.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds has the Suns 3½-point home ‘chalk’ over Denver, with the total set at 214½. Thursday’s contest at Phoenix’s US Airways Center begins at 7:30 p.m. (PT).
Denver was riding a three-game SU winning streak before falling to the Los Angeles Clippers Saturday as a two-point road underdog, 100-94. The combined 194 points never seriously threatened the 208-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the fourth consecutive contest. The Nuggets had covered seven games in a row before their setback to the Clippers.
Denver outrebounded Los Angeles, 56-37, and forced more turnovers, 16-11, but the Clippers delivered more assists, 25-21. The Nuggets shot 39 percent (40-of-102) from the field and 21 percent (3-of-14) from behind the arc, but allowed their opponents to shoot 47 percent (35-of-74) from the field.
Center Nene paced the Denver offense with 25 points while tying a season high with 14 rebounds. Power forward Kenyon Martin had 11 points in the setback, while point guard Ty Lawson added 11 and eight assists.
Phoenix has alternated SU wins and losses its last five games after outlasting Houston Tuesday as a four-point home favorite, 113-110. The combined 223 points toppled the 218 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 7-2 the previous nine outings. The Suns had covered back-to-back games before facing the Rockets.
Phoenix prevailed after outscoring Houston in the fourth quarter, 34-28. The Suns ended the contest with advantages rebounding, 41-36, and assists, 28-21, while shooting a blistering 54 percent (44-of-81) from the field and 54 percent (7-of-13) from 3-point land.
Power forward Hakim Warrick stepped up with 32 points and eight rebounds in the triumph, while guard Vince Carter added 32 and six. Forward Grant Hill had 19 and four assists, while point guard Steve Nash provided nine and 14.
The home team has won the last five games SU in the Denver-Phoenix series while going 4-0-1 ATS. The Nuggets won the latest encounter Jan. 11 as a 4½-point home ‘chalk,’ 132-98. The combined 230 points eclipsed the 218½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 the previous four meetings.
Denver forward Danilo Gallinari (toe) and guard Arron Afflalo (ankle) are expected to be ‘out’ versus the Suns. The Nuggets host Detroit their next game before embarking on a four-game East Coast road trip. Denver has seen the ‘over’ go 9-4 its last 13 road games.
Phoenix center Channing Frye is expected to miss the next couple of weeks due to an injured shoulder. The Suns concludes their three-game homestand with Sunday’s matchup against Orlando. Phoenix has seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 its past nine Thursday games.
NBA TNT Doubleheader Betting Preview
By David Chan
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat (+2, 188)
The Heat have been wretched against good teams this season, but one of their best wins came at the Staples Center on Christmas Day.
As a 3.5-point underdog, Miami laughed at the spread and hammered the Lakers 96-80 as LeBron James delivered a triple-double. LeBron scored a game-high 27 points, dished out 11 of his team’s impressive 25 assists, and grabbed 11 rebounds.
Miami’s “Big 3” combined for 69 points while Mario Chalmers chipped in 13. Kobe Bryant had an afternoon to forget, going 6 of 16 from the floor for 17 points. Pau Gasol also scored 17 but it was nowhere near enough to overcome the Heat, who got 18 first-half points from Chris Bosh and never trailed after an early 8-7 L.A. lead.
Tears of the sun
Perhaps you thought it could not get any worse for the Heat (43-21, 29-34-1 ATS) when they dropped a pair of home games to New York and Orlando last week. But then they got blown out 125-95 at San Antonio one day after losing to the Magic.
Surely that was rock bottom, right? Wrong. They promptly lost again at home Sunday, this time 87-86 to Chicago, after more late-game failings by LeBron and Dwayne Wade. Head coach Erik Spoelstra said afterward that some of his guys were crying in the locker room.
Improbably, it still got worse for Miami after that. The spiraling team fell at home, again, to Portland, 105-96. That loss extended the Heat’s losing streak to five. They have not covered a single spread in their last seven outings and they have not beat a team above .500 (and nobody better than 27-36 Indiana) since February 3.
Miami will have plenty of incentive for Thursday’s showdown, and not just because it’s yet another chance to get over the hump against a top team. Los Angeles head coach Phil Jackson joined in the cry-gate fun Wednesday.
“This is the NBA: No Boys Allowed,” Jackson joked to the Los Angeles Times. “Big boys don't cry. But if you're going to do it, do it in the toilet where no one sees you.”
The Lakers (46-19, 32-32-1 ATS) have had no need to cry lately. With the Heat are streaking in the wrong direction, L.A. extended its winning surge to five games with a 101-87 victory at Atlanta Tuesday.
Trending topics
- The Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
- The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
- Head-to-head, Miami is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The under is 5-1 in the last six encounters at AmericanAirlines Arena.
New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks (-7, 215.5)
If you thought the Christmas clash between the Lakers and Heat was a potential NBA Finals preview, perhaps you should have tuned in on February 2 instead. That’s when the Knicks and Mavericks squared off in New York for their first of two meetings during the regular season. As a 2-point underdog at Madison Square Garden, Dallas dominated the second and third quarters to prevail 113-97.
Of course, this is a much different Knicks team now. Danilo Gallinari, who led the Knicks with 27 points in the loss to Dallas, is a Denver Nugget. New York, which got 21 points from Amare Stoudemire and 22 from backup guard Toney Douglas, was obviously without recently-acquired Carmelo Anthony. The Mavericks owned the glass to the tune of a 54 to 34 rebounding margin while Dirk Nowitzki led five Dallas players in double figures with 29 points.
Both the Knicks (at Memphis) and Mavericks (at New Orleans) have zero days of rest heading into Thursday’s showdown. New York is a respectable 9-6 (11-3-1 ATS) in the second of back-to-back games this season while Dallas is a stellar 10-4 (9-5 ATS).
Four games in five nights
The Mavericks (46-17, 34-27-2 ATS) may have trouble staying in the present on Thursday night, because they have a lot on their plate both in the past and the future. Not only will it be Dallas’ fourth game in five nights, but the team also has a showdown against the Lakers coming up on Saturday.
“It's going to test us mentally and physically,” guard Jason Terry told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram before the stretch started. “It's going to tell you a lot about your team this late in the season playing four in five nights. We're going to see what we're made of. But I think we're up for the task and we're excited.”
So far, the Mavericks are 1-1 (0-2 ATS). They lost 104-103 at home to Memphis on a buzzer beater from Zach Randolph before winning 108-105 at Minnesota Monday.
“Even though it's a home game, I see trouble ahead against New York on Thursday,” said Eddie Sefko, beat writer for the Dallas Morning News. “The Mavericks will be finishing their four-game, five-night run. They will have spent themselves Wednesday night in New Orleans against the Hornets and they also will have a human-nature battle on their hand to keep from looking forward to the Lakers.”
What Sefko may not know, though, is that the Knicks (33-29, 38-22-2 ATS) will also be wrapping up a four-game, five-night stretch. The streak of games is certainly not doing any favors for Chauncey Billups, who has missed four straight games with a quadriceps injury and is listed as questionable as of Wednesday afternoon.
Trending topics
- The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
- The over is 16-5 in the Mavericks’ last 21 overall and 5-0 in their last five when they play on zero day’s rest.
- Head-to-head, in the last five meetings the road team is 5-0 ATS and the over is 4-1.
NBA Previews
by Dan Bebe
Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat (Pk) with a total of 188
To no one's surprise, this line zoomed to Lakers by 2, and that, good friends, makes this game very, very hard for me to bet. Considering that when these teams met in Los Angeles on Christmas and both teams were playing pretty well, the Lakers were a 3.5-point home favorite. I realize a ton of time has passed between then and now, but for the Lakers to go from being considered a half-point neutral court favorite to an opening number that corresponds to 3-points superior to a current line of 5 points better...well, that doesn't add up. On the Tuesday podcast, I wondered aloud how many games the Heat would have to lose before the value started to swing back onto them, but what I neglected to note was that it depends largely on the opponent. Here, Miami isn't the public choice, which will, for one day, at least, create some line value on the home team. Can I back the Heat right now? Maybe, but it would take a nice Pepto-Prevacid cocktail, but at this price (LAL -2) I don't think I can pay to play on LA, even with their 8-game win streak and 7-1 ATS mark in that same span. As far as totals go, the Lakers are winning games with defense, playing a slower tempo, executing in the half-court, and using their superior size to just push teams slowly out of the game. It's probably the so-called "obvious" play, but I can't help but be a tad scared to take any overs involving either of these clubs. Slight leans to MIAMI (shudders) and the UNDER.
New York Knicks @ Dallas Mavericks (-7) with a total of 215.5
Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, so the first note that pops to mind is a potential Over play. Both clubs are huge Over teams when they're unrested (Knicks are 9-6 to the Over, Mavs are 10-4), and even though it's almost inarguable that this total is a hair inflated to begin with, I still think it could go up and Over. Let's hope both teams play slow, ugly games on Wednesday to help our cause. In terms of the side, this is a tough one to call - the Mavs are crazy-deep, so you'd think that they'd have a slight edge in the back-to-back spot, but the Knicks catching 7 points is tough to ignore. New York has enough scoring punch to stay within 7 points on most nights, and if Dallas doesn't shoot 55% (which they might), New York should be able to get to the foul line and keep the game close. I hate to have 2 games in a row where I know darn well I have at least one lean (maybe 2, here) that is to the squarer side of the ledger, but damn if I can't figure a way that the Knicks get blown out in a low scoring game. Leans to the KNICKS and the OVER.
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns (-4) with a total of 216.5
These teams are two nice stories. Both made huge trades, and both seem to have benefited from them. Phoenix has leaned heavily on Marcin Gortat, and now healthy, Vince Carter is chipping in with some offense, as well. The Nuggets have put together a monster of a bench, and though Gallinari hasn't really been healthy since his arrival in Denver, the team is still playing pretty well. The Nuggets are coming off an absurd layoff, and my big question for this game is whether they come out rusty or energized, and whether all that time off was enough to get the new pieces a little more time to develop chemistry. The issue, as I see it, is that the Suns lost by 34 on their last trip to Denver. So, while the Nuggets might be the team developing chemistry, the Suns are the ones that would seem to want this win just a bit more. Phoenix got a tough win over Houston in its last game, and now playing its second game back home (with a rejuvenated VC and without Channing Frye), this would seem to be a decent spot for both teams. Maybe the way to go is to consider the Under, if indeed Denver's long layoff created defensive energy and/or any rust. Just some thinking or talking points. Leans to the SUNS and the UNDER.