TNT NBA Doubleheader: Betting Preview and Odds
By RICKY DIMON
Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic
Running—and hiding—of the Bulls
The Bulls (31-32, 30-31-2 ATS) have lost five straight games and suddenly find themselves teetering out of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Defensive woes are the crux of Chicago’s problems. The team has surrendered at least 100 points in seven consecutive outings. After a 122-116 home loss to Dallas on Saturday, the Bulls were humiliated in front of their own fans 132-108 by Utah on Tuesday.
“We can't control the paint right now,” coach Vinny Del Negro said afterward. “We emphasize defense all the time. We've won this season by controlling tempo and when we try to outscore teams, we don't have much success.”
Other direction
While Chicago is mired in a dismal slump, Orlando is streaking. The Magic (45-20, 34-30-1 ATS) have won eight in a row and eight of their last nine to seize a formidable four-game lead over Atlanta in the Southeast Division.
Orlando is already in a playoff mentality, which can be expected since the team had a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals on Sunday. With home-court advantage, the Magic edged Los Angeles 96-94 when Kobe Bryant missed a three-pointer at the buzzer.
“It felt like a playoff game,” Vince Carter said. “You could see it on everyone's face. It wasn't like, ‘Oh, well, whatever.’”
“Seems like all you hear is ‘Cleveland vs. the Lakers' in the Finals,” Dwight Howard said following a 113-87 home rout of the Clippers on Tuesday. “We want to be holding up that trophy. We think we can make the kind of plays to make it back to the Finals.”
Prior engagements
The Bulls and Magic have gone head-to-head twice this season, with both encounters taking place in the Windy City. As a 3.5-point underdog on Jan. 2, Chicago beat Orlando 101-93 behind 30 points from Derrick Rose. Howard, meanwhile, was limited to just nine points.
Orlando was favored by 4.5 points on Feb. 10, and this time the Magic took care of business, 107-87. An injured Rose left the game early in the first quarter and Orlando featured seven players in double-figures. The Magic led 41-17 after 12 minutes of play.
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Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five overall and 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with winning SU records.
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games, 4-1 ATS in its last five against Eastern Conference opposition, and 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with losing SU records.
The Bulls (28-34-1 O/U) have been a decent under play this season while the Magic (25-39-1 O/U) have been an absolutely outstanding under play. The over is 5-2 in Chicago’s last five overall, but the under is 5-0-1 in Orlando’s last six home games. Head-to-head, the under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Orlando.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Look out, look out, the Cambyman
Marcus Camby has been plagued by an ankle injury ever since he joined the Trail Blazers in a trade-deadline deal, but he was finally at his best in an 88-81 home win over Sacramento on Tuesday.
Camby’s specialty—the blocked shot—was on display as he rejected five field-goal attempts. The former Denver Nugget also contributed six points and eight rebounds in 32 minutes.
Of course, Portland (38-28, 35-30-1 ATS) has been just fine with or without Camby of late. The Trail Blazers have won four of their last five and six of eight to maintain a stranglehold on the eighth and final playoff position in the Western Conference.
Small ball
The Warriors (17-46, 35-27-1 ATS) have been going small in terms of both size and number of players recently. After all, their injury report is just outrageous.
Monta Ellis (back) and Andris Biedrins (groin) have each missed the last five games, Kelenna Azubuike and Brandan Wright are out for the season, and Vladimir Radmanovic, Speedy Claxton, and Anthony Randolph are out indefinitely, Raja Bell will miss one more month, and now Ronny Turiaf (knee) is hurt.
The Warriors have been featuring a rotation of just eight players, with rookie point guard Stephen Curry frequently seeing all 48 minutes per game on the floor.
“We can play that way,” Curry said of using three small forwards on the front line while Turiaf and Biedrins are sidelined. “We've just got to help each other a little more than we probably would have to if we had our two big men.”
“We're going to have to have effort; guys playing out of position,” explained Anthony Morrow. “But we've been doing that all year.”
To say it hasn’t worked out all year would be an understatement.
Prior engagements
The Trail Blazers and Warriors have met twice this season, with each team cruising at home. As an 8-point home underdog on Nov. 20, Golden State handled Portland 108-94. Ellis poured in 33 points and Morrow added 23 for the Warriors.
Portland was favored by just 3.5 points at home on Jan. 2, but the Trail Blazers got revenge without too much trouble - a 105-89 victory. Golden State was outrebounded 43-36 and the Warriors, who rarely play any defense, saw Brandon Roy go off for 37 points.
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The Trail Blazers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days rest and they are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 against the Western Conference.
Neither team has been a particularly strong over/under play this season. The Trail Blazers (35-31 O/U) lean toward the over while the under is just barely the way to go with the Warriors (30-33 O/U).
Head-to-head, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six encounters. Golden State is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against Portland.
Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday NBA card is normally a light one, but there are three games for bettors to wager on as opposed to the usual two. The Hawks and Wizards will make up a postponed game from February 6 due to inclement weather in the D.C. area. We'll lead things off with the pair of TNT contests, starting in central Florida between the red-hot Magic and stumbling Bulls.
Bulls (31-32 SU, 30-31-2 ATS) at Magic (45-20 SU, 34-30-1 ATS)
Chicago and Orlando hook up for the final time in the regular season with the season series tied at a game apiece. These two clubs are going in different directions as the Magic are riding a six-game winning streak while the Bulls have dropped five in a row.
Stan Van Gundy's squad is coming off a 113-87 blasting of the Clippers on Tuesday, the fourth cover in the last five opportunities as a double-digit favorite. The Magic is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight at home, while holding each of their last four opponents to 94 points or less.
Chicago's defense is nowhere to be found, allowing 100 points or more in eight straight games including the 132-spot to Utah on Tuesday. The 'over' has been a profitable play for the Bulls recently, hitting in five of the last seven games. Since a 6-1 SU/ATS run to start the second half of the season, Vinny Del Negro's team is 0-5 SU/ATS, with each loss coming by nine points or more.
The two teams split a pair of meetings at the United Center as the Bulls knocked off the Magic, 101-93 on January 2 as 3 ½-point home 'dogs. Orlando shot just 36% from the floor, but managed to knock down 14 three-pointers in the loss. The Magic got revenge in an easy 107-87 thrashing of the Bulls in the final game prior to the All-Star Break. Derrick Rose went down with a bruised hip that kept the reigning Rookie of the Year out the rest of the contest. The game was pretty much decided after Orlando put 41 points on the scoreboard in the first quarter, cashing comfortably as 4 ½-point road 'chalk.'
Blazers (38-28 SU, 35-30-1 ATS) at Warriors (17-46 SU, 35-27-1 ATS)
Portland enters its personal house of horrors when the Blazers invade Oracle Arena for the late tip against Golden State. Nate McMillan's club is 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS the last nine visits to the Bay Area dating back to April 2005. The Warriors return home from a winless five-game road trip, but Golden State managed a 3-2 ATS mark, including Monday's 135-131 shootout loss at New Orleans as six-point 'dogs.
The Blazers failed to cover in an 88-81 victory over the Kings on Tuesday as 8 ½-point home favorites, the fourth win in five games for Portland. The road 'chalk' role has been a profitable wager for the Blazers, cashing 10 of 13 times in this role. Portland has covered five straight when laying points away from the Rose Garden, while compiling a 10-3 ATS mark the last 13 on the road overall.
The Warriors are still short-handed with leading scorer Monta Ellis missing the last five games with back spasms and center Andris Biedrins likely out for the rest of the season with an abdominal tear. Playing without Ellis hasn't affected Warriors' backers in a negative way, as Golden State is 9-2 ATS this season when Ellis sits out. Ellis and his 25 ppg hopes to return to the court on Thursday. Golden State has struggled at Oracle recently, going 4-7 SU/ATS, while dropping six of eight games as home 'dogs.
The home team has split each meeting this season with the Warriors running out the Blazers, 108-94 at Oracle on November 20. Golden State allowed 37 first-quarter points, but held Portland to 57 points in the final three quarters combined to cash as eight-point home 'dogs. Portland exacted revenge at the Rose Garden on January 2 with a 105-89 blowout of Golden State, cruising to a cover as 3 ½-point favorites. In a similar scenario to the first matchup, the Warriors this time were scorching the nets with a 41-point first quarter. Portland's defense tightened up by limiting Golden State to 48 points in the last three periods.
Hawks (40-23 SU, 36-27 ATS) at Wizards (21-40 SU, 25-34-2 ATS)
The card expands by one game with the Wizards beginning a stretch of three games in three days when they host the Hawks at the Verizon Center. Atlanta will try to bounce back after a one-point loss in the final seconds at New York on Monday. Since losing Josh Howard for the season with a torn ACL on February 22, the Wizards are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS.
The Hawks are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS off consecutive losses this season, but do own a 2-1 SU/ATS mark on the road in this situation. Atlanta is just 4-7 SU/ATS since January 27 on the road, while averaging 96 ppg in the last two road defeats at Miami and New York.
The Wizards have turned into a solid 'under' play over the last eight games, cashing seven times, while not breaking the 90-point mark in any of the previous five contests. Washington held Houston to 38% shooting from the floor on Tuesday, but the Wizards tallied just 60 points through the first three quarters in a 96-88 loss to the Rockets as four-point home 'dogs.
Mike Woodson's team has claimed each of the last seven meetings, including the first two this season at Philips Arena. The Hawks downed the Wizards in late October, 100-89 as six-point 'chalk,' while the game easily finished 'under' the total of 202 ½. Atlanta won in similar fashion on January 13 by knocking off Washington, 94-82. The favorite/under combination cashed again when the Hawks covered as 11-point favorites and finished 'under' the total of 203 ½.
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Chicago (31-32, 30-31-2 ATS) at Orlando (45-20, 34-30-1 ATS)
Two Eastern Conference teams heading in opposite directions hook up at Amway Arena where the Magic look to extend a six-game winning streak and hand the Bulls their sixth straight loss.
Chicago dropped its fifth in a row SU and ATS on Tuesday, getting hammered by the Jazz 132-108 as a five-point home underdog, ending a woeful four-game homestand. The Bulls have been outscored by 15.4 ppg during their five-game slide, averaging 100.4 ppg (47.3 percent shooting) while giving up 115 ppg (51 percent). In fact, seven straight opponents have scored in triple digits against Chicago. The Bulls kick off a four-game road trip with this game, and they’ve dropped two in a row SU and ATS on the highway.
Orlando followed up Sunday’s thrilling, last-second 96-94 home win over the Lakers with Tuesday’s 113-87 rout of the Clippers, cashing as a 12½-point home favorite. Five of the Magic’s six victories during their winning streak have been double-digit blowouts, winning by margins of 26, 10, 27, 21 and 16 points. Also, Orlando has won five straight at home (4-1 ATS). Overall, Stan Van Gundy’s squad has won eight of its last nine (6-3 ATS).
These teams have split two meetings this season, both in Chicago. The Bulls took the first 101-93 as a 3½-point underdog on Jan. 2, but got destroyed in the rematch five weeks later 107-87 as a 4½-point road chalk. Orlando is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games when coming off a double-digit home defeat, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 0-5 overall, 0-4 against winning teams and 9-25 versus Southeast Division foes. Conversely, the Magic are on ATS upticks of 4-1 at home, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 against the Central Division and 5-1 versus teams with a losing record. However, Orlando has failed to cover in four straight marquee Thursday contests.
Chicago is on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 after a SU defeat, 44-21 following a double-digit home loss and 4-0 after a day of rest. However, the Bulls also carry “under” streaks of 4-0-1 on Thursday and 4-1 against Southeast Division foes, while the Magic are on low-scoring surges of 19-6-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home, 9-3 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 versus the Central Division, 14-5 on Thursday and 46-18-1 after a day off.
Finally, the last five Bulls-Magic clashes in Orlando have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 3/11
By Dan Bebe
Hawks @ Wizards - This line is OFF. Though, actually, there seems to be something weird going on with the books tonight, as I'm seeing Hawks by 7, with a total of 194 at a few places, and every other book still hasn't released a line on any of the 3 games. I guess I've been out of the loop. In terms of the games occurring tonight, at least at first glance, this is not the game I'm looking at the hardest, but hey, let's see what's going on. The first thing that jumps out at me is not the Hawks 2-game losing streak, though it's safe to say they've regressed a little after a semi-hot run. The most important note in this game is that the Wizards really seem to have run out of gas. They've lost 4 in a row, and 6 of 7, and they haven't cracked the 90-point barrier in any of their last 5 games. Bottom line, you can play the best defense on the planet, but if you're only scoring 85 ppg, you're probably not winning many games. And they're not covering many, either. This team built up some clout with a hot run right after trading away Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, but the young guys can only play over their actual skill level for so long, and the ceiling is starting to cave. The Hawks have indeed smacked the Wizards twice already this year, but the discrepancy in actual ability keeps this game from being anything more than a 3rd meeting between a good team and a bad one. The Hawks are coming off two subpar performances in losses to the Heat and Knicks, but they've had 2 days off, and while they're almost certainly going to be the big public favorite, you couldn't pay me enough to back Washington right now. Small lean to Atlanta. On the total, I'm riding this wave of Washington mediocrity until they prove they can score 90 points. I lean Under.
Bulls @ Magic - This line is OFF. This is another case, actually a bit like the previous game, where one team is just out of steam. In this one, it is, again, the lesser club. The Bulls are likely going to be without the services of both Luol Deng and Joakim Noah yet again, and I just don't trust the other guys to get it done for 48 minutes. The Bulls have lost 5 games in a row, and have failed to cover in all 5. This game marks the start of a 4-game road trip, so the road doesn't get any less bumpy for the undermanned Bulls. Over on the Orlando side, things are pretty rosy -- they've won 6 games in a row and 8 of 9 (straight up), while covering 6 of those 9 games as well. The Magic had no problem following up the Sunday win over the Lakers with a cruising blowout of the lowly Clippers, and after taking yesterday off, they host Chicago on TNT. These teams have split 2 meetings this year, with both taking place in Chicago. The Bulls won the first of those 2 games, but Orlando got its revenge with a 20-point drubbing just before the All Star Break. So, I suppose the issues we have to weigh in this game are as follows: 1) Can the Bulls muster the strength to compete for 48 minutes? Lately, the answer has been a resounding "no," but with the TNT cameras trained on them, perhaps they sustain the effort a little bit longer. Will Orlando take Chicago seriously even though they beat them by 20, and the Bulls are on a rather uninspired losing skid? I think so, as the Magic are surging, and there's no reason to think they let up. And finally, how big will this spread be? I'm thinking this bad boy is going to be up over 8, maybe as high as 10, but likely somewhere in between. I hate to say it, but the Bulls might very well fold up late yet again, and I have to lean to the big square singular team name from Florida. No, not the Heat; the Magic. On the total, the Bulls have been playing zero defense, and getting into failed running matches. I wonder if the big stage wakes them up on the defensive end. I'm inclined to say that they do play a slightly slower game here, and I lean Under.
Blazers @ Warriors - This line is OFF. Again, something weird about all these lines being off, and it's really a darn shame, but so it goes. Word on the street is that Monta Ellis will make his return to the Warriors lineup tonight, and he couldn't have picked a better spot. The Warriors host a team that they've had somewhat surprising success against, at home only, over the past few years. In fact, while the Warriors got their clock cleaned up in Portland, the Warriors beat the Blazers in Oakland once already this year, and are on a 5-game winning streak against Portland in Northern California. The huge, huge point of concern on this one is that the Warriors are coming home off a long road trip. They lost all 5 games of a trip that started in south Florida, and finished up in New Orleans. So, the Warriors are going to be tired. But, this team is a little different in that most of these guys don't actually have lives set up in Oakland, or anywhere in the Bay Area. The biggest problem with teams coming home off a long road trip is that they have to try to figure out how to balance family life and chores and food with basketball, and suddenly their schedules get all discombobulated. With the Warriors, we're looking at about 6-7 D-Leaguers, who have houses in, well, Eastern Butttown, USA, so coming home is really just playing another road game, but with a crowd that cheers for you. So, there may be some letdown, but I don't think quite as severe as with a veteran club. I lean Golden State to overcome that sluggishness. On the total, well, we've had both meetings this year go Under, and it seems like Portland has been able to at least slow the tempo a little. The fact that the teams were averaging under 80 field goal attempts makes me think they're going to really have to shoot the lights out to hit an over, and I lean Under.
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Bulls at Magic – The Bulls are 0-5 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since January 03, 2009 when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two straight games. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since December 31, 2009 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Magic are 6-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since March 05, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Magic are 0-5 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since November 06, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Trailblazers at Warriors – The Trailblazers are 0-7 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since February 12, 2009 on the road after a home win in which their DPS was negative. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since April 15, 2005 at home versus the Trailblazers. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since March 16, 2006 with two or more days of rest after a game on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since February 26, 1997 after a road loss in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Hawks at Wizards - The Hawks are 11-0-1 ATS (7.0 ppg) since February 25, 2009 when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game next next. The Hawks are 0-7 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since January 18, 2008 on the road after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS (4.8 ppg) since April 11, 2001 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Wizards are 0-12-1 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since February 07, 2001 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game at home after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.