Mid-Week NBA Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Departing from the day-to-day tip sheet produced here at Vegasinsider.com, this installment of the NBA betting preview will traverse through the next two days. A quick look ahead reveals several matchups that pack plenty of tasty trends and stats for bettors to take advantage of. So here goes another attempt to weed out the contenders from the pretenders.
Thursday
Once again, Thursday’s professional basketball schedule will include two top notch games televised on TNT. On one hand we have an 8:00 p.m. EST showdown between San Antonio and the Lakers, while the late night tip-off at 10:30 p.m. EST will pit Cleveland and Phoenix together.
The Cavaliers (50-13 SU, 41-22 ATS) continue to be the league’s best friend for bettors. Cleveland is 11-2 in its last 13 games and has also walked backers to the window in exchange for a 9-4 ATS run. And while the Cavs are the team to beat in terms of financial revenue, a 7-10 ATS trend in the last 17 road games is something to look out for. Tuesday night's, 87-83 win over the Clippers was another solid outing for Cleveland but continued to prove just how financially sufficating road wagers have been on this team. Connecting the dots on why Cleveland covers at home much better then on the road runs directly parallel with the team’s 15.2 PPG margin inside Quicken Loans Arena versus a much closer, 4.2 PPG margin during road trips.
Phoenix (34-30 SU, 24-37-2 ATS) is coming off a brutal, four-game road trip for which the team went a winless, 0-4 SU and a not much more impressive, 1-3 ATS. And the problems continue as a 13-18 ATS (41.9%) record in home games (12-17 ATS as the home favorite) and a 13-20-1 ATS (39.4%) slide off one-day of rest is much to be desired. And the sun maybe setting in Phoenix as another damaging loss on Tuesday against Dallas (122-117) extended the team's losing streak to five games.
In their first meeting of the season, Cleveland was able to grab the win on Feb. 11, downing Phoenix 109-92 at home and as nine-point favorites. The total cashed in on the ‘over’ at 200 ½. Even after hitting 49.3 percent of its shots from the field (but just 27.3 percent from beyond the arc), the Suns took 16 fewer attempts then their opponent. Combine that with the Cavs’ 80 percent success rate from the free throw line versus Phoenix’s 70.8 percent and the discrepancies become quite apparent.
Emerging beyond this contest is the question; can we stick a fork in the Suns this year? While there's still games left in the season to truly determine the answer, in back of Dallas by five games for the eighth and final spot looks to be an unattainable position for Phoenix.
The Lakers are once again in the belly of the beast when it faces the Spurs (43-20 SU, 33-28-2 ATS). San Antonio had a rough time facing Cleveland (lost 97-86), Portland (lost 102-84) and Dallas (107-102) throughout the last seven games. The remaining four contests were wins in L.A. against the Clippers (106-78), Washington (100-78), Phoenix (103-98) and its most recent 'W' versus Charlotte (100-86) at home. The reoccurring theme in these wins was taking easy wins against teams under .500 by a 28, 22 and 14-point margins.
The Spurs have weathered a storm which included playing 17 road games in the last 25 games overall. Throughout that stretch, Tim Duncan and company have gone 10-7 SU and 9-7 ATS. But home games have been at a premium as San Antonio is 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS. Against its Western Conference foes, San Antonio is a solid 22-14-1 ATS and is 19-11-2 ATS off one-day of rest.
Stay tuned for updated stats, trends and injuries as they become available.
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: NBA on TNT
By VICTOR RYAN
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (-2, 196)
Head to Head
This is the third and final regular season matchup between the Western Conference’s top two teams. The Spurs and Lakers squared off twice in January. San Antonio escaped with a 112-111 win as 3-point home favorites on January 14 and Los Angeles avenged the defeat 11 days later by covering as 7.5-point home favorites 99-85.
Back on Track
It was just two weeks ago that the Spurs were mired in their worst slump of the season. Their lone straight-up win came over the lowly Clippers during a four-game span with Manu Ginobili continuing to watch from the bench because of an ankle injury. While Ginobili remains sidelined, the Spurs have managed to right the ship thanks to inspired play from Tony Parker and a stingy defense.
The Spurs have won three straight - both straight up and against the number - following their 100-86 win over the hot Charlotte Bobcats Tuesday night. Parker has helped ease Ginobili’s loss by increasing his scoring during that span and the Spurs are also back to playing championship-caliber defense. They have given up an average of just 89 points a game over their last five.
"We've been playing pretty solid," Spurs forward Kurt Thomas told reporters. "We hit a few bumps in the road when we lost a couple of games. But I think we've bounced back and hopefully we can show that on Thursday night."
The Spurs will continue to be without recent acquisition Drew Gooden because of a groin injury. Gooden has yet to see action as a Spur and Coach Greg Popovich said it would be about another week before he plays.
What Goes Up Must Come Down
The Lakers, owners of the league’s best record for most of the season, suffered their worst loss of the year Monday night and have now dropped three of their last five straight up, all coming on the road. This will be the second game of a back-to-back following their tilt with Houston Wednesday night.
Portland pasted the Lakers 111-94 Monday and it wasn’t even as close as the score indicated. The Blazers led by as many as 30 points in the second half before coasting to the wire.
“I think we’re still learning how to carry the type of thrust you have to carry night in and night out,” guard Derek Fisher told the Los Angeles Times. “There is a reason not too many teams have won 70 games. It’s not easy. We moved along at a good pace until we hit this lull right here.”
The Lakers will play 10 of their next 13 on the road.
The Portland game was overshadowed a bit by Trevor Ariza’s hard foul on Rudy Fernandez that led to pushing and shoving from both sides. Ariza escaped the incident without suspension, but Lamar Odom was given a one-game suspension for leaving the bench area. He’ll be back in the lineup after sitting out Wednesday against the Rockets.
Trends
Lakers are 5-2 in their last seven games ATS on zero days rest.
Lakers are 1-4 in their last five games vs. teams with a winning straight-up record.
Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games
Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns (+4, 219)
Head to Head
Cleveland easily handled the Suns 109-92 as 9-point home favorites on Feb 11 in these teams only previous matchup this season. Guard Mo Williams went off for 44 points on 7-of-9 shooting from behind the arc to pace the Cavs in that one.
Fading Suns
The Suns enter this having lost five straight including their 122-117 home loss to Dallas Tuesday night. The honeymoon appears officially over for interim coach Alvin Gentry, who took over at the All-Star break and produced immediate results by reinstalling the Suns’ run-and-gun offense.
The loss to Dallas followed the Suns’ first 0-4 road trip since 2004. After the game, guard Steve Nash blasted the effort of the Suns.
“I felt like our output in the second half wasn’t nearly up to where it could have been,” he said. “Our concentration, I felt, could have improved a lot. I’m very disappointed with the way we played.”
They Call Him King
Somehow, the Cleveland Cavaliers found themselves down 19 points to the Clippers in the fourth quarter Tuesday night. That was until LeBron James stepped to the fore. James poured in 20 of his 32 points in the second half, added 11 assists and 13 rebounds to rally the Cavs past the Clippers 87-83. It was James’ second consecutive triple-double and fifth of the season.
The Cavs, who were tied with the Lakers for the best record in the NBA entering Wednesday’s action, have won six of their last seven straight up.
“This is a gut check win for us and we needed it,” James told the local media. “Especially when you see the battle with what is going on in Boston and the Lakers and Orlando trying to establish home court.”
James also added that he would be willing to play more minutes down the stretch to help secure home-court advantage. James is averaging a career-low 37.5 minutes a game this season. Cavs coach Mike Brown said that should allow James to play more extensive minutes down the stretch.
Trends
Cavaliers are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss.
Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday night games.
Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
Over is 7-1 in Cavaliers last eight vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
LA LAKERS (50 - 13) at SAN ANTONIO (43 - 20)
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 476-407 ATS (+28.3 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 308-254 ATS (+28.6 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 112-80 ATS (+24.0 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 203-161 ATS (+25.9 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 46-32 ATS (+10.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 9-5 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 9-5 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND (50 - 13) at PHOENIX (34 - 30)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHOENIX is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHOENIX is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS vs. SAN ANTONIO
LA Lakers are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games
LA Lakers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games on the road
San Antonio is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
CLEVELAND vs. PHOENIX
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, March 12
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio (8 p.m. EDT). The Spurs bring a three-game winning streak into the matchup between the teams with the best records in the Western Conference. Los Angeles, which beat San Antonio in last year’s conference finals, expects to have Lamar Odom back after he was suspended for Wednesday’s victory at Houston.
STARS
Wednesday
— Kobe Bryant, Lakers, scored 18 of his 37 points in the fourth quarter, winning a contentious duel with Ron Artest, and Los Angeles ended Houston’s 12-game home winning streak with a 102-96 victory.
— Dwyane Wade, Heat, scored 32 points, including the game-sealing 3-pointer with 34 seconds left, and Miami held on to beat Boston 107-99.
— Chris Paul, Hornets, compiled his NBA-leading sixth triple-double with 30 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds, steering New Orleans over Washington 109-98.
— Nate Robinson, Knicks, scored 30 points to help New York beat Detroit 116-111 in overtime for its second road victory in two nights.
— Thaddeus Young, 76ers, scored a career-high 29 points in Philadelphia’s 115-106 victory over Toronto.
— Renaldo Balkman, Nuggets, had 14 points and 14 rebounds for his first double-double since Feb. 1, 2008, and Denver snapped a three-game losing streak by beating Oklahoma City 112-99.
SNAPPED
The Atlanta Hawks snapped Utah’s 12-game winning streak with a 100-93 victory Wednesday. Joe Johnson scored 31 points and Josh Smith had 22 points and 12 rebounds for the Hawks, who have won three in a row. The Jazz fell three games shy of their team record of 15 straight wins, set twice during the 1996-97 season. … Houston and Portland both had 12-game home winning streaks snapped. The Rockets lost 102-96 to the Lakers, while the Trail Blazers fell 93-89 to the Dallas Mavericks.
SECURED
The Orlando Magic became the third team to clinch a playoff spot with their 107-79 victory over the Chicago Bulls. Tony Battie had 18 points and eight rebounds, and Orlando got a big boost from its bench, with J.J. Redick scoring 13 points and Marcin Gortat adding 13 points and 15 rebounds. The Magic have won five of their last six games and moved closer to taking another Southeast Division title. Cleveland and Boston had already secured postseason berths.
STATUS
Portland guard Rudy Fernandez missed Wednesday’s 93-89 loss to Dallas with a hip pointer and bruised chest, but said he felt “much better than Monday,” when he was carried from the Rose Garden floor on a stretcher after a hard foul by the Lakers’ Trevor Ariza. Fernandez, who didn’t have an opinion about Ariza’s foul other than to say he wasn’t angry, was unsure when he might practice or play. “For me, it was scary,” Fernandez said. “Every day, I feel better.” … Magic forward Hedo Turkoglu missed Orlando’s 107-79 victory over Chicago with a lower foot injury he sustained in the team’s loss at Detroit on Monday. He is day to day.
SNACKING
On one play during Orlando’s 107-79 home victory over Chicago, the Bulls’ John Salmons dived into the first row trying to save the ball, tumbling over a few fans sitting courtside. Magic guard Rafer Alston helped one fan out after the play by picking up his popcorn—then Alston ate a handful, smiled and hustled downcourt. “Got to have fun with the fans,” Alston said.
SPEAKING
“It wasn’t much of a battle. I kicked his (butt) tonight. We’ve had some battles in the past and he’s gotten the best of me a few times. Tonight, I got the best of him.”—Kobe Bryant, after scoring 37 points to win his duel with Ron Artest and lead the Lakers over the Rockets, 102-96.
NBA Notes Thursday
by GoodFella
LA Lakers @ San Antonio
-These teams have split two meetings this season, with both teams winning at home. San Antonio is playing their 4th & final game of their 4 game homestand tonight, & they are 3-0 SU & ATS so far-
-San Antonio is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS their L/9 home games & the Spurs are 6-0 ATS L/6 games as a home favorite & 9-3 ATS L/12 games vs a team with a winning SU record, while the Lakers are just 1-4 ATS L/5 road games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher-
-LA Lakers rallied in the 2nd half last night to defeat Houston last night at Houston. Tonight is the Lakers 3rd road game in 4 nights & vs 3 of the NBA's top teams (Portland, Houston & SA tonight) so this is a difficult spot for LA tonight & the Lakers are just 1-4 SU L/5 games they have played at San Antonio-
Cleveland @ Phoenix
-Cleveland beat Phoenix at Cleveland 109-92 as 9 pt favs back on Feb. 11th & that win broke a 4 game losing streak vs the Suns for the Cavs & Cleveland is 7-1 ATS their L/8 games vs a team with a winning SU record-
-Phoenix has lost 5 straight games, including a crushing defeat on Tuesday vs the team (Dallas) they were chasing for the #8 spot in the Western Conference playoff seeding race. That puts the Suns 5.5 games behind the #8 spot with just 17 games remaining in their season-
-Cleveland is coming off a huge 4th Q rally over the Clippers on Tuesday night to steal a win away from the lowly Clipps & the Cavs are now 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS their L/13 games overall-
-Phoenix is 2-7 ATS L/9 games vs a team with a winning SU record & Phoenix is also 2-5 ATS L/7 home games vs a team with a road win% of .600 or higher-
Thursday Research
By Indiancowboy
Spurs vs. Lakers
The Spurs have revenge from an earlier season loss to the Lakers by 14 on the road - the Spurs had beaten the Lakers by 1 at home prior to that. So, this is a rubber game in some ways. The Lakers come off a fortunate win against the Rockets and the Spurs weren't all that impressive against the Bobcats. The Spurs will likely showcase Drew Gooden today of whom they got from the Bulls recently. A small lean on the Spurs, but more importantly, a stronger lean on the Under.