Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday NBA card will likely be overshadowed by the first day of March Mayhem, but TNT will televise a pair of games, allowing bettors an alternative to college hoops. The battle of the Sunshine State leads off the double-header with the Heat hosting the Magic, followed by the Nuggets entertaining the Hornets.
Magic (47-21 SU, 36-31-1 ATS) at Heat (35-33 SU, 34-34 ATS)
These two Southeast Division rivals meet for the final team in the regular season as Orlando tries to even up the series at two games apiece (7:00 PM EST). The Magic will be playing with no rest following Wednesday's home contest against the Spurs. San Antonio ran out Miami on Tuesday in the opening leg of a trip through Florida, as the Heat fell to the Spurs, 88-76.
The Magic have improved greatly on the road since a mid-season slump away from Amway Arena. Orlando is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS the last nine on the highway, even though its last three victories are over the Wizards, Nets, and Sixers. Stan Van Gundy's squad has limited eight of the last nine opponents to 100 points or less, while ten of the previous 13 games have finished 'under' the total.
Miami's six-game winning streak at the AAA was halted by San Antonio, but the only positive sign from the loss was the Heat allowing less than 100 points for the sixth consecutive game. The 'under' against the Spurs did end a six-game 'over' streak at home for the Heat, while Erik Spoelstra's team is now 5-2 ATS the last seven in South Florida.
The Heat owns the upper-hand in the series with a pair of victories over the Magic during the first two months of the season. Miami edged Orlando in central Florida the night before Thanksgiving, 99-98 on a late Michael Beasley tip-in. The Heat cashed as 9 ½-point 'dogs, the first win in Orlando since February 15, 2006. Miami chased Orlando out less than a month later at home, 104-86, again covering easily as four-point home underdogs. The Magic avenged those two losses with a 96-80 pasting of the Heat in late February, cashing as 11 ½-point favorites.
Hornets (33-35 SU, 31-36-1 ATS) at Nuggets (46-22, 31-32-5 ATS)
New Orleans continues a five-game road trip with the final meeting against Denver, trying to beat the Nuggets for a second time. The Hornets will be on the second of a back-to-back after Wednesday's contest at Golden State. The Nuggets, meanwhile, had to slug through a lackluster 97-87 win over the Wizards on Tuesday, the first home game following a four-game roadie.
The Hornets have nearly dropped out of playoff contention in the Western Conference after losing nine of their previous 12 games. The month of March has not been a pleasant one for backers of New Orleans with a 1-7 ATS run. Jeff Bower's club has struggled against the best teams in the West, going 5-16 SU and 8-12-1 ATS versus the top seven clubs in playoff contention.
The Nuggets have won seven of eight with the only hiccup coming in a three-point road loss to the Rockets. Denver has failed to cover back-to-back games for only the second time since early January, going 10-2-1 ATS the last 13 off an ATS loss. George Karl's team is just 4-6 ATS the last ten at Pepsi Center, but seven of those games have finished 'over' the total.
Denver topped New Orleans, 102-95 in the Big Easy on March 12, as the Nuggets closed out the game with a 29-20 fourth quarter. The Hornets managed covers in the first two meetings, including a 116-110 overtime setback at the Pepsi Center as 12-point 'dogs in late January. New Orleans has not won in Denver since Thanksgiving Night in 2008, a span of six games.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
It's amazing how the tables have turned in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race over the last month. The Bucks needed to make a run, while the Bobcats were slowly disappearing in the race. Both these teams have straightened things out, while the Raptors and Bulls can't get out of their own way. Toronto has dropped nine of ten heading into Wednesday's home game with Atlanta. Chicago is dealing with a multitude of injuries, while losing eight straight games. Heading into Wednesday's contest at Dallas, the Bulls will be listed as a double-digit underdog for the fourth consecutive time.
One team that has definitely not turned the corner is the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves. Kurt Rambis' squad is riding a 10-game losing skid, while dropping 16 of 17 since a four-game winning streak in February. The low point of this slump was Sunday in a 14-point loss at Sacramento, in which the Wolves trailed by as many 34 points. That was trumped two days later when Minnesota allowed a season-high 152 points at Phoenix, the second time the Wolves have yielded at least 146 points this season.
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What Bettors Need To Know: TNT NBA Doubleheader
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat (+3, 187)
Team game
Vince Carter passed Bob Lanier at the No. 43 spot on the NBA’s all-time scoring list in a 96-89 home loss to Charlotte on Saturday, but Carter said he does not care about any “individual stuff,” including a potential induction into the Hall of Fame.
“I'll just finish my career and hopefully, at the end of the day, it's good enough,” Carter told the Orlando Sentinel. “I don't play the game for that reason. It's an honor, but before that happens, I'd like to try to win a championship.”
Rashard Lewis is also focused on team glory, in part because he is mired in his own slump at the moment.
“There's been times when I've got frustrated over shots and wanted to get the ball,” Lewis explained to the Sentinel. “But I wasn't on a good team. This time, I'm a veteran. All that matters is winning. I'm on a good a team, a playoff team, a team that's competing for a championship.”
And the Magic (47-21, 36-31-1 ATS) have been competing quite well of late. They won eight games in a row (6-2 ATS) prior to Saturday’s setback and still sit atop of the Southeast Division standings.
Beasley returns
Michael Beasley (15.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg), who missed two games with a thigh injury, returned as the Heat fell at home to San Antonio 88-76 Tuesday. Listed as questionable prior to the game, Beasley scored six points and grabbed five boards in just 18 minutes of action.
Small forward Dorell Wright (6.2 ppg) also returned Tuesday after being suspended for two games. Wright had four points and three rebounds in 14 minutes. Miami happened to win both home contests without its two players (108-95 over Chicago and 104-91 against Philadelphia).
While Beasley and Wright should continue to get back into the swing of things against Orlando, Mario Chalmers (7.3 ppg, 3.4 apg) is questionable due to an illness. Chalmers has played at least 21 minutes in each of Miami’s past four games.
Prior engagements
Orlando and Miami have already faced each other three times this season, with the Heat leading 2-1 (2-1 ATS) in their head-to-head series. Miami won the first two meetings, but Orlando got revenge as an 11.5-favorite at home on February 28, drubbing the Heat 96-80. The Magic turned the ball over just seven times and overcame an underwhelming performance (seven points and five rebounds) from Dwight Howard.
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Orlando is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against the Eastern Conference. Miami is 5-1 in its last six home outings and 5-2 ATS in its last seven overall.
Both the Magic (26-41-1 O/U) and the Heat (29-38-1 O/U) are outstanding under plays this season. The under was 24-8-1 in Orlando’s last 33 overall heading into a home date with San Antonio on Wednesday, but the over is 6-2 in Miami’s last eight overall.
The Magic are 7-8 (6-9 ATS) in the second of back-to-back games this season.
Head-to-head, Orlando is 11-4-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings between the two teams.
New Orleans Hornets at Denver Nuggets (-13, 214)
Undermanned
New Orleans (33-35, 31-36-1 ATS) has played with only eight players in its past three games. Among those on the injury list are Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic and James Posey. Both Paul (knee) and Stojakovic (abdominal) are out until late March and Posey is dealing with the flu.
“It’s a short-term situation that we’re in,” GM Jeff Bower told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. “Quite frankly, the eight players that we have are better than anyone we could bring in. This gives them an opportunity to play extended minutes. It’s something we’re going to continue with for now.”
The results have painted an accurate picture of the story, as the Hornets have lost seven of their past nine games. They at least managed to end a seven-game road losing streak with a 107-100 win at Los Angeles (the Clippers, of course) Monday night.
Fatigue has been most apparent on the defensive end of the floor. New Orleans gave up 108.9 points per game during its road losing streak while allowing opponents to shoot 51 percent from the floor.
Mile high scoring
If the Hornets are struggling defensively, Denver is the team they want to be going up against right now. The Nuggets (46-22, 31-32-5 ATS) went on a six-game winning streak from March 3 to March 13. During that span, the Nuggets scored 116 points per game and connected on more than 51 percent of their field-goal attempts.
Although the streak came to an end on Monday at Houston, Denver still scored 123 in a two-point loss.
“We’re just trying to get up and down and just playing,” Chauncey Billups told the Denver Post. “More importantly, everybody’s just been moving the ball, passing the ball. Our assists have been up. If we get double-teamed we’re kicking it out to shooters.”
Prior engagements
The Nuggets are 2-1 (1-2 ATS) against New Orleans this season. As 1-point road favorites on December 18, they fell to the Hornets 98-92. Denver, however, pulled out a 116-10 overtime win at home on January 23 and most recently won 102-195 at New Orleans last Friday.
A 5.5-point home underdog in Friday’s contest, New Orleans suited up only eight players and could not overcome a trio of double-doubles by the Nuggets (Carmelo Anthony, Johan Petro and Nene).
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The Hornets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road contests. The Nuggets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six against Western Conference opponents.
New Orleans, which plays at Golden State on Wednesday, is 6-7 (8-5 ATS) in the second of back-to-back games in 2009-10.
Neither New Orleans (34-33-1 O/U) nor Denver (34-34 O/U) has been a good over/under play this season. The over, however, is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six home games.
Head-to-head, Denver is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between the two teams and 4-1 ATS in the last five at home.
NBA RoundUp For 3/18
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Heat - Orlando by 3 with a total of 187. If you want to talk about a game that LOOKS way too easy, this is about as tempting a road favorite as the oddsmakers can throw at the public. Now, remembering for a moment that there really aren't such things as "traps" and that lines that look like a trap are actually grounded in some sort of mathematical illusion, let's make sure we take a microscope to this one. Interestingly, Miami won the first 2 meetings between these Florida rivals this season, one game in both Miami and Orlando. Not surprisingly, the Magic got some revenge in the last meeting, a February 28th home beating of the Heat. So, now it's sort of the Heat who have the revenge angle, and in terms of which team actually needs this game more, that angle is a runaway Heat winner. Another situational angle to consider is that the Magic are on a back-to-back, and they're just 6-8-2 ATS in those spots this year. We have also seen that the Magic seem less inclined to play defense when they're a little tired - they are 10-6 O/U on back-to-backs, but that, I believe, comes into play more when they're going against an opponent that wants to try to run the ball. With the Heat, I think Miami is content playing a slower game, and keeping it a possession by possession slugfest. Okay, so the total might not be the way to go in this one - we know Miami wants it low scoring, and we know Orlando likes to get out and trade buckets when they're tired, figuring they might not win by 15, but they can save energy by only using strength on the offensive end, the easier end of the floor, and because of their talent advantage, trading buckets usually works. I think the most important angle in this game, and if we end up making a play on this game, we'll look at it further, but this line is just all kinds of crazy. And I know what you're thinking - surely the Magic are better than 3 points superior to the Heat tonight - well, not necessarily. Because of the back-to-back, this, in effect, is like saying Orlando is 8 points better than Miami on a neutral court. That's a ton of points to lay against a fellow playoff team. And just take a peek at how the recent games against the Spurs can tell us quite a bit. The Heat-Spurs game tipped with the Heat as 2.5-point favorites, in effect saying that the Spurs are, at most, 1 point better on a neutral court. Then, the next night, San Antonio goes off as a 7-point dog in Orlando, effectively making them 2-point dogs on a neutral size. If the Magic are truly just 3 points better than the Heat, they should be getting 2 points, not giving 3. This is one of the most lopsided lines I can remember based on the perception that the Magic are unstoppable. No way I could bet the Magic in this game - this is a huge game for the Heat, and Orlando likes the spotlight, but the motivational edge is decidedly with Miami. Lean to the Heat, and lean to the Over.
Hornets @ Nuggets - Denver by 13 with a total of 214. If at first you DO succeed, do that crap again. I just made that up based on last night's winner with Utah. The Hornets are playing their little stingers off in Golden State as we speak, and as of midnight here in the Eastern Standard, that game hasn't even hit the 3rd quarter. I'm watching the Tom Izzo NBA League Pass halftime interview for the 3rd time tonight, just waiting to see if the Hornets continue to roll, or if the Warriors start to play a little better. Honestly, though, I don't think it's going to matter. The Denver Nuggets are playing their second game back home after being forced to play on Tuesday in a 4th-in-5 situation, against a Wizards team playing its 5th game in 6 nights. Just a weird scheduling anomaly, and somehow the Nuggets prevailed by 10. You guys know how I feel about these fatigue spots. The Hornets are on their way to winning 2 straight on the West coast, as they're currently up 13 on Golden State after putting the Clippers down a couple nights back. Then, they have to get into Denver at 3am, or later, local time, try to get checked into the hotel, maybe get some food after all the running and scoring that takes place in Oakland, and if they're asleep by 5am, it's probably a moral victory. Hell, even if they're asleep by 4, a full night of rest would mean they wake at noon, and for those of us who have stayed up to 4 or 5am lately, once you're a couple years out of College, waking up at noon just makes you feel like you sucked down 3 Big Macs to start your day. The only other option is getting up at 9 or 10 on 5 hours of sleep, trying to adjust to the altitude during practice and whatever gameplanning you can get done against one of the toughest teams in the NBA, napping, then trying to play full speed for 48 minutes. Just can't be done. Now, that doesn't mean the Nuggets cover (or the Jazz, for that matter, though they have done so quite often), but it certainly means that the Hornets won't be hitting many outside shots, and the Nugs could absolutely thrash the Hornets on the offensive glass if they stay aggressive. Also, the Hornets already don't play much defense, how do we expect them to contain the Nuggets when they're tired? Denver could hang 40 on 'em in the 3rd quarter. I lean Nuggets to cover the chalk and I lean to the Over.
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Magic at Heat – The Magic are 0-6 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since March 21, 1997 as a favorite with no rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since December 02, 2007 after a game at home in which they scored at least 25 fewer points than in the game before.
Hornets at Nuggets – The Hornets are 0-5 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 03, 2009 as a road dog with no rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 25, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Nuggets are 6-0-1 ATS (6.4 ppg) since January 22, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Tips and Trends
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
Magic (-3.5, O/U 187): Orlando continues to cruise along with the overall 3rd best record in the NBA at 48-21 SU. Orlando has won 9 of their past 10 games SU, The Magic continue to play well ATS as well, going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games. The Magic are getting great play of late from both C Dwight Howard and G Vince Carter. Howard has been brilliant nearly all season long, averaging a team high 18.6 PPG and an NBA high 13.1 RPG. Howard has been held in check against Miami though, as he's only averaging 12 PPG and 11.7 RPG in the 3 matchups this season. Carter is averaging 19 PPG while shooting nearly 55% from the field over his past 10 games. The Magic are 20-14 SU and 16-15-3 on the road this season. Orlando is 30-28 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 1-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 PTS or fewer. Orlando is 12-8 ATS since the start of the 2nd half of the season. Defensively, the Magic have held their past 7 opponents under 97 PTS.
Magic is 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite.
Under is 10-3 last 13 games as a road favorite.
Key Injuries - G Mickael Pietrus (ankle) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 99 (Side of the Day)
Heat: Today will mark the 4th time Miami has seen their state rival this season. Miami has won 2 of the 3 meetings thus far SU, with all 3 meetings coming as the listed underdog. If the playoffs started today these teams would face off yet again. Miami is 35-33 SU this season, placing them 7th in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. The Heat are 20-15 SU and 17-18 ATS at home this season. Miami is 18-16 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 2-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 PTS or less. The Heat have gone 6-2 SU since losing in blowout fashion to the Magic a few weeks ago. The Heat have had the same exact end result both SU and ATS over their past 7 games. The Heat have scored 100 PTS or more in each of those recent 6 SU wins, while they've been held under 80 PTS in each of their 2 SU losses recently. G Dwyane Wade is 5th in the NBA in scoring at 26.6 PPG this season. Wade has taken on more of an offensive identity of late, averaging more than 30 PPG in his past 8 games.
Heat are 5-1 ATS last 6 home games.
Over is 6-1 last 7 home games.
Key Injuries - G Mario Chalmers (flu) is questionable.
G Rafer Alston (suspension) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 90
New Orleans Hornets at Denver Nuggets
Hornets: The sky is falling for everyone associated with New Orleans right now. 2 weeks ago the Hornets were battling for 7th place in the Western Conference playoff standings. Today they are in 11th place, 7.5 games back of the 8th spot. The Hornets game last night epitomizes their recent free fall. New Orleans lost last night SU to Golden St. after leading at the half by 13 PGS. The Hornets allowed Golden St. to score 43 PTS in the 4th quarter alone, on their way to a 131-121 victory. The Hornets have to recover quickly, as they now head into the altitude of Denver with no rest in between games. The Hornets are 33-35 SU and 31-36-1 ATS overall this season. New Orleans is 12-23 SU and 17-18 ATS away from home this season. The Hornets are a profitable 22-19 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Unfortunately, the month of March has been unkind for the Hornets as they are only 1-7 ATS thus far. F David West continues his recent hot play, as he's scored more than 30 PTS in 3 of his past 5 games. West leads 4 different Hornets currently averaging double figures in PTS, averaging 19.3 PPG himself.
Hornets are 8-1 ATS last 9 games as a road underdog of 11 PTS or more.
Over is 9-3 last 12 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - G Chris Paul (knee) is out.
F Peja Stojakovic (abdominal) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 104
Nuggets (-13, O/U 214): All is well in Denver, as the Nuggets have won 7 of their past 8 games SU to be tied for 2nd place in the brutal Western Conference. Denver is 46-22 SU and tied with Dallas for the #2 spot in the West. Both Denver and Dallas are tied for the 4th best record in the entire NBA. Coach Karl is inspiring his team both in his presence and his absence. The Nuggets have won both meetings SU with New Orleans this year, scoring more than 100 PTS in each occasion. These 2 teams met less than a week ago in New Orleans, as the Nuggets won both SU and ATS. Denver is 29-5 SU and 17-16-1 ATS in home games this season. Denver is 23-29 ATS overall as the listed favorite this season. All too often this season the Nuggets have played down to their competition. The Nuggets are 9-17 ATS when playing against a team with an overall SU losing record. F Carmelo Anthony is 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 28.8 PPG this season. As a team the Nuggets score 107.9 PPG, the 3rd most in the NBA.
Nuggets are 0-5 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite of 11 PTS or more.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - G Ty Lawson (shoulder) is questionable.
C Chris Andersen (finger) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 123 (OVER - Total of the Day)