NBA News and Notes Thursday 3/19

Thursday's NBA Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs

While Wednesday was ESPN’s time to shine, TNT enjoys its double-header telecast beginning with an 8:00 p.m. EDT duel between Portland and Cleveland. The Cavaliers are in the midst of a four-game home stand for which they’re attempting to build on a six-game winning streak.

The most recent ‘W’ came against Orlando as LeBron James propelled his Cleveland club in the final minute, draining a three-pointer in front of the Magic’s bench accompanied by two debilitating free throws. The problem deflected onto backers is the Cavs’ three straight against the spread defeats, marking six in the last 10 appearances.

And so Cleveland will once again descend upon its own home court when it welcomes the youthful, Trail Blazers into town. The Cavs have owned Thursday’s opponent, taking three straight wins in head-to-head play by a margin of five points. In return, Cleveland has also wrangled up three straight ATS wins and eight in the last 10 clashes.

Sticking on the topic of home stands, the Cavaliers have been knockout artists as a 30-1 record can attest. A 22-9 ATS performance inside Quicken Loans Arena has been possible thanks to the offensive unit exploding for 103.1 PPG and a staunch defensive effort, limiting opponents to a bottom low, 88.5 PPG allowed. We’re talking about a point difference of 14.5 PPG! Despite two ATS defeats in the last two home games, Cleveland is now 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests inside its own building.

The numbers might be provocative from a point spread perspective but there’s something else to take away from the home court advantage. How’s a 6-0 record on the ‘under’ treated you in the last six home games for Cleveland?

The ‘under’ run can be credited once again to the Cavs’ defense posting an incredible, 84.2 PPG allowed in these six contests (compared to allowing 88.5 PPG at home on the season). Adding depth to playing the total in this contest include Cleveland’s 23-11 record on the ‘under’ when coming off one-day of rest and a 31-22 (58.5%) performance on the ‘under’ when coming off a SU win.

Portland is walking a fine line in the No. 5 seeded spot in the West as New Orleans and Utah are just a half-game back. The Trail Blazers have had trouble against Dallas and Atlanta in the last week, dropping both contests SU and ATS. In-fact, Portland is now 3-5 ATS in its last eight.

The offense has proven erratic in the last four games, going on to record 106 PPG in the last two wins against Memphis (103-92) and New Jersey (98-80) only to fall flat in Atlanta (losing, 98-80) and against Dallas (losing, 93-89).

Some crooked statistics to watch out for begin with the Blazers’ 13-20 ATS inadequacy on the road this season and a 5-13 ATS drop as the road underdog. Complicating matters is a 3-6 ATS streak in the last nine road trips.

Individually, Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge recorded three straight double-doubles last week. In a hard fought win against the Lakers on Mar. 9, Aldridge put down 16 points on the stat sheet as 13 rebounds and four assists help compliment the 111-94 win. The victory helped improve the Trail Blazers’ home record versus teams playing above .500 to 8-6 ATS this season (although a 14-16 ATS stint overall versus winning teams hasn’t been the most profitable).

Portland heads into this contest possessing a 7-15 ATS record in its last 22 road games. In head-to-head meetings, the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 while the favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Golden State at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 p.m. EDT

It’s been a tough season for the Warriors but a 4-1 ATS stint in the last five has either surprised bettors out there or has hurt those continuing to take the fade route. But the bigger picture still has those going the latter route collecting on Golden State’s 5-8 ATS during the last 13.

The Warriors will be packing up their luggage after putting together a 3-1 SU and ATS record in their most recent four-game home stand. The only game to have slipped through Golden State’s fingers was a 154-130 explosive loss against Phoenix. The Warriors were installed as 1 ½-point home favorites. But the more important news from a wagering prospective is that the ‘over’ is now 5-0 in Golden State’s last five games.

But look out total bettors. The ‘over’ might be on a solid run and the Warriors are 24-10 on the ‘over’ at home this season but a 13-20 record on the ‘over’ on the road and a 15-11 ‘under’ performance as the road underdog speaks volumes. A bit more focus to this total talk reveals that Golden State is a more concentrated, 8-1 on the ‘under’ in their last nine road games.

And don’t let the ‘under’ records surprise you as the Warriors have scored 12.5 points per game less on the road versus at home. This has also translated into the team outscoring opponents by 2.6 points per game at home versus getting outscored by a large, 9.6 PPG margin on the road.

While L.A.’s loss against Portland on Mar. 9 was already mentioned, a 94-93 buzzer beating loss on Tuesday against Philadelphia only added insult to injury. It’s been a struggle for those gamblers risking dough on the Lakers in the last nine games as the team is a current 3-6 ATS. A coincidental 3-6 ATS record has been generated in the last nine home games.

What L.A.’s 103.3 PPG on offense and 98.4 PPG surrendered on defense has done in the last 11 games is create a solid, 8-3 record on the ‘under’. It was last Thursday that books took the Lakers lower offensive production and San Antonio’s stiff defense into heavy consideration, lowering the closing total to 194 points. This was the first time since Jan. 27 that books decided to set the total below the 200-point mark and only the 13th time this season (seven times the total was set below 200 points in the first eight games of the season).

The Lake Show is 8-2 on the ‘over’ in their last 10 versus the Pacific division while the ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight games versus the Western Conference.

In head-to-head matchups, the ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Lake Show is 6-3 ATS in their last nine tip-offs against Golden State.

Dallas at Atlanta – 7:00 p.m. EDT

-- Dallas snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday, defeating Detroit, 103-101 as a 6 ½-point favorite. A 16-8 SU performance in the last 24 has trickled down to a 14-10 ATS record with the ‘over’ going 13-11.

-- A 2-7 SU and a 3-6 ATS record in the last nine road games has proven that the Mavericks have been duds away from home. Combine that with a 3-7 ATS record in the last 10 following an SU win and a 19-22 ATS stint off one-day of rest and the outlook trends forecast a gloomy result for Dallas.

-- Atlanta has been able to flex its muscles, ripping down six wins in a row by an average point margin of 12 ½-points. You guessed it; with the large discrepancy in points, the Hawks have also cashed tickets at 6-0 ATS during the same successful stretch.

-- And then there’s Atlanta’s near spotless, a 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS record in its last 11 home games. When you’re a club producing 99.5 PPG on offense and shooting 47.4 percent from the field while closing out opponents to 92.9 PPG allowed then these are the results you’ll see from a home team (stats from Atlanta’s home games this season).

-- The Hawks have covered three of the last four head-to-head meetings against the Mavs.

-- Most books have opened Atlanta as a 5 ½-point with a total set at 196.5.

vegasinsider.com

Hot and Cold Bets - Week 20
By Matt Fargo

The NBA regular season is winding down fast and the games are becoming that much more important. Matt Fargo has been looking into Hot and Cold NBA bets throughout the season and he takes a look at four games that you will want to pay attention to coming up over the next few days.

NBA Cold Bets

Thursday – Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks 7:00 PM ET

Dallas was playing really well, going 15-6 through 21 games before losing back-to-back road games against the Lakers and Warriors. The road has not been kind of late, as the Mavericks are just 2-7 in their last nine roadies (3-6 ATS) to drop them under .500 away from home with a 16-19 mark. Dallas has done well against the Eastern Conference, going 18-7 but it is just 13-12 ATS and the Hawks will be looking for some payback following a tough two-point setback in Dallas back in December. Atlanta is 25-7 at home (19-13 ATS) and it has reeled off victories in five of the first seven games of this homestand. The Hawks have Sacramento on Tuesday before this game so they should be going for the homestand sweep here. Victories have been contagious as they are 23-15 following a win (23-14-1 ATS). Atlanta is 2.5 games ahead of Miami for the 4th spot in the Eastern Conference and with a schedule that features Cleveland, San Antonio, Boston twice, Los Angeles and Orlando in the next 16 days, these are the games that need to be won.

Double dribble: TNT NBA double header
By MATT SEVERANCE

Portland Trail Blazers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-9, 185)

Head to head

Cleveland won 104-98 in the Pacific Northwest as a 1-point dog on Jan. 21 for its third straight win in the series. LeBron James had a season-high (and one short of a career high) 14 assists to go along with 34 points. Mo Williams added 33 points while only one other Cav had more than 12 points. Cleveland played that night without starters Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Delonte West due to injury.

Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge combined for 44 points for the Blazers, who played the Cavs without then-injured starting point guard Steve Blake.

Injury report

Cleveland will be without two players who contributed to that January win at the Rose Garden. Ben Wallace, who had four points and three rebounds in 28 minutes in the first meeting, remains out with a broken leg. Wally Szczerbiak sprained his left knee in Tuesday's win over Orlando and will miss up to three weeks. Szczerbiak, who had 10 rebounds and eight points against Portland in January, had surgery on the knee three years ago. With Szczerbiak out, the Cavs will likely use Tarence Kinsey more and as well as the inconsistent Daniel Gibson, who hasn't left the bench in the past two games.

With several other Cavaliers still not 100 percent ( Ilgauskas is playing through a broken nose and sprained thumb) coach Mike Brown gave the team the day off Wednesday.

Portland is pretty healthy, as Greg Oden returned to action against Indiana Wednesday night. He hadn't played since Feb. 12 when he injured his left knee cap in a collision with Golden State's Corey Maggette. Oden, who has missed 21 games total this season, will come off the bench for the time being to get his conditioning back. The rookie fouled out in 25 minutes in the first meeting with Cleveland but did manage 10 points and eight rebounds.

Invincible at home

Cleveland's 97-93 win over the Magic Tuesday improved the Cavs to 30-1 at home (23-8 ATS) and was their sixth straight win. The NBA's best record ever at home in one season is the 40-1 mark of the 1985-86 Celtics.

Tuesday's game was just the fifth time the Cavaliers have trailed heading into the fourth quarter at home this season and the Cavs are 4-1 in those.

James continued his recent incredible play with 43 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists and four steals against Orlando. The last player to accumulate at least those totals in the four categories in one game was Larry Bird in 1992. During the winning streak, James is averaging 32.2 points, 9.5 rebounds and 10.5 assists.

Anderson Varejao also is stepping it up for the Cavs, averaging 10.4 points and 9.7 rebounds over the last five games.

Trends

The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.

Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers last six home games.

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers (-13.5, 233.5)

Head to head

The Lakers have averaged 124.3 points in winning all three meetings (2-1 ATS) with Golden State this season. The lowest-scoring game featured 220 points and that was the only one to go under the total. Los Angeles has won 13 of 15 overall in the series and 10 of 11 at Staples Center.

Injury report

Andrew Bynum remains out for the Lakers. Coach Phil Jackson won't even mention Bynum's name to reporters until April. Bynum played in two of the three earlier games with the Warriors, totaling 31 points and 21 rebounds.

For Golden State, center Andris Biedrins will be out until April because of a sprained ankle. Former Laker Ronny Turiaf will get most of his minutes. Stephen Jackson will return from a one-game suspension for accumulating too many technical fouls. Jamal Crawford will ride the pine for a second consecutive game in coach Don Nelson's plan to bench some starters at random for young players. Marco Belinelli will start again.

Angry Lakers

Look for Los Angeles and Kobe Bryant to be plenty motivated to crush the Warriors following the Lakers' 94-93 loss to the 76ers on an Andre Iguodala buzzer-beating 3-pointer Tuesday.

That was just the Lakers' fifth home loss of the season (they had won their past seven at Staples, going 3-4 ATS). It was the first time in seven years that the Lakers lost a home game in which they led by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter. Bryant was held to just 11 points on 5-of-15 shooting against Philly and the Laker bench was outscored 36-18.

Jackson was perturbed afterward, as expected. He had warned the team it was lacking a killer instinct and he also laid into the second unit while hinting at possible rotation changes.

"We're just not coming out and really attacking and playing aggressive in the substitution role and that's now become prevalent and it's become an issue. … Our regular rotations aren't working well right now,” Jackson told reporters.

Bryant might go off against a Warriors defense that allows a league-worst 112.3 points per game and gave up 154 to Phoenix and 120 to the Clippers in the past two games. Kobe, by the way didn't practice Wednesday because he was summoned for potential jury duty. How much would you like to bet he gets out of that? Bryant is averaging 27.3 points against Golden State this year while Pau Gasol is averaging 23.3 points and 13.3 rebounds.

This is the Lakers' final home game before a seven-game, two-week road trip.

Trends

Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.

Warriors are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater.

Under is 8-1 in Warriors last nine road games.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks

Dirk Nowitzki drained 30 points to lift the Mavericks past the Pistons 103-101 on Tuesday night.

Dallas couldn't cover as 6-point home favorites as the teams played over the 188.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.

Al Horford went for 23 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists, as the Hawks overpowered the Kings 119-97 on Tuesday night.

Atlanta cashed as 12-point home favorites as the game played over the 202.5-point total set by sportsbooks.

Current streak:
Atlanta has won 6 straight games.

Team records:
Dallas: 41-27 SU, 33-35 ATS
Atlanta: 40-28 SU, 38-30 ATS

Dallas most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Indiana are 9-1
After playing Detroit are 7-3
After a win are 4-6

Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Cleveland are 6-4
After playing Sacramento are 4-6
After a win are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Next up:
Dallas at Indiana, Friday, March 20
Atlanta at Cleveland, Saturday, March 21

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Trail Blazers got out to a comfortable lead early on Wednesday, as they rode to a 95-85 win over the Pacers. That game's 180 points went UNDER the game's posted total of 203.

Brandon Roy led the way with 20 points, six rebounds and six assists. Steve Blake dished out eight assists in the victory.

LeBron James had 43 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists, and four steals to lift the Cavaliers past the Magic 97-93 on Tuesday night.

Cleveland couldn't cover as 6-point home favorites as the game played under the 190-point total posted by sportsbooks.

Current streak:
Portland has won 2 straight games.
Cleveland has won 6 straight games.

Team records:
Portland: 43-25 SU, 35-33 ATS
Cleveland: 54-13 SU, 41-26 ATS

Portland most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 3-7
Before playing Milwaukee are 3-7
After playing Indiana are 2-8
After a win are 6-4

Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Atlanta are 5-5
After playing Orlando are 5-5
After a win are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
Portland is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Portland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Portland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland

Next up:
Portland at Milwaukee, Saturday, March 21
Cleveland home to Atlanta, Saturday, March 21

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Monta Ellis had 29 points and six assists, as the Warriors slammed the Clippers 127-100 on Tuesday night.

Golden State won as 1.5-point home favorites as the game played over the 225-point total listed by oddsmakers.

Pau Gasol went for 25 points, eight rebounds, and six assists for Los Angeles in its 94-93 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday night.

Philadelphia won as 10.5-point road underdogs as the game played under the 203.5-point total set by sportsbooks.

Team records:
Golden State: 24-43 SU, 32-34-1 ATS
Los Angeles: 53-14 SU, 33-33-1 ATS

Golden State most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Philadelphia are 4-6
After playing LA Clippers are 2-8
After a win are 3-7

Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Chicago are 5-5
After playing Philadelphia are 7-3
After a loss are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 9 games on the road
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Golden State
LA Lakers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home
LA Lakers are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games at home

Next up:
Golden State home to Philadelphia, Friday, March 20
LA Lakers at Chicago, Saturday, March 21

DALLAS (41 - 27) at ATLANTA (40 - 28)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games in March games this season.
ATLANTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 42-27 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games this season.
ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
ATLANTA is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 213-168 ATS (+28.2 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 206-147 ATS (+44.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PORTLAND (42 - 25) at CLEVELAND (54 - 13)
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-1 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 4-1 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

GOLDEN STATE (24 - 43) at LA LAKERS (53 - 14)
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 66-81 ATS (-23.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in road games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more this season.
LA LAKERS are 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 46-31 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 7-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 9-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS vs. ATLANTA
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

PORTLAND vs. CLEVELAND
Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Portland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

GOLDEN STATE vs. LA LAKERS
Golden State is 1-10 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Golden State
LA Lakers are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games when playing Golden State

Hot Teams
-- Hawks won, covered their last six games. Mavericks are 8-4 in last 12 games.
-- Cavaliers won last six games, failed to cover last three. Portland is 8-3 in its last eleven games.
-- Warriors won three of their last four games. Lakers won five of their last seven contests.

Cold Teams
-- None.

Totals
-- Five of last six Atlanta games stayed under the total; nine of last 12 Dallas games went over.
-- Last six Cleveland home games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Golden State games went over the total.

Back-to Back
-- Dallas is 4-0 vs spread playing first of two consecutive nites on road.
-- Warriors are 3-9 vs spread if they play again the next night.