Dallas (47-24, 29-41-1) at Portland (42-29, 37-32-2 ATS)
The surging Trail Blazers shoot for their ninth win in their last 11 games when they welcome the Mavericks to the Rose Garden.
Dallas had followed up a 13-game winning streak by dropping two straight and three of four before beating the Clippers 106-96 at home Tuesday, narrowly cashing as a 9½-point favorite. Jason Kid led the charge with 26 points 12 assists and six rebounds. The spread-cover snapped a five-game ATS skid and was just the second time in their last six games the Mavericks reached triple digits on the scoreboard.
Portland hasn’t played since Sunday, went it fell in Phoenix 93-87, pushing as a six-point pup. Guards Brandon Roy and Andre Miller combined for 55 points, 11 rebound and 11 assists, but neither had a great game from the field, shooting a combined 15-for-45. The Blazers had won eight of nine (5-4 ATS) prior to Sunday, and they enter tonight riding a four-game winning streak at home (2-2 ATS).
The road team has won three straight in this series and four of the last five, cashing in all four victories. Portland went into Dallas twice this season and came out with close wins, an 85-81 triumph back in December as a 5½-point ‘dog and a 114-112 overtime victory on Jan. 30 as an 8½-point underdog. Still, the Mavericks have had recent success in the Rose Garden, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Portland.
Dallas is on ATS runs of 4-0 as an underdog and 5-1 on the road, but otherwise is on pointspread skids of 1-5 overall, 5-22 on Thursdays, 5-15-1 after a spread-cover, 5-13-1 against Western Conference teams and 7-18-1 after getting a day off. The Blazers have cashed in four straight against Southwest Division teams and 10 of 14 after a straight-up loss, but they are on ATS slides of 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road record and 1-4 as a chalk of less than five points.
For the Mavericks, the over has been the play lately, including 10-4 overall, 7-1 after a day off, 6-1 against Western Conference teams and 14-6 against teams with a winning record. Portland has topped the total in five of seven against Western Conference foes and six of seven against Southwest Division teams, but it is on “under” runs of 5-1 at home, 14-5 against teams with a winning record and 27-11-1 after getting three or more days off.
Finally, the under has cashed in 14 of the last 20 Blazers-Mavericks meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
NBA RoundUp For 3/25
By Dan Bebe
Heat @ Bulls - Chicago by 1 with a total of 189.5. First thing that jumps out at me is that this game is actually pretty huge. A win by the Bulls could pull them back into the East's true playoff picture, especially with Toronto currently getting whipped by the Jazz. Obviously, long way to go in that game, but as I write this, the Bulls are far from eliminated, and they seem to have gotten some of their tenacity back. Joakim Noah is back, but not fully there, but the key note is that Derrick Rose is playing like a man possessed. Each team has won their home games in this series so far, and I'm not seeing anything to make me think that's going to change. We know who is going to play on the Chicago side, Jermaine O'Neal is questionable for Miami, and it's going to have to be an awful lot from Dwyane Wade if the Heat are going to win this game. Interestingly, the Heat hosted the Bulls 2 weeks ago, when Chicago was spiraling and playing without most of their key pieces. The Bulls weren't defending, they were trying to get out on the break and win games with easy buckets, and it wasn't working. Now, they're back to defending, and this is a game of two teams that both play a particularly swarming style of defense, and I don't think it's any coincidence that the total of the meeting 2 weeks ago was set at 191.5, went over by 12 points, and now this one opens up 2 points lower. I think Chicago plays outstanding defense, making life miserable for the Heat, and I think the first team to 90 wins. Leans to Bulls and Under.
Clippers @ Rockets - Houston by 6.5 with a total of 208. Here's a completely uninteresting game - a Clippers team that mailed it in about 3 weeks ago, and a Houston team that might be about ready to call it a season, as well. When you have a game with BOTH teams uninterested, you're left between the old rock and hard place. Do you put yourself on the line and try to pick a side? I would say that the wise man would absolutely not. In fact, I know it's just a 3-game card, and skipping a game would seem like heresy, but I'm not even going to break the side down on this game. That's how badly I want you guys to avoid it. The total, however, is interesting, if only because we have two teams that don't give a crap. Do they just run layup drills all night, or completely lack focus, miss their cuts, clank jumpers and so on and so forth. Well, the Clippers have been giving up well over 100 points in almost every game over the last month, holding only the Bucks under 100 in March. Houston loves to play an up-tempo game, and though they've been having some issues scoring, I think coming home, some of the youngsters are going to want to show up and make some noise down the stretch. I think we might actually have some value on the Over here, since the line looks pretty damn high, and I think people might be scared off by each team's recent offensive struggles. Well, NBA players are good, and they can score against a team not playing any defense. Yes, even the Clippers.
Mavericks @ Blazers - Portland by 3 with a total of 192. Here are those damn dirty Mavs, looking pretty awful, at times, at home, then showing flashes of brilliance on the road...or are they? The Mavs' last road game was in New Orleans, and they completely pooped out after a decent 1st quarter. So, how much will the hostile environment known as the Rose Garden take its toll on Dallas? I'm interested to see how the Mavericks respond, considering the Blazers beat them twice, both times in Dallas, earlier this year. Is this a situation where the Blazers just match up extremely well with Dallas? That's possible, since Portland has the wing defenders that give Dirk more trouble than almost anyone else. It's funny, really, when you take a peek at those match-ups -- Dirk handles slow big men by toasting them, and can shoot over the littler, quick guys, but someone like a Batum is just the type of long, agile defender that can force Dirk into tough shots, and defend him off the dribble. Plus, Andre Miller can match Jason Kidd's strength, and Brandon Roy should be able to do whatever he wants with whoever Dallas puts on him. Dallas has not been particularly strong avenging home losses, so I don't know if we can use that stat, but at the same time, we've seen how Dallas actually seems to be a stronger team on the road. The fact that they're getting 3 points here is a testament to how much the Blazers have jumped in the power rankings, and they're equals to the Mavs now. Very intriguing. This isn't a particularly good or bad situational spot for either team, though the Mavs are probably the "value". Still, I don't trust 'em, home or road, right now, and I lean Blazers in front of the frenetic home crowd, and I have this weird gut feeling that we see some hot shooting. I think this total is close to accurate, but I have a slight lean to the Over.
NBA TNT Doubleheader: Betting Preview and Odds
By SCOTT COOLEY
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (-1, 189.5)
The Heat is on
Miami (37-34, 35-35-1 ATS) is fighting for the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference with the Charlotte Bobcats, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls nipping at its heels.
Needless to say, the playoff push is in full force. And the Heat are acting accordingly. They’ve won two straight games, five of their last seven and eight of their past 11.|
“It's a very important time for us,” Jermaine O'Neal told the Miami Herald following a 99-89 victory at New Jersey on Monday night. “Everyone on this team has a responsibility to this team.”
Head coach Erik Spoelstra added that the Heat “have way too much at stake” to fool around with the lowly Nets, and they certainly can’t do so with a Chicago team that is playing with a sense of desperation.
Noah’s Arc
Chicago (33-37, 35-33-2 ATS) won two games in a row between Feb. 24 and 26 before center Joakim Noah went down with a foot injury. Noah missed 10 games and the Bulls promptly lost all 10.
Noah returned for the past two games and—what do you know?—Chicago got back on the winning track with a pair of victories (98-84 at Philadelphia on Saturday and 98-88 at home against Houston two days later).
While Noah (10. 5 ppg, 11.1 rpg) is not putting up massive numbers, the trend is more than just a coincidence. Noah defense and presence in the paint are winning factors Chicago sorely misses when he’s not in the lineup.
The Bulls allowed more than 100 points in six of the last seven games Noah missed, but they have held two straight opponents to less than 90 with their big man in the lineup.
“Jo being out there gives us more length and energy and gives Brad (Miller) a few less minutes so he can be more productive,” head coach Vinny Del Negro told the Chicago Tribune.
Prior engagements
The Heat and Bulls have faced each other three times this season, with the home team both winning and covering the spread each time. Miami took care of its home games 95-87 on Nov. 1 and 108-95 on March 12.
Chicago prevailed at home 95-91 on Feb. 6. In the most recent encounter, the Bulls were without Noah and Derrick Rose and the Heat missed Michael Beasley. Miami had three players score more than 20 points (O’Neal, Dwyane Wade, and Quentin Richardson).
Trending topics
Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with losing SU records.
Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with winning SU records and 5-0 ATS in its last five overall.
With remarkably similar over/under records, both the Heat (30-39-2 O/U) and the Bulls (30-39-1 O/U) have been solid under plays this season. The under is 7-1-2 in Miami’s last 10 road games and 4-1 in Chicago’s last five overall.
Head-to-head, the Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Chicago. The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the two teams.
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers (-3, 192)
All about chemistry
During the Mavericks’ 13-game winning streak that ended March 10, Erik Dampier, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, and Jason Terry all missed games. While all four have returned, the chemistry has not.
After two straight losses on Saturday (102-93 at home to Boston) and Monday (115-99 at New Orleans), Terry told the Dallas Morning News, “Our rhythm may have been thrown off a slight bit by me coming back, but that's no excuse. We need to get back going here. Two games is plenty. We've got to get back in rhythm and get another streak going.”
Dallas (47-24, 29-41-1 ATS) might have done that on Tuesday night with a 106-96 home win over the Clippers – a game the Mavs won and covered even though Dirk Nowitzki only played 19 minutes because of an ejection.
Zoned out
Portland (42-29, 37-32-2 ATS) is sure to see a lot of zone defense from Dallas because the team shot the ball dismally over the past two games.
The Blazers made just 32.1 percent of their field-goal attempts in a 76-74 win over Washington on Friday night and that improved to only 36.4 percent in a 93-87 loss at Phoenix on Sunday.
“The more teams see us struggle with it, the more they will use it,” Andre Miller said of the zone.
“It's two games,” added Brandon Roy. “I haven't shot it well. I'm not really going to overthink it. I just have to play better Thursday against Dallas.”
Prior engagements
The Trail Blazers are a perfect 2-0 against the Mavericks this season even though both games were at Dallas. As a 5.5-point underdog on Dec. 22, Portland prevailed 85-81 despite playing without Rudy Fernandez.
The Trail Blazers were 8.5-point underdogs in the more recent encounter, but they pulled out a 114-112 overtime victory. Although the Mavericks dished out 23 assists to Portland’s nine, Andre Miller erupted for 52 points and the visitors committed just nine turnovers.
Trending topics
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, but 1-5 ATS in its last six overall.
Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games against teams with winning road records.
Both the Mavericks (39-32 O/U) and the Trail Blazers (38-33) have been decent over plays this season. The over is 10-4 in Dallas’ last 14 games overall, but the under is 5-1 in Portland’s last six home dates.
Head-to-head, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six encounters.
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
Most of the focus at the betting counter will be geared towards the college game but gamblers do have a few options in the NBA, including TNT’s primetime double-header. Both of the battles are conference clashes and they could have an impact on the upcoming playoffs.
Let’s check break ‘em down!
Miami (37-34 SU, 35-35 ATS) at Chicago (33-37 SU, 35-33 ATS)
Isn’t it amazing how a team can lose 10 straight games late in the season, yet still have a chance to make the playoffs? That’s the case with Chicago, who trails Toronto by two games for the final spot in the Eastern Conference and is just 3 ½-games behind tonight’s opponent, Miami, for the sixth position.
The Bulls snapped their 10-game skid last Saturday with a 98-84 win at Philadelphia and followed up that performance with a 98-88 home win over Houston on Monday. Gamblers chasing with Chicago have watched them cover five straight contests. Point guard Derrick Rose (wrist) is close to 100 percent and center Joakim Noah (foot) played limited minutes in the victories over the 76ers and Rockets.
Looking at the schedule closer, the Bulls have a good chance to make a run with seven of their final 12 games coming at the United Center. And of the five road games, three are against the Pistons, Wizards and Nets, which are all must-win spots.
First, Chicago needs to win at home against Miami. Fortunately for the Bulls, this series has been all about the home team. The host has won eight of the previous nine meetings, including all three encounters this season. This game is just as important for Miami, who has won two of three in the season series - both from South Beach – which mean’s tonight’s finale against Chicago could also give them the head-to-head tiebreaker if it warranted.
Chicago opened as a short one-point favorite over Miami, who owns an inconsistent 16-18 SU and 18-16 ATS mark on the road this year. The Heat are coming off a 99-89 road win over New Jersey on Monday but they were benefited with a six-game homestand prior to this short road trip. After tonight, the club heads to Milwaukee for a game on zero days rest.
The total is sitting at 191 and two of the three games this season have gone ‘under’ the number. The one ‘over’ ticket occurred two weeks ago (Mar. 12) in Miami when the Bulls didn’t have Rose or Noah in the lineup.
The fourth and final installment between the Bulls and Heat starts at 8:05 p.m. EDT, with TNT offering up coverage.
Dallas (47-24 SU, 29-41 ATS) at Portland (42-29 SU, 38-31 ATS)
The Mavericks were starting to make a push for the top spot in the Western Conference playoff race after ripping off 13 straight victories (7-5-1 ATS). All good things have to come to an end eventually and they have for Dallas. Since the hot run, the team has gone 2-3 SU and 0-4-1 ATS. During this lapse, the defense has given up 128, 102 and 115 in the losses.
Dallas will try to get back on track tonight when it heads to Portland, but that’s easier said than done. The Trail Blazers have already defeated the Mavericks twice this season and both wins came in Texas. In the last meeting on Jan. 30, Portland stopped Dallas 114-102 in overtime as an 8 ½-point underdog. What’s even more impressive is that Brandon Roy didn’t play for the Blazers either.
Tonight, Portland will be healthy and it’s also playing great basketball. The club is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 and the two losses weren’t surprising, at Denver (106-118) and at Phoenix (87-93).
This contest could be a playoff preview, since the Mavs currently sit in the second spot and Portland holds a 4 ½-game lead over Memphis for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. However, the club is just a half game out of the seventh spot and has a legit chance to move up to the fifth seed, since Phoenix is just three games ahead of the Blazers.
With the majority of teams only having 11 games left in the regular season, the Mavs are looking at their upcoming slate very seriously. "We haven't beat them all year so this is a big game for us," Mavs guard Jason Terry said. "And then looking at Golden State and then Denver - so a big three-game stretch for us and we want to win them all."
Looking at the situation from an emotion standpoint, gamblers could look at the Warriors as home ‘dogs on Saturday against Dallas, who could be spent from Thursday’s battle and then possibly looking ahead to Denver on Monday.
The Mavericks and Trail Blazers meet one more time from Rose Garden on Apr. 9, which will be the first of a three-game road trip for Rick Carlisle’s team.
Including this game, Portland only plays five of its lat 11 at home. This season, the Blazers have gone 23-13 SU and 16-19 ATS. They have won four straight (2-2 ATS) entering tonight’s contests but they face a Dallas team that has gone 22-13 SU and 21-14 ATS on the road this season.
The Trail Blazers have been installed as three-point favorites in tonight’s matchup, while the total is hovering between 192 and 193 points.
TNT will provide national coverage of this game, which is slated for 10:35 p.m. EDT.
vegasinsider.com
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Heat at Bulls – The Heat are 9-0 ATS (5.3 ppg) since January 28, 2004 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since February 09, 2006 with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since March 27, 2006 with two or more days of rest after a win in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since December 06, 2006 at home with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since February 22, 2006 at home with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
Clippers at Rockets – The Clippers are 0-8 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since January 13, 2010 when facing a team they lost to on the road in their previous same-season match-up. The Rockets are 9-0-1 ATS (6.2 ppg) since February 11, 2008 at home and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since January 28, 2009 when playing the first game of at least a three game home stand.
Mavericks at Trailblazers – The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since April 13, 2006 when seeking revenge for a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field. The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since October 30, 2009 on the road after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since January 27, 2007 before playing the Hornets. The Trailblazers are 9-0-1 ATS (9.5 ppg) since March 11, 2008 and when facing a team they beat in their first two match-ups of the season. The Trailblazers are 0-7 ATS (-4.8 ppg) since April 19, 1998 at home with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.