NBA News and Notes Thursday 3/4

Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David

College basketball usually rules the hardwood in March but Thursday’s TNT double-header in the NBA continues to offer up some intriguing matchups. This week’s pair starts with a quality non-conference battle between the Lakers and Heat from American Airlines Arena in South Florida. The nightcap takes place from the desert when the Jazz visit the Suns in a potential first round playoff matchup. Also on the card tonight is a contest between the Grizzlies and Bulls from “The Windy City.”

L.A. Lakers (46-15 SU, 27-31 ATS) at Miami (30-31 SU, 29-32 ATS)

Los Angeles was fortunate begin its season with 17 of its first 21 games played at Staples Center and not surprisingly, the team produced an 18-3 record over this span. The hot start helped the Lakers build a nice lead in the Western Conference, which now stands as a six-game cushion over Dallas. While the top seed in the West seems very likely for L.A., Phil Jackson’s team is just one game behind Cleveland for the best record in the league but a daunting finish could have the Purple and Gold come up short. The defending champions have 21 games left on their schedule and 14 of them will be on the road.

On Thursday, the Lakers will embark on their final road trip to the East Coast as they play three games in four nights. The first matchup happens in South Beach, where Miami will be looking to avenge a 108-107 road loss to Los Angeles on Dec. 4, when the Lakers’ Kobe Bryant drilled a game-winning 3-pointer off the glass as time expired. Including this triumph, Los Angeles has won six of the last eight against the Heat but the two losses did come at Miami.

Miami closed the first-half of the season strong and it came out of the break strong as well, winning five straight (4-1 ATS), four coming by double digits. Unfortunately, All-Star Dwyane Wade (calf) was hurt during the win streak and he missed four games, which saw Miami go 1-3 both SU and ATS. Even though Wade returned Sunday, the club still came up short in a loss at Orlando (80-96). The Heat snapped their four-game slid on Tuesday after stopping Golden State (110-106) at home.

Miami failed to cover as a 10-1/2 point favorite against the short-handed Warriors, which was its third straight non-cover at home. On the season, the Heat has gone 15-14 SU and 12-17 ATS at home. As a home ‘dog, the club has gone 2-2 both SU and ATS.

The Heat’s win over Golden State watched the combined 216 points jump ‘over’ the closing number of 200. Prior to that game, the ‘under’ was on a 9-1 run in the last 10. L.A. was on a solid ‘under’ streak (8-1) as well before the team saw the ‘over’ cash in its 122-99 victory against Indiana on Tuesday.

Utah (38-22 SU, 37-21 ATS) at Phoenix (38-24 SU, 35-26 ATS)

If the playoffs started today, the Jazz and Suns would be squaring off in the first round. The two will meet tonight for the second time this season, with tonight’s venue taking place from US Airways Center. Utah rallied past Phoenix 124-115 on Jan. 25 from Salt Lake City as a seven-point favorite and the combined 239 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 221 ½. The home victory by the Jazz was the fifth straight for the host in this head-to-head series.

When breaking down this game, most gamblers look at the point guard matchup between Steve Nash and Deron Williams. In the January encounter, Nash had 15 points and 15 assists, while Williams dropped in 18 points and 11 assists, which most would consider a push. The key to Utah’s win was its advantage on the glass (48-31), plus it’s fair to say that Phoenix was fortunate to stay in the game with a 17-of-30 (57%) performance from 3-point land. Will the trends continue in the desert?

If you’ve followed Phoenix lately, then you’re away of how hot the team has been. The Suns have quietly gone 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS in their last 15, which includes a 6-1 SU and ATS mark at home. Alvin Gentry’s troops will be playing on zero days rest tonight after facing the Clippers in L.A. on Wednesday. The club has struggled to a 6-9 record both SU and ATS on no rest this season. However, only five of those 15 instances were played at home and the Suns have gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in that span.

Overall, Phoenix has gone 23-7 SU at home but its only 13-16-1 ATS. It’s well known that Utah has always played better at home, yet Jerry Sloan’s team has managed to go 14-14 SU and 16-11 ATS outside of Salt Lake this season and they just saw a hot road streak come to a close. Utah had ripped off seven straight wins and covers away from home, but they suffered bad road losses to the Kings (99-103) last Friday and Clippers (104-108) recently on Monday.

Including the first battle this season, the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Suns. Phoenix has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 in its last five after watching eight straight go ‘under’ the number. Utah enters this game with five straight ‘over’ tickets.

Bullies at Home

The other game on the card tonight has Chicago (31-29 SU, 30-28 ATS) welcoming Memphis (30-30 SU, 32-27 ATS) to the United Center. Vinny Del Negro’s team has been a solid wager on their homecourt this season (19-10 SU, 15-12 ATS). Even though the Bulls lost to the Hawks (92-116) at home on Monday, the club has gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in their last 11 from the Windy City.

The Grizzlies could be a little fatigued for this matchup after playing at New Orleans on Wednesday. Memphis was once an automatic fade in the backend of two-game sets this year, but things have changed lately. After going 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS in its first 12 encounters on zero days rest, Memphis has quietly ripped off three straight wins, all coming on the road too.

Sticking with the road talk, the Grizzlies’ offense (104 PPG) has been better away from FedEx Forum this season. Unfortunately the defense (107 PPG) has gotten worse, which has produced a 19-9 ‘over’ record.

Memphis has gone 13-9 against the Eastern Conference this season, while Chicago has produced a 12-11 ledger versus the West. Tonight’s battle will be the first meeting between the pair this season.

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L.A. Lakers (46-15, 26-32-3 ATS) at Miami (30-31, 29-32 ATS)

The Lakers open a three-game East Coast trip with a stop inside the American Airlines Arena for a matchup against the Heat.

Los Angeles has won three straight (1-1-1 ATS) overall, including Tuesday’s 122-99 rout of Indiana, cashing as an 11½-point home chalk. The Lakers got 24 points and six assists from Kobe Bryant, while Pau Gasol added 14 points and pulled down 16 boards. The Lakers are 17-10 on the highway this season, but only 11-15-1 ATS away from home. They snapped an 0-5-1 ATS slump with Tuesday’s blowout of the Pacers.

A 110-106 home win over Golden State on Tuesday snapped Miami’s four-game losing streak, but it came up well short as a 10½-point favorite, dropping to 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Dwyane Wade poured in 35 points and dished out 12 assists to lead the way as the Heat erupted offensively after averaging just 82.3 ppg in their previous four contests.

The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series, including the Lakers’ last-second 108-107 victory on Dec. 4, falling well short as a 12½-point home favorite. Miami has cashed in five of the last seven – including the last three in a row – all as an underdog.

Los Angeles is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 Thursday games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine against a team with a losing record, but it is on ATS slides of 1-5-1 overall, 1-4-1 as a favorite, 1-3-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 1-5-1 as a road chalk of less than five points. The Heat have cashed in four of five as an underdog and 10 of 14 against Pacific Division teams, but they are on ATS skids of 1-5 at home, 1-5 on Thursday and 9-23 at home against teams with a winning road record.

The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 on the road, 7-1 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 21-7 on Thursday and 20-8-1 after a spread-cover. Miami has also been on several “under” streaks, including 25-10-1 overall, 19-7-1 on Thursday, 7-1 at home, 42-20 after a straight-up win and 5-1-1 as an underdog. In this series, the “under” has been the play in seven of the last 10 meetings overall and five straight in South Beach.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Utah (38-22, 36-21-3 ATS) at Phoenix (39-24, 37-26 ATS)

The red-hot Suns look for their seventh win in their last eight games when they welcome the Jazz to the US Airways Center for a key Western Conference matchup.

Utah has alternated wins and losses in its last six (3-3 ATS), including a 108-104 loss to the Clippers in Los Angeles on Monday, failing as a 6½-point favorite. The Jazz were outrebounded by Los Angeles and shot just 38-for-89 from the field for 42.7 percent. They have now dropped two straight on the highway after rattling off seven consecutive road wins (SU and ATS).

The Suns scored a 127-101 victory over the Clippers in Los Angeles on Wednesday, easily cashing as a 4½-point favorite. Amare Stoudemire led the way for Phoenix with 30 points and 14 rebounds as his team cashed for the eighth straight game, and sixth straight as a favorite. The Suns have won five straight in front of the home fans, cashing in each contest.

The home team has won five straight in this rivalry, with Utah scoring a 124-115 win in Salt Lake City back on Jan. 25, cashing as a seven-point favorite. The Jazz have cashed in six of the last eight series clashes and is the last road team to score a win in this matchup, winning 126-118 back in March 2008 as a 5½-point pup. In fact, Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to the Arizona desert.

Utah is on several positive ATS streaks, including 34-15-3 overall, 10-2-1 on the road, 14-4-2 against Western Conference teams, 9-1-1 on Thursdays and 5-0-1 as an underdog. Phoenix is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 Thursday contests, but otherwise is on several positive pointspread runs, including 14-3 overall, 5-0 at home, 6-0 against Western Conference teams, 6-0 as a favorite and 8-1 against teams with a winning percentage higher than .600.

The Jazz have topped the total in five straight overall, 28 of 41 as a road ‘dog, 34 of 51 as an underdog regardless of venue and five of six against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Suns are on several “under” runs, including 10-4 overall, 6-2 as a favorite, 4-0 on the second night of a back-to-back and 5-1 at home. In this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER

NBA RoundUp For 3/4
By Dan Bebe

Grizzlies @ Bulls - This line is OFF. This line is presumably off because of Luol Deng, who is supposedly "probable" for this one. This is going to be an awfully tough spot for the Grizzlies, though Memphis just seems to have all systems chugging along when they're on the road. The Grizz picked up an improbable victory last night in New Orleans despite trailing by 7 points very late. Some hustle, some ball, and a Zach Randolph BANK-three got them back in the game, and Memphis took the lead late on a layup -- way too easy if you're the Hornets. Of course, all that energy expended last night is going to have to get recovered somewhere, and when you're not getting any sleep, it's awfully tough to catch up on Z's. Still, I'm not sure I can advocate going against the Grizzlies JUST based on fatigue, since they've actually won their last 3 back-to-backs to improve to 7-8 ATS in those spots. It's funny, too. Memphis was one of the worst in the League on back-to-back games before this 3-game back-to-back winning streak, going just 1-11 SU and just 4-8 ATS. So, what changed? Well, interestingly, Memphis LOST the first game of all 3 of those back-to-backs, so it was almost like they were annoyed by the failure the previous night. Memphis is suddenly all over the map, winning consistently on the road and tanking at home. These teams haven't played this year, so there isn't any previous meeting to go off, which makes this game all that much more difficult to predict. What we do have is a Bulls team coming off a tired, lackluster, INJURED effort against the Hawks, and the Grizzlies coming off an emotional divisional road win. I can't help but think Memphis might suffer a slight letdown, but can Chicago get the juices flowing and keep one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA off the glass? They certainly couldn't stop the Hawks. I am inclined to think the Bulls are in a nice spot to appear weak and fragile, while the Grizzlies look like they're dominating, but this line is going to do a lot to convince me one way or the other. I lean Bulls without knowing the status of Deng, but if any more bodies are missing for the Bulls, I would just take a pass. On the total, the Bulls have been playing terrible defense, and the lack of rebounding has a fair amount to do with it. The Grizzlies give up a lot of points on back-to-backs, and I can't help but lean a little bit to the Over.

Lakers @ Heat - Los Angeles by 4 with a total of 187.5. I actually believe that the fact that the Lakers WEREN'T looking ahead to this game in their Tuesday throttling of the Pacers is a good sign for the Heat. Miami may have been looking ahead, as they barely squeezed past the Warriors on that very same night, and the combination of those two factors makes me think the Heat have been gearing up for this early TNT match with the defending champs. The Heat are just 12-17 ATS at home this year, so that won't inspire your confidence, but they're 17-15 ATS as an underdog, and a solid 21-15 ATS against high-scoring opponents. But really, these ATS trends don't mean much. We can't really interpret how the Heat play against high-scoring foes, if only because they tend to play a slower style of game, and have a knack for keeping games close when they look like they might get socked upside the head. The more important note on this game comes from the land of revenge. As you may recall, the Heat paid a visit to Southern California way back on December 4th, and appeared to have that game won when Kobe pulled a Kobe and banked in a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to spoil Dwyade Wade's day and deal the Heat a loss they never should have had to suffer. I don't know what it is about this matchup, but the Heat play the Lakers TOUGH, as tough as any team in the NBA. They have covered 3 straight, but the real key is that all 3 of those games have been decided by a combined 6 points. Honestly, if Miami makes a few free throws in LA back in December, they win that game going away! I know this line looks extremely low, and the Lakers must appear to be an extremely sexy play, but I would offer a word or two of caution. One of my favorite ways to see how far a line is away from the true power ranking is to look at games against common opponents. Both of these teams played the Dallas Mavericks recently, so let's peer at those games. First, the Heat -- Miami played at Dallas on February 20th WITHOUT Wade, and was getting 10.5 points. We can logically assume that line would have been right around 7.5 if Wade was playing, maybe as low as 7 since there are very few guys that can move the line as much as Wade. Both teams were playing a back-to-back, so we can disregard that factor. Thus, Dallas would be ranked as a 4.5 point favorite on a neutral court. The Lakers played in Dallas 4 days later, themselves on a back-to-back, and were a 2-point underdog. Without the back-to-back, it's safe to assume this game would have been close to a pick. Okay, so the Lakers are 7 points better on a neutral court, which matches up with this TNT game. But WAIT, the Heat covered against the Mavs, and the Lakers didn't, which inherently means those lines were wrong! We can see right there that while it's never perfectly transitive, the Heat should have been less than a 10.5-point underdog, and the Lakers should have been more than 2. We can see right there that this line, Heat getting 4, is value on Miami. I lean to Wade and company. This total is just insanely low, which makes me think we have to at least look at the Under, since books wouldn't put a Lakers line in the 180's unless they absolutely had to. The Lakers have only had one total all season long in the 180's, and it went Under. I think they may be due for a follow-up.

Jazz @ Suns - Phoenix by 1 with a total of 213. This game has the potential to be all kinds of enjoyable. From a betting standpoint, it may somewhat tough, but let's see what we can find. The Jazz are coming off an outright loss to the Clippers in LA in a game where it just didn't look like Utah wanted to be there. I'm not sure if the Jazz are slipping a little, since they've lost back-to-back road games in Sacramento and in SoCal. In fact, they've lost 3 of 5, though the third loss was a home game against the Hawks where Utah was coming off a very, very late game on the West coast and had to fly back into the altitude. The problem certainly hasn't been offense. The Jazz have broken 100 in 4 of those 5 games, but they're not stopping anyone. They have allowed over 100 in 4 of 5 games, as well; that, coming after a stretch where they held 6 straight teams under 100 points, and won 5 of those 6 games straight up. This is only the second meeting this year between these two teams, and Utah won the only meeting, in Utah, 124-115, soaring over the posted total of 221.5. First, that makes this a revenge spot for Phoenix. Second, this total is 8 points lower than that one despite a combined scoring mark of 239 points. I don't think this game is as cut-and-dry as "play the under", since the first meeting was almost 2 months ago, but I do think it says a great deal about the Suns newfound commitment on the defensive end that a Jazz/Suns game would have the lowest posted total since December of 2008. Utah also happens to be on a run of 5 straight Overs, and with every one, the impending run of Unders gets closer and closer. On the Phoenix side, the Suns are coming off beating the living snot out of the Clippers, yet again. When you talk about a team that just OWNS another club, that is the case with Phoenix. The Suns shot over 50% from long range last night, and scored over 30 points in 3 of the 4 quarters. The odds of Phoenix duplicating that sort of performance on a back-to-back is a little on the low side. Phoenix is 6-9 ATS on back-to-back games, and actually 7-8 O/U, so they do have a tendency to slow down and get out of their normal rhythm. I realize the Suns are on revenge, and they're playing inspired ball, but every other angle points to the Jazz to bounce back off that ugly game in LA. I lean Utah. On the total, it's Under or nothing -- there's no value left in the over, not with Phoenix coming off this crazy game with the Clippers, and the Jazz on their run of overs. I'm not saying the Under is the play, but the value on the over is gone. Lean to the Under.

Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer

Grizzlies at Bulls – The Grizzlies are 12-0-1 ATS (11.7 ppg) since November 05, 1995 as a dog after a road win in which they had at least 12 steals. The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since March 06, 2006 when playing the second of back-to-back road games after winning the first. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since November 13, 2004 with two or more days of rest after a home loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since April 11, 2006 at home after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

Lakers at Heat – The Lakers are 6-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since January 14, 2009 on the road after a game in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. The Heat are 10-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since February 02, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Heat are 7-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since December 25, 2006 after playing the Warriors.

Jazz at Suns – The Jazz are 10-0-1 ATS (10.0 ppg) since April 08, 2008 when they scored at least 25 fewer points in their previous game than in the game before. The Jazz are 0-7 ATS (-12.5 ppg) since April 04, 2000 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game on the road in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Suns are 10-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since January 18, 2008 after a road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Suns are 5-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since March 18, 2009 when playing the first game of at least a three game home stand. The Suns are 0-4 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since January 19, 2009 when playing their fourth game in five days.

Tips and Trends

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat

Lakers (-4, O/U 187.5): Los Angeles has won 3 consecutive games SU since their loss to the Mavericks. All 3 games came at home, with 2 of them as double digit favorites. Los Angeles continues to be dominant in the West, as they have a commanding 6 game lead in the Western Conference playoff chase. The Lakers are 46-15 SU this season, trailing only Cleveland for the best SU record in the NBA. The Lakers are 17-10 SU and 11-15-1 ATS in road games this season. The Lakers are 18-17-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Lakers only have 1 ATS win in their past 7 contests heading into tonight. Los Angeles has struggled to score of late, as they've been dealing with injuries across their lineup. G Kobe Bryant is included in those injury woes, as he's been held to 20 PTS or fewer in 3 of his 5 games since he came back from injury. Bryant still averages 27.4 PPG this season, 4th most in the NBA. The Lakers have been held under 100 PTS in 5 of their past 6 games. Defensively, Los Angeles has held 9 of their past 10 opponents under 100 PTS.

Lakers are 7-2 ATS last 9 games vs. a team with a losing SU record.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - G Shannon Brown (thumb) is probable.
G Sasha Vujacic (shoulder) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 92 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Heat: Fans of this game will certainly be thinking about Kobe vs. Wade. Both Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant are amongst the 5 biggest names in the NBA. When these two get together, typically a very competitive game is in order. The past 3 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a total of 6 points. Miami has lost 4 of their past 5 games SU, with their lone win coming against Golden State as a double digit favorite. This losing streak has put the Heat below .500 for the season, 30-31 SU. Despite their losing record, the Heat would be the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference if the playoffs started today. Miami is 15-14 SU and 12-17 ATS in home games this season. The Heat are 17-15 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 3-3 ATS as the listed home underdog. 3 different Heat players average double figures in PTS this season, led by Wade. Wade averages a team high 26.2 PPG and 6.5 APG this year. Wade is currently 5th in the NBA in scoring..

Heat is 1-5 ATS last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % greater than .600.
Under is 7-1 last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 88

Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns

Jazz: Utah has cooled off a bit, as they've lost 3 of their past 5 games SU. All 3 of those SU losses came as the listed favorite. Despite their minor slip up the Jazz are still 38-22 SU on the season. Utah currently sits in 4th place in the Western Conference playoff standings entering today. The biggest reason for their SU losses recently is their defense. The Jazz have allowed 4 of their past 5 opponents to score at least 103 PTS. Utah is merely a .500 team on the road, as they are 14-14 SU this season. Luckily they have been a profitable 16-11-1 ATS in this same road scenario this season. The Jazz are 11-6 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Utah won both SU and ATS against Phoenix earlier this year at home. 5 different Jazz players average double digits for a team that scores the 7th most PTS in the NBA. F Carlos Boozer averages a team high 19.6 PPG and 11.1 RPG this season. Boozer was recently named the Western Conference player of the Month for February. PG Deron Williams averages 18.4 PPG and a team high 10.2 APG this season for the Jazz.

Jazz is 8-0-1 ATS last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % greater than .600.
Over is 5-0 last 5 overall.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 103

Suns (-1, O/U 213): Phoenix continues to win game after game, as they've won 6 of their past 7 games SU entering tonight. Phoenix continues to score PTS in waves, as they've scored more than 100 PTS in 6 of those 7 games mentioned. All 7 of those games listed ended with an ATS win for the Suns. Phoenix is 38-24 SU this season, placing them 5th in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Suns are 23-7 SU and 17-12-1 ATS in home games this season. The Suns are 12-9 ATS as a single digit home favorite this season. Digging deeper, Phoenix is 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 PTS or fewer this season. The Suns are an impressive 11-2 ATS since the the offical start of the second half of the season. Phoenix leads the entire NBA in scoring, as they average more than 109 PPG as a team this season. F Amar'e Stoudemire leads 6 different Suns players that average double digits in PTS this season. Stoudemire averages a team high 21.7 PPG and 8.7 RPG this season. PG Steve Nash is averaging 17.3 PPG and an NBA high 11.2 APG this season for the Suns.

Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - G Leandro Barbosa (wrist) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 114 (SIDE of the Day)