Thursday's NBA Tip Sheet
By Brad Young
**Mavericks at Hornets**
-There is no overnight line or total on this contest due to a couple of key injuries. TNT will begin its coverage of this Southwest Division matchup at 8:05 p.m. ET.
-Dallas forward Josh Howard (ankle) is ‘probable’ versus the Hornets, while New Orleans forward Peja Stojakovic (back) is ‘questionable’ against the Mavericks.
-Dallas (36-24 straight up, 28-32 against the spread) has gone 3-1 SU its last four games heading into Wednesday’s matchup with San Antonio.
-The Mavericks sport a 14-16 SU and 16-14 ATS road record, with the ‘under’ going 19-11. Dallas has been dropping those affairs by an average score of 99-97. The Mavericks are in the midst of a schedule that has them alternating six home and away games.
-New Orleans (37-22 SU, 25-33 ATS) enters this matchup riding a five-game SU winning streak after upending Philadelphia Monday as a two-point road underdog, 98-91. The combined 189 points slithered below the 189 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-1 the past four outings. The Hornets had failed to cover five games in a row before beating the Sixers.
-New Orleans dominated Philadelphia on the boards, 50-39, while shooting 44 percent (35-of-80) from the field and 63 percent (10-of-16) from behind the arc. Power forward David West paced the offense with 30 points and 10 rebounds, while point guard Chris Paul added 16 and 12 assists.
-The Hornets are a robust 21-9 SU on their home court, but just 13-16 ATS. New Orleans has been winning those matchups by an average score of 96-91, helping the ‘under’ go 17-12. The Hornets conclude a brief two-game homestand Saturday against Oklahoma City.
-The Hornets are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the previous six meetings with Dallas after prevailing January 14 as a four-point road favorite, 104-97. The combined 201 points went ‘over’ the 189 ½-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘under’ outings in this series.
**Blazers at Nuggets**
-Las Vegas Sports Consultants installed Denver as a five-point home ‘chalk’ over Portland, with the total set at 201 ½. TNT starts its coverage of this Northwest Division affair at 10:35 p.m. ET.
-Portland (37-22 SU, 31-28 ATS) has put together back-to-back victories SU and ATS heading into Wednesday’s matchup with Indiana.
-The Blazers have struggled to a 13-17 SU and 12-18 ATS road record, dropping those games by an average score of 97-96. Portland has this lone road game sandwiched in between six home games.
-Denver (39-22 SU, 33-27 ATS) is currently mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing skid after Tuesday’s setback to Detroit as a three-point road underdog, 100-95. The combined 195 points went ‘over’ the 190-point closing total, ending consecutive ‘under’ outings.
-The Nuggets were outrebounded by the Pistons, 38-35, while shooting 45 percent (37-of-83) from the field and 41 percent (7-of-17) from 3-point land. Point guard Chauncey Billups led all scorers on his return to Detroit by netting 34 points in a losing effort, while Nene added 20 and seven rebounds.
-Denver maintains a 22-7 SU and 17-11 ATS home ledger, with the ‘over’ going 15-13. The Nuggets have been winning those contests by an average score of 105-100. Denver follows this matchup with a two-game road trip against Utah and Sacramento.
-The Nuggets had beaten Portland back-to-back games SU and three consecutive contests ATS before losing December 23 as an eight-point road underdog, 101-92. The combined 193 points failed to topple the 196 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to improve to 3-1 the last four games between these teams.
-Portland center Greg Oden (knee) is expected to be ‘out’ 7-10 days. Denver forward Carmelo Anthony (suspension served) is ‘probable’ versus the Blazers, while guard Jason Hart (acquired) is ‘questionable.’
vegasinsider.com
DALLAS (36 - 24) at NEW ORLEANS (37 - 22)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-7 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 7-7 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND (37 - 22) at DENVER (39 - 22)
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 55-41 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS vs. NEW ORLEANS
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Dallas is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
PORTLAND vs. DENVER
Portland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Portland is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing Denver
Denver is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Hornets
The Mavericks limited their opponents in the second half and got past the Spurs 107-102 on Wednesday. The Mavericks covered the 3-point spread, while the 209 points sailed OVER the posted total of 189.
Dirk Nowitzki had 24 points and 12 rebounds for a double-double, and Josh Howard netted a team-high 29 points with seven rebounds.
David West went for 30 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Hornets past the 76ers 98-91 on Monday night.
New Orleans cashed as 1.5-point road underdogs as the game played under the 189.5-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
New Orleans has won 5 straight games.
Team records:
Dallas: 37-24 SU, 29-32 ATS
New Orleans: 37-22 SU, 24-33-2 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Washington are 8-2
After playing San Antonio are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 7-3
Before playing Oklahoma City are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Next up:
Dallas home to Washington, Saturday, March 7
New Orleans home to Oklahoma City, Saturday, March 7
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
The Trail Blazers outscored the Pacers by 10 points to earn a hard-fought 107-105 victory on Wednesday. The Trail Blazers failed to cover the 10-point spread, while the 212 points made it OVER the posted total of 208.
Brandon Roy netted a game-high 28 points, and Lyle Aldridge added 21 points and seven rebounds.
Chauncey Billups dropped 34 points to lead Denver in its 100-95 loss to Detroit on Tuesday night.
Detroit covered as 3.5-point home favorites as the game played over the 189-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Portland has won 3 straight games.
Denver has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 38-22 SU, 31-29 ATS
Denver: 39-22 SU, 33-27-1 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Minnesota are 4-6
After playing Indiana are 3-7
After a win are 7-3
Denver most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Utah are 7-3
After playing Detroit are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Portland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Portland's last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Portland
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 12 games when playing at home against Portland
Next up:
Portland home to Minnesota, Saturday, March 7
Denver at Utah, Friday, March 6
Hot Teams
-- Dallas won four in row, eight of last eleven games. Hornets won their last five games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Blazers won three in row, eight of last eleven games.
Cold Teams
-- Nuggets lost five of their last seven games.
Totals
-- Last four Dallas games all went over the total.
-- Four of last five Portland games went over the total.
Back-to Back
-- Dallas is 1-3 if they won the night before.
-- Denver is 8-3-1 vs spread if they play again the next night.
What bettors need to know: NBA on TNT
By VICTOR RYAN
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Hornets (N/A)
Good News and Bad News
The surging Hornets boast five consecutive straight-up wins and are 7-2 overall since the All-Star break, but things haven’t been quite as rosy for their backers.
New Orleans (37-22 SU, 24-33-2 ATS) had lost five straight vs. the number in that span before covering as a 2-point underdog with a 98-91 win at Philadelphia Monday. The emerging Rasual Butler, reigning player of the week David West and Chris Paul all registered double-doubles to pace the Hornets.
Butler has become a consistent double-digit scoring threat and is rebounding from the two-guard position. The additional board work has given the Hornets a +10 average rebounding margin over the last five games.
“He just has a world of confidence and his teammates have a world of confidence in him,” Hornets coach Byron Scott told the local media. “When Peja (Stojakovic) and him are on, we are tough to beat. If one of them is on, we still have a great chance. We’re going to rely on both for the next six weeks or so to play at a very high level.”
Cuban Questions Effort
Frustrated bettors know NBA teams are prone to an occasional night off. Probably no team this year better exemplifies that concept than the Mavs (36-24 SU, 28-32 ATS). Take Sunday night at Oklahoma City. The Thunder and their .250 winning percentage had to play without their two top scorers (Kevin Durant and Jeff Green) yet still managed to cruise past the Mavs 96-87.
The Mavs have already lost six games this year by more than 20 points. That had happened just seven times combined in the previous three seasons.
Owner Mark Cuban and coach Rick Carlisle were among those livid after the Oklahoma City effort.
"It's only one game, which I keep reminding myself," Cuban told the local media. "But let's just say I wasn't happy with our preparation, execution or effort. Not only did it look like we had no idea what we were doing, but we did it without effort.”
Cuban went on to threaten every player on the roster with being released this offseason if their effort didn’t improve. Maybe that will light a fire under the players, but this is also the second game of a back-to-back on the road for the Mavs.
Head-to-Head
New Orleans has won three straight in this series, including a 104-97 win at Dallas as a 4.5-point favorite Jan 14.
Injuries
Josh Howard, the Mavs third-leading scorer with 18 points a game, was questionable for Wednesday’s home tilt with the San Antonio Spurs because of an ankle injury. The Hornets’ Peja Stojakovic was also listed as questionable Wednesday because of a strained back.
Trends
The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine head-to-head
The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games of the series
Dallas is 5-6 ATS on the second night of a back to back this season
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets (-5, 198.5)
Northwest Supremacy
These division rivals have been heading in opposite directions over the last two weeks and are now separated by less than two games in the Northwest standings.
Entering its game vs. Indiana Wednesday night, the Blazers (37-22 SU, 30-28 ATS) had won five of seven games SU and five of six ATS. By contrast, the Nuggets (39-22 SU, 32-28-1 ATS) have covered just once in their last seven games and are just 2-5 SU during that stretch.
Carmelo’s No-No
All-Star Carmelo Anthony is expected back in the Nugget’s lineup following a one-game suspension imposed by coach George Karl for insubordination. Anthony sat out the Nuggets 100-95 loss to the Pistons as 3-point road ‘dogs Tuesday because he refused to leave the floor for a substitute in their loss to Indiana last weekend.
Anthony is expected back in the lineup for tonight’s tilt.
“There’s a thin line between emotional mistakes and passion,” Karl told the Denver Post. “Melo wanted to win that game and the stress and the emotion went the wrong way.”
Anthony hasn't apologized for his actions but says he understands where his coach is coming from.
''He's got to do his job. He's got to coach. We've got to play. I mean, at all times during the 82-game season, everybody's not going to always agree, and that was just one of them times I didn't agree,'' Anthony said. ''I didn't want to come out of the game.''
Oden Still Out
The Blazers won’t have the services of 7-footer Greg Oden for at least another week. The former Buckeye continues to deal pain in his left knee.
Team trainers say Oden chipped his knee cap in a game against the Warriors on Feb. 12.
“His body is getting better, his knee is getting better, but the thing is he had a chipped bone and that thing has got to heal,” Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard told the Oregonian. “The big thing for us is we want him to get healthy and once he’s healthy, there won’t be any aggravation of (the knee).”
The fragile big man has missed the last seven games and 13 in total this season. Portland is 9-5 against the spread without him. The over is 9-3-1 with Oden watching in street clothes and 18-27 when he's in the Blazers' lineup.
Head-to-Head
These teams last met on back-to-back nights just before Christmas. Denver won as a 2.5-point home favorite 97-89 on Dec. 22 and Portland turned the tables as an 8-point home favorite the following night 101-92.
TNT Doubleheader Report
by Andre Gomes
Portland @ Denver
The Nuggets looked like a solid pick to win the Northwest division a couple of weeks ago as they were playing well, the Jazz were shorthanded and the Blazers were inconsistent. However, right now these three teams are fighting for the top and this game is very important for the Division. Carmelo Anthony didn't play last game in Detroit due to a team suspension and the Nuggets lost that game 95-100. The Nuggets are 2-5 L7 games and they need to start playing better, even though Billups is playing great lately the Nuggets need Carmelo to score plus 20 points every night to be competitive. Meanwhile the Blazers are rolling lately and part of it is because their solid record at home. They are 8-3 L11 games but 7 of those 8 wins were at the Rose Garden. They had a dogfight last night against the Pacers and this is a back to back game for them. Roy and Aldridge are playing great down the stretch and the Blazers need to prove they can be a tough road team on the road facing top teams.
Dallas @ New Orleans
The Mavericks bounced back from a pathetic loss suffered in Oklahoma City and showed a lot of passion last night against the Spurs. They won the game 107-102 with big games from Kidd, Nowitzki and Howard but the real question is what they will do on the road tonight? This is a special tough spot for them as this is a back to back game and facing 2 top teams in consecutive days is not easy for any team. It can be weird but the Mavs are 8-6 ATS as away underdogs in this season, so they don't look so bad, the problem is that they are 0-3 ATS L3 games in that situation. Meanwhile the Hornets are 5-0 L5 games but all of those wins were close wins. In none of those wins they won by double digits points, having Chris Paul and David West to capitalize down the stretch is a great advantage and the Hornets are taking care of it. Peja Stojakovic is questionable for this game and the Hornets owned the Mavs this past recent, they are 5-1 L6 games vs Dallas and the matchup between Chris Paul and Jason is actually a big mismatch in favor of CP3. This is a crucial game for Dallas as they want to prove they can be competitive on the road vs top teams.
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets Preview
by GoodFella
This is a huge game for both teams, as these are two of the teams scrambling for playoff positioning in the Western Conference, & New Orleans not only holds a 1 game lead over Dallas, they beat the Mavs AT Dallas 104-97 back on Jan. 14th. Dallas is coming off a HUGE WIN over San Antonio last night, as they responded in a big way, after being called out by Coach Carlisle & more importantly, being called out big time by team owner Mark Cuban, for their poor effort & energy their previous game they lost at Oklahoma City (who were w/out their 2 best players Durant & Green). Now they get to play in a tough back to back spot tonight, vs a Hornets team who hasn't played since their 7 pt win AT Philly on Monday. New Orleans is 5-0 SU, but just 1-4 ATS their L/5 games & New Orleans is 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS their L/6 home games. Dallas has played only 4 road games since Feb. 5th, & they are 0-4 SU & ATS in those 4 road games, losing at Ok City by 9 pts, & by 17 pts at San Antonio, & by 7 pts at Houston, & they got blasted by 28 pts at Utah. So the Mavs have not been playing well on the road, & now they get to face a team who is playing good ball now, & have their Big 3 (CP3, West, & Chandler) all back playing and healthy, & in a tough back to back spot, coming off a very emotional home win. The Mavs are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS their L/5 at New Orleans & this should be a very difficult spot for the Mavericks tonight, but maybe they will carry over the momentum into tonight, after the huge win over San Antonio last night.
Thursday Research
By Indiancowboy
Dallas vs. New Orleans
Howard is Probable for Dallas and Peja is questionable for the Hornets. New Orleans beat this team by 7 points on the road back on January 14th. So, Dallas does have revenge from that game and they will have Howard for this contest. I have to be honest, I'm surprised that the Mavs actually managed to beat the Spurs, home or not. Of course, having Jason Terry back certainly helped as he went for 17 points and Jason Kidd actually scoring some buckets helped too as he dropped 17 points. Hence, there is their scoring 4 - Howard, Dirk, Terry and Kidd. Of course, when Kidd stinks it up as he does usual or when Howard/Terry are banged up, it makes it nearly impossible for Dallas to be competitive. This is why Stackhouse was so huge as he gave them that added scoring fifth potential. New Orleans has won 5 straight and although the over is getting some love here, I wouldnt' be surprised to see Dallas competitive or this game go under.
Portland vs. Denver
Oden is OUT for Portland and Anthony is listed as probable for the Nuggets. Portland as a dog certainly seems nice, but the fact that Portland beat this team by nearly double-digits at home earlier this year gives Denver the revenge. Plus, Denver is probably miffed from their loss at Detroit so that makes them even more irritated coming into this game. Denver has lost back to back games and this is a team when miffed can show up from time to time as they did beat the Lakers at home by 11.