Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Thursday NBA card provides bettors with two nationally televised games that have major implications in the Western Conference playoff race. The Mavs try to stay hot at home against the equally hot Magic, while the Nuggets look to end their skid against the Blazers.
Magic (52-22 SU, 39-33-2 ATS) at Mavericks (49-25 SU, 31-42-1 ATS)
Orlando begins a two-game swing through Texas with revenge on its minds against Dallas. The Magic has been off since Sunday's 103-97 victory over the Nuggets, improving to 16-4 SU since the All-Star Break. The Mavs are also fresh off a win against Denver, just their second cover in the last eight at home.
It's been documented all season long that Dallas has struggled as a home favorite, going 4-26-1 ATS since November 20. But the Mavs have managed covers in each of their last two at American Airlines Center with wins over the Clippers and Nuggets. The 'under' has become profitable for Rick Carlisle's squad of late, hitting in four straight games.
The Magic has turned into road warriors since the break, winning six of eight away from Amway Arena. The last time Orlando hit the highway, Stan Van Gundy's team lost at the buzzer to Atlanta, 86-84 as one-point 'dogs. Orlando's defense continues to step up by limiting 13 of its past 14 opponents to below 100 points.
Dallas needs every game down the stretch if it wants to clinch the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The Mavs are already in the postseason, while sitting 4 ½ games ahead of the Spurs in the Southwest Division with eight games remaining. However, the gap from second to fifth is just 1 ½ games separating the Mavs, Jazz, Suns, and Nuggets.
Orlando fell at home to Dallas on February 19 with a 95-85 setback as seven-point 'chalk.' The Magic was limited to just 38 points in the second half after scoring 33 points in the opening quarter. The key numbers which ruined Orlando were the 4-25 (16%) shooting from beyond the arc and the 12 attempted free throws.
Blazers (45-29 SU, 40-32-2 ATS) at Nuggets (48-27 SU, 31-38-6 ATS)
These two Northwest Division rivals meet for the final time in the regular season as Denver looks to clinch the season series against Portland. The Nuggets are in a free-fall with losses in five of their last six games while the Blazers are hitting their stride by winning eight of nine.
On March 19, the Nuggets were 47-22 and held a four-game advantage over the Jazz in the division. In less than two weeks, Denver has dropped from the second seed in the West to second place in its own division, while the Jazz have leap-frogged the Nuggets. Denver will try to rebound after its offense has been downright offensive by being held to below 100 points in seven of the last eight contests. The Nuggets are 0-8-1 ATS the previous nine games with only three straight-up wins over the Wizards, Hornets, and Raptors.
For the exception of battling the Clippers on Saturday, the Nuggets face all opponents above .500 in the final five games of the season (Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, Grizzlies, and Suns). The Nuggets were hoping to avoid the Lakers until the Western Conference Finals, but there is a shot they could see the Champs in the second round (assuming they advance past the first round).
The Blazers obviously struggled when Brandon Roy was on the shelf for a month, but Portland has rebounded nicely with a 14-5 SU mark the last 19 games. The road has been kind to Nate McMillan's club, covering eight of the previous 12 away from the Rose Garden including victories at Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and Memphis.
The last SU/ATS road loss by the Blazers came at the Pepsi Center on March 3 in a 118-106 setback. Denver cruised to a cover as seven-point 'chalk,' while the 118 points allowed by Portland was tied for the most given up this season (Utah scored 118 on February 3). The Blazers and Nuggets split a pair of games at the Rose Garden earlier this season, while Denver has claimed three straight meetings at home in this series.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
Charlotte is creeping closer to its first-ever playoff berth, this coming off a 3-9 start to the season. Obviously the acquisition of Stephen Jackson the second week of the season energized this franchise, but Captain Jack wanted to go to an established playoff team at the time. What has Jackson done since coming to Charlotte? Only averaging a career-high 20.8 ppg, while leading the Bobcats to a 41-31 ATS mark.
It's amazing how many people thought the Heat could possibly miss the playoffs when the month of February ended. Miami was 29-31 and sitting in the ninth spot, but the Heat has won 11 of 14 to pull into the sixth position. Dwyane Wade and the Heat own the easiest schedule the rest of the way, playing all teams out of playoff contention. It hasn't been a bad investment to back the Heat as Miami is 8-4-1 ATS the last 13 games.
The Raptors were involved in a nosedive earlier this month, but Toronto is trying to claim the final playoff spot in the East. The Raps are 5-1 ATS the previous six games, including four straight covers on the road. Five of Toronto's final nine contests come against teams playing out the string, but the crucial showdown happens on April 11 at home versus Chicago. The Raptors own the season series, but seeing Toronto's track record this season, that could be the game that will determine who will lose to Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs.
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NBA TNT Doubleheader Preview
By RICKY DIMON
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks
March happiness
Orlando (52-22, 39-33-2 ATS) wrapped up the month of March with a 12-2 record (8-5-1 ATS) and took a 4.5-game lead over Atlanta in the Southeast Division.
The Magic scored 105.6 points per game in that span, shot 48.6 percent from the floor and limited opponents to 92.5 points per contest. Dwight Howard averaged 18.6 points, 13.3 rebounds and 2.4 blocks during the 14-game stretch.
But the Magic might have a tough time extending the hot play into April because of a recent rash of injuries. Shooting guard Vince Carter sprained his right big toe in a Sunday win over Denver and reserve forward Mickael Pietrus re-injured his left ankle last Wednesday against the Hawks. Starting point guard Jameer Nelson also got banged up in the last-second loss in Atlanta, jamming his right thumb.
All three players are expected to take the court on Thursday night, and only Carter is listed as questionable.
Keeping an edge
The Mavericks (49-25, 31-42-1 ATS) crushed Denver 109-93 at home on Monday and, like Orlando, they have also built a 4.5-game advantage in the standings (over San Antonio in the Southwest Division).
Don’t expect a late-season hiccup from what sounds like a focused group.
“I don't want us to feel comfortable,” coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. “I think that's a dangerous feeling to have. We need to keep an edge. I'm going to stay on these guys to keep fighting hard.”
Motivation should not be a problem. The Mavericks face a difficult final push, starting at Memphis on Wednesday and then at home against Orlando.
“In this West it's crazy,” explained Dirk Nowitzki said. “I mean the seeding is going to get all the way down to the last day of the season. I'm just going to play these last eight games like the playoffs are already here. The atmosphere was almost like it [against Denver], and whoever we're going to face we're going to adjust to that.”
Dallas is a stellar 26-11 at home this season, but just 9-27-1 ATS in those 37 contests.
Prior engagement
This season’s lone previous encounter between the Magic and Mavericks came on Feb. 19 in Orlando, where the visitors prevailed 95-85. The Mavs were 7-point underdogs and they played like it for three quarters, but a 30-16 fourth quarter stunned the crowd and ensured the upset.
Dallas recorded 23 assists and nine steals while the team saw five different players score in double-figures. Playing in his third game as a Maverick, newly-acquired center Brendan Haywood scored 15 points and pulled down nine rebounds.
Trending topics
The Magic are 4-0 ATS playing on three or more days of rest this season. The Mavericks are 10-7 (8-9 ATS) in the second of back-to-back games for their 2009-10 campaign.
Orlando (29-44-1 O/U) has been an outstanding under play this season, but Dallas (39-35 O/U) has leaned just slightly toward the over. Despite the latter trend, the under is 4-0 in the Mavericks’ past four games.
Head-to-head, the over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas.
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
Blazing hot
Portland (45-29, 40-32-2 ATS) has won three straight games, eight of its last nine and 11 of its last 13 heading into a Wednesday night home date with New York. The Blazers have surged ahead of San Antonio into the Western Conference’s seventh spot, comfortably in the playoffs (6.5 games ahead of ninth-place Memphis).
The recent recipe for success is a solid one—defense and veteran leadership. Portland has limited six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 100 points.
Marcus Camby has grabbed double-digit rebounds in five consecutive outings and six of his past eight, Juwan Howard has been providing valuable minutes off the bench and Andre Miller recently enjoyed a 26-point, four-assist, six-rebound performance in a 92-87 win over the Thunder on Sunday. Miller has scored in double-figures in 11 of his last 12 games.
Billups to the rescue?
The Nuggets (48-27, 31-38-6 ATS) have been going in the opposite direction. They have lost five of their last six (0-5-1 ATS) and now register behind Utah in the Northwest Division. Once on pace to be the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, Denver would be seeded fifth if the playoffs started today.
Enter Chauncey Billups, who said earlier this week that he is ready to provide the same kind of veteran leadership that Portland has been getting from its trio.
“I probably haven't been doing a good enough job of leading the team in game situations and even out of game situations, film sessions, stuff like that,” Billups told the Denver Post. “I probably haven't taken a big enough piece of the pie of the responsibility as probably I should have.”
Problems go far beyond that, however, ranging from selfish offense, to unenthused defense, to coach George Karl’s cancer-related absences, to Kenyon Martin’s woes (Martin has missed 14 straight games with a knee injury and is expected to return in mid-April).
“We just need to play basketball how the game is supposed to be played,” assured Arron Afflalo. “That's pretty much it. The past couple of games, we've had 15 or below assists.”
Prior engagements
Denver has won two of three meetings against Portland this season. As 7.5-point road underdogs on October 29, the Mavericks pulled out a 97-94 victory thanks to 41 points from Carmelo Anthony. The Blazers got revenge as 1-point home favorites on Christmas Day, prevailing 107-96.
Denver got its first shot against Portland at home on March 7 and took care of business 118-106 as a 7-point favorite. Anthony went for 30 points in that most recent contest and J.R. Smith added 22.
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The Blazers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four overall and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five against Western Conference opponents. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and a dismal 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Portland (39-35 O/U) has been a decent over player this season, but the under has just barely been the way to go with Denver (35-40 O/U). The under is 4-1 in Portland’s last five overall and 7-1 in Denver’s last eight overall.
Head-to-head, the under is 5-2 in the last seven encounters between the two teams. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against the Blazers.
Orlando (52-22, 39-33-2 ATS) at Dallas (50-25, 32-42-1 ATS)
Two teams looking to solidify their playoff positioning square off inside the American Airlines Center, where the Magic open a two-game Texas trip against the Mavericks.
Orlando has won two straight (0-1-1 ATS) and five of six overall (3-2-1 ATS) as it arrives in Texas for consecutive contests against the Mavs and Spurs. The Magic have been off since a 103-97 home win over the Nuggets on Sunday, pushing as six-point favorites. They saw a three-game SU and ATS road winning streak halted in their most recent roadie, falling 86-84 at Atlanta as a one-point pup.
Dallas has rattled off three consecutive wins (SU and ATS), including Wednesday’s 106-102 come-from-behind overtime win in Memphis, cashing as a 1½-point favorite after trailing by 13 points late in the fourth quarter. The Mavs scored a 109-93 win over Denver on Monday in their most recent home game, easily covering as five-point favorites. Still, even though they are 26-11 at home this season, the Mavericks are a horrendous 9-27-1 ATS.
In this series, Dallas has taken two in a row (SU and ATS) and six of the last seven (4-3 ATS), including a 95-85 win in Orlando on Feb. 19 as a seven-point underdog. The road team has won and cashed in each of the last four series clashes and is 10-1 ATS in the last 11, with Orlando cashing in five straight trips to Dallas.
The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after getting three or more days off, but they are on ATS skids of 3-7 on Thursday and 3-8 against Southwest Division squads. Dallas in 4-1 ATS in its last five contests on the second night of a back-to-back, but otherwise is on ATS slides of 5-26-1 at home, 0-4 against Eastern Conference teams and 2-6 at home against teams with winning road marks.
Dallas has topped the total in four straight after getting three or more days off, but it is on “under” streaks of 35-16-1 overall, 15-6 on Thursdays, 7-2 against Southwest Division teams and 35-15-1 against the Western Conference. Dallas has stayed below the posted number in eight of nine Thursday contests and four of five overall.
Finally, the over has cashed in eight of the last Magic-Mavericks battles overall, and the over is 5-0-1 in the last six matchups in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Portland (46-29, 41-32-2 ATS) at Denver (48-27, 31-38-6 ATS)
The surging Trail Blazers shoot for their fifth straight win as they trek to the Pepsi Center to take on the fading Nuggets.
Portland ran its SU and ATS winning streaks to four in a row with Wednesday’s 118-90 home win over the Knicks, cashing as an 11-point favorite. The Blazers have also won four of five on the highway (3-1-1 ATS), including back-to-back wins Saturday and Sunday at New Orleans and Oklahoma City, respectively. The Blazers have held their opponents to 98 points or less in seven of their last eight contests (6-1-1 ATS).
Denver finished a disastrous road trip at 1-4 (0-4-1 ATS) with Monday’s 109-93 loss in Dallas, coming nowhere near cashing as five-point ‘dogs. The Nuggets have dropped five of their last six games and gone 0-8-1 ATS in the last nine. The high-flying squad has only reached triple digits once in its last eight games, and that was a 109-104 loss in New York as seven-point favorites.
Denver has taken two of the three season clashes in this divisional rivalry (SU and ATS), including a 118-106 home win on March 7, cashing as a seven-point favorite. The host has won and covered in six of the last seven meetings going back to 2008, including three straight wins and covers by the Nuggets. In fact, Denver has dominated this series lately, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Colorado and 25-10-1 in the last 36 clashes overall.
Portland is on ATS surges of 4-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 7-3-1 as a road ‘dog and 39-17 on the second night of a back-to-back. Denver has cashed in its last six home games against teams with a winning road record, but they are on ATS skids of 0-6 as a favorite, 1-4 at home (all as a favorite) and 0-4-1 against teams with winning records.
The Blazers have topped the total in seven of nine on the road, nine of 13 on the second night of a back-to-back and 12 of 16 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but they are on “under” streaks of 7-2 as an underdog and 5-2 against teams with winning records. The Nuggets are on “under” runs of 7-1 overall, 5-0 as favorites and 5-2 against winning teams.
In this series, the under has hit in five of the last seven meetings overall, but the over is 12-5 in the last 17 played in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
NBA RoundUp For 4/1
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Mavericks - This line is OFF. With Dallas playing the second half of a back-to-back, though, and Dallas recently listed as a 7-point dog in Orlando, I would expect to see the Magic as a slight favorite on the road here. It's tough to know exactly who is going to get the public love with two hugely marquee teams going head to head like this. The Magic are probably the bigger draw, given that they are running out guys like Dwight Howard, but word is that Vince Carter might sit this game, so that could, in effect, move the line back closer to a pick. Interestingly, both of these teams are coming off wins over the Denver Nuggets, who host the Blazers in the next game on TNT. That wouldn't be quite so interesting, except that these teams are in different conferences, both played the Nuggets, then play each other here. The Mavericks have a game currently in progress against the Memphis Grizzlies, so I'll refrain from finishing this paragraph until that game is over, but here's my take on the impact of that game on this one. If the Mavericks play a tough one with the Grizzlies, the last shot of the game might dictate whether we have a lean in this TNT game. What I mean by that is that if Dallas loses a tough one, they may be inclined to really come back full tilt. If Dallas wins a tough one, they might suffer a bit of a letdown. If it's a Dallas blowout, beware Orlando. If it's a Grizzlies blowout, Dallas would have some value. The Mavericks have been playing strong basketball, and they even came up with a big home win over the Nuggets, but I really want to see how this team does against an opponent that plays defense, and one that isn't struggling like Denver. They beat Orlando by 10 on the road earlier this year, so they know they can compete, but will Orlando come back looking to even up the season series? In the middle of the season I'd definitely give Orlando some revenge edge points, but this late in the year, it's tough to think that Orlando is more concerned with revenging a loss than they are with getting healthy and getting ready for the playoffs. I happen to think it will be a supremely exciting game no matter which way it turns out. Let's finish this write-up after the Dallas game finishes up...(time elapses)...haha, well yikes to the end of that Dallas game. I really did take an hour break in here to see how the Dallas-Memphis game unfolded, and now, with overtime and a win and ATS victory in Dallas's corner, I am suddenly a fan of the Magic. Orlando is a solid road team, and Dallas is neither good nor bad on back-to-backs, but just 1-4-1 ATS when those back-to-back games go away-to-home. I lean Orlando. The total is intriguing, as Dallas seems to play to roughly the same totals when they're fatigued, allowing about 1.5 points more and scoring just a hair less. The last time these teams played, they finished with a total of 180, 25 points under the posted mark, and Orlando really plays something of an underrated defense. I'm curious to see where this line comes out, but I happen to think the Under should have a little value.
Blazers @ Nuggets - Denver by 4.5 with a total of 201.5. Boy, Denver has to be really in bad shape for this line to be this low. Considering Portland had a game with the Knicks late last night in Portland (a game Portland just dominated), and they're playing a back-to-back situation. We know how tough these can be for teams, even though Portland is one of the strongest back-to-back teams in the NBA (14-3 ATS). It's that stat that might eventually keep us off this game, along with a few situational angles that make this one a tough one. Denver will be playing its first game at home in quite some team, returning off a miserable 1-4 road trip SU, and a perfectly awful 0-4-1 goose-egg against the spread. In fact, going back to the homestand before the roadie, the Nuggets are losers of their last 8 ATS decisions, plus that one push. This is a team in complete disarray, and I just wonder if this line is the ultimate value spot for Denver -- since, by all accounts, this number indicates the Blazers are now better than Denver on a neutral court -- or if oddsmakers just realize that to get any money on Denver at all, they need to deflate the heck out of the line with Denver's recent struggles. We know Portland has been having a fine go of it lately, going 13-3 SU in their last 16 games, and posting a nice 5-1-1 ATS mark in their last 7 games. But (and this is a large "but"), despite all those situational and trend numbers, the Pepsi Center has not been kind to the Blazers. They lost there by 12 just a few weeks back, and Denver is 20-6 SU at home against the Blazers over the last decade-plus. Okay, so, first thing, with Portland beating New York into another dimension, this line should actually come down just a tiny bit more because of the public perception that life is just that easy for Portland. I happen to think that with Denver getting pummeled lately, oddsmakers would love to see this string of ATS losses come to an end. Few things hurt the books more than streaks, since folks that don't pay attention see a team that lost 5 in a row and figure they'll just fade them until they win, and that's where we are now with Denver, as they barely drew over 50% of the public's love despite getting 5 points in Dallas, and Portland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA. This might very well be that game where Denver wakes up and squeezes one out. I hate that I like the struggling team in a rather poor situational spot (first game home), but the value is ridiculous with the Nugs, and I can't ignore it - lean to Denver. The total is too low - Portland is playing some solid offensive basketball, and if Denver is going to win and cover, they're going to need to put up some points. Lean to the Over. Sort of a correlated "lean."
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Magic at Mavericks – The Magic are 8-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since March 05, 2005 on the road after a home win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Magic are 7-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since April 13, 2006 on the road when facing a non-conference team they lost to by double digits in their first match-up of the season. The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since March 17, 2009 at home when facing a non-conference team they beat on the road in their first match-up of the season. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since November 16, 2004 at home when they stole the ball from their opponent at least ten times in each of their last two games.
Trail Blazers at Nuggets – The Trail Blazers are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since April 16, 2008 on the road with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Trail Blazers are 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since April 08, 2002 as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a home win in which they had at least 12 steals. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since January 23, 2001 at home after a road loss against the Mavericks. The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since March 15, 2010 after a game in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.
Tips and Trends
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
Trail Blazers: Portland is attempting to stay out of the #8 spot in the Western Conference, and with their current form it's likely they will move up a few spots in the standings. The Blazers have won 9 of their past 11 games SU, and are only a half game behind Oklahoma City for the 6th spot in the West. Portland is 46-29 SU and 41-32-2 ATS overall this season. The Blazers are 21-16 SU and 23-12-2 in road games this seasons. Portland is 15-12 as the listed underdog this season. Portland continues to win with defense, as they've held 7 of their past 8 opponents under 100 PTS. The Blazers enter tonight with revenge on their minds, as they've already lost twice SU to Denver this season. The Blazers are 5th in the NBA in points allowed this season, only giving up 94.8 PPG this season. G Brandon Roy leads 3 current Blazers players averaging double figures in PTS this season, averaging 22.1 PPG. F LaMarcus Aldridge averages 17.5 PPG and a team high 8.1 RPG this season for Portland.
Blazers are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95
Nuggets (-4, O/U 201.5): Denver is playing bad basketball right now, there is no getting around it. The Nuggets have lost 5 of their last 6 games SU, and haven't won a game ATS over their past 9 games. Denver has struggled to score of late, as they've been held under 100 PTS in 7 of their past 9 contests. That offensive streak is pronounced considering the Nuggets average 106.9 PPG overall this season, the 3rd most in the NBA. The Nuggets are 48-27 SU and 31-38-6 ATS overall this season. The Nuggets are 30-6 SU and 17-18-1 in home games this season. With their recent SU demise, the Nuggets are now in 5th place in the Western Conference playoff standings. Less than a week ago the Nuggets were in 2nd place, and pushing the Lakers for the top spot in the West. It is becoming increasingly clear that the health of Coach Karl is taking its toll on the entire Nuggets team. 5 different Nuggets average double figures in PTS this season, led by F Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is averaging 28.6 PPG, the 3rd most in the NBA. Defensively, the Nuggets have allowed 6 of their past 9 opponents to score at least 102 PTS.
Nuggets are 6-0 ATS last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 7-1 last 8 overall.
Key Injuries - F Kenyon Martin (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97 (UNDER - Total of the Day)